Five questions: Cincinnati Reds
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cincinnati-reds3/
The Reds in 2009 corrected a longstanding problem of being a poor to
downright awful fielding team by becoming one of the 2-3 best fielding teams
in the majors. Unfortunately, that explosion in fielding talent was
accompanied by an implosion in hitting talent.
As a result, the Reds had their ninth consecutive losing season.
Can they avoid a 10th? It probably all comes down to a few key players.
09球季的红人队修正了长期以来在防守端的糟糕表现，
不幸的是伴随着防守端成长的却是在打击表现方面的不尽人意,
也使得红人连续第九季无法进入季后赛.
他们能够避免此难堪纪录迈向双位数吗？关键将取决于以下几位球员
Jay Bruce: Barry Bonds, or Wily Mo Pena?
According to Baseball Reference, Jay Bruce's most similar batters through age
22 are Barry Bonds and Wily Mo Pena, both with a score of 965. In the case of
Bonds, even before the PEDs, we have one of the greatest players ever to play
the game. With Pena, we have a player who showed excellent power, but never
solved his problems with contact and low walk rates. Which will Bruce be?
根据BP的统计分析，Jay Bruce至22岁的成长曲线有望长成下一个BB爷或是....
Willy Mo Pena
前者在禁药风波前或许是我们在棒球场上所拥有的最佳球员，
Pena则曾经展现出优秀的长打能力，却从未解决过其无法挥中球及低落的保送率等问题，
那么未来的周董呢？
Last year, he looked more like Wily Mo. He slugged 22 homers in 387 plate
appearances, but hit just .223/.303/.470. Many will point to his low BABIP
last year (.221) and say it was all due to bad luck. I'm not so sure. The
biggest concern I have is that his line drive rate was also miserably low
last year (13 percent, down from 21 percent in 2009). While line drives may
be a subjective measure, they are also a stable statistic for hitters. My
worry is that it's part of a failure to wait for good pitches; only 46
percent of Bruce's pitches were in the strike zone last year, down from 48
percent the year before (the major league average is 51 percent).
上个球季,尽管在387个打席中夯了22只全垒打，但.223/.303/.470的打击三围则让
Jay Bruce的发展显得Willy Mo Pena化，
大多数分析将其归因于低到不行的BABIP(.221)以及坏运气
但我对其的最大质疑则来自Bruce在击出飞球比率上的衰退(21%->13%)，这让我担心
Jay在设定好球带的攻击上是否出了问题
(前年为48%,去年降为46%,大联盟打者的平均则是51%)
On the other hand, there are lots of positive signs that make me want to
drink the Jay Bruce Kool-Aid. Bruce's O-Swing percentage improved by four
points last year, indicating that his ability to lay off pitches out of the
zone has improved. His strikeout rate was down, and his walk rate was up. His
ISO was up 50 points to .246. His fielding seemed improved, receiving strong
marks from both the Fans and objective measures like UZR. And, while his
monstrous production upon his return from injury in September (.326/.426/.652
in 54 PAs) is probably irrelevant due to the sample size, he talked a lot
upon returning about using the time to clear his head after a truly miserable
June and July in which he wOBA'd less than .300.
另一方面,我们仍有足够的正面数据来继续对Jay Bruce的未来发展有所期待(注1)
1.O-Swing率在09球季提升了四个百分点
2.三振率下降及被保送率增加
3.ISO在上个球季提升到.246 防守上的改善亦可从UZR等防守数据上清楚显现
当然Jay Bruce去年九月伤愈归队后,在小样本内的惊人表现(.323/.426/.652 in 54 PAs)
亦让人对其手术的成功及摆脱六、七月的低潮带来信心
Bruce, a former No. 1 overall prospect, has all the talent in the world. But
if the Reds are going to contend, they're going to have to score runs far
more often than they did last year. While the supporting cast is important,
there is no bigger key to the Reds' 2010 chances than the not-yet-23-year-old
Jay Bruce.
Here's what the projections say:
Oliver: .257/.315/.469
CHONE: .286/.351/.539—wow, massive difference!
ZiPS: .251/.315/.459
CHONE is the current "heavyweight" among projection systems. But when it
departs so severely from Oliver and ZiPS ... well ... I'll just say that I
hope it's right.
Jay Bruce，这位拥有所有棒球天赋的23岁前顶级新秀,将是红人队想要在新的球季中得到
更多分数并摆脱上季贫打囧境的主要依靠
关于Jay Bruce这季的预测成绩:
Oliver: .257/.315/.469
CHONE: .286/.351/.539—(FB记得选,谢谢)
ZiPS: .251/.315/.459
Can Drew Stubbs hit major league pitching?
Last year, the Reds gave 95 starts in center field, 81 batting leadoff, to
Willy Taveras. He responded by hitting the brilliantly innocuous line of
.240/.275/.285, and posting an "MLB leading" mark of -25 wRAA. This year's
apparent starter, former No. 1 draft pick Drew Stubbs, is a brilliant
fielder, and seems a good bet to top Taveras' performance this year (in the
good way). The question is by how much.
上季红人队给予W.Taveras在中外野95场的先发以及81场的首棒角色，
Taveras则以.240/.275/.285的完美成绩来诠释腿哥真谛，
并成功夺得全大联盟最败家-25 WAA
今年相同角色将由Drew Stubbs这位才华洋逸前首轮新秀担任，
目前看来Stubbs在缴出与Taveras辉煌时期相同的表现这点上是个不错赌注(好的方面)
问题这在于Stubbs成功的机率有多少?
The story you'll hear on Stubbs is that he has tremendous athletic tools, but
that he has had to shorten his swing so much to cope with severe contact
problems that his power is largely unusable in games. Perhaps for this
reason, he has rarely shown consistent power in the minors (28 homers in
1,800-plus PAs, and five homers in 556 PAs at Triple-A). So I'm very
skeptical of what he did in his last-season call-up, which was to put on a
serious power display: eight home runs in just under 200 PAs.
每当谈论Drew Stubbs，惊人的运动能力虽然是其注册商标，
但他必须学着缩短挥棒轨迹以克服其在打击上的问题，
相较于上一季在短短不到200打席内所挥出的8只全垒打，
我想在今年球季中偶尔展现昙花一现的长打火力或许才是真正的Stubbs
(小联盟超过1800 PAs仅有28只全垒打,在3A的556 PAs则一共只有五轰)
So what should we expect from Stubbs? In the minors, his primary offensive
contribution came from patience at the plate: he walked in at least 11
percent of his PAs each year in the minor leagues. While he strikes out
enough that he may not be able to carry a high average, he may be able to
walk enough to carry a decent OBP. And that would make him a nice asset,
because manager Dusty Baker has to hit his center fielder in the leadoff slot
in virtually every game.
Here are what the projections think of Stubbs:
Oliver: .225/.295/.326
CHONE: .251/.328/.380
ZiPS: .235/.305/.348
Yikes. Let's hope he surprises.
那么我们究竟该如何看待Stubbs?在小联盟，他的主要攻击贡献来自于打击区上的耐心
过往每一季均有超过11%的被保送率，但高三振率亦使得Stubbs难以拥有高打击率
因此Stubbs必须倚靠足够的选球来掩护其上垒率，
而这也是传说中的那个人将中外野及第一棒交给Stubbs时所希望看到的
关于Stubbs的成绩预测:
Oliver: .225/.295/.326
CHONE: .251/.328/.380
ZiPS: .235/.305/.348
好吧...让我们期待奇蹟...
Who is the real Homer Bailey?
Bailey has been a frustrating pitcher almost from the first day of his major
league debut in 2007. He was largely ineffective, had lost significant
velocity, and gained a reputation as an immature and/or difficult-to-coach
young pitcher. Over the past offseason, Bailey made some adjustments on his
mechanics, hoping to regain some velocity. The gains were almost immediate on
that front: After averaging 91-92 the past two seasons, Bailey was throwing
93 in his first May game after getting called up, and from June onward was
averaging 94-95. It took more time for the improved velocity to take the form
of success on the field, however. Here are his monthly FIP numbers from last
season:
May: 8.87 (one start)
June: 6.50
July: 5.36
August: 4.44
September/October: 3.07
自从07球季的登板初试合以来，Bailey就一直成为让人沮丧的投手之一
缺乏效率，丧失球速并被贴上身心不够成熟的年轻投手等标签。
在08年季后，Bailey为重拾球速而对其投手机制作了些许调整，
从前两季平均91~92哩的均速已进步到09年五月重新登上大联盟的93哩
并在六月提升到均速94~95的水准,
球速的增加对于Bailey投手上的帮助也可从其逐月FIP(注二)数据上显现出来
May: 8.87 (只有一场先发)
June: 6.50
July: 5.36
August: 4.44
September/October: 3.07
Heck of a finish to a season that did not begin well! Over his last nine
starts, Bailey posted a 1.70 ERA in 58.3 innings with a 53/24 K/BB ratio and
just two home runs allowed—a 3.06 FIP. Yes, it's a small sample size. And
yes, the velocity was there in June and July as well, without the results.
But the more I've stared at it, the more I'm inclined to believe that his end
of season performance foretells good things to come. Is Bailey likely to
contend for the Cy Young this year? No. But the Fans think he could post a
3.95 ERA in 174 IP this season. For once, I think they might not be overly
optimistic.
在Bailey上季的最后九次先发中，在58.3局中缴出了1.70 ERA、53/25的K/BB，
并只被轰出两发全垒打与3.06的FIP。
这的确只是个小范本，且相同的球速在六七月时却呈现出不同的投球成绩
但我倾向于相信Bailey季末的表现预言了其日后的好表现，
但这表示Bailey这季会加入竞逐赛扬的行列 ?
当然不会，但174 IP/3.95 ERA左右的成绩却是可预期的，而我也抱持着相同看法。
Is Aroldis Chapman the next Randy Johnson?
No. For one thing, Johnson's slider was probably better than his fastball.
Take that, straw man argument!
不,记得一件事,RJ的滑球甚至比Chapman的快速球还要出色,这就足以反驳上述的问题了
But will Chapman help the Reds this season? If you believe the hype after his
first spring training appearance, you'd expect that he was going to debut in
the No. 5 slot in the rotation to begin the year. I'm pretty skeptical of
that. The left hander has been brilliant thus far in spring training,
allowing just one run (a solo homer to Rickie Weeks) through Wednesday's game
in seven innings with 10 strikeouts and two walks. But as the initial mania
about him at the break of camp subsides, more and more Reds brass are
speaking up and urging caution. My read on things is that Chapman is almost
certainly going to start the season in the minors—perhaps Double-A—and will
at least be given the opportunity to struggle there. If he continues to
dominate, however, we may see Chapman midseason. Expect the Reds to be
cautious with him ... as long as owner Bob Castellini doesn't get impatient.
但今年球季Chapman能否对红人队带来帮助，如果你相信其自首次春训登板以来的表现
那么你或许会认为他能够从五号先发开始其大联盟球季.
(Chapman在春训中的表现为7 IP,K/BB 10/2,仅因Weeks的阳春弹失掉一分)。
我对于上述推论仍持怀疑态度，我认为Chapman将从小联盟的2A开始其赛季,如果他能通过
考验并真正展现投球威力,那么我们将有机会在季中看见Chapman登上大联盟.
我预期红人队将谨慎地培养Chapman....只要老板Bob别再失去他的耐心。
As for the No. 5 slot in the rotation ... it's an open competition, but here
are the contenders in descending order of how likely I think they are to land
the job: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Kip Wells, Travis Wood,
Mike Leake, Mike Lincoln. And the last three probably aren't real contenders.
至于谁将担纲轮值中的五号先发...我认为将开放给以下竞争者:
Matt Maloney, Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Kip Wells, Travis Wood, Mike Leake,
Mike Lincoln...其中后面三只我认真应该只是来乱的
What's going on in left field?
The biggest remaining question on the team is what to do with left field. The
re-signing of Jonny Gomes partially answered this question, as he seems
likely to secure the right-handed-hittting half of the platoon job, at least
to start the season. But there's a huge cast of characters that also would
like to be in the picture:
From the right side, Wladimir Balentien, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey
On the left, Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Josh Anderson, Laynce Nix
红人队目前最大的问题是谁要负责左外野的先发,从自由市场中重新签回的Johnny Gomes
或许暂时是这问题的解答，至少他能扮演好面对左投手的角色，
然在赛季开始后以下的球员都有机会在左外野占有一席之地
右打者:Wladimir Balentien, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey
左打者:Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Josh Anderson, Laynce Nix
Balentien was acquired last year in a small trade and is out of options, so
he seems likely to make the team as a reserve power bat off the bench who can
play all of the outfield positions (though you can question how well he can
handle center). When factoring in offense and defense, I'd rather have
Balentien than Gomes. But given that Balentien seems likely to make the team,
top prospects Frazier and Heisey seem to be facing a numbers game problem to
finding a spot on the roster ... although Frazier's versatility could land
him a spot filling in for an injury someone in the infield as the season
progresses.
Balentien是红人队从去年的小型交易中所得到，由于他已用完下放选择权，
因此Balentien预期将会在开季扮演板凳代打以及外野超级工具人的角色
(至于让他守中外野会变什么样子...就请自行想像....)
如果同时考量进攻与防守，我对Balentien的爱甚于Gomes，
但重用Balentien同时也会让球队中Frazier and Heisey等年轻新秀们面临该如
何在球队中定位的问题，
其中Frazier的多功能性将提供球队在赛季中遇到内野伤兵问题时能够有所应变调度
From the left side of the plate, Dickerson almost certainly has the team
made, and is the favorite to win the left-handed side of the platoon (and
possibly could also steal some starts from Stubbs in center). Dickerson has
hit well this spring. But the Reds also seem to like the incomparably
free-swinging Juan "El Niño Destructor" Francisco. He has the most extreme
combination of low minor league walk rate (4 percent) and high strikeout rate
(23 percent) I've seen among players who eventually had any level of success
in the majors. But the guy has tremendous power.
左打方面，春训表现良好的Dickerson几乎确定成为球队面对右投手时，
在左外野的打者人选(也可能从中外野手Stubbs身上得到一些上场机会)。
不过红人队对于JuanFrancisco这位典型重砲手也相当喜爱，
其在小联盟中有着极端的被保送率(4%)以及三振率(23%)
And then there are the veterans: Anderson and Nix. Anderson seems to me to be
a Willy Taveras clone—-good speed, less fielding that you'd expect, and a
fairly anemic bat. Nix, on the other hand, was ostensibly the starting left
fielder last season. Of all the outfielders, however, these two (Anderson and
Nix) have the fewest spring training PAs, leading me to suspect that these
guys are competing more for reserve spots than starting jobs.
Anderson和Nix是红人队的其他选择，Anderson看起来就是另一位的Taveras
有腿、不期不待的防守能力以及只在大鲁阁派得上用场的打击。
Nix则是球队上一季表面上的先发外野手，他们两位在春训中也没啥出场机会
我想他们开季后该争的是板凳而非先发球员的角色
So, back to the main question: Will this team break the streak of losing
seasons? The math says no. But there's a lot of good, young talent here. They
could surprise.
所以回到最初的问题，红人队今年有希望破茧而出吗？
想太多了，期待那些年轻有才能的选手多带来一点惊喜还比较实际
Justin is a life-long Reds fan who keeps the faith at Red Reporter. He also
writes at Beyond the Boxscore and on twitter.
注一:drink the Jay Bruce Kool-Aid 我不太确定这样翻对不对，有错的话欢迎指正
注二:FIP公式是league-specific factor +(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP
注三:第一次尝试翻译...翻不好的地方还请多多包容