※ [本文转录自 RedSox 看板]
作者: nolander (Dent) 看板: RedSox
标题: Re: [讨论] Five questions: Boston Red Sox
时间: Fri Apr 2 03:24:51 2010
※ 引述《appshjkli (猫肉球)》之铭言：
Five questions: Boston Red Sox
by Alex Pedicini
April 01, 2010
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox5/
1. How much better will the defense be?
1. 守备面会进步多少?
Boston upgraded several positions defensively this offseason. The signings of
Marco Scutaro at shortstop, Adrian Beltre at third, and Mike Cameron in
center, and moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left to replace Jason Bay, should all
help to improve Boston's defense. According to UZR, the Red Sox had the
16th-best defense in the league last year at -16.3 runs. I expect that they
should be near the top of this category next season provided these new
acquisitions stay healthy.
瘦袜在守备面升级了好几个位置 Scutaro的游击 吹哥的三垒 卡麦隆的中外
改左外换下接生贝的假抠比, 应该都是明显的升级 从UZR的角度看: -16.3分
瘦袜至少是去年全联盟第16好的 这些新血要是能健康
我期待新球季的瘦袜守备面会是全联盟顶尖的
Beltre will provide an immediate upgrade over the aging and injured Mike
Lowell. Lowell's range has deteriorated, while Beltre is in Gold Glove form.
He missed time last year. but when healthy, he is among the best defensive
third basemen. Scutaro is a solid defender as well. He may not be the whiz
that Alex Gonzalez is, but he at least provides some offensive support as
well. Although not spectacular, he makes the plays you would expect your
shortstop to make. Cameron has earned the reputation as one of the best
defensive center fielders of this era. He possesses great instincts, which is
something Ellsbury has lacked at times. Ellsbury may be better suited for
left field, where he has played very well, albeit in small sample sizes, in
the past.
三垒换成吹哥毫不犹豫的就是超级大升级 跟年长又屁屁痛的麦肉比有点不厚道
但这可是一个真正的金手套三垒哪! 去年虽然不太行可健康的吹哥绝对是顶尖中的顶尖
Scutaro则是个稳定的SS 虽然也许不像A-Gon那么强劲(译按:我想是指臂力)
靠着应该相当稳定的进攻输出 至少会是个攻守端都像样的游击手
(按:反正不会比鲁勾烂啦!)
卡麦隆早已建立外野顶尖守备的名声 比小帅哥更灵的守备直觉
让我们能把守左外似乎更好的小帅哥放在正确的地方
I took a rather unscientific approach to looking at how much the run
prevention would improve from 2009 to 2010. I suggested that a reduction of
somewhere around 80 runs allowed would seem reasonable, putting them at about
650 runs allowed in 2010. This would put them among the best teams in the
league at preventing runs.
我以一个比较不科学的角度看这群新野手能多守下多少分 可能会落在80分上下
也就是说 会掉650分是合理的估计 这将是全联盟守备最不易掉分的球队
Obviously, this will depend on several factors. Cameron is 36 this year and
entering his 16th season in the major leagues. Beltre is coming off an
injury-plagued year, although he does appear healthy now. Scutaro will be 34
this year, and Ellsbury will have to adjust to playing a new everyday
position. Ellsbury's defense has been subject to much scrutiny by Boston fans
and media. His UZR last year was -18.6, which was among the worst of all
full-time center fielders. He should benefit by playing in left alongside
Cameron, and I expect that his numbers will return to being above average
defensively. Dustin Pedroia at second, Kevin Youkilis at first, and J.D. Drew
in right round out a solid all-around defensive unit that should make a vast
improvement from last year.
要达到这么好的表现当然得靠点天意啦...
卡麦隆已经36了 目前健康的吹哥也不知道能不能完全从伤病中恢复 Scutaro也34了...
小帅哥'09守中外的UZR是颇糗的-18.6 在挑剔的袜迷跟媒体面前实在不够亮眼
(按:明明就很多人帮他平反阿) 换守位会是个福音 至少他跟卡麦隆应该能合作愉快
我估计他会是个平均以上的左外 而二垒的嘴炮一垒的光头跟右外的猪早已是最强劲的
右半边守备线 总合起来投手后面将明显比去年守下更多分(按:阿捕手勒!?)
2. Does this lineup need another big bat?
2. 打线揪~~竟需不需要更新个大棒子呢?
After all the Adrian Gonzalez trade talk this winter, the Red Sox decided not
to make a move. Boston lost Jason Bay's production in the outfield and
replaced his bat with Mike Cameron's. The team did upgrade the lineup with
Scutaro and Beltre. While this team may lack a true 40-home-run slugger, it
has depth from top to bottom.
喧闹了整个冬天 一垒大棒ㄟ刚还是没来红袜 失去了贝爷的强劲供输但收进了卡麦隆
Scutaro跟吹哥在攻击面应该是升级 这球队也许不会有40轰的大棒
但深度应该是相当像样了
The Opening Day lineup could look something like this: Ellsbury, Pedroia,
Youkilis, Martinez, Ortiz, Drew, Beltre, Cameron, Scutaro. It is true that no
one player strikes fear into opposing pitchers and managers, but there are no
glaring holes in the order as of now. Ultimately, the team will likely need
to add a big bat down the line. Whether or not this move comes this season
will largely depend on the production of David Ortiz. Ortiz's struggles were
well documented last year. He still managed to slug .462, but this was a far
cry from his previous numbers. If he can return to hitting 30-plus home runs
and slugging over .500, the Red Sox will be pleased.
开幕打序会是:小帅 嘴炮 光头 v马 老爹 猪 吹哥 卡麦隆 Scutaro
即使没有一个能把敌队投手跟教练吓到尿裤子 但也没有一个明显的洞会让粉科男哭哭
大棒是一定要补的 至于多急迫端看老爹表现的威力啦~
去年的糗态世界都看到了 即使留下.462的SLG 比起以前的老爹还是差得远
要是老爹能打出30+ .500 红袜绝对会高潮的!
The organization knows, for the most part, what to expect from Dustin
Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez. While none of them are true
power threats, Youkilis has posted ISOs of .257 and .242 in the last two
seasons. Pedroia and Martinez will provide high averages and the ability to
reach base consistently. J.D. Drew, when healthy, is among Boston's most
productive hitters. He walks at a high rate (14.5 percent for his career) and
has decent power (.221 ISO). He is 34 now and entering his 13th season, but
he will still be able to reach base even as he ages.
球队期待嘴炮 光头跟v马打出相当的状态 但也明白这三支不是真正的大棒
KY前两季的ISO(纯长打率)是.257跟.242 是不错但吓不倒我的
嘴炮跟v马很会上垒 应该能持续在位置上位居联盟前段
而右外那只优雅的猪 健康ㄟ西尊可以说是整队最有建设性的打者
14.5啪的保送率 像样的.221ISO (按:即使不便宜也算是有水准)
即使34了 稳定的上垒能力会让猪很像样的! (猪:上垒?略懂)
Jacoby Ellsbury emerged as a premier base stealer last season after he swiped
70 bags and was caught just 12 times. After struggling for some of the 2008
season as pitchers began to adjust to him, he looked much more comfortable at
the plate last year. Adrian Beltre will be looking to bounce back from a
career-low ISO of .114. He signed a one-year deal in Boston and should
benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Beltre will never again
be the player that hit 48 home runs in 2004, but 25 or more is not out of the
question this season. Cameron, although nearing the end of career, has still
shown some power and should use the wall to his advantage. Scutaro is a
classic moneyball type player and has a penchant for reaching base.
小帅哥则是略懂盗垒 去年70次成功只被抓到12次 (这里不太确定是70次尝试还是?)
在08年的挣扎之后 去年他站上打击区舒服很多了
吹哥应该会从去年的谷底(生涯最低的ISO.114)大反弹 一年约跟芬威会是有利因素
即使04年的48轰是昙花 但25+不会办不到~
已经到了生涯尾端的卡麦隆会利用绿色怪物表现出长打威力的!
Scutaro早已展现出对上垒的爱好 是个典型的钱球选手 没问题低!
3. What can they expect from the back of the rotation?
3. 能对后段轮值有多少期待?
Boston's top three rotation spots appear to be set with Josh Beckett, Jon
Lester, and John Lackey. These three give Boston one of the best pitching
trios in the league. However, there are some big questions about the other
starting spots.
见鬼的强大前三号绝对是全联盟最邀售的铁三角 但后两号问题也不小
Daisuke Matsuzaka finally appears rested and recovered from shoulder fatigue
and weakness that plagued him all of last season. He is not expected to begin
the year on the 25-man roster as he just made his spring training debut last
week. Dice-K threw just 59.2 innings for Boston last year and was completely
ineffective as a result of an injury suffered during the World Baseball
Classic. This was compounded by the fact that he hid his injuries from the
team and then criticized the organization's conditioning program.
牛肉终于从去年的肩伤中走出 虽然赶不上开季 (上周才第一次踏上春训丘)
去年那精美的59.2局 另外他隐瞒伤势且批评球队的训练菜单
说明了WBC是会让牛肉变难吃的.....
Matsuzaka's style has always been unique and oftentimes frustrating to watch.
He is content to nibble at the corners and his pitch counts are often very
high. He walks over four batter per nine innings but also posts high
strikeout numbers. He relies on his deceptiveness and changing speeds to keep
batters off-balance. When healthy he can be a successful pitcher and probably
the best fourth starter in the league. Barring any setbacks, Matsuzaka should
rejoin the team by mid- to late April. For now, the veteran knuckler Tim
Wakefield will fill his void. Wakefield is durable and consistent even as he
enters his 18th major league season.
牛肉的精算风向来是独特且让球迷火大的 他习惯瞄好球带的皮 球数不投满好像会死
造成他每九局保送4个打者左右 但三振率也不可小觑就是
他总是利用速差和多样的变化球摧毁打者的平衡
健康的他手臂能操 绝对是全联盟最强的四号 (按:他当四号 去别队是几号?)
若顺利 四月底大概能重回轮值 那之前就让我们欣赏蝴蝶老荣民的第18春吧!
Clay Buchholz will look to establish himself in Boston's rotation this season
after spending parts of the last two seasons between Boston and Triple-A.
Buchholz has been somewhat of an enigma during his tenure. He burst onto the
scene with a no-hitter in 2007. He has dominated Triple-A hitters with ease,
but his stuff has not always been able to translate into the majors. He did
pitch much better during September and his command is improving.
巴釦子应该会好好的占据轮值一角 不再只是跑龙套
他谜般的实力:07的无安打 屠杀3A且超高的stuff没有完整反映在大联盟的投球中
去年九月明显有进步且控球也变好了
This could be a critical season for Buchholz. He has top-of-the-rotation
stuff, but it is easy to overlook the fact that the 25-year-old has made just
34 career starts. The organization will be looking for him to make 25-30
starts this season. If Buchholz can put the pieces together this year,
Boston's staff could be a force to be reckoned with. If not, I wouldn't be
surprised if Clay were used in a potential trade next year.
本季是关键 他轮值前段的潜力但不可否认的25岁却只先发了34场...
红袜球团期待他先发25~30场 如果投出身价明年大概能拿到长约
要不 就等著看他包一包换支大棒子吧
4. What will happen to Ortiz?
4. 老爹会怎么过?
No player is more loved and respected in Boston than David Ortiz. Big Papi
has been a staple in the middle of the order for Boston and a fan-friendly
ambassador for the organization. This is precisely why last year was such a
painful season for him and fans. Ortiz has, deservedly, been given a longer
leash than most in Boston. Boston is pretty thin at 1B/DH without Ortiz, and
the team is banking on him regaining his form. He did bounce back somewhat
form a horrid start last year but never truly regained his confidence at the
plate.
老爹大概是红袜国史上最钟爱的选手了吧 长时间扛下中心棒次且热爱红袜的他
说是红袜的精神领袖也不过分 因此去年的挣扎让他跟袜迷都痛苦万分
他的地位让他有更多的机会找回自己 要是他表现差 红袜的DH其实不太好看
他从未真正找回对棒子的信心...去年末的小反弹还不够阿阿阿阿阿阿阿阿阿
Ortiz will be out to show that last year was a fluke and prove the steroid
skeptics wrong. There are concerns, however, that the 34-year old is aging
rapidly and his power is diminishing. On top of this he has dealt with some
nagging injuries, including a wrist injury that forced him to miss time in
2008. After posting ISOs of over .300 his first five seasons in Boston,
Ortiz's numbers have dipped to .243 and .224 in '08 and '09. Dave Allen of
Fangraphs pointed out that his power to right has dwindled as his power to
left has risen. He appeared to be swinging and missing more often and was
having trouble getting around on good fastballs, both of which could be
indicative of his aging.
老爹会拿起棒子说去年的糗态是意外并且叫那些攻击他用药的人闭嘴!!
然而34岁的他老化速度惊人地快 炮瓦的消失在手腕伤势催化下更是明显
在红袜的头五季破三成的ISO让近两季的.243跟.224像____一样烂
Fangraphs的Dave Allen说老爹往右拉的力道变差了但往左的力道却增加
挥空率变高且打不到刚速球都可能是老化的表现...
THT Forecasts project for a .364 wOBA and 1.6 WAR, which compares favorably
to other projections for Ortiz. This is a far cry from his past numbers, but
still the Red Sox will gladly take this type of production. Behind Ortiz,
Boston's options are Mike Lowell or Jeremy Hermida, so Ortiz is a significant
upgrade here. His days are likely numbered as Boston's DH. If he gets off to
a slow start, I think Boston will begin to look elsewhere. The Sox cannot
afford to watch and hope the old Ortiz returns, especially in the competitive
AL East. For now, Ortiz will be given every opportunity to start and knock in
runs.
THT Forecasts认为老爹会打出.364wOBA跟1.6WAR 已经是对老爹很友善的预测
这跟过去的大棒老爹还是有一段距离但要是成真红袜会很感恩的
老爹之后 卖肉跟Jeremy Hermida是可能的备胎 然而这两条胎都不算好胎
红袜的DH就是老爹 但要是开季很糗 球团会迅速找更好的备胎
再花半季等老爹恢复只会让美东列强偷笑而已
目前老爹还有机会 我们期待他打进更多分数
5. Can they top the Yankees?
5. 能阻止纽约人吗?
This is the question every year in Boston. The Red Sox were more active this
winter, spending more money than their adversaries in New York. As it stands
right now, CHONE projects for 99 wins for New York and 93 for Boston. As much
as it pains me to say, I think the Yankees will be the team to beat. Boston
will have a difficult time keeping up with the Yankees' slugging lineup.
每年这都是个问题 但今年主动的帅哥经理表现出了企图心
CHONE预测纽约99胜而红袜93....
我个人痛苦的说...红袜应该会追纽约的强大打线追的很辛苦
New York may win the division, but I certainly feel an eventual ALCS match-up
is in the future. The Red Sox are built to win in the postseason as their
staff will give them a huge advantage in any short series. They should be
competitive with New York throughout the season, although the expectations
are that another World Series may be in store this year.
纽约人应该会拿到分区冠军 但我有信心不管怎样红袜也会进入ALCS的
强大的轮值让红袜在季后赛有相当的优势 整季跟纽约厮杀会很辛苦
但我期待红袜今年再拿下一个世界大赛桂冠!!!
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不好意思 第一次翻译 中途有的形容方式是我自己想的
但相信不出原意太多
请各位指教~