Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays
by R.J. Anderson March 16, 2010
原文网址 http://0rz.tw/Z8mo3
What wacky lineups will Joe Maddon produce?
究竟~Maddon会排出怎样奇形怪状的打线?
As of this writing, the projected 25-man roster features Ben Zobrist, B.J.
Upton, Sean Rodriguez and Willy Aybar. With the exception of Aybar, the quartet
shares a common positional genesis at shortstop, so it should be no surprise
that versatility is in high supply.
在可能的25人名单内，Ben Zobrist, B.J.Upton, Sean Rodiguez, Willy Aybar都是拥有多
重守备位置的球员，除了Aybar以外，其他人也都有守SS的经验，所以不用惊讶的是，在各
个位置上都有很多人可以选择。
Zobrist has 130 major league appearances at shortstop, 99 at second base and 89
in the outfield (he actually appeared at every position except catcher and
pitcher last season). Upton has more than 350 starts in center field, but also
63 appearances at third base, 48 at second and 16 at short. When Jason Bartlett
suffered an injury last season, Upton actually took grounders at shortstop just
in case. Aybar is being restricted to third and first base this season, but has
taken reps at short and second for the Rays and Rodriguez is essentially the
new Zobrist.
Zobrist在大联盟有130场守SS、99场守2B、89场守OF(事实上除了P跟C以外，去年他每个位
置都守过了)的经验。
Upton虽然大多都担任CF(350场)，但也有守过3B(63场)、2B(48场)、SS(16场)，去年Jason
Bartlett受伤时，Upton也有进行SS的练习。
Aybar虽然本季被定位成CI，但也有在进行MI的练习。
Sean-Rod则被认为是另一个Zobrist(内外兼修)
Having four players with the capability to play, well, everywhere provides a
ridiculous amount of flexibility for Maddon. Factor in that the Rays have a
number of platoon-heavy hitters and things are going to be in constant flux. If
Hank Blalock somehow makes the roster, there’s a chance the Rays could produce
this lineup versus righties (career wOBA versus righties):
球队其他球员本身也具有强大的攻击火力，如果Hank Blalock也在名单内，光芒就能排出专
门面对右投的打线。
C Dioner Navarro (.334)
1B Carlos Pena (.382)
2B Ben Zobrist (.335)
3B Evan Longoria (.377)
SS Jason Bartlett (.310)
LF Carl Crawford (.345)
CF B.J. Upton (.332)
RF Matt Joyce (.357; small sample size)
DH Hank Blalock (.362)
And then this one to face southpaws (career wOBA versus lefties):
以及专门面对左投的打线。
C Kelly Shoppach (.419)
1B Carlos Pena (.333)
2B Sean Rodriguez (.289; small sample size)
3B Evan Longoria (.364)
SS Jason Bartlett (.372)
LF Carl Crawford (.307)
CF B.J. Upton (.343)
RF Ben Zobrist (.366)
DH Pat Burrell (.389)
Gabe Kapler and his .363 wOBA versus lefties into account. That’s also
assuming the southpaw hitting Reid Brignac isn’t around and, well, you get the
point. This club is deeper and more complex than a painting by M.C. Escher.
Maddon is no stranger to mixing and matching either. During his four years with
the Rays, he’s used 125, 100, 100 and 93 different lineups.
姑且不论Gabe Kaple面对左投也有.363 wOBA(注1)的表现，而且这也是在没有考虑到左打者
Brignac的情况下，你会发现这只球队比M.C. Escher的画作还要复杂。
Maddon也是个排列组合的行家，在担任光芒总教练的4年里，他分别排出了123,100,100,93
种打线。
How many innings for Rafael Soriano?
Soriano能投多少局数?
Team owner Stuart Sternberg and the acquisition of Soriano have produced some
quality quotations. Before the offseason began, Sternberg said something to the
ilk of, "There aren’t any $7 million closers coming here." To which Andrew
Friedman, who runs the baseball operations, said, "Hey, about that." Now the
Rays did not pursue or acquire Soriano because he’s a closer, but more because
he’s a good pitcher. Nevertheless, Sternberg said the Rays intend to have a
little fun with their shiny bullpen toy, which raises the question: How thin is
the line between an efficient workload and abusing the arm? Fingernail thin
when that arm is under contract for only one season and that one season is the
most important in team history.
对于有点残破不全的牛棚，追求高效用的工作量以及对手臂的伤害只有一线之隔，尤其这条
手臂只有一年合约，而且球队正处于极为重要的一个球季。
The 30-year-old Soriano posted a career high in appearances and innings last
season, which suggests that the Braves' Frank Wren and Bobby Cox intended to
stretch the boundaries as well. Throughout Soriano’s career, he’s been death
to righties (.520 OPS against) and an irritating annoyance to lefties (.707
OPS), which means calling upon him to face batters of either hand is no issue.
30岁的Soriano在去年的出场次与投球局数都创下生涯新高，他生涯面对不论左右打的
问题都不大。
Soriano figures to rack up something like 30-35 saves in 2010. Of those with at
least 30 saves in 2009, only Jonathan Broxton and Fernando Rodney pitched at
least twice as many innings as they had saves. Brian Fuentes was the low man,
with 1.1 innings per save, and the average of the group was 1.7. Expect Soriano
’s innings per save ratio to be higher than Troy Percival’s in 2008 (1.6) but
lower than J.P. Howell’s in 2009 (3.9).
Soriano被预期2010年能拿下30-35次SV，而2009年拿下30次SV以上的RP只有Jonathan
Broxton 跟 Fernando Rodney投超过SV次数两倍以上的局数，最低的是Brian Fuentes
平均1.1局拿下一次SV，而平均值则是1.7。
预计Soriano每拿下一次SV大约要投1.6~3.9局。
arm injuries and one caused him to miss most of 2008. Under Maddon’s watch the
Rays have never had a reliever top 90 innings (Howell came awfully close in
2008 though, literally outs away). How Maddon balances Soriano’s duties as the
Rays’ harbinger of finality will be something to watch for, if only to see
what the Rays’ definition of fun is.
对光芒而言，Soriano的肩膀伤痛史是个值得观察的地方，在Maddon的带领下，光芒还没有
一位投超过90局的RP(最接近的是2008年的Howell投了89.1局)。
Maddon会怎么使用这位新的CL值得关注。
Will the Rays trade Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena?
是否会交易 Carl Crawford 或 Carlos Pena?
The last time the Rays dealt with relevant players nearing the end of their
contracts, they chose against the draft picks and took the security of choosing
the prospects. Such efforts netted them a mixed bag of results.
In 2006, they dealt relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter to the Dodgers for
starting prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany. (Jackson was later traded
for Matt Joyce.) A few months later they finished the job, moving first baseman
Aubrey Huff and cash to Houston for (then) shortstop Zobrist and starter Mitch
Talbot. (Talbot was recently traded for Shoppach.)
光芒在合约届满前交易有价值的球员多用以交换选秀权，或是形成包裹式的交易，2006年他
们用Danys Baez +Lance Carter向道奇交易来Edwin Jackson(后来被拿来交易Matt Joyce)
+ Chuck Tiffany几个月后，又用Aubrey Huff + 现金换来Zobrist + Mitch Talbot
(最近被拿来交易Shoppach)
Friedman also spun two deals with the Dodgers. First, he shipped starter/giant
Mark Hendrickson, catcher Toby Hall and cash for starter/arsonist Jae-Weong
Seo, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Justin Ruggiano. Then, as the trade
deadline came into view, he dealt shortstop Julio Lugo for outfielder Sergio
Pedroza and infielder Joel Guzman.
捕手Navarro等人也是透过此类交易而来的
Throughout the years, the Rays have demonstrated a high level of success in
player scouting, whether it be domestic or international, prospect or amateur.
The clash between team preference (seemingly taking the controlled variable,
i.e. the prospects, rather than rolling the dice) and the reality of their
contender status is compelling, if not ultimately won by the chance at a
championship. The problem is that the Rays must rely not upon their scouts'
eyes and notes, but first upon Elias’ algorithm to correctly identify Crawford
and Pena as being worthy of Type-A status. Neither, surprisingly, is a lock.
Evidently being the best defensive left fielder in baseball for many years
running just isn’t worth as much to the Elias’ system as it should be.
这些年来，光芒在挖掘球员上取得重大的成功。
但Crawford 和 Pena是否能被判定为A咖，仍要交给Elias(注2)评比
近年来防守最好的LF的评比结果是否和事实相符，仍有疑问。
The flip side to the Type-A status dilemma is that Pena very well could accept
arbitration if offered. He loves the area and the team. Plus, with a first base
market that includes Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, and oh yeah, Albert Pujols, the
chance of Pena breaking the bank in free agency seems less certain than before.
Agent Scott Boras’ tumultuous offseason with Johnny Damon could certainly fuel
the flame of Pena sticking with the Rays.
若是Pena被证明是个A咖，将使他陷入薪资仲裁的两难，因为他热爱这只球队，加上之后
FA将有Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, Albert Pujols等大咖1B，Pena势必讨不到太大的便宜
，经纪人Boras的功力也有助于Pena继续留下。
That’s not to say the Rays haven’t been stocking up on first basemen like
suntan lotion this offseason. The 2008 cult hero Dan Johnson and former
prospect Ryan Shealy are in the system, as is the aforementioned Blalock. There
’s also Matthew Sweeney, a poor-fielding third baseman with offensive
potential whom they acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade. And the Rays signed
Cuban outfielder/first baseman Leslie Anderson to a contract worth nearly $4
million.
但不代表光芒没有对此作准备， Dan Johnson、Ryan Shealy、Blalock、在Kazmir交易案中
得来的Matthew Sweeney、古巴籍的Leslie Anderson都是可能的备案。
The most comforting news for fans of the team who share a passion for amateur
talent is that the club will hold six of the top 90 selections this June,
including compensatory picks for failure to sign their first- and second-round
selections in 2009 and a supplementary selection for the loss of Gregg Zaun. So
whether Crawford and Pena stay or leave via trade or free agency, the Rays will
be making a ton of early selections over the next two Junes which, along with
the rise of arms like Matthew Moore and Alexander Colome, should keep the Rays’
farm system amongst the best in baseball, even with the graduation of guys
like …
不过最令光芒球迷感到欣慰的是，光芒在今年六月依然拥有不错的选秀顺位，包含2009年第
一与第二轮选择失败的补偿，以及失去选择Gregg Zaun而追加的选秀权。不论Crawford或
Pena留下或离开，光芒在未来两次的选秀中仍然大有可为，让其继续保持拥有全联盟最佳的
农场。
Will Desmond Jennings see the majors this year?
Desmond Jennings今年会上到大联盟吗?
The short answer: Probably not until September.
简短的答案是：恐怕到9月扩编前都不会。
The long answer: Jennings is the undisputed top prospect for the Rays. He’s a
23-year-old center fielder who bats right-handed, throws right-handed, and
possesses five tools. Last year, Jennings played in 132 minor league games
across Double- and Triple-A and combined for a batting line of .318/.401/.488
with 11 homers, 31 doubles and 52 steals in 577 plate appearances.
长一点的答案是：Jennings无庸置疑是光芒的顶级新秀，这位右投右打的23岁CF，五项能力
兼俱，去年在小联盟2A + 3A出赛共132场，577个打席中缴出11 HR、31 2B、52 SB ，打击
三围是.318/.401/.488。
Many will tell you that Jennings is the typical Rays prospect. That’s a quick
way to say the player is hyper-athletic with huge upside and likely has dark
skin. Jennings is all of that. Some would say he’s a walk-conscious version of
Carl Crawford, or a hybrid of B.J. Upton and Crawford. The Rays chose Jennings
out of an Alabama Juco in the 10th round of the 2006 draft, the same draft that
produced Longoria.
Jennings是光芒典型的选秀类型，拥有强大的运动能力以及黑色皮肤，有人将他比喻成
B.J. Upton + Crawford的综合体，2006年被光芒在第10轮选走，与Longoria同届。
The problem—and literally, it might be the only problem—with Jennings has
been health. He missed most of 2008 with a strained back and his spring
training experience ended prematurely with a sprained wrist. The other problem,
and this isn’t so much with Jennings or so much a problem, is that the Rays
have incredible outfield depth in the majors already. Crawford, Upton, Kapler
and Joyce form a solid foursome, with Zobrist and Rodriguez being able to take
reps there as well. There’s also future poet laureate Fernando Perez and Jaime
Cevallos’ newest patient Ruggiano roaming around Durham, just itching for a
crack at St. Petersburg.
问题是他必须保持健康，背伤使他错过了2008年大部分的比赛，而他的春训也因为扭伤而
提前结束。
另外一个问题，相较之下问题不大，就是光芒的外野呈现爆炸状态，同时面对其他新秀的竞
争。
Will James Shields ever be appreciated?
James Shields是否能投出应有的水准?
Minus the 2008 playoffs and the now infamous "Big Game" nickname controversy,
Shields has avoided the spotlight like his favorite meal is blood. Yet, over
the last three seasons, Shields has a lower xFIP than John Lackey, Chad
Billingsley, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, Andy
Pettitte, Gil Meche, Scott Kazmir, Scott Baker, Mark Buehrle and John Danks. He
’s thrown more innings than everyone in baseball except CC Sabathia, Roy
Halladay and Dan Haren over that period as well.
姑且不论2008年的季后赛以及最近一些五四三的争论，过去三个球季里，Shields的xFIP比
多位各队1、2号SP的要来的低，这段时间内他的投球局数也仅次于CC、Doc、Haren。
So, why doesn’t the guy get more love? It’s hard to say. Nothing about Shields
’ approach is spectacular. His velocity doesn’t win him radar gun groupies,
his change-up is fantastic but he’s taken to using it less and less as the
opposing hitters expect it more and more, and his mellow persona doesn’t allow
for much in the way of imagination. He’s just James Shields. He’s just the
guy who never reached top prospect status and appeared in 2006 under the name
of Jamie. He’s just the guy who took the win in Tampa Bay’s first playoff
game and lays claim to the only positive World Series decision in franchise
history.
到底为什么Shields这么没有爱?其实不太好解释。
他并没有过于突出的表现，球速没有受到注目、威力强大的变速球却很少使用、圆滑的个性
使他并不容易让人留下深刻印象。
尽管他赢得了队史第一场季后赛胜利。
He’s just James Shields, the old chew toy on a staff of young guns. He’s just
James Shields, and that means he’s just on the wrong end of some bad luck. He’
s never won 15 games in a single season (which would be a Rays record) despite
being just fantastic throughout most of his career. His run support per game
started has dwindled (from 3.8 to 3.7 to 3.3) despite the Rays’ offense
setting a franchise record for runs per game in 2009.
这就是他，只是运气不好了点，他从没单季拿下过15胜(如果有的话将是队史纪录)，尽管他
表现的很不错，他得到的火力支援越来越少，从平均每场3.8→3.7→3.3分，虽然光芒队在
2009年平均单场得分的火力惊人。
He’s the dude with the chin hair who wears number 33 and warms to the violent
sounds of Du Hast. He’s the dude who hasn’t missed a start due to fatigue or
injury since 2006, and missed a start in 2008 only because he tried being James
Braddock. He’s one of only two long-term investments on the Rays, alongside
that Longoria guy, and he’s under contract through 2014 for an average salary
of roughly $7 million despite the Rays buying out a pair of free agency years.
Consider this: Shields won’t make more than $8 million in a single season
until 2013. Former teammate Edwin Jackson will make nearly $8.5 million next
season. Here’s the kicker. Jackson’s career best season (as judged by xFIP)
would be Shields’ worst.
他自从2006年后就没有因伤缺阵过，他也是目前光芒唯二的长期投资(另一位是Longoria)，
到2014年，他的平均年薪接近7M。
到2013年之前，他单季薪资不会超过8M，而前队友Edwin Jackson明年就会得到将近8.5M，
但Jackson表现最好的那年，与Shields最差的表现差不多。
Shields is probably going to pitch pretty well in 2010. He’ll probably do it
without much fanfare or attention either, which is fine, that’s just who he
is.
Shields今年应该还是会投得不错，他仍然不太可能成为目光的焦点，但这就是他，
只是做好他份内的工作。
注1.Weighted On Base Average http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
注2.The Elias Sports Bureau http://www.esb.com/