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Five questions: Toronto Blue Jays
by Craig Burley
March 31, 2010
1. When will the team be sold?
什么时候要卖掉蓝杰伦？
Hopefully, soon.
希望快一点囉
We begin on a serious down note, but the 2010 Blue Jays are likely to be a
sonata comprised of a series of down notes. With payroll dramatically slashed
and widespread trade rumors dogging every established player (bar the
untradeable Vernon Wells) the Blue Jays have begun to face the new era After
Ted (Rogers, the founder of the team's ultimate owner Rogers Communications
Inc.).
哎呀呀，一开始就得谈论这个严肃不堪的话题。不过蓝杰伦今年的球季可能比我
们现在的话题更严肃不堪阿。在大砍薪资和一阵阵的交易传言风暴后，蓝杰伦终
于要离开 Ted Rogers 时代面临新纪元了。
Vernon Wells 表示：ㄖㄨㄟ～ㄖㄨㄟ～ㄖㄨㄟ～ (2009 OPS+ = 88)
Ted Rodgers 表示：我的宝藏都不在那里，要就拣去吧～
Ted wasn't the world's greatest baseball fan, and he didn't understand a
thing about running a ball team. What he did have, was tight control over his
company, and a personal desire to see the team win (within reasonable
economic parameters), which had inspired his decision to buy the Blue Jays in
the first place. Ted's death in December of 2008 meant that the team had lost
much of its raison d'etre and it showed in the meaningless meandering last
season as succession matters within the Rogers empire sorted themselves out.
Ted 不是一个很棒的球迷（婉转），他不懂怎么经营。他所做的只有紧紧控制住
他的公司和看到胜利（至少在预算内合理的胜场数）。当 Ted 在 08 年过世后，
Roger's firm 继续掌控蓝杰伦就不再显得如此必要了，甚至在 Ted 继承权的安
排中也未对蓝杰伦多所着墨，这让蓝杰伦去年球季看起来像是行尸走肉般的漫游
球队。
The Blue Jays are by no means a crown jewel of the Rogers empire, from a
business point of view. The sports properties (Jays, Rogers Centre, and the
right to host NFL Bills games) that Rogers owns represent less than 1.7
percent of the revenue of the enterprise as a whole and the Jays are only a
part of that. No one who matters at Rogers cares much about the Jays anymore,
in a business run by accountants who are likely concerned about a team in
decline on and off the field.
Sports property 在 Roger's firm 中仅占很小的产值。任何注意 Roger's firm
的人都不会对这块小饼有什么兴趣，就商业的角度而言，也不会有什么会计师对一
个没落的球队的球场大小事感兴趣。
Given the widespread apathy that has greeted the Blue Jays from the Toronto
(and Canadian) public in the last 10 years, it has not come as a surprise to
followers of the team that payroll has been dramatically slashed and minor
expenses (such as the hiring of a few unemployed scouts cast aside by other
teams) trumpeted as major turning points in the team's approach. The apathy
of the fans has finally, in an accountant-driven regime, given rise to apathy
from the owners. The likely avenue is that the team will be sold, although as
recently as last October executives from Rogers gave indications that the
team was not for sale. But they had already shown their hand in August; their
commitment to the Toronto Blue Jays was significantly coupled with (according
to the Canadian Press) a commitment that the baseball club's costs be
controlled. CEO Nadir Mohammed's vision is that costs are to be controlled, a
poor cousin to the proven "if you build it they will come" school of building
a winner on the field and in the market.
假使这十年来蓝鸟在运动市场上无法引起狂热是事实，造成蓝杰伦接下来的大砍薪
资和小联盟球探扩增并不让人太过讶异。市场的冷落，最终影响了球队的经营政策。
蓝杰伦似乎仅剩被出售一途，尽管 Roger's firm 承诺不会出售球队－－但连带的
保证球队必会缩压薪资。像是贫穷版的“梦幻成真”，主角“Nadir Mohammed”紧
握著一点小小的预算追逐一个建成棒球场的梦想。
It's clear that someone with a serious interest in operating the team will
need to purchase it before success can be regained on the field. The current
administration is led (make no mistake) by The Barefoot Onanist, renowned
yesterday's man Paul Beeston, as team president. Sometimes a cigar is more,
indeed, than just a cigar. It was Beeston who installed the recent office
gofer in the GM's chair, in a move which reminds one of nothing so much as
The Hudsucker Proxy. Beeston (long a courtier of power and a close friend of
Bud Selig) seems to be doing nothing more complex than driving the market
value of the club down, and the way he dominates the conversation with a
lickspittle local sports press (with his general manager nodding furiously in
confused assent beside him) is depressingly familiar to this erstwhile
Montreal Expos fan. So long as someone besides a Beeston-led group eventually
purchases the team, we should begin to imagine the Jays slowly returning to
realistic contention.
像 Ray Kinsella （“梦幻成真”主角）一样，任何想要经营球队的人，都必须先
丢下一大把时间、心力和资金，才能慢慢的走向梦想的实现。目前的高层决定让 Paul
Beeston 掌职 CEO（这句麻烦帮译）。有时一条菸不只是一条菸，就像 Paul Beeston
不只是一个蠢蛋，而是蠢蛋中的蠢蛋。Beeston 特地雇用一个专司杂务而作不了什
么像“金钱帝国”中的大事的跑腿。Beestton（这个 Bud Selig 的好友和忠实的狗）
看来做不了任何比拉低球队市场价值还复杂的任务，而他和狗腿运动记者的对话（
一旁还有个已经胡乱得点头的倒楣 GM），想必引起了不少当年蒙特罗博览队迷那种
似曾相似的绝望感吧。Beeston 领军的队伍从来都是沦落到被身边人捧走，而这次
的蓝杰伦呢？等著看吧.....
2. So all is lost for the Jays then?
那难道蓝杰伦没希望了吗？
Fortunately for the team's fans, life is not always so simple; those who
deserve to lose don't always find a way to do so. It would be foolish to
pretend that the trade of the greatest player to ever don a Blue Jays uniform
has "reinvigorated" the team, but the Blue Jays were not a bad team last year
(frequent appearances to the contrary) and although they have lost much that
is of value, there are a passel of young players and returnees who, if three
or four major things broke right, could push toward Wild Card contention.
很幸运的，再糟的事情也总是有转圜的余地，无论你怎么的想去弄烂它。假装那
些交易能让蓝杰伦重生是还满蠢的，但蓝杰伦去年的确还不错啦（好像常常看起
来不是这样？）。虽然他们失去很多，但他们有很多很多的年轻的和回锅的球员，
如果其中三或四个能冲破极限，蓝杰伦还是能参与外卡争夺战的。
麻仓叶表示：极限这种东西多死几次就冲破了。
The Blue Jays aren't starting from so low that they'd be a historic type of
"miracle team" (like the 1961 Reds, the 1967 Red Sox, 1969 Mets or 2006
Tigers). Those four teams came from considerably further away than these Jays
to win pennants. In the New Historical Abstract, Bill James identified four
factors that the 1960s teams had in common:
相较于那些“传奇球队”（1961，Reds、1967，Red Soxs、1969，Mets、2006，
Tigers），蓝杰伦的出发点还不算太糟。在《New Historical Abstract》中
Bill James 针对 1960 年代的三只传奇球队做出了四归结：
（文者试图写点蓝杰伦的契机。但是不是真有希望，就请自己看看囉。）
1. The team makes some good trades.
2. The team comes up with some young players.
3. The team's existing young players come through big.
4. They can have guys having career years.
一、皆有做出成功的交易，
二、皆有年轻的球员，
三、皆有年轻的球员克服障碍，
四、都有人准备冲出生涯年。
James mentions a fifth factor that applies now, free agency, that didn't
apply in the 1960s.
Bill James 还提出了一点可能帮助一个低潮的球队复出的因素，FA，不过
并没有点在那三只传奇球队身上。
James doesn't talk about a key factor regarding points 1 and 4 : it's usually
younger players who are the positive players acquired in trades, or who have
the career years in question. (Think of the 2006 Tigers, who got a great year
from Jeremy Bonderman and developed Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander).
This brings up a key factor in the Jays' 2010 chances, which is that although
they did lose talent in the offseason, they have several key young players.
Travis Snider, Adam Lind, No. 2 starter Ricky Romero, and No. 4 starter Marc
Rzepczynski are keys there, as well as securing the eventual return of Jesse
Litsch. Of course, surrounding that young core is a large number of older
players, none of whom are superficially all that impressive. Nor do the Jays
have (any longer) the frontline star power of the three 1960s "miracle teams"
(the Reds had Frank Robinson and Vada Pinson; the Red Sox had Yaz, along with
George Scott and Tony Conigliaro; the Mets had Seaver and Koosman on the
mound). These Blue Jays have a young and soon-to-be-ready hitter in Brett
Wallace, a young star-in-the-making in Snider, a developing bat in Lind, and
a fine and still youthful second baseman in Aaron Hill, but no superstars.
There's any number of ways in which those four players could put together a
terrific group of seasons and push the Blue Jays over .500. The Jays in
recent years have been derided for a weak farm system, but that is partially
due to an aggressive pushing of the best young players up the chain, so that
they hit the majors early.
James 并没有提到第一点和第四点的一个共通关键：通常都是年轻或正有机会面
临生涯年的球员，会在交易中被提出（2006 年的 Tigers，Jeremy Bonderman 投
出代表作，而阵中亦有 Curtis Granderson、Justin Verlander 等大将）。这些（？）
让蓝杰伦的 2010 年球季有了一点希望，尽管少了几个大咖，蓝杰伦还是有几个
年轻小伙子。Travis Snider、Adam Lind、2nd Ricky Romero、4th Marc Rzepczynski
以及留下的 Jesse Litsch。这些新秀以外的老球员并没有特别的令人印象深刻，
也不像那些传奇球队的台柱（Reds 的 Frank Robinson、Vada Pinson；Red Sox
的燕姿、George Scott、Tony Conigliaro；Mets 的 Seaver、Koosman）蓝杰伦
现在则有即将完成的 Brett Wallace、年轻的新秀 Snider、正在成长的 Lind、
很不错且年轻的二垒手 Aron Hill，只是没什么大咖级的而已。这样的组合可能
会发生很多种结果，也或许能将蓝杰伦推上五成大关。但请记得，这些小伙子当
初是被赶着上大联盟的，因此这几年来蓝杰伦的农场的贫乏也常被人笑话。
Winning now is never likely, but as the "miracle teams" analysis shows, even
in Toronto it's possible. The biggest problem, perhaps, is that management
has not embraced the concept. The Jays are appropriately rank outsiders,
maybe 60-1 or more to win the division. But it's something.
胜利当然是不可能的，但有了那些传奇球队的例子，或许蓝杰伦其实是有点机会。
最大的问题或许会出在 GM 是否愿意相信并尝试。蓝杰伦当然不是很强力的竞争
者，但总也是一个竞争者。
3. Where are the biggest losses?
Marco Scutaro performed well for the Jays last season and will be hugely
missed. And certainly no loss comes bigger than Roy Halladay, the talismanic
leader of the Jays and the league's best starting pitcher of the decade.
Another loss, entirely unheralded but perhaps equally damaging, came when
Brad Arnsberg, who has been the Jays' pitching coach for five seasons
(2005-2009), left on Oct. 30, 2009 to take the pitching coach position with
the Astros.
Houston, you're getting a good one.
Arnsberg has been nothing short of a revelation to a longtime Jays watcher
who has over many years watched the team systematically destroy its young
base of arms through experimentation, neglect, carelessness and cluelessness.
Arnsberg always had a plan; for example, he rarely if ever brought a young
starter to the majors if he thought he wasn't ready, but he reached
innumerable times into Double-A for arms that few if any followers of the
team had ever heard of, and turned them instantly into average major league
starters. He did it with Gustavo Chacin in his first season; did it with
Casey Janssen, Shaun Marcum, then Litsch, then Rzepczynski and Romero (whose
career in the minors was going nowhere fast). He even got some good starts
out of Ty Taubenheim. In the meantime, he took waiver-wire journeymen from
Scott Downs and Brian Tallet to Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp, and helped make
them into good major league relievers. In almost every case Arnsberg did it
with old-fashioned values; he got his players to work harder and get
physically stronger; to be more aggressive with hitters and to work to
preserve their stamina on the mound. It helped immensely, of course, to be
able to point to "Exhibit H", the ultimate example of dedication, hard work
and focus sitting next to them in the locker room. But Arnsberg has developed
fine young pitchers in his earlier stints as well. There are pitchers, good
ones, up and down both leagues who rave about what Arnsberg has done for
their games. Arnsberg's Marlins staff thought of him in the same light, more
than a mere coach, during his tenure there.
The Jays' new regime, since they don't understand the value of a good coach
outside his ability to drink and play cards with the manager, let Arnsberg go
without a fight. Jim Bouton and Jim Brosnan, amongst others, have identified
two distinct types of coaches in baseball: teachers intent on imparting the
best knowledge they can find to their pupils the players; and backslappers
whose strongest skill is playing the manager's favorite card games, but not
too well, and telling his men "don't think too much out there, son."
Arnsberg's replacement as pitching coach is the bullpen coach, Bruce "Pappy"
Walton; Walton has worked with Arnsberg these last few years but the reader
receives no points for guessing which type of coach best describes a man who
has earned the nickname "Pappy." Walton may turn out to be Arnsberg's equal,
but they got less than 50 percent value: a sure thing in the hand versus a
single shadow lurking in the bush.
4. Who are the younger players to watch?
I would identify one player on each side of the ball as keys to the Jays'
season. The first is the young 22-year-old outfielder Travis Snider. Snider
has impressed me with his approach since coming to the team; he looked a bit
lumpish and oafish as a 20-year-old rookie (though one with a very impressive
bat). He has since lost some of that football weight and looks positively
trim by comparison. Snider had some problems adapting to the pitching last
year and fought a bad slump (.192 in 54 PA with only one extra-base hit)
before being sent down in May; he returned in August and hit much better; the
last 32 days of the season he had 110 PA and posted an OPS of .851, directly
in line with expectations. Snider's continued development is of extreme
interest because of the power potential he brings to a lineup that often has
underperformed in that aspect.
The pitcher is Romero, the former high first-round pick out of East Los
Angeles by way of the great baseball program at Cal State-Fullerton. Romero
was drafted as a lefty with immense promise but while he remained lefthanded,
the promise seemed to leach away from him during his first years in the
minors. Brought to major league camp at the beginning of last season,
Arnsberg helped change his approach radically, and Romero took off and
attacked the league like it was Illinois Nazis, compiling 13 brilliant
starts. Then the "dark side" to the Arnsberg/Gaston regime began to show
itself; Romero threw six long, punishing starts in a row in the space of 26
days in the summer heat of late June and early July, and he wasn't the same
pitcher for the rest of the year, posting a 5.52 ERA after a 3.00 ERA before
then. Romero could potentially come back and nail down that No. 2 starter
berth and be one of the AL's best.
5. What was it like?
Blue Jays fans should remember that question, because that is what your
grandchild who loves baseball may well ask you one day. Fix it in your mind,
and fix your answer while the memories are fresh.
Because it was awe-inspiring. The Doc Show was like nothing else I have ever
seen, and I seriously doubt I will ever see the likes of it again, because
the combination of qualities that went into making Roy Halladay are just
unlikely to emerge here for a very, very long time. Although a starting
pitcher only takes the mound once every five days (and therefore can't
provide the day-to-day on-field leadership role of a position player)
Halladay occupied a similar role to Wendel Clark's iconic role that is
seemingly imprinted in this city's (indeed, this country's) civic memory.
Roy's virtues, it is widely felt, are our virtues, at least the public
virtues we profess to admire; and therefore are those most widely admired in
a public figure. Consistency, dedication, hard work, indomitability,
determination to succeed and to improve oneself. He never put a foot wrong,
in any way, on or off the field.
If you've ever had a job, a difficult one that demands your care and pay
attention all the time, without relent, and where you were always in
competition with others, you can relate to the object lesson that Roy
Halladay provides you with in professionalism and in dedication. Halladay was
the archetype, an athlete that you could, realistically, call a role model.
He will be missed. When I see a pitch delivered on a string, right to the
mitt, on 0-2 this summer, I will think of him.
What was it like? It was beautiful.