http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-st.-louis-cardinals/
Aah, Spring Training is upon us and teams are sorting out their rosters for
the 2010 season. Coming off a successful 2009 in which they won 91 games and
made the playoffs, the Cardinals look to be in good shape going into this
season. They project to win somewhere between 85 (THT) and 92 games (PECOTA),
and win the division fairly easily over a hodge-podge of mediocre teams.
呃，大联盟的各球队已经开始2010年球季的春训，并试图找出他们开季时的最佳阵型。接
续上一个成功的球季，红鸟们本季看来将会继续保有一个十分棒的队形。THT和PECOTA分
别预测红鸟本季将会赢得85和92场比赛，而且将会在一团混乱的平庸分区（国联中区）
里，顺利的取得分区的王座。
This is a team that features the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols, one
of the most sabermetric un-friendly but somehow still incredibly successful
managers in Tony LaRussa, a strong supporting cast and a history of success.
However, they are by no means a lock to have a good season and there are some
obvious questions surrounding them.
话虽如此，由全联盟最佳球员Pujols、非钱球派却十分成功的教练LaRussa再加上一群实
力深厚的选手和优良的传统所组成的红鸟队并不能如此百分之百的肯定他们将会有一个
美好的球季，因为红鸟队有一些显而易见的问题。
Will the supporting cast around Pujols be strong enough?
Pujols可以得到足够的支援吗？
I already mentioned this, but Pujols is really, really good. Over the past
three seasons, he's been tied for first in the majors in batting average,
first in on base percentage and first in slugging average. To top that off,
according to UZR, he's been a +8 run defender per 150 games over that span.
No surprise that FanGraphs estimates he's been the most valuable position
player in baseball, totaling 25.6 Wins Above Replacement.
虽然前面已经提过了，但是还是要赞扬一下Pujols是一个多么棒的球员。过去三年里，
Pujols拥有并列第一的打击率和排名第一的上垒率和长打率。防守方面，根据UZR，
Pujols是一个每150场多为球队守住八分的防守者。比平均水准多赢25.6场比赛的表
现，难怪FanGraphs认为Pujols是最佳的野手。
Despite that incredible production by Pujols, the Cardinals have not had much
success over the past three seasons. They were below .500 in 2007, missed the
playoffs in '08 and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs last
year. Much of that can be attributed to a less-than-stellar supporting cast
around Pujols. So will that trend hold true next year?
尽管Pujols的效率惊人，但是这并没有反应在红鸟的战绩上。07年，他们的胜率不满五
成。08年甚至连季后赛都没得打。09年第一轮就出局。这些当然可以归咎于红鸟打击上
对Pujols不尽人意的支援，但是问题是今年球季红鸟打线是否会依然如此？
I don't think so. Yadier Molina has quietly become one of the better players
in baseball. He projects to be an average hitter, according to THT's Oliver
projections, and is also likely the best defensive catcher in the game. When
you combine those attributes you end up with an incredibly valuable player.
我不这么认为。Yadier Molina已经静悄悄的成为一位水准之上的球员。当平均的打击
（根据THT的预测）加上优异的本垒后方守备，这就只能是一个非常有价值的球员。
Colby Rasmus had a very solid rookie season in 2009. Despite some troubles
with his usually high walk rate, he showed very good power and played
excellent defense. Furthermore, at just 23 years old, he has plenty of room
for improvement.
Colby Rasmus有一个非常实在的09年球季。虽然保送不像平常那么多，但是他的砲管
和优异的守备还是让人惊艳。再加上他今年才23岁，还有非常的大的空间可以成长。
Matt Holliday was just signed to a huge deal and looks to be one of the best
left fielders in baseball. Ryan Ludwick had a down, but still solid, year
in 2009, but was one of the best players in baseball in 2008.
大联盟的最佳左外野手之一的Matt Holliday刚签下肥约。Ludwick虽然在09年有个小低
潮，但请别忘了他08年的表现。
Brendan Ryan was outstanding with the leather last year, and despite an
pre-spring training injury, projects to be a capable hitter and an excellent
defender at a premium position.
Brendan Ryan拿着手套守备的表现（这里我不太确定）可以用杰出来形容。
虽然在春训前受伤，以他的守备位置（SS）而言，他还是一个不错的打者和优秀的防守
者。
The Cardinals' new utiliy man, Felipe Lopez, had a .383 OBP last year and
signed for just over $1 million. Skip Schumaker has had over a .360 OBP in
each of the past three seasons, and showed a lot of improvement defensively
last year.
红鸟还有只用1M就签下.383上垒率的优替人Felipe Lopez和守备上大有进步而且连续三年
上垒率破.360的Skip Schumaker。
In short, the Cardinals look to have a very strong ensemble of position
players even once you get past Pujols, much better than it has been over the
past few seasons. That brings us to pitching...
总而言之，就算你跳过Pujols不算，红鸟的打线还是非常的强大，而且比前几年强大太
多了。所以看来问题应该不在打线上，这带出了接下来的问题...
How does the rotation stack up for the Cardinals?
红鸟的先发轮值？
Last year, the Cardinals' starting pitching was some of the best in baseball.
Their best three starters, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro,
combined for 639.2 innings last year and a 2.80 ERA. And despite some
struggles from the back end of the rotation (ahem, Todd Wellemeyer), the
Cardinals rotation put up the fourth best ERA in the majors last year.
去年红鸟的先发好得可以在棒球史上站有一席之地。Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter
和Joel Pineiro组成的三巨头用2.80的ERA吃掉了639.2局。如果忽略一些挣扎的后段班
（嗯哼，对，就是Todd Wellemeyer）红鸟的轮值在去年可以排第四。
This year is another story. Pineiro, who harnessed the power of the sinker
last year to great improvement, has moved on to the American League, and as
good as Wainwright and Carpenter are, both probably got a bit lucky last year
and figure to regress, and the latter is a significant injury risk. Kyle
Lohse was really bad last year and got injured for the first time in his
career - he doesn't figure to be much better than league average.
但今年又是个不同的故事了。Pineiro跑去了美联，Wainwright和Carpenter看来不太可能
复制去年带有一点点运气成份的成绩，Carpenter还有很大的受伤风险。Kyle Lohse
去年表现很差而且又在他的职业生涯中第一次受伤，所以实在不用太期待他有什么表现。
The Cardinals paid more than $7 million for Brad Penny, who despite seeing a
resurgence in his fastball velocity, has been one of the worst starters in
baseball over the past two seasons. For the fifth starter spot, the Cardinals
seem to be employing the "throw sh*t at a wall and see what sticks"
technique, fostering a competition between rookie Jaime Garcia, who was
injured most of last year and has had very little experience in the high
minors, and Rich Hill, who has had historically bad control problems over the
past couple of years and is somewhat of a medical miracle.
补强的部份，红鸟花了7M找了Brad Penny，虽然他的球速好像有起色，但是他已经用
两个球季证明他是个烂先发。在寻找第五号先发上，红鸟应用了“丢屎在墙上，然后
看哪一坨会黏住”的技术，让缺乏经验而且受伤了大半季的Jaime Garcia和控球一直
有问题的医学奇蹟Rich Hill来竞争这个位置。
Despite all of that, the Cardinals appear to have a solid rotation. According
to Oliver projections, here is how the rotation will likely perform next
season:
虽然听起来很糟，但是红鸟还是会有个实在的轮值，根据Oliver projections，本季的轮
值应该是这样
Name Projected IP Projected ERA
Chris Carpenter 180 2.85
Adam Wainwright 200 3.64
Brad Penny 120 4.67
Kyle Lohse 200 4.51
Jaime Garcia 75 4.76
Rich Hill 97 4.90
Carpenter and Wainwright project to be studs once again, and some combination
of the other four should give the Cardinals solidly average performance.
Furthermore, there is definitely some upside with each of Penny, Lohse, Hill
and Garcia, given that the first three have each had success in the majors
before and Garcia is considered one of the Cardinals' best prospects. To sum
up, the Cardinals most likely won't enjoy such as good a showing from their
rotation as they did in 2009; however, with the two-headed ace of Carpenter
and Wainwright and a solid back end, their starting pitcher should not be a
liability for them next seasons.
Carpenter和Wainwright的组合看来还是非常风光，而其他人应该会有平均水准的演出。
而且Penny, Lohse, Hill and Garcia之中，应该会有人表现的比预期好。毕竟，
前三者都有成功站稳大联盟的经验，而Garcia是农场里最被期待的农作物之一。概括而
言，红鸟的轮值，不会像09年如此的成功，但是拥有双王牌和厚实后段的红鸟轮值将不
会在2010球季成为拖累球队的负担。
How 'bout the pen?
那牛棚呢？
While the bullpen for the Cardinals last year was very productive, putting up
the fifth best ERA in the majors, a lot of that was smoke and mirrors. Their
cumulative FIP was nearly .7 runs higher than their ERA and roughly in the
middle of the pack among the rest of the teams. Ryan Franklin was the biggest
impostor last year, somehow allowing just a 1.92 ERA despite a K:BB ratio
under 2 and average batted-ball rates. Furthermore, Franklin struggled
mightily in the last month of the season and the playoffs last year. Still,
he has quietly been one of the most effective relievers in baseball since
joining the Cardinals in 2007, and just signed a two-year extension. Like it
or not, he'll be the Cardinals' closer next year, and past history suggest he
should do a decent job.
虽然去年红鸟的牛棚投出了全联盟第五佳的ERA，但是这可能只是虚幻的运气。红鸟
牛棚团队的FIP（Fielding Independent Pitching，衡量和守备无关的投球ERA），比他
们的团队ERA高了.7，而且在所有的队伍中只是中段班。其中Ryan Franklin尤其显得宰制
力不足，虽然ERA是1.92，但他却有奇差无比的K/BB（低于2）加上普通的batted-ball
rate.而且别忘了，Franklin上季末和季后赛都表现得十分挣扎。
虽然如此，Franklin还是红鸟牛棚中最有效的后援投手之一，而且他才刚签了两年的延
长合约，所以不管你喜不喜欢，他都还会是closer，而且根据他以前的表现，他将会是
尚可的选择。
Behind him is an assortment of "meh" pitchers: LOOGY's Trevor Miller and
Dennys Reyes, a guy with a 97 MPH fastball and not much else (Jason Motte),
and then a few interesting youngsters in Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs and
Blake Hawksworth. As a whole, the pen projects to be decidedly boring, with
only Motte possessing any real strikeout capabilities, and not too effective.
Most importantly, they are lacking a clear bullpen ace who can shut down a
rally and consistently preserve one-run leads. To be honest, talking about
the Cardinals' bullpen depresses me a little bit, and I just have to keep
reminding myself that relievers simply aren't as important as the other
facets of a team.
在Franklin之后的还是一群差强人意的投手，一人左Trevor Miller和Dennys Reyes、除
了97MPH什么也没有的Jason Motte、几个有趣的年轻投手Kyle McClellan, Mitchell
Boggs and Blake Hawksworth。一言以蔽之，这是个无聊的牛棚，只有Jason Motte有
不太有效的三振能力。更重要的是，这里面没有任何一个人可以站出来，一夫当关的守住
一分差的领先。看到这里，真是一个让人沮丧的牛棚，我们只能提醒自己牛棚没有球队
的其他部份那么重要来安慰自己了。
All in all, the Cardinals project to have a well-above average collection of
position players featuring two heavy hitters in the middle of the order in
Pujols and Holliday and a lot of depth around them. Their rotation looks to
be solidly above average, and even the pen is passable. They are projected to
be the best team in the NL Central for a reason, and with the bleak
situations of their divisional rivals, I expect that the Cardinals will have
an easy path to the playoffs. With the preview out of the way, I'd now like
to explore some of the more interesting questions regarding the 2010
Cardinals.
小结：红鸟有水准之上的打线：两门重砲Pujols和Holliday有许多有深度的枪和砲掩护
他们，加上中上的先发投手轮值加上食之无味的牛棚，看来红鸟将会是国联中区本季拥有
最佳阵型的球队。考虑国联中区并没有什么强力的对手，红鸟将会轻轻松松的取得季后赛
门票。在这种[无趣的]情况下，我们应该要深究一些更有趣的问题。
How will Mark McGwire do as the hitting coach?
Mark McGwire可以当一个好的打击教练吗？
The Cardinals created quite a buzz this off season by announcing that Big Mac
would be their hitting coach for the 2010 season during the same time that he
formally admitted to taking steroids. And while the media was particularly
vicious at first, Tony La Russa and the rest of the Cardinals front office
did a good job of mitigating the situation. And while there are still some
questions about how McGwire's situation will affect the team in the long run,
the more interesting question in my opinion is how well he will do as a
hitting coach.
红鸟在宣布McGwire成为他们2010球季的打击教练的同时造成了一股骚动，因为在此同时
McGwire正式承认他用过药来增强表现。当时LaRussa成功的对嗜血的媒体做好了伤害控制
。当大家都还在关心McGwire会不会对红鸟有长远的不良影响时，我认为更有趣的是他到
底会不会是一个称职的打击教练。
Last year, the Cardinals were a frustrating team to watch offensively at
times. Despite having a lineup full of talented players, the general approach
to each at-bat featured by players such as Rasmus, Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick
was miserable. According to FanGraphs' O-Swing, which measures the percentage
of pitches swung at on pitches outside of the strike zone, the Cardinals were
one of the hackiest teams in baseball last year. When you combine that with
the fact that the hitting coach was preaching "aggressiveness" to the hitters
last year, it's no surprise that the Cardinals wanted to bring in someone
else. McGwire, with his career 17.2 percent walk rate, looks like a good
candidate to improve the Cardinals' hitting philosophy. Although there is no
way of knowing how good a teacher McGwire will be, I have a feeling he'll do
fine. Next question!
去年，红鸟的进攻真是让人垂头丧气。虽然红鸟不缺有天份的球员，像Rasmus, Ankiel,
Duncan and Ludwick，但是上述球员的打击让人可以用悲惨来形容。红鸟团队的O-Swing
，也就是追打坏球的比率非常的高。当你又发现09年的打击教练奋力鼓吹“积极出棒”时
，解决问题的方法显而易见：找新的打击教练！生涯获得17.2％保送的McGwire看来是个
传授红鸟球员们新打击心法的好人选，虽然不知道他是不是个好老师，但是我想他应该
会做得不错。下个问题！
Just how bad is the Cardinals farm system?
红鸟的农场到底伤得多重？
Well according to Keith Law, they have the 29th best system in baseball. If
you are a Sickels kind of guy, they have... the 29th system in baseball. When
the Cardinals traded for Holliday and Mark DeRosa last year, they gave up a
lot of their best prospects, including Jess Todd, Chris Perez and Brett
Wallace. Considering they also graduated their best prospect, Colby Rasmus,
to a full-time big league job, it's no surprise that the system is in poor
shape right now.
根据Keith Law的排名，红鸟农场名列第29。为了Holliday和Mark DeRosa，红鸟的农场换
走了一大票顶级作物，包括Jess Todd, Chris Perez和Brett Wallace，加上Colby
Rasmus从农场升到了大联盟，难怪红鸟农场现在作物的状况非常悽惨。
This is not the first time that this has happened though. During the 100-win
years of 2004 and 2005, the Cardinals consistently had one of the worst farm
systems in baseball. They traded away countless top prospects for win-now
pieces, and after their 2006 World Series victory, they were in dire shape as
an organization. However, Jeff Luhnow, the Cardinals current Vice President
of Player Procurement and the big guy in charge of draft operations, did a
fantastic job of fixing up the system. He was able to act quickly and with
solid drafts was able to build up the Cardinals' system to be solidly in the
middle of the pack by last year.
但是糟糕的农场已经不是初次发生了，在04和05年的百胜球季时红鸟一直保有最差的农
场系统，他们换走了所有有价值的作物来追求眼前的胜利，在2006年的世界大赛夺冠后，
农场系统已经岌岌可危了。但是副总裁Jeff Luhnow，这位负责选秀和猎球员的总裁成功
的用果断的行动和务实的选秀策略在去年之前重建了农场系统。
So while the system is in bad shape right now, I have confidence in Luhnow
and the Cardinals to build it back up. They have already taken a good first
step in that direction with a solid 2009 draft that netted them Shelby
Miller, a top 50 prospect according to Baseball America, and a very talented
Robert Stock. Furthermore, they had attempted to sign Wagner Mateo, a prime
talent in the Latin market, before the physical fell through. I know that
close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades; however, the Cardinals'
willingness to spend money on top talent to improve their system is
auspicious for the system's health.
所以，虽然现在红鸟的农场状况很差，我相信Jeff Luhnow可以重建整个红鸟的农场系
统。红鸟已经迈出了成功的第一步：他们务实的09年选秀网罗了top50的新秀Shelby
Miller和很有天份的球员Robert Stock。而且红鸟也努力的试图签下Wagner Mateo，
一位在受伤前非常有才能的拉丁裔球员。虽然大家都知道这些补强只是搔搔痒，并不能
解决红鸟农场眼前的问题（原文的意思是不够接近目标），但我相信红鸟愿意投注资金
来网罗潜力新秀的态度，对农场的影响将是十分正面的。
To sum up today's preview of the 2010 Cardinals I'll mention a few more
points of interest that I wasn't able to get to fully in this article:
除此之外，还有几点关于红鸟的议题未在前面讨论的，将在后面补充。
Colby Rasmus' expected improvement
对Colby Rasmus进步的预测
As a guy who spends so much of his time dealing with numbers and data, Rasmus
is in a weird place for me. None of the projection systems think very highly
of him next year (Oliver thinks he'll be downright terrible); however, just
by watching him play, there is a ton of potential there, both offensively and
defensively. He's under team control for the next five years, and I have a
hunch he'll be one of the best assets in baseball.
对于一个整天接触棒球数据的人来说，Rasmus处于一个奇怪的状态。没有任何的预测认为
他在2010年球季会有很好的表现（Oliver认为他马上就会被打回原型）。但是，如果实际
观看Rasmus的表现，将会发现他不论在打击或守备上都有惊人的潜力。Rasmus将会继续在
红鸟的掌控下打五年球，直觉告诉我他将会是大联盟中的一项最佳资产。
Pujols' contract situation
Pujols的合约
With the signing of Holliday, the Cardinals have sent a message that they are
ready to be a contending team year in and year out. That has always been
Pujols' first priority, and I really don't think he'll leave the Cardinals
even if they can't scratch up the dough that the Sox or Mets can. I have been
critical of the Holliday signing due to the shear amount of money involved;
however, if it helps the Cardinals to resign Pujols, I'd be greatly satisfied
with it.
红鸟藉著签下Holliday传达出一项讯息：他们是一只有夺冠竞争力和野心的球队。这也是
Pujols在选择球队时最关心的一点。我相信就算红鸟没办法出和大都会或红袜同等级的薪
资，Pujols还是不会离开圣路易。当时红鸟撒了大把的钞票续签Holliday时，我曾大力的
批评他们的作法，但是如果这有助于签下Pujols，我将会对这价码十分满意。
How will the Cardinals advance on the analytical front
红鸟的棒球数据分析技术会怎么进步（我不太确定是这个意思吗）
All signs point to the Cardinals having a very analytical front office. With
all of the potential new advances in technology this year (Hit f/x, Trackman,
as well as more comprehensive statistical database), I wonder how the
Cardinals will continue to gain a competitive advantage through analysis and
technology.
所有的迹象都指出红鸟是个分析技术领先的团队。我很好奇红鸟在今年出现了许多新的
分析技巧和更完整资料的状况下，要怎么保持他们的竞争力。
第一次翻译，有很多不通顺和意思不明的地方还要请大家指教。这篇的作者看来比较主观
，用了很多 I（我），所以我就照着原文的意思把他个人的主观风格翻出来，不知道大家
觉得是好还是不好。