http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-florida-marlins6/
by Bryan Donovan
March 29, 2010
1. Will Ricky Nolasco bounce back from his awful 2009?
Ricky Nolasco会从他糟糕的09球季中反弹吗？
There is an argument that questions whether 2009 was all that awful in the
first place for Ricky Nolasco. All the major defense-independent pitching
statistics were very happy with his performance last season. He struck out 25
percent of non-IBB batters last season and walked just 4.8 percent of those
batters. Those rates led to a sparkling 20.3 percent K-BB differential, good
for fifth in baseball among qualified starters. For context, Nolasco ended up
a smidge behind Dan Haren and Zack Greinke and a bit ahead of such luminaries
as Jon Lester and Roy Halladay.
首先，Nolasco的09球季是否那么糟就颇受争议。所有主要投手独立（去除防守影响）数据
反映出他去年的表现相当令人满意。他三振了25%非故意四坏的打者，并且只保送了其中
的4%。这些数据造就了亮眼的20.3%K-BB差（译按：不知怎么算的？BB/K=44/195=22.6%）
在所有达到规定局数投手中是第五好的。只稍微落后给Haren和Greinke，并且还略为领先
Lester和Halladay等一流投手。
Nolasco’s main issues that led him to post an ERA north of 9.00 at the start
of the season were an out-of-line BABIP and strand rate. Even after returning
to his prime form after a short stint in Triple-A, Nolasco still ended the
season with a .336 BABIP and a 61.0 percent strand rate, figures well off the
league average. While there is concern that those rates may have something to
do with his poor performances out of the stretch as opposed to the windup,
the 2009 season stretched that theory to an extreme. With even moderate
regression to the mean, Nolasco should revert to a performance closer to his
2008 season. Both CHONE and ZiPS have him posting FIP of around 3.65, and if
he approaches an innings count similar to that of 2008 or 2009, that should
be worth close to four wins for the Marlins.
Nolasco季初超过9.00的自责分率主要肇因于离谱的BABIP与残垒率。即使他从3A回来后找
回了自己的身手，还是在季末留下远超出联盟平均的.336BABIP和61.0%残垒率。只要这些
数据可以回复合理水准，Nolasco应该可以交出接近08球季水准的表现。CHONE和ZiPS两个
系统计算他的FIP都在3.65左右。如果他能贡献与08、09球季接近的局数，应该可以为球队
多拿4胜。
2. What can we expect from Gaby Sanchez?
我们可以从Gaby Sanchez身上期待些什么？
Gaby Sanchez knows he is simply holding down the fort for top prospect Logan
Morrison, expected to arrive by 2011 at earliest. However, with Morrison
struggling in Spring Training this month, Sanchez has at least wrapped up a
job for this season. Drafted in 2005 as a catcher out of the University of
Miami, Sanchez was transitioned to first base in the minors, where his
line-drive bat plays less impressively. Still, his minor league track record
has been solid; Sanchez has batted .302/.392/.485 in his minor league career,
including an impressive .314/.404/.513 season in 2008 that earned him a
Southern League MVP award.
Sanchez知道自己的地位正在被球队的顶级新秀Morrison威胁当中，最快可能2011球季就会
被取代。然而，Morrison在春训中挣扎的表现让Sanchez至少在本季可以保留他的工作。05
年以捕手身份被马林鱼选中的Sanchez，在小联盟中移防到一垒的位置。他在小联盟的生涯
成绩是出色的.302/.392/.485，包括08球季足以赢得南方联盟MVP的.314/.404/.513表现。
The primary concern with Sanchez has always been whether his bat would
suffice while playing first base in the majors. To overcome a positional
adjustment between –10 to –12.5 runs per 162 games at first base, a first
baseman would have to post a .352 wOBA (along with an average glove) to be
considered an average player. The major prognostication systems are split on
his ability to do this in 2010. CHONE projects a .348 wOBA that would be
right around average for a first baseman, while ZiPS and PECOTA are a little
less optimistic, projecting him closer to the league average hitter. Sanchez
has always shown good discipline (minor league career unintentional BB% of
11.7 percent) and contact (career K% of 12.0 percent) at the plate, but with
only decent power (career ISO of .185), can he survive playing at the most
offensively demanding position? The Marlins are hoping he can answer that
question affirmatively in 2010.
Sanchez主要的问题在于他的棒子是否符合大联盟一垒手的水准。他必须克服守备位置的
调整以符合大联盟一垒手平均水准的标准（.352 wOBA与平均水准的守备）。几个主要的预
测系统包括CHONE预测的.348 wOBA接近一垒手的平均标准，但较不乐观的ZiPS和PECOTA预
测他比较接近联盟平均打者的水准。Sanchez的选球（扣除IBB后，BB/PA=11.7%）与打击技
巧（K/AB=12.0%）是一向表现出色的，但他的砲管只能还算OK（IsoP=.185），他可以在最
需要火力支援的守位生存吗？马林鱼希望他能在10球季给予肯定的答复。
3. Which veteran retread relievers will find success in the Marlins bullpen
this year?
哪一位老将会在马林鱼牛棚东山再起？
It seems like every season, the Marlins bring in junkyard relief arms into
their bullpen, throw them into important roles during the season, and watch
them flourish for the team. Last year, the Marlins picked up a slew of
successful retreads, from bullpen ace Kiko Calero (1.95 ERA, 2.06 FIP) to
set-up men Dan Meyer (3.06 ERA, 3.87 FIP) and Brian Sanches (2.56 ERA, 4.14
FIP). While the midseason addition of Luis Ayala flopped (he made 10
appearances and gave up 10 runs on his way back to the minors), Brendan
Donnelly’s sub-2.00 ERA and 2.82 FIP shined in 25 innings.
就像过去的每个球季一样，马林鱼总会做好资源回收再利用，让几个没人要的投手担任牛
棚要角，并且为球队贡献良多。去年就有不少成功的例子：牛棚王牌Calero（1.95 ERA,
2.06 FIP）、布局投手Meyer（3.06 ERA, 3.87 FIP）与Sanches（2.56 ERA, 4.14 FIP)
。还有季中加入的却相当失败的Ayala（回小联盟前，十场出赛掉十分），Donnelly则是在
25局的投球中缴出不到2的ERA与2.82的FIP。
The Marlins once again looked to employ this strategy this season, as the
team invited a plethora of fireballing veteran relievers such as Jose Veras,
Mike MacDougal, Derrick Turnbow, and Seth McClung to Spring Training to try
out for the team. Only one will make the roster, as Veras has impressed
enough to win a seventh-inning role, while the others have been or will soon
be released. Veras racks up a lot of strikeouts and walks, a quality akin to
many other Marlins relievers. The key to his success, along with the entire
bullpen’s, is to limit home runs. Unfortunately, the team has only one
reliever who has induced more ground balls than fly balls in his career
(Burke Badenhop), meaning fans will once again be crossing their fingers
every time a fly ball goes up in the late innings. With the team’s bullpen
BABIP and strand rates abnormally low last season and much of the 2009
bullpen returning to familiar roles in 2010, regression would call for a
decreased performance. Then again, we’ve seen strange bullpen success before
from Florida, so it would not be surprising if it happened again.
尝到甜头的马林鱼期待本季也能重施故技，春训时便邀请了一干老牌火球男包括Veras、
MacDougal、Turnbow与McClung。其中只有Veras靠着春训时的好表现赢得第七局投手的
角色，其他人则很快就被释出。Veras擅长制造大量的三振与四坏球，具备与马林鱼牛棚
中其他投手相似的特质。包括Veras在内，整个牛棚成败的关键便在于限制全垒打出现的
数目。不幸的是，全队只有一名滚地球型的后援投手（Badenhop），代表球迷常常在比赛
后段出现飞球时祈祷一番。有鉴于去年好得不像话的BABIP与残垒率，牛棚的原班人马恐怕
在今年的表现会下修不少。然而我们一再地见证了马林鱼牛棚过去不可思议的成功，所以
就算再次发生也无须惊讶。
4. When am I going to see Mike Stanton?
我们什么时候可以见到Mike Stanton？
Mike Stanton is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and the power
and performance in Spring Training have all been very promising. But let’s
get one thing straight: Stanton is not in the same boat as Atlanta Braves
prospect Jason Heyward. Heyward has succeeded at every level in his short
time in the minors, and while Stanton has been no slouch, he did stumble a
bit in the move to Double-A in the middle of last season.
Stanton是棒球界最顶尖的新秀之一，他的力量与春训的表现相当令人期待。但我们讲白
点：Stanton并不如Jason Heyward那般优秀。Heyward短暂的农场生涯中在每个等级都取
得成功，虽然Stanton没遇到什么大挫折，但他去年季中升到2A后的表现却有点踢到铁板。
While Stanton may have the ridiculous upside that a high-power prospect can
bring, he also brings considerable risk. In his minor league career, Stanton
has shown a penchant for the strikeout, striking out in 27.7 percent of his
minor league PAs so far in his career. If those strikeout rates continue,
Stanton might have a difficult time establishing enough contact in the majors
to take advantage of his absurd power tool. Stanton could maintain his OBP in
the majors with a halfway decent walk rate (career minor-league uintentional
BB% of 9.9 percent), but contact will ultimately determine whether he becomes
a hitter like Russell Branyan, a career part-timer with the strikeout stigma,
or a consistent star like Ryan Howard. Stanton’s defense in the outfield is
positive enough that it should guarantee him decent playing time and solid
contributions for the Marlins for the next few years.
虽然Stanton强大的力量拥有无限的发展可能，但同时也伴随着必须考量的风险。在他的小
联盟生涯中，有电风扇倾向的Stanton有高达27.7%的打数遭到三振。如果这样的三振率持
续下去，Stanton可能需要一段苦日子才能在大联盟发展出足以发挥自己暴力长打的打击技
巧。Stanton或许可以靠着差强人意的保送率（小联盟BB/AB=9.9%）在大联盟维持上垒率，
但打击技巧会决定他会成为哪一种打者：生涯受三振所苦而只能跑龙套的Russell Branyan
或是持续成功的明星球员Ryan Howard。Stanton在外野的防守功夫则足以保证他的上场时
间，并且在未来几年都能为球队做出坚实的贡献。
That sort of production will probably not happen this year, though. The
Marlins have four additional fringe outfielders at higher minor league levels
than Stanton, and while none of them are impressive for the long-term, they
are capable of holding a major league job temporarily. In case injury or
ineffectiveness plague Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, or Cody Ross, one of
Brett Carroll, Scott Cousins, Bryan Petersen, or Jai Miller will take over
for the Marlins. Stanton should receive a full season of development in
Double-A this year and a cup of coffee in September, but something would have
to go terribly wrong for the team to call him up for serious playing time
during the season.
他的产能或许在今年还不会出现。马林鱼拥有四位在农场层级高于Stanton的外野手，但没
有一位能让人留下长期的印象，只能短暂的上大联盟观光。除非有人受伤或是Coghlan、
Maybin与Ross表现不彰，Carroll、Cousins、Petersen或Miller之中一人才能取而代之。
Stanton将会拥有一个完整的2A球季好好发展，并在九月时上来喝杯咖啡，除非季中球队出
现了可怕的乱流，才有可能提前让他升格扛下重责大任。
5. Where will the Marlins finish in the NL East?
马林鱼季末时在国联东区的排名如何？
The NL East is as tough a division as you will find in the National League.
Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are very close to the
division crown according to the major prognostication systems. The New York
Mets need health and some good bounces, but they are not terribly far from
competing. Only the Washington Nationals appear out of range of the top two
division spots.
国联东区在国家联盟中是情势险峻的分区。费城人与勇士同时被预测为非常接近分区龙头
桂冠的两只球队。梅子则需要健康与一些正面的反弹，但是他们离竞争者的行列并不远。
只有国民显然地顶多只能争分区老三。
The Marlins likely lie somewhere in between the Braves and Nationals in terms
of true talent. The projections have the team somewhere between 78 and 82
wins, with most sitting comfortably a bit below .500. My own personal guess
puts them at 83 wins, about even to their true talent level as calculated by
WAR last season. The team is guaranteed another excellent year from superstar
Hanley Ramirez and solid campaigns from its pitching duo of Josh Johnson and
Nolasco. The question marks lie in the bullpen, with new faces taking on
significant roles and regression likely rearing its ugly head, and the back
of the rotation. The last three starters do not invoke much in the way of
confidence, as each of Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, and former San Diego
Padre Clay Hensley have their own potentially crippling issues to work out in
the regular season (injury, home runs, and not pitching effectively in the
majors since 2006, respectively). The offense remains promising, with
Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Coghlan leading the way, but will Gaby Sanchez and
Cameron Maybin contribute positively this season after both flopped as
favorites entering 2009?
马林鱼真正的才能大致位于勇士与国民之间。胜场的落点分析介于78到82胜之间，略低于
五成胜率。我个人根据去年WAR的计算，猜测他们可以拿到83胜。这只球队实力的保证来自
于缴出另一个非常优秀球季的超级巨星Hanley Ramirez，以及投手阵中的Josh Johnson与
Nolasco。问题在于他们牛棚中担任重要角色的新面孔，以及后段轮值。无法给人足够信任
的后三号先发投手包括Sanchez（受伤）、Volstad（受易全垒打砲轰）与前教士的Hensley
（06年后就没能投出效能的表现）都有他们各自的潜在问题。Ramirez、Uggla和开路先锋
Coghlan领军的打线还是令人期待，但Sanchez和Maybin能够同时从不甚成功的09球季中振
起，在今年提供正面的贡献吗？
Unfortunately, those questions will have to be answered in the fire of the
regular season as opposed to on paper. The Marlins should get enough
contributions from their youngest players and newest bullpen faces to eke out
83 wins. With a few lucky bounces and surprising performances (something the
Marlins have been known for in the last few seasons), contention for the Wild
Card is not out of the question.
不幸地，这些问题都要等球季正式开火后而非纸上谈兵可以解答。马林鱼必须从他们最年
轻的球员与牛棚的新进成员中取得让他们足以赢得超过83胜的贡献。加上一些幸运的反弹
与惊奇的表现（就像马林鱼过去几季所广为人知的），外卡的竞争并非遥不可及。