Five questions: Los Angeles Angels
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-los-angeles-angels4/
1. Will Brandon Wood keep the third base job?
Brandon Wood能守三垒吗？
Brandon Wood put himself on the top prospect map five years ago, hitting 43
homers in the California League at age 20. It's been a long wait for both him
and his fans to see what he can do with regular big league playing time. He's
spent most of the past three years at Triple-A and has hit poorly in 236 big
league plate appearances. In his defense, his playing time was very sporadic;
his typical pattern was to sit for a full week, get one start, sit another
week, get an at-bat at the end of the game, etc.
Wood五年前就以20岁的年纪在 California League 打出43只HR
成为当时天使的最佳新秀了，而在他获得稳定的大联盟先发机会之前
他和他的球迷们也等待了很长的一段时间，迫不及待想知道会有什么样的表现
过去三年他几乎都在3A，而被短暂拉上大联盟的236个打席中也打的不怎么样
至于他在大联盟的守备机会也很少，常常是坐板凳一个礼拜，然后上场一天
然后再坐板凳一个礼拜，然后在球赛末段上来代打后守备，诸如此类
The big hole in his game has always been strikeouts, but he has made
tremendous progress in cutting down on those: Over the past four years in the
minors his strikeout rate has gone from 33 percent to 27, to 26, and finally
to 21 percent of his at-bats last season. Given a full opportunity, I think
he has improved to the point where he can keep his batting average above
.250. The downside to a shorter swing is that his power slipped a bit last
year as well, from 31 homers to 22 in about the same number of Triple-A
at-bats. On defense, all reports from Angels camp are good for the former
shortstop, and I arrived at a spring training game just in time to watch him
record all three outs in an inning.
In another organization, I could see the team telling him not to worry about
the strikeouts and just try to crush the ball. In that case, his upside would
be similar to Mark Reynolds in Arizona. That is not going to happen with the
Angels; manager Mike Scioscia will not tolerate that many strikeouts. A
better bet is a career that looks a bit like that of Joe Crede, who also put
himself on the prospect map at age 20 before stalling and getting three years
of Triple-A. Crede settled in as a .250/.300/.450 hitter before back problems
hurt his career. With some luck and better health, Wood can establish himself
at that level and develop a bit beyond that: .270/.330/.500 could be his peak
ability.
过去他吃了一堆三振，现在他有了很明显的进步：
过去四年他在小联盟的被三振率从33%→27%→26%→21%
借由给他足够的机会，我相信他能进步到打击率高于.250
而劣势在于他挥棒的动作让他丧失小幅度的power：HR从31降到22
至于他的防守，所有从天使获得的报告都指出将会比原本的SS好
而我也刚好在某一场春训的比赛中看到了他在同一局处理的三个出局数
如果是在其他球队，我可能会看到他们要求 Wood不要担心被三振，只要把球干出场就好
在这种情况下的话 Wood 长的好的话就会很像 响尾蛇的超大电风扇 Reynolds
不过在天使这种情况不会发生， 因为 Scioscia 无法忍受打者吃一堆三振
所以如果 Wood 长的好的话应该会比较像 Crede
而 Crede 刚好也是20岁成为球队的顶级新秀，也花了三年的时间在3A练功
在被背伤困扰前 Crede 是个.250/.300/.450的打者
在比较幸运(不是在响尾蛇)和比较健康的情况下
Wood 应该能成为比 Crede 还要好一点的打者，.270/.330/.500可能会是他的生涯年数据
2. Who will lead off?
谁将会打第一棒?
The Angels will miss Chone Figgins, his 101 walks and his 42 steals in the
leadoff role. There is nobody who will be as perfect for the leadoff spot on
the roster. Erick Aybar will get the first shot at the job. If Aybar can
repeat his excellent .312/.353/.423 season from last year, he will be a
perfectly acceptable, if not ideal, leadoff hitter. I'd love to see Aybar
keep the batting average and take 100 walks too. I'd also love to win the
lottery.
天使将会怀念去年第一棒 Figgins 的101次保送和42次盗垒
目前天使的阵容中没有比 Figgins 更适合打第一棒的人选，而现在表定的是 Aybar。
如果他能复制他去年的.312/.353/.423成绩，那将是令人满意-但并非最理想的-第一棒
我很乐于见到他保持同样的打击率并拿到100个保送，
同样的，我也很享受民乐透的感觉 [Aybar 生涯四个球季累积了54个保送]
I worry about Aybar trying to be Figgins and messing up his game. He's an
aggressive hitter, and needs to stay with the approach that got him to the
level of a starting major league shortstop. I know small sample size warnings
and the meaninglessness of spring training stats, but Aybar so far has taken
six walks (against 34 at-bats) and is hitting only .235. I hope he doesn't
mess himself up trying to be something he's not.
If Aybar can't handle the leadoff role, the best candidate on the team would
be Maicer Izturis, who is very similar to Figgins except he'd steal only a
half or a third as many bases. Izturis probably will get a lot of playing
time against right handers in any case, with Howie Kendrick and Wood
alternating days off. In the No. 2 spot the Angels have an excellent on-base
man in Bobby Abreu, so even if leadoff proves problematic, the middle of the
order will not starve for RBI opportunities.
我很担心 Aybar 为了能有和 Figgins 一样的表现而搞砸他自己的表现
他是个具有侵略性的打者，而且必须持续进步到大联盟游击手的平均水准
我知道那些春训的小样本、无意义的数据：34个打席中拿了6个保送，打击率仅.235
我希望他不要因为尝试扮演一个不属于他的角色而搞砸他自己的表现
如果 Aybar 无法扮演好第一棒的角色，那取代的人选将会是 Izturis
除了盗垒数较少(一半左右)以外，Izturis 和 Figgins 是很类似的球员
在 Kendrick 和 Wood 轮休的时候，他可能会在面对右投的时候打第一棒
因为第二棒是具有上垒能力的 Abreu，即使第一棒存在着不少问题
之后的棒次并不会缺乏打点的机会
3. Will the pitching be good enough to win another division championship?
投手群有好到能再次拿下分组冠军吗？
The Angels could have a top starting rotation if Ervin Santana and Scott
Kazmir put arm trouble behind them and regain their 2008 forms. Santana
struck out 214 against only 47 walks that year, and Kazmir struck out more
than a batter per inning each year from 2006 to 2008. Joel Pineiro doesn't
strike out anybody, but his groundball tendency will meet 2009's best infield
when it came to turning double plays. The Angels just have to hope he doesn't
turn into Carlos Silva (whose 2007 season with the Twins looks a lot like the
low strikeout/low walk/ground-balling season Pineiro just completed). Jered
Weaver's stuff has never suggested dominance, but he strikes out three for
every walk and has proven he can handle a major league starter's workload. As
such, he projects as one of the 30 best starters in the game. Joe Saunders
has not pitched as well as his 48-22 career record suggests but is a solid,
dependable pitcher who can keep you in the game.
如果 Santana 和 Kazmir 手臂没问题而且能重回到2008的表现的话
天使将会拥有顶级的先发轮值 [今天 Kazmir 刚被放进15-DL]
Santana 在08年丢了214个三振并只保送了47次
而 Kazmir 从06~08年每年平均每局三振超过1人
Pineiro 没丢多少三振，不过属于滚地球投手的他可以制造一堆双杀
但天使得祈求 Pineiro 别变成下一个 Silva (2007在双城是低三振低保送的滚地球投手)
即使 Weaver 称不上能宰制打者，但他每保送1人就能三振3人
而且他也证明了他能当一个称职的大联盟先发 (他被评估为前30的好投手之一)
虽然 Saunders 的投球内容并非像帐面上48W22L的生涯成绩那么好
但他能让你的队伍在比赛中保持竞争力，是个可以依赖的投手
The upside is two aces, a 15-game winner in Weaver, and two guys at the back
of the rotation around .500. But I can't predict pitcher health. Serious
injuries could mean subpar performance (like Santana last year up to August)
and more starts from Matt Palmer and youngsters Trevor Bell and Sean
O'Sullivan. A healthy staff should win the division, an injured one could
make 2010 a rebuilding year.
轮值优势在于有两个Ace、15W的 Weaver、以及两个胜率将近5成的投手
但我没办法预测他们是否能保持健康，伤势严重将严重影响球队表现
就像去年八月才回来的 Santana，期间由 Palmer、Bell、O'Sullivan 顶替
如果有健康的先发轮值将很有可能赢得分组冠军，
但如果是痛痛轮值的话2010很可能会变成重建期[有这么严重？]
4. Do the Angels have enough depth to survive injuries?
出现伤兵的话，板凳够深吗？
They have some depth, but not as much as in years past. Last year, after the
starting infield they had Izturis as a super sub, and if more than one
replacement was needed Wood and Sean Rodriguez were crushing the ball in
Triple-A. This year they can stand one infield injury or major slump without
losing too much production, but once Maicer is in the starting lineup, the
safety net is not there. Freddy Sandoval might be the next utility infielder;
he's a 27-year-old who makes decent contact and plays mostly first and third,
with a few games per year as an emergency second baseman.
深度还算有，但不像去年那么好
去年的内野板凳是很不错的 Izturis，而如果需要第二个人备用
天使还有 Wood 和 Rodriguez 正在3A屠杀
今年如果有一个人受伤或是低潮，天使还有人可以顶替使整体表现不会差太多
但是一旦 Maicer 上场，就代表天使能看的板凳全上了
27岁、便宜的 Sandoval 可能是下一个内野工具人(主要守1B、3B，紧急时可以顶2B)
In the outfield, Reggie Willits brings speed and hustle to the park, but has
absolutely no power in his bat. Terry Evans might make the team as a fifth
outfielder. He's now 28, has shown some speed and power in Triple-A but has
no idea of the strike zone. The Angels don't want either one playing
significant time in the outfield, but with the ages of Abreu (36), Torii
Hunter (34) and Hideki Matsui (36) they probably will be forced to.
Peter Bourjos could represent the best backup option in the outfield. The
23-year-old is unproven with the bat but has great speed and instincts as a
center fielder. If Bourjos develops quickly, he could change the whole makeup
of the team, hurting a bit at the plate but greatly improving the outfield
defense. I expect Bourjos to battle for a starting big league job in 2011,
possibly taking over a corner with Matsui leaving and Abreu sliding into the
DH role. (I don't expect him to move Hunter out of center even if he proves
to have more range.) Replacing Abreu's glove with that of Bourjos would save
the team about 30 runs, and I don't think that is an exaggeration at all.
外野(板凳)部分 Willits 是个有速度但是毫无power的腿姬
28岁的 Evans 将会是第五号外野手，在3A有速度、有power，但是不知道好球带在哪
天使一点也不想让这两名其中一名常常出现在外野
但是有着一群老外野手Abreu(36), Hunter(34), 松井(36)可能让他们不得不这么做
即使尚未证明他的打击能力，有着CF要求的速度和落点判断直觉
23岁的 Bourjos 可能是天使外野手最好的替代人选
如果 Bourjos 长的够快，即使他会小幅伤害打线，但他将大幅提升天使外野防守的实力
我认为 Bourjos 会在2011年取代松井离开的缺上MLB，而 Abreu 会去打DH
即便他的防守范围较大，我还是不认为他能取代 守CF的 Hunter
用 Bourjos 去取代 Abreu 的手套可以多守下约30分－这一点也不夸张
5. The Angels have beaten preseason projections regularly. Why is that?
天使为什么总能颠覆所有季前的战积预测？
They have done a few things right recently, and one is to score more runs
than you'd expect given their number of hits, walks and extra base hits. The
main reason is because they have hit so well with runners in scoring
position. I don't expect that to continue to such a degree, because I don't
understand why any player would become a better hitter just because of the
situation. If you have the ability to hit .320 when it really counts, why hit
only .280 when nobody is on base? You should be hitting your best all the
time so the guy behind you can hit with runners in scoring position.
天使达成了不少事，而其中一件是靠着安打、保送、和长打得到比你预期还多的分数
最主要的原因在于他们得点圈有人的打击非常棒
不过我不认为同样的表现他们能持续下去
因为我无法理解为何只在得点圈有人的情况下才打的特别好？
如果你有能力打.320，为何你要选择在垒上没有人的时候打.280？
每个打席你都应该尽你所能，这样你的下一个打者才会有得点圈打击的机会
Another reason they score a few more runs is aggressive base-running—the
Angels were far in the lead when it comes to going first to third or second
to home. I don't know if we can expect that to continue, looking at the
players. The Angels' best baserunner of the last half decade is now in
Seattle. Right now, the Angels have these players on the bases:
* Speedy: Erick Aybar
* Slightly above average: Kendrick, Izturis
* Old guys who are smart baserunners and can pick their spots: Abreu, Hunter
* Average speed: Wood
* Run well (for a catcher): Jeff Mathis, Mike Napoli
* God-awful slow and they know it: Matsui, Kendry Morales
* God-awful slow and runs into way too many outs: Juan Rivera
另一个理由是他们积极的跑垒让他们抢下更多的分数：
一支安打能让垒上跑者从1B上3B、或是2B回来得分的这部份天使遥遥领先全MLB
我不确定我们是否能期待今年有同样的情况发生
毕竟原本这五年里最好的跑者(Figgins)现在在水手队
下面是目前天使的跑者群：
* 快腿：Aybar
* 有着很不错的速度：Kendrick, Izturis
* 经验老到的：Abreu, Hunter
* 速度普普的：Wood
* (以捕手来说)速度算不错的：Mathis, Napoli
* 大家都知道跑很慢的：松井, Morales
* 跑很慢又会自杀的：Rivera
With that crew, I have a hard time seeing anything more than a slightly above
average base-running team. The 2010 Angels do have good power, all the way
down to Napoli, Kendrick and Wood in the last three spots, and will probably
play more station-to-station ball than Angels fans are used to seeing.
There is the matter of arranging their runs in such a way that they win more
games than you expect from runs scored and runs allowed. Some say that a team
with a well-leveraged bullpen can pull that off. That describes the 2008
Angels, who lost some real lopsided games, getting terrible mop-up relief.
But when the game was close, they could hand the ball to Francisco Rodriguez:
He set the single-season save record. Last season, the Angels beat their
Pythagorean record from the start of the season to the end, despite having an
absolutely horrible bullpen the first two months.
有着这群跑者，我很难想像他们还会属于速度略优于平均的队伍
2010的天使的打击火力更强大，7~9棒将会是Napoli, Kendrick 和 Wood
而且天使迷将会看到熟悉的蚕食分数的棒球 [不是很确定]
这就是天使如何抢分的方式
借由得到比预测更多分、失分比预测更少的方式，赢得比预测来的更多场的胜利
有人说破烂的牛棚不会让天使赢得更多场比赛，这点在2008年可以得证：
当年他们的火牛阵让他们在一些大比分差的比赛被惨电
不过当比数接近的时候，他们把球交给后来创下单季最多救援数纪录的K-Rod
[当时就算领先6、7分，负责做球的火牛们总是有办法让K-Rod上来赚救援点]
因为前两个月的火牛阵，让去年天使打破了开低走高的纪录
I don't expect some of these trends of the last few seasons to continue. To
win the division in 2010, the Angels will need to score about 100 runs more
than they allow. Chris Jaffe's recent book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers,
measures managers by five categories: individual hitters (do the hitters play
better or worse than their projections?), individual pitchers (same, but for
pitchers), Pythagenpat difference (winning more games than expected from runs
scored and allowed), team offense (getting more runs than expected from a
combination of walks, hits, homers, steals, etc.) and team defense (allowing
fewer based on those inputs). Believe it or not, Scioscia was about dead
average in Pythagenpat (the book used only data through 2006. Scioscia's best
rating was individual pitchers, +214 runs or about 30 per season.
我不认为这些过去几季的现象会都持续下去
天使得得更多的分数，至少要比他们掉分多100分以上才有机会赢得2010美西冠军
在 Chris Jaffe 的 "Evaluating Baseball's Managers" 一书中，将管理分成五大类：
打者个人表现：打者们打的比预期好还是差？
投手个人表现：投手们投的比预期好还是差？
Pythagenpat差异：由得更多分、失更少分以赢得比预期来的更多的胜利？
团队打击表现：团队整体是否借由保送、安打、全垒打、盗垒等方式得到更多分？
团队投手表现：能让对手更少上垒？
信不信由你，Scioscia 最差的部分就是 Pythagenpat[这字实在不会翻 冏]。
该书的数据记载到2006，而 Scioscia 最好的部分是投手个人表现
[+214 runs or about 30 per season这部份不晓得是什么数据]
I don't know if that trend will continue, but it makes sense. Scioscia may be
better than most at getting a pitcher out before he runs out of gas, even if
it makes him unpopular (think of John Lackey's final walk from an Angels
mound in the ALCS). He never overworks his pitchers, rarely allowing any to
throw 120 pitches, and, according to Jaffe, has never had a starting pitcher
throw 225 innings.
As a defensive-minded catcher himself, Scioscia is very tough on his
catchers, and if they fall into bad habits with their game-calling or
receiving he does not hesitate to pull a .500 slugging bat from the lineup
and insert a career .200 hitter. I don't know how much of an effect catcher
game-calling can have, but I'm willing to consider that Scioscia does.
我不确定这种趋势是否会持续下去，不过这很合理
即使这会让他不受欢迎，Scioscia 或许在判断投手是否快没力的方面是很厉害的
想想去年 Lackey 去年ALCS下丘的情况
[当时 Lackey 在说瞎要换投的时候说了两次this (game) is mine后一脸臭脸被换下去]
他不操他的投手，极少让投手投超过120球，且从不让投手整季投超过225局
曾经身为以防守为主的捕手，Scioscia 对捕手们非常严格
如果他们出现了坏习惯[game-calling or receiving 不知道是哪种习惯]
Scioscia会毫不犹豫的把.500的大棒子换下去，然后把生涯.200的烂棒子换上来
我不晓得这种习惯会造成多大的影响，不过我相信 Scioscia 这部份的作为
References: Baseball-reference.com, Evaluating Baseball's Managers
首次翻译，有错请指教:p