原文网址：
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox5/
缩网址：
http://tinyurl.com/yemur72
Five questions: Boston Red Sox
by Alex Pedicini
April 01, 2010
1. How much better will the defense be?
防守能够变多好？
Boston upgraded several positions defensively this offseason. The signings of
Marco Scutaro at shortstop, Adrian Beltre at third, and Mike Cameron in
center, and moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left to replace Jason Bay, should all
help to improve Boston's defense. According to UZR, the Red Sox had the
16th-best defense in the league last year at -16.3 runs. I expect that they
should be near the top of this category next season provided these new
acquisitions stay healthy.
红袜季前升级了许多守位的防守。Marco Scutaro站游击、Adrian Beltre站三垒、
Mike Cameron站中外野、然后把Jacoby Ellsbury移防左外取代Jason Bay，应该都
能提升防守。根据UZR，红袜去年有全联盟第16好的守备(-16.3 runs)。如果这些
守位上的新面孔能够保持健康，下一季在这个项目上该有接近顶尖的表现。
Beltre will provide an immediate upgrade over the aging and injured Mike
Lowell. Lowell's range has deteriorated, while Beltre is in Gold Glove form.
He missed time last year. but when healthy, he is among the best defensive
third basemen. Scutaro is a solid defender as well. He may not be the whiz
that Alex Gonzalez is, but he at least provides some offensive support as
well. Although not spectacular, he makes the plays you would expect your
shortstop to make. Cameron has earned the reputation as one of the best
defensive center fielders of this era. He possesses great instincts, which is
something Ellsbury has lacked at times. Ellsbury may be better suited for
left field, where he has played very well, albeit in small sample sizes, in
the past.
相较于老化和痛痛的Mike Lowell，Beltre能提供立即的守备升级。Lowell的守备范
围退化而Beltre却是金手套等级的。他去年错过了一些比赛，但是当他保持健康，将
是最好的三垒防守者之一。Scutaro也是稳固的防守者。他可能不是Alex Gonzalez那
样的天才，但至少能提供火力上的支援。尽管不那么引人注目，他能够做到一般要求
一个游击手该做到的。Cameron早已是这个年代最好的中外野防守者之一。他拥有
Ellsbury目前所欠缺的很棒的直觉。Ellsbury可能更适合左外野，虽然是小样本，但
他在那守得不错。
I took a rather unscientific approach to looking at how much the run
prevention would improve from 2009 to 2010. I suggested that a reduction of
somewhere around 80 runs allowed would seem reasonable, putting them at about
650 runs allowed in 2010. This would put them among the best teams in the
league at preventing runs.
我使用了相对不科学的方法来检视2009到2010在防止得分上有多少进步。我想80分左右
的减少该是挺合理的，2010年被得个约650分。这将使他们成为防止失分上最好的球队。
Obviously, this will depend on several factors. Cameron is 36 this year and
entering his 16th season in the major leagues. Beltre is coming off an
injury-plagued year, although he does appear healthy now. Scutaro will be 34
this year, and Ellsbury will have to adjust to playing a new everyday
position. Ellsbury's defense has been subject to much scrutiny by Boston fans
and media. His UZR last year was -18.6, which was among the worst of all
full-time center fielders. He should benefit by playing in left alongside
Cameron, and I expect that his numbers will return to being above average
defensively. Dustin Pedroia at second, Kevin Youkilis at first, and J.D. Drew
in right round out a solid all-around defensive unit that should make a vast
improvement from last year.
明显地，这将取决于几个因素。Cameron将要36了然后即将进入第16个球季。Beltre刚
脱离一个伤痛所扰的球季，尽管现在看来挺健康。Scutaro将要34而Ellsbury要去适应
一个新守位。Ellsbury的防守将会受到波士顿球迷和媒体更多的检视。他去年的UZR
是-18.6，全职中外野手中的最差。他将会受惠于站在Cameron左侧防守，且我预测该数
字会回到约平均水准。Dustin Pedroia在二垒、Kevin Youkilis在一垒、J.D. Drew在
右外野组成了坚实的守备队形，相较于去年会有巨大的进步。
2. Does this lineup need another big bat?
这条打线需要再一个大棒子？
After all the Adrian Gonzalez trade talk this winter, the Red Sox decided not
to make a move. Boston lost Jason Bay's production in the outfield and
replaced his bat with Mike Cameron's. The team did upgrade the lineup with
Scutaro and Beltre. While this team may lack a true 40-home-run slugger, it
has depth from top to bottom.
这冬天谈到了Adrian Gonzalez的交易，但红袜决定按兵不动。失去了Jason Bay的产出，
取而代之的是Mike Cameron。因为Scutaro和Beltre，球队确实升级了打线。尽管缺少一
个能干40发的强打者，整个队伍从上到下充满深度。
The Opening Day lineup could look something like this: Ellsbury, Pedroia,
Youkilis, Martinez, Ortiz, Drew, Beltre, Cameron, Scutaro. It is true that no
one player strikes fear into opposing pitchers and managers, but there are no
glaring holes in the order as of now. Ultimately, the team will likely need
to add a big bat down the line. Whether or not this move comes this season
will largely depend on the production of David Ortiz. Ortiz's struggles were
well documented last year. He still managed to slug .462, but this was a far
cry from his previous numbers. If he can return to hitting 30-plus home runs
and slugging over .500, the Red Sox will be pleased.
开幕的先发看来会是这样：Ellsbury、Pedroia、Youkilis、Martinez、Ortiz、Drew、
Beltre、Cameron、Scutaro。确实，没有一个会让对手胆寒，但现在这条打线的确没有
特别弱的一环。这季将会极度依赖David Ortiz的产出。去年Ortiz打得挣扎。他仍打出
了.462的长打率，但这远逊于过往的数字。他若能打个30发然后SLG.500，红袜会很开
心的。
The organization knows, for the most part, what to expect from Dustin
Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez. While none of them are true
power threats, Youkilis has posted ISOs of .257 and .242 in the last two
seasons. Pedroia and Martinez will provide high averages and the ability to
reach base consistently. J.D. Drew, when healthy, is among Boston's most
productive hitters. He walks at a high rate (14.5 percent for his career) and
has decent power (.221 ISO). He is 34 now and entering his 13th season, but
he will still be able to reach base even as he ages.
大家都知道该期待Dustin Pedroia、Kevin Youkilis和Victor Martinez什么。但是他
们都不是大砲威胁。Youkilis过往两年的ISOs─.257和.242。Pedroia和Martinez可以
提供高打率和持续上垒。J.D. Drew如果健康会是红袜产出最佳的打者。被BB率高(生涯
14.5%)然后像样的砲瓦(.221 ISO)。他34了然后迈入第13个球季，但仍能上垒。
Jacoby Ellsbury emerged as a premier base stealer last season after he swiped
70 bags and was caught just 12 times. After struggling for some of the 2008
season as pitchers began to adjust to him, he looked much more comfortable at
the plate last year. Adrian Beltre will be looking to bounce back from a
career-low ISO of .114. He signed a one-year deal in Boston and should
benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Beltre will never again
be the player that hit 48 home runs in 2004, but 25 or more is not out of the
question this season. Cameron, although nearing the end of career, has still
shown some power and should use the wall to his advantage. Scutaro is a
classic moneyball type player and has a penchant for reaching base.
Jacoby Ellsbury去年偷了70个垒包被抓了12次，完全的盗垒人。08年因为投手抓到弱点
挣扎了好一会，去年情况好多了。Adrian Beltre尝试着从生涯低点的.114 ISO谷底反弹。
他签了一年约且应该会得利于对打者有利的芬威球场。Beltre永远不会再是那个04年干
了48发的人，但是25发应该不成问题。Cameron尽管处在职业末期，仍有一定砲瓦且会好
好利用那面墙。Scutaro是典型的moneyball类型球员且擅长上垒。
3. What can they expect from the back of the rotation?
能够期待后段轮值些什么？
Boston's top three rotation spots appear to be set with Josh Beckett, Jon
Lester, and John Lackey. These three give Boston one of the best pitching
trios in the league. However, there are some big questions about the other
starting spots.
头三号会是 Josh Beckett、Jon Lester和John Lackey。这三位让红袜拥有联盟最棒
的三人组。然而，其他先发位置有蛮大的问题。
Daisuke Matsuzaka finally appears rested and recovered from shoulder fatigue
and weakness that plagued him all of last season. He is not expected to begin
the year on the 25-man roster as he just made his spring training debut last
week. Dice-K threw just 59.2 innings for Boston last year and was completely
ineffective as a result of an injury suffered during the World Baseball
Classic. This was compounded by the fact that he hid his injuries from the
team and then criticized the organization's conditioning program.
松阪终于好好休息了...从去年困扰他的肩膀问题慢慢恢复中。并不预期上星期在春训
投了第一场比赛后他能够从25人名单中出发。他去年只替红袜丢了59.2局而且因为WBC
受的伤让这些工作完全没效率。加上他隐瞒了伤势还批评了体系的调整规画。
Matsuzaka's style has always been unique and oftentimes frustrating to watch.
He is content to nibble at the corners and his pitch counts are often very
high. He walks over four batter per nine innings but also posts high
strikeout numbers. He relies on his deceptiveness and changing speeds to keep
batters off-balance. When healthy he can be a successful pitcher and probably
the best fourth starter in the league. Barring any setbacks, Matsuzaka should
rejoin the team by mid- to late April. For now, the veteran knuckler Tim
Wakefield will fill his void. Wakefield is durable and consistent even as he
enters his 18th major league season.
松阪的投球型态一直非常独特且看起来令人感到灰心。他喜欢投边边角角让他的用球数
很多。BB/9超过4但也有很多三振。他依赖他迷惑打者的方式和速差来破坏打者的平衡。
如果健康，他会是非常成功的投手且很有可能是联盟最好的四号先发。除去任何伤痛复
发，松阪会在四月中或底归队。目前Wakefield将会填上这个空缺。Wakefield很耐操且
非常稳定，尽管已经要进入他第18个球季了。
Clay Buchholz will look to establish himself in Boston's rotation this season
after spending parts of the last two seasons between Boston and Triple-A.
Buchholz has been somewhat of an enigma during his tenure. He burst onto the
scene with a no-hitter in 2007. He has dominated Triple-A hitters with ease,
but his stuff has not always been able to translate into the majors. He did
pitch much better during September and his command is improving.
前两年在大联盟和3A沉浅的Clay Buchholz将在本季建立自己在红袜轮值的地位。
Buchholz在他工作岗位上的表现一直是个谜。2007年崭露头角的无安打比赛。轻松杀翻
3A但是实力一直没办法换成实绩。但他九月确实投的好多了、控球也进步了。
This could be a critical season for Buchholz. He has top-of-the-rotation
stuff, but it is easy to overlook the fact that the 25-year-old has made just
34 career starts. The organization will be looking for him to make 25-30
starts this season. If Buchholz can put the pieces together this year,
Boston's staff could be a force to be reckoned with. If not, I wouldn't be
surprised if Clay were used in a potential trade next year.
这对Buchholz会是严峻的一年。他拥有轮值最佳的天赋，但这个25岁的球员仅仅先发了
34场。球团会希望他今天先发个25-30场。若Buchholz今年可以填补上战力，波士顿的
制服组就不容小觑。若无法，明年被交易掉我也不意外。
4. What will happen to Ortiz?
什么事会发生在Ortiz身上？
No player is more loved and respected in Boston than David Ortiz. Big Papi
has been a staple in the middle of the order for Boston and a fan-friendly
ambassador for the organization. This is precisely why last year was such a
painful season for him and fans. Ortiz has, deservedly, been given a longer
leash than most in Boston. Boston is pretty thin at 1B/DH without Ortiz, and
the team is banking on him regaining his form. He did bounce back somewhat
form a horrid start last year but never truly regained his confidence at the
plate.
没有球员比Ortiz在波士顿更受爱戴和尊敬。老爹早已是先发里的主干，也是球团的亲
善大使。这对他和球迷来说正是特别痛苦的一件事。应然地，Ortiz在波士顿被赋予了
更高的期待。红袜在1B/DH上若没有Ortiz将非常薄弱，球队也仰赖他重回应有状态。他
确实在可怕的开季后有些反弹，但从未真正重拾打击区上的信心。
Ortiz will be out to show that last year was a fluke and prove the steroid
skeptics wrong. There are concerns, however, that the 34-year old is aging
rapidly and his power is diminishing. On top of this he has dealt with some
nagging injuries, including a wrist injury that forced him to miss time in
2008. After posting ISOs of over .300 his first five seasons in Boston,
Ortiz's numbers have dipped to .243 and .224 in '08 and '09. Dave Allen of
Fangraphs pointed out that his power to right has dwindled as his power to
left has risen. He appeared to be swinging and missing more often and was
having trouble getting around on good fastballs, both of which could be
indicative of his aging.
Ortiz将要证明去年是个意外而且怀疑他使用类固醇的人错了。确有些疑虑，这个34岁
的打者老化快速且力量消失中。之中最大的问题是有些使人不得安宁的伤痛，包含让他
2008年缺阵的腕伤。打出了在红袜前五年ISOs.300，'08和'09下探到.243和.224。
Dave Allen指出他打到右边的砲瓦慢慢减弱但打到左边却提升了。挥空率上升了且在应
付有品质的速球上也出现了问题，两者显示他老了。
THT Forecasts project for a .364 wOBA and 1.6 WAR, which compares favorably
to other projections for Ortiz. This is a far cry from his past numbers, but
still the Red Sox will gladly take this type of production. Behind Ortiz,
Boston's options are Mike Lowell or Jeremy Hermida, so Ortiz is a significant
upgrade here. His days are likely numbered as Boston's DH. If he gets off to
a slow start, I think Boston will begin to look elsewhere. The Sox cannot
afford to watch and hope the old Ortiz returns, especially in the competitive
AL East. For now, Ortiz will be given every opportunity to start and knock in
runs.
THT预测.364 wOBA和1.6 WAR，相较于其他预测已是相当友善。对Ortiz来说跟他过往成
绩有很大落差，但红袜会很高兴他有这样的产出。除了Ortiz就剩Mike Lowell或
Jeremy Hermida，相较来说Ortiz真是好上一截。他将会一直担任红袜DH。如果开季太
慢进入状况，我想红袜会寻求替代方案。红袜无法一直等待Ortiz回春，尤其是在竞争
激烈的美东。目前Ortiz会有先发机会然后打进分数。
5. Can they top the Yankees?
他们能拉下洋基吗？
This is the question every year in Boston. The Red Sox were more active this
winter, spending more money than their adversaries in New York. As it stands
right now, CHONE projects for 99 wins for New York and 93 for Boston. As much
as it pains me to say, I think the Yankees will be the team to beat. Boston
will have a difficult time keeping up with the Yankees' slugging lineup.
每年在波士顿这都是个问题。今年冬天他们更积极，比洋基花了更多钱。目前看来，
CHONE预测了洋基99胜而红袜93胜。洋基会是头号敌人。红袜在努力跟上洋基的暴力打线
上会非常辛苦。
New York may win the division, but I certainly feel an eventual ALCS match-up
is in the future. The Red Sox are built to win in the postseason as their
staff will give them a huge advantage in any short series. They should be
competitive with New York throughout the season, although the expectations
are that another World Series may be in store this year.
洋基会赢得分区冠军，但我确信未来的ALCS对战。因为制服组创造在短期赛程赢球的
巨大优势，红袜会在季后赛胜出。一整季他们都会是洋基最大的竞争者，尽管预期世界
大赛会是他们的囊中物。