Five questions: Seattle Mariners
by Matthew Carruth
March 22, 2010
Who is going to do the catching?
谁是捕手?
Kenji Johjima had been the incumbent starter heading into the 2009 season,
but a prolonged absence for the World Baseball Classic opened the door for
Rob Johnson to gain a lot of valuable time working with the Mariners pitching
staff. The increased trust he developed contributed to Johnson eventually
winning the starting role from Johjima. Johjima departed this past offseason,
so the job would appear to have been handed to Johnson, but it may not work
out that way.
2009年时乔治马是原定的先发捕手，但因WBC造成的缺席使Rob Johnson得到了宝贵的
时间。投手群对他的信任最终使得Rob Johnson拿到了先发捕手的位置。今年乔治马
的离开使得先发捕手看起来是Johnson的囊中物，但也可能不是那么一回事。
Johnson is coming back from a multitude of injuries suffered during the 2009
season and may begin the 2010 season on the disabled list. Meanwhile, Adam
Moore has stepped up and might usurp the starting role from Johnson much as
Johnson did from Johjima. The Mariners organization loves Moore, but also
loves defense (at least publicly) from the position, something that has held
Moore back a bit. This spring has seen Moore look a lot more comfortable
behind the plate however and with Johnson's ailments, he has been getting in
quality time with the staff, becoming more comfortable.
Johnson正从去年得到的一大堆伤病中恢复，并可能开季时仍在伤兵名单中。同时，Adam
Moore正在虎视眈眈著先发捕手的职位，正如同Rob去年对乔治马所做的一样。水手高层
满喜欢Moore的，但因为对防守的追求(至少公开宣称过)，Moore占了一点劣势。不过今
年春训时Moore看起来蹲的还不错。
The organization seems to favor Moore over Johnson long term anyway, thanks
to Moore's higher ceiling with the stick. No matter how much they like
Moore's improvements thus far, the Mariners are certainly going to be wary
about anointing him the starting catcher with Johnson as the backup. That is
a lot of inexperience at a position deemed crucial for its leadership. A more
veteran catcher on the active roster seems likely.
长期来看，由于Moore的长打潜力较佳，水兵高层比起Johnson来更喜欢Moore。然而，
不管他们多爱Moore目前的进步，水兵仍需要慎重考虑Moore和Johnson谁先发较佳。捕
手是一个需要经验来证明领导能力的位置。一个老将捕手感觉会比年轻捕手好一些。
The Mariners brought in Josh Bard this winter in the hopes that he would fill
that exact role but according to scouts, he has looked terrible and rumors
are that he is not long for the team. With little else in the way of veteran
presence at backstop—Guillermo Quiroz isn't impressing anyone, either—a
minor trade seems likely to fill that backup position at least at the
beginning of the season. After that, who knows? It is likely that no true
starting catcher emerges at all this season and instead the Mariners spend
the year figuring out what they have in Moore and Johnson.
水兵今年冬天也补进了Josh Bard并希望他能有所发挥，但根据球探报告，Bard打的糟
透了并谣传在队里的时日不多了。由于老将的缺乏 - Guillermo Quiroz看起来也不怎
么样 - ，一个小小的交易也许能够补上开季时候补捕手的空缺。不过，谁知道呢？说
不定水兵会花一整季来研究Moore跟Johnson哪个比较好。
Will the hitters score runs?
打者能得分吗？
It's a simple enough question and easy to understand why it gets asked so
often. The Mariners were a dismal hitting team in 2009 and lost Adrian Beltre
and Russell Branyan. At best, some would say, the additions of Milton Bradley
and Chone Figgins might cancel out those departures, but that would still
leave the Mariners as one of the worst offenses in the game, maybe even the
worst. It's an understandable concern, but it's wrong.
这是一个超简单、超好理解为何常被提起的问题。去年水兵就已经够贫打了，还失去了
吹哥跟布拉娘。也许有些人会说，在最好的情况下，Milton Bradley和腿姬能够弥补前
两位离队的效应。然而水兵依旧是最贫打的球队之一，说不定比去年更糟。我们可以理
解你们的担忧，但它并不正确。
There's also the urge to project the coming year by comparing the roster
turnover to the 2009 stats. That's a poor way of projecting and the main
reason is that it treats last season's numbers as sacrosanct. They aren't and
they ultimately serve no good purpose on a team level. In 2009, the Mariners
batted .258 as a team but just .235 with runners in scoring position. The
average team sees a rise in batting average under those scenarios and the
difference there explains a lot of why the Mariners only managed to plate 640
runs.
是有一派人们主张利用2009年的统计成绩，加上阵容的改变，来预测即将来临的球季。
然而这是个不准确的作法。主要的原因是这方法过于高估去年球季数字的准确度，但从
球队的层级来看这个预测方法并不好。2009年水兵团队打击率是.258，但得点圈打击率
只有.235。一般来说，得点圈打击率都比通算打击率高。水兵和其他球队的不同解释了
为什么他们去年只拿了640分。
BaseRuns says the Mariners should have scored about 675 times in 2009, wOBA
says around 700. Either way, the picture that luck-neutral metrics paint is
vastly different from the one most people have hanging in their mental
gallery. Furthermore, the Mariners got almost nothing offensively out of
catcher, shortstop, third base or left field. Projection-wise, Figgins might
be roughly equal to Adrian Beltre, but Beltre was awful in 2009 and Figgins
in a better fit for Safeco Field anyway.
BaseRuns认为水兵去年应该要拿675分。wOBA计算结果认为水兵应该要拿700分左右。
两种预测指标都和水兵实际的表现有相当大的落差。此外，水兵的补手、游击手、三
垒手和左外野手基本上都是自杀棒次。从预测值来看，腿姬和吹哥在打击上的表现相
差不大，但吹哥去年打的糟透了，而腿姬在属性上也比较适合Safeco Field.
What matters is building up a projection of runs scored based on the team as
it is now, not what it was before. Going via that route gives an expected
amount of runs scored by the Mariners in the low 700s. That's not
earth-shattering by any means, but it is a far sight better than the previous
year and far enough removed from the dregs of the AL to allow them to be
competitive.
得分能力的预测应该基于球队的现在，而非球队的过去。从这点来看，水兵今年应该可
以拿个七百多分。这并非天大的进步，但比去年好的太多。这应该足够使水兵从落后群
提升到具有竞争力。
Will the hitters prevent runs?
野手们能守住分数吗？
Last season the Mariners' fielders combined to save 86 runs according to UZR
and about 61 runs by Plus/Minus. No matter how you sliced it, unless you used
a stupid way like fielding percentage, the Mariners were among the league's
best in defense in 2009. That went a long way toward preventing runs from
scoring and keeping them in ballgames that their offense had no right to be
in. Will that continue into 2010?
UZR计算去年水兵野手们守住了86分，而Plus/Minus则算出水兵野手们守住了61分。不
论你从什么角度分析 (除非你用了像守备率之类的笨方法)，水兵都是去年最佳防守球
队之一。他们不让对手得分及不让对手把球轰出场外。今年仍就能持续这样的表现吗？
Projecting defense is difficult since it is so unstable and hard to measure,
but going position by position reveals a lot of hope for the Mariner pitchers
this coming season. Russell Branyan was the primary first baseman last season
and though he did a lot of work to become an adequate fielder, Casey Kotchman
assumes the role this year and is renowned for his defensive prowess. Suffice
to say that will likely be an upgrade.
因为它的不稳定性及难以测量，防守预测一向是很困难的。但若我们一个位置一个位置
来看，水兵的投手群们将会对守备信心满满。布拉娘是去年主要的一垒手，但他离"胜任"
还有一段距离。Casey Kotchman今年应该会拿到先发一垒手的位置，而他素以好防守者
闻名。我们可以相信一垒手在防守上是有升级的。
Jose Lopez is a perfectly adequate second baseman but it appears that he is
losing that position to Figgins, a well above average fielder at third base
with some prior experience at second base and the natural gifts to be a
better fit at the keystone. Likewise, Lopez is a better fit at third base.
Positional adjustments rate the two positions as equally demanding, so
balancing the possible benefits (tailoring the player more to the particular
rigors of each position) and pitfalls (learning a new, or nearly new,
position) of the switch leads me to call it a wash.
Jose Lopez在二垒守的很好，但看起来他的二垒位置会被腿姬抢走。腿姬以三垒手来
比较是超出平均的，而他先前也守过二垒，并且他的天赋看起来更适合守二垒。同时
Jose Lopez以天赋来看，他比较适合守三垒。防守要求在这两个位置来看是差不多的，
而对我来说调整守位的好处 (把正确的人放在正确的位置上) 和坏处 (他们要重新学
习新的守位) 差不多是可以互相抵消的。
Jack Wilson gets the nod at shortstop for the full season, or at least as
long as he's healthy, as opposed to taking over midstream from the awful
Yuniesky Betancourt as he did last year. In the outfield, Bradley, Eric
Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans will rotate through left field and all three are
average to slightly above at the position. Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro
Suzuki return in their starring roles.
要是Jack Wilson能保持健康 (甚至只是在他健康出赛的时候) ，游击防守就会比去年
糟透了的Yuniesky Betancourt好的多。至于外野手们，Bradley、Eric Byrnes跟Ryan
Langerhans会在左外野轮流出赛，而这三个人的防守都比平均稍稍好一点。Franklin
Gutierrez和一朗也会持续先发。
Without having a good grasp on rating catcher's defense, the seven other
positional spots on the field all look at have at worst a league average
fielder in place and in many cases such as Gutierrez, Ichiro, Wilson and
possibly Figgins, there is a certifiably good glove. You also expect league
leaders to regress the next season, but the Mariners have built themselves a
potentially powerful defensive force. Don't be caught off guard if they not
only repeat at the top, but even exceed last season's rank.
尽管我们没办法衡量补手防守的能力，其他七个位置的防守至少都是联盟平均，更别
提Gutierrez、一朗、Wilson (腿姬也许也能算) 是金手套等级的。你当然能预测这
些人守备明年会退步，但至少水兵已经拥有看起来非常强悍的防守能力。如果他们不
只维持住守备，甚至更上层楼，请别感到太过惊讶。
Will the top of the rotation stay healthy?
轮职前段能够保持健康吗？
Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are the dominant storyline for the Mariners in
2010—one a former Cy Young winner, the other seemingly destined to be a
future winner. A whole lot of the Mariners fate rides on those two arms. The
last time such an arrangement was in place, 2008, it went disastrously as
Erik Bedard never proved to be the answer because of injuries and the rest of
the team was never in the sort of shape that then-GM Bill Bavasi thought. Is
there better luck on the horizon this time around?
King和Cliff Lee2010年水兵最重要的话题 - 一个前CY得主，和一个看起来注定要得CY
的投手。水兵今年的命运有很大一部份是握在他们的手中。上一次类似的情形发生在08
年，但Erik Bedard因伤所困导致了水兵并不像前GM Bill Bavasi所想的一样好。这次
会比较好一点吗？
Though neither Hernandez nor Lee has gone through any extensive injuries in
the past, the concerns are there this season because of their respective
workloads from the past couple seasons. Hernandez threw more than 190 innings
each of the past four seasons, but jumped nearly 40 innings in 2009 to 238.2.
He faced 120 more batters than he ever had previously and tossed about 450
more pitches than ever before.
尽管King和Lee在过去从未有过严重的伤病，过去几年的负担仍使人们担心今年他们有
可能会受伤。King在06年到08都丢了至少190局，而去年丢了238.2局 - 多了快40局。
他去年多面对了120名打者并多丢了450球。
Lee posted his second straight season at more than 220 innings and has
already suffered a minor strain in his abdomen, the same type of injury that
he's faced twice before. Waiting behind them are Ryan Rowland-Smith who
suffered an arm injury last season that kept him out a decent amount of time
and the always fragile Bedard, who is returning from a torn labrum. There is
clearly no certain bet at the top of the Mariners rotation this year. but
then again, when is there ever with pitchers?
Lee则是连续第二年丢了220局以上，而且像他过去曾遭遇两次的情形一样，腹部有些轻
微的拉伤。之后的是RRS - 去年手臂受伤让他没丢多少局 - 和从torn labrum回来的总
是很脆弱的Bedard。水兵今年的前段轮值看起来并不是那么的坚不可摧。但同样的，又
有谁能够保证投手一定不会受伤？
When will Dustin Ackley show up in Seattle?
Dustin Ackley今年有机会上来吗？
Drafted with the second overall pick last June, Dustin Ackley was considered
one of the most accomplished and polished college hitters of recent memory.
There have been few questions that his bat wlll play in the major leagues,
and soon. What has been tough to figure out, however, has been where on the
field that bat will be playing.
去年选秀第二顺位Dustin Ackley是近年来被认为最接近完成品的大学打者之一。
不怎么意外的话，他有机会很快就在大联盟亮相。但比较难确定的是，他会守哪个
位置？
As is true of most great baseball athletes, Ackley spent time at shortstop
and pitcher in high school, but moved to the outfield upon reaching college.
Regarded as a guy with the tools to eventually handle center field, Ackley
seemed destined to retain a high value spot on the defensive spectrum. An arm
injury put a damper on that destiny, as Tommy John surgery necessitated a
move to first base to avoid putting too much stress on the arm.
就像许多好的棒球选手一样，Ackley高中的时候是守游击手和当投手。但他升大学后，
被移到外野守备去。以一个有能力守中外野的选手来看，Ackley似乎能守一些较难守的
位置。但手臂受伤毁了这一切。TJ手术迫使他去守一垒，避免给他的手臂太多的压力。
All that time at first base left scouts with an unsatisfactory amount of
games in which to scout Ackley's defense. He appeared to be too talented to
waste at first base and most people assumed that he would move back to the
outfield as a pro. The Mariners had a different idea, and began giving him
reps at second base last fall. With Suzuki and Gutierrez plugging up
two-thirds of the outfield for the foreseeable future and prospect Michael
Saunders the de facto next in line at left field, second base presented
perhaps the quickest path to the majors for Ackley. The only question would
be how well he could make the transition and what kind of delay that it would
cause.
长时间的一垒生涯使得球探们无法充足了解Ackley守备的好坏。他的天赋使他守一垒
有点浪费，所以大多数的人认为他进职棒后会回到外野去。水兵球团则有个不一样的
点子 - 把他移到二垒去。有一朗和Gutierrez挡在前面，而且Michael Saunders看起
来会是未来几年的左外野手，守二垒也许会是Ackley最快升上大联盟的方法。唯一的
问题是他能适应的多好，及他要花多久时间适应。
Any fears about retarding his development due to the position switch appear
to have been assuaged quickly, though. Snippets coming out of Mariners spring
training have been nothing but raves for Ackley's performance thus far. My
own short scouting trip down to Arizona involved watching Ackley make a
decently difficult over the shoulder catch at second and he showed no flaws
in limited action.
然而，像"换守位会不会迟缓他的发展"这样的问题很快就随风消逝了。目前为止所有
从水兵春训营出来的人都对Ackley的表现赞不绝口。我自己 (作者自己) 也有去春训
营看看Ackley，而他表现的完美无暇。
*这里有点疑问的是Ackley是不是虽被身体状况限制但依旧守的很好...*
Ackley will start the season at Double-A almost certainly, but if he
continues to draw these kinds of reviews on the defensive end, and his bat
progresses as expected for a hitter with his track record, Ackley, who wasn't
expected to be on the scene until 2011 at the earliest, might be forcing the
Mariners hand as early as this summer. In fact, his promotion might hinge
equally on how quickly the Mariners can find a taker for Lopez as on Ackley's
performance in isolation.
目前看起来Ackley会从2A开季。但他如果防守上维持这样的表现，而他的棒子也能够
满足大家对他的期望，原本被认为最早要2011才会上大联盟的Ackley说不定今年夏天
就上大联盟了。事实上，Ackley升等的速度也要看水兵能不能找到球队愿意收下Jose
Lopez。
Matthew Carruth is an editor for The Hardball Times. He welcomes any and all
sorts of communication at his email.