2010 Five questions: Baltimore Orioles
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-chicago-cubs3/
Do they still play the blues in Chicago
When baseball season rolls around
When the snow melts away,
Do the Cubbies still play
In their ivy-covered burial ground
—"A Dying Cubs Fan's Last Request," Steve Goodman recording, 1983
当球季开始时...他们仍旧在芝加哥演奏著蓝调吗 ?
当冰雪融化时...小熊们仍旧在他们被常春藤覆蓋著的球场上吗 ?
"一个将死的小熊迷最后的要求" Steve Goodman, 1983
Steve Goodman, a Chicago songwriter, performer and Cubs fan, died of leukemia
a year later. Being only 36 years old, he never had seen the Cubs in the
World Series. Had he lived to collect Social Security at 62, he still
wouldn't have.
Steve Goodman, 一个芝加哥的作曲家, 演奏家以及小熊迷. 在一年后因为白血病过世.
在他36岁的生命里, 他从来没能看到小熊打进世界大赛.而即使他活到62岁，他还是没
机会看到。
Again this season, the snow will melt, the ivy will grow and the Cubbies will
play. Will their fans more often sing the blues, or another of Goodman's
compositions, "Go, Cubs, Go," as is their ritual after a home victory? Those
are the questions, along with these:
再一次的.这个球季. 冰雪仍旧会溶化. 常春藤仍旧会生长. 小熊们仍旧会继续打球. 他
们的球迷会继续唱着蓝调(表现忧郁)或是另一首 Steve Goodman 的曲子,当小熊胜利时唱
的 "Go Cubs Go"呢 ? 这要看下面的五个问题怎么解决.
Will Sori still be sorry?
索爷会继续唱sorry sorry 吗 ?
Lured by the promise of a major league baseball game, nearly 40,000 people
turned out at Wrigley Field last May 5 to see the Cubs play the Giants. This
is the starting lineup the Cubs put on the field:
被大联盟球赛所诱惑的将近40000名球迷们再去年五月五号进入 Wrigley Field 观赏小熊
对抗巨人的比赛. 以下是先发名单.
Joey Gathright CF
Aaron Miles SS
Kosuke Fukudome RF
Derrek Lee 1B
Micah Hoffpauir LF
Mike Fontenot 2B
Bobby Scales 2B
Koyie Hill C
Sean Marshall P
You think the 16-seeds in the NCAA basketball tournament are automatic outs?
Take a look at that batting order. Big surprise: The Cubs lost. Two runs,
five hits, 10 strikeouts.
The Cubs, traditionally built to bop in their supposedly hitter-friendly
ballpark, were awful at the plate last year. Too many at-bats went to the
too-many Mario Mendoza-types on the team.
你会觉得NCAA 联赛的第16种子会直接被淘汰吗 ? 先来看看这分打击顺序。令人惊讶的。
小熊输了。五安打，得两分，吃了10 K. 小熊在对打者有利的球场，去年在打击区的表现
糟透了。球队里太多的打席表现得像 Mario Mendoza(低于Avg)。
Alfonso Soriano was hurt and didn't hit. Geovany Soto was fat and didn't hit.
Milton Bradley was pouting and didn't hit. Fukudome was helpless against
left-handers. Fontenot was helpless against everybody. Aramis Ramirez was
hurt early in the season. Lee was awful early in the season. And those were
the good hitters.
When it was all over, the team that had scored 855 runs in winning the
National League Central in 2008 had scored 707. I'll do the math: That's
nearly one run fewer per game.
索爷受伤了打不好，SOTO太胖了打不好，爱俏嘴巴的 Bradley 打不好，福留孝介对左投
一筹莫展，Fontenot 对每个人都一筹莫展，拉米在季初受了伤，阿李在季初打得烂透了
，而这些都是球队中的好打者。
当一切结束后，在2008年打了855分进帐的国联中区冠军在去年只打了707分进来。让我算
个数学: 那表示几乎每一场少了一分。
If there was one key to this general breakdown, it was Soriano, the Cubs' $18
million-a-year man they're stuck with through 2014, when he'll be 38. He
looked like a very old 33 last season, when he played in just 117 games, hit
.241/.303/.423 and played deplorable defense in left field. The year before,
he'd gotten into just 109 games.
如果要说这里面有什么重要的关键，那会是索爷，小熊队年薪1800万，合约走到2014年的
人，那时他已经38岁了。而他在去年看起来像个老化的33岁球员。
当他只出赛了117场，却只有 .241/.303/.423 这鸟成绩并提供了左外野糟透了的防守。
而前一年，他只出赛了109场。
There were brief flashes of the old Sori last season. He got hot in July, and
the Cubs had an 18-9 month, by far their best. The rest of the year, he was a
.219 hitter, and the Cubs looked every bit of the weak-hitting, 83-win team
they were.
Soriano's 40-plus steals days are long gone (he didn't break into double
digits in 2009). Though he's a right-handed hitter, he's a liability against
lefties these days. (His lifetime .863 OPS against left-handed pitching fell
to .569 last season.)
上个球季索爷是有短暂的回光返照过，他有火热的七月，而小熊在那个月分赢了18场输了
9场，目前为止他们最好的一次。剩下的场次，他只是个.219的打者，而小熊指望着每一
个微弱的打击，让他们赢了83场。
索爷的每年40+盗垒已经是很久以前的事了，(2009年根本没超过两位数)。尽管是个右打
者，在以前日子里他是个可靠的对付左投的打者。(生涯对左投的OPS从.863 降到去年的
.569)。
He often looks terrible no matter which hand the pitcher uses. A recent
SI.com column by Tom Verducci showed that Ryan Howard sees breaking balls on
39.7 percent of the pitches he sees, the most in the majors. Next: Soriano,
at 39.6. That pretty much explains why Soriano strikes out more than one time
in every five plate appearances. Anyone who's seen Soriano going after a low
outside slider the past couple of years is put in mind of a golfer trying to
rescue his Titleist from a pond by flailing with a nine-iron. It's neither
pretty nor effective.
他现在不管是对付哪一只手投球的投手看起来都很糟。一个近期Tom Verducci的 SI.com
专栏写出 Ryan Howard 会看到39.7% 的变化球，联盟最多的。下一个: 索爷 39.6%。
(引用Z大的翻译法做个修改..^^\)
这大部分的解释了为什么在每五个打席就会被三振一次以上。每一个在过去几年看过索爷
打外角低滑球的人都会记得那像是个高尔夫打者试着去避免把球打进水池而乱挥球竿的动
作。那既不优雅也不有效。
So, is there any chance that Soriano can be the key to the Cubs offense again?
It won't be from the leadoff spot he held—amid considerable debate—until
midway through last season. Manager Lou Piniella says he'll bat him sixth,
putting a positive spin on it by calling sixth a good RBI spot. Generally,
though, that's not where a manager puts his best or second-best or third-best
hitter.
The hope is that a new hitting coach can make the difference in the offense,
in Soriano particularly. The Cubs' struggles last year cost two hitting
coaches their jobs. Now they've hired Rudy Jaramillo, who built a reputation
for success while doing that job for 15 years for the Texas Rangers. Can that
help? Well, the two seasons Soriano worked with Jaramillo at Texas were good
ones for him—but not as good as the two preceding (with the Yankees) or the
two following (with Washington and the Cubs).
所以，索爷仍然有任何的机会会是小熊的攻击关键吗?
经过上个赛季仔细的考量过，索爷不会再被摆到第一棒。老皮说我要把他摆在第六棒，让
他可以提供打点。通常来说，一个不是摆最好，也不是次好，更不是第三好的打者的位置
。
唯一的希望放在新来的打击教练上，希望他能改变些什么。尤其是索爷。小熊上一季的惨
状消耗掉了他们两名投手教练。这次他们雇来了 Rudy Jaramillo，一个在游骑兵做了15
年并在那建立起自己的声望的人。 那会有帮助吗? Well, 当索爷在游骑兵时的那两年表现
得不错， 但仍不及在洋基的那两年以及之后在国民及小熊的两年。
Does 25 minus one equal more wins?
Sabermatricians don't look kindly on old-school general managers like Jim
Hendry, who likes scouts better than numbers. But last year's big
acquisition, which looked good on the on-base percentage charts, was a
disaster. Bradley, who wore out his welcome in seven cities in one decade—
surely a major league record—outdid himself in Chicago. He was persona non
Wrigley pretty much from Opening Day, by some reports as much so with his
teammates as with the fans.
Fairly or not, the Cubs' sour season got pinned heavily on Bradley's sour
personality. The fact that he had his worst season (OPS+ 99) since 2002
didn't help, either. He was supposed to be the last piece needed to take the
Cubs to serious World Series contention, but instead became the scapegoat for
the disappointing offense.
Now he's gone; the Cubs traded bad contracts with Seattle, picked up $6
million in the deal, and used the proceeds to pick up new parts.
Trying to reverse the bad karma Bradley left, the team is offering a last
major league lifeline to 38-year-old Kevin Millar, not for his .231-.233
batting averages of the past two seasons, but because he's supposed to have a
nice personality.
Take that, number-crunchers!
25少1个球员会带来更多的胜利吗 ?
分析员并不看好经理Jim Hendry，一个重视球探过于数据的经理。而上个球季的大交易里
，一个看似有不错的上垒率的家伙，却是个大灾难。
Bradley，一个在过去十年待过七个城市的家伙，显然是个联盟纪录，希望自己在芝加哥
有比过去好的表现。
而从开幕战以后却有许多的报告说他是个假惺惺的人，来自于球迷以及一些队友。
不论公平与否，小熊的这个酸酸的赛季被Bradley 酸酸的个性钉住。事实上是他拥有一个
最糟糕的球季。(OPS+ 99)
他应该是小熊需要打进世界大赛的最后一块拼图。而不是一个令人失望的打线的代罪羔羊
。
现在他不见了。小熊换了个烂约加了点现金进来，并用来选些新人。
为了试图去扭转恶运，小熊丢出了DL并换来了快到球员生涯尾声的 Kevin Millar，不是
因为他的.231-.233 打击率，而是因为他的好个性。拿下他吧，没钱花的小熊。
The pitching: half full or half empty?
Here's the optimistic take: Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and
Randy Wells make up a solid, proven top four in the rotation, and there are
at least four credible contenders for No. 5 and for stepping in during the
inevitable emergencies. Carlos Marmol, as feared a pitcher as there is, will
be the closer from Opening Day.
投手轮值: 半满还是空一半 ?
以下是前四个先发: Lilly, 大Z, 蛋皮, 以及Randy Wells。他们组成了一个坚强，已证
明过的前四号轮值。另外还有至少四个有些实绩的竞争者可以争取第五号先发。马毛，有
点令
人担心的，将会从开幕战开始做为球队的closer。
Here are the "buts" from a guy who's seen a lot of optimism evaporate over a
lifetime of Cubs-watching:
而这里是些"Buts"，来自一个看了很久的小熊的人所提出的观点
* Lilly, the team's most consistent pitcher over three fine seasons in
Chicago, is out until at least late April. How often does a starting pitcher
come back before his "at least" date? And it's not reasonable to expect that
a 34-year-old pitcher will snap back to 145 ERA+ effectiveness right after
returning from surgery.
Lilly-球队里最稳定的投手，投了3个很不错的球季，但会在四月底才回到轮值。我们会
有多常看到一个先发投手会在他的 least date 前回来 ? 另外，奢望一个34岁从手术后
回来的投手还能有145 ERA+ 的效率是有点不切实际的。
* It'll be another year of Carlos being Carlos, the maddeningly
inconsistent drama king.
大Z- 又是一年大Z之所以为大Z，那个令人发狂不稳定的剧场之王。
* Wells had a fine rookie season. What that means for 2010 is that Wells
had a fine rookie season. (See Soto, Geovany.)
Wells- 他有个不错的菜鸟球季，也说明了他在2010是他的第一个完整的菜鸟球季(看看
Soto吧)
* Marmol (with apologies to Mitch Williams, call him "The Extremely Wild
Thing") is feared in equal parts for throwing very difficult pitches to hit
(11.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season) and for not knowing where
those pitches are going (7.9 BB/9 and 12 hit batters in 74 innings). Ouch!
马毛- (先对Mitch Williams道个歉，说他是个"极度狂野的东西")他可以用力的丢出难打
的球，(K/9 = 11.3)，也可以用力的丢出不知道会去哪的球(BB/9 = 7.9)，Ouch!!!
* The depth isn't as deep as it looks. The Cubs let Rich Harden walk; he
was an injury waiting to happen, but when he was good, he was very, very
unhittable. Carlos Silva, the consolation prize in the Bradley deal, was bad
even when he was good, and that was several seasons ago. Tom Gorzelanny once
was the ace of the Pirates, but (insert your own tallest-midget-in-the-circus
simile here). Jeff Samardzija has yet to show why he chose baseball over the
NFL. Solid lefty Marshall seems a better fit for the bullpen than the
rotation: Last season, he lasted just five innings per start, with an earned
run average two runs higher than for his relief appearances. And promising
eighth-inning man Angel Guzman is out, perhaps forever, with a bum shoulder.
板凳深度- 并没有他看起来的那么深，小熊让小蜜蜂走路了，一个有伤等待着回来的选手
，但当他没有伤痛时，他是个非常，非常难被打击出去的选手。Silva，DL交易中的安慰
奖，即使在他状况好时也有点逊，而那已经是好几个球季前的事了。Tom Gorzelanny曾是
海盗的 Ace，但是......(侏儒园里最高的侏儒仍旧是侏儒)。
(译按:感谢版友的推文指正)。
Jeff Samardzija 还没有显示出为什么他选择了MLB而不是NFL。
Marshall 似乎放在牛棚会比放在轮值里好用。上个球季他每次先发都只投了五局，比他
上场救援时多了一到两分的自责分。
而被允诺的第八局投手已经掰了，Guzman 或许将会永远的与无用的手臂为伍吧。
It could all come together. But.
这些事或许通通可以解决。但是.......。
So, are they going to be any better this year?
所以，他们今年会比较好吗 ?
Reports out of spring training say Soriano's got his old swing back and
Soto's got his old shape back. If just one of those things is true, it'll
make a big difference. But—and here's the skepticism born of experience again
—you may know that they're not the first two players in major league history
to inspire preseason optimism. Sun in March will do that.
来自春训的报告说索爷找回了他以前的挥棒，Soto找回了他以前的身材。只要有一项是真
的就可以对球队带来很大的不同。但是- 以往的经验产生的怀疑再次展现，你或许已经知
道了，他们不是第一对球员在春训时状况不错。那是三月的太阳造成的。
The Cubs have a couple of other things going for them. Bad as they looked
last year, it was their third consecutive winning season. For the Red Sox,
say, that wouldn't be a big deal. It's the first time it's happened to the
Cubs since 1970-72. Time was when a .500 Cubs team was considered a success,
not a failure. With 81 wins as a floor, they'd be near the top of the weak NL
Central. Only the St. Louis Cardinals look clearly better.
小熊仍有几件事情需要做到。像是去年那个糟糕的球季，他原本应该是小熊第三个连胜的
球季。相较红袜而言，那不是件大事。但是那是小熊第一次有机会继 70-72年以来的三连
胜，一个当小熊有五成胜率就会被当作成功的时代。对于至少有81胜且相对较弱的国联中
区，只有红雀看起来显著的好一点。
And while their offseason improvements were modest—principally
thirty-something journeyman outfielders Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady—those
guys and a little better luck with injuries will keep them from giving 700
at-bats to the likes of Gathright, Miles, Scales, Hill, Andres Blanco and
Ryan Freel (composite batting average .223).
而虽然他们在季后的补强没有很大-主要是补进了 Marlon Byrd 和 Xavier Nady- 这些人
如果有些许的好运与避免受伤可以提供700个打席，像是Gathright, Miles, Scales,
Hill, Andres Blanco 与 Ryan Freel (合起来的 average .223)
What about the new owners?
新老板如何呢 ?
After three decades as corporate afterthoughts, the Cubs have owners who
actually wanted a baseball team. Like the Wrigleys, the Ricketts family made
its fortune elsewhere (trading in stocks rather than chewing gum). The
Tribune Company bought a media company that owned a baseball team; Sam Zell
was a real estate magnate who bought a piece of property to flip.
在过了30年企业化的经营后，小熊终于有个真正想要一个球队的老板。像是箭牌口香糖，
Rickeet 家族让他的钱洒在别的地方(交易股票甚于嚼口香糖)。
Tribune 公司买下了一个拥有棒球队的媒体公司，Sam Zell 是个超有钱的人，买下了这
个企业。
Tom Ricketts, the face of the new ownership, says the right things about
wanting a winner and has shown no signs of wanting to cut the budget of a
popular team that's a success in every way except the year-end standings. But
there doesn't appear to be much he can do to turn the Cubs into an instant
powerhouse. They already have one of the majors' largest payrolls (some $140
million). Problem is, $102 million of that is tied up in just seven players.
All but one of those (Zambrano) is over 30; none seem primed for a startling
breakthough.
Tom Ricketts. 这个新老板说:对于这个受欢迎且在许多方面都很成功除了年底的排名以
外的球队，要胜利须要做些对的事情而且并没有要砍预算的样子。
但是并没有明显的可以让小熊立马变成一个充满power 的球队。他们已经是个有着庞大薪
资的球队(140 M)，而问题在有 102 M被七个球员绑住。
就是那票除了大Z以外年过30的球员。没有一个看起来能提供惊人的突破。
So the Cubs' key current players are about as good as they're going to get.
They have the Soriano millstone. They have a decision to make on Lee, whose
contract is up after this year: He's popular, he's good, he's 34. And if the
bright light of new talent is peeking over the horizon, you can't see it from
here. There's excitement this spring about young shortstop Starlin Castro,
but he's 19, has exactly 31 games past the Single-A level, and stands out in
part for lack of competition: He's the only Cubs prospect on Matt Hagen's top
100 list on THT this month.
所以小熊目前的关键球员是那些他们将要拿到的。他们有难以丢掉的索爷。他们需要对阿
李作出些决定，一个今年底就走完合约的人。阿李很受欢迎，阿李很棒，阿李34岁了。
而如果曙光从地平线悄悄的出现，他们不会是上面的那些人。今年春训有个让人惊艳的人
，Starlin Castro。但是他只有19岁，只在1A有过31场完整的比赛，在缺乏竞争的地方
勉强有一席之地。他是小熊这个月唯一一个出现在Matt Hagen's top 100 list on THT的
人。
Will the Cubs deal big-time if they're in contention at midseason, as the
Cardinals did with Matt Holliday in 2009? You have to think there's a better
chance than there has been in recent years, when ownership was in limbo.
The 102-year history of missing the big prize aside, the once-woeful Cubs
have become a serious player in the major leagues. They're a valuable
franchise in a major market. With enlightened ownership, there's every reason
to think they'll be a success on the field.
One of these days.
小熊会在季中有重大交易吗 ? 就像是红雀在去年季中交易来Matt Holliday 一样。你必
须假设会比过去几年多了些机会，因为老板换人了。
这个有102年与冠军失之交臂的历史，曾经有着很烂的成绩的小熊已经变成了大联盟里的
强队。
在大联盟里他是个宝贵的资产，而随着明朗化的经营权，每个理由都让我们相信他们会在
球场上成功。在许多日子的某一天里。
Joe Distelheim is a copy editor for The Hardball Times website. He welcomes
comments and suggestions via e-mail.
____________________________________________________________________________
第一次翻译外电...有错请板有多多指正^^\