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Five questions: Arizona Diamondbacks
by Jim McLennan
March 25, 2010
1. What can Arizona expect from Brandon Webb this season?
亚利桑那响尾蛇队本季能期望Brandon Webb什么吗？
The answer to this question, more than any other, will decide the
Diamondbacks' season. If he returns to the form shown from 2006-08, when he
won more games than any other pitcher in baseball, Arizona will likely have a
1-2-3 to reckon, with Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson following Webb in the
rotation. But if he fails to recover, the Diamondbacks could be in for
another 2009 season, where the pack of replacement-level pitchers who
replaced Webb went 7-20, with a combined ERA of 6.11.
这个问题的答案，比起其他事情，更能决定响尾蛇本季的命运。如果他能回复到06年至08
年间，赢得棒球界最多胜投的表现，响尾蛇队将能排出三巨投，Webb与Haren及Jackson构
成的坚强轮值。但他若无法及时复原，响尾蛇队将重现09年的窘境，取代Webb的替补轮值
群去年仅缴出7-20，总合防御率6.11的成绩。
After a setback where his arm felt "stagnant," at the time of this writing,
Webb appears to be progressing again, and it's hoped that he will miss only
perhaps the first three weeks of the season. It would be too much for him to
return to Cy Young level, particularly immediately. But odds are good that
he'll be significantly better than any alternatives Arizona might have—
journeyman Rodrigo Lopez and rookie Kevin Mulvey are the most likely
temporary replacements for Webb in the rotation.
在历经手臂感觉“死沉”事件后，在我写这篇文章的同时(3/25)，Webb的复原状况似乎又
有进展，并且有希望只缺席球季前三周的赛事。期望他重回赛扬身手是太过了，尤其是近
期。但至少他很明显的比亚利桑那的替补轮值群好─游走各队的Rodrigo Lopez、新人
Kevin Mulvey最有可能暂时取代Webb在轮值中的位置。
2. Will the bullpen be more reliable?
牛棚够罩吗？
It can hardly be much worse, let's say. Arizona's relief corps was mediocre;
its OPS against in 2009 was .734, 12th-best in the NL. But things went
downhill when the relievers needed to be at their most effective—in 'Late
and Close' situations, the D-backs' overall OPS against jumped by 30 points.
This resulted in the team allowing 120 runs in the eighth inning, 25 percent
more than any other team in the league.
这么说吧，应该很难再烂了。亚利桑那的中继群很普通，去年让对手打出.734的OPS，国联
排名第12。但遇到球赛末段比分差距小，最需要牛棚发挥战力的时候，却开始崩盘，对手
在这情况的OPS上升0.03。这使得球队在第八局共丢了120分，比任何联盟中球队多出25%。
Some of those involved are no longer with the Diamondbacks, e.g. Tony Peña,
Jon Rauch and Scott Schoeneweis, Arizona replacing them by signing veterans
Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry over the offseason. Neither man has been very
impressive in spring, and it seems possible they will use Juan Gutierrez, who
closed for the D-backs after Chad Qualls went on the DL late in 2009, as
their main setup man. The LOOGY role is uncertain; Rule 5 pick Zach Kroenke
might get it, but rookie Jordan Norberto is an alternative.
当然有些成员已经不在队上了，如Tony Pena、Jon Rauch及Scott Schoeneweis。亚利桑那
在季后找来了Aaron Heilman及Bob Howry等老将补上这些空缺，但他们春训的表现都不尽
理想。球队可能会启用去年顶替受伤的Chad Qualls关门的Juan Gutierrez，担纲布局投手
的工作。一人左投的名额则尚未确定，规则五选来的Zach Kroenke可能取得这个位置，新
秀Jordan Norberto是有力的候补。
3. Is Arizona going to be the beneficiary of bounce-back seasons from its
offense?
亚利桑那是否会因攻击的改善止跌回升？
There are three everyday players on the team who need to return to better
levels of production: left fielder/first baseman Conor Jackson, second
baseman Kelly Johnson and center fielder Chris Young, and that's probably my
order of confidence in the trio. Jackson lost almost all of 2009 after
catching valley fever in spring training. It's a vicious, debilitating
spore-born lung disease that sapped all his energy and then developed into
pneumonia for good measure. He tore up the Dominican Winter League,and is
having a good spring, so he could well prove a good sleeper pick for 2010.
有三位固定先发球员需要回到过去良好的水准：左外野兼一垒手Conor Jackson、二垒手
Kelly Johnson以及中坚手Chris Young，而上面的排序也代表我的信心指数顺位。Jackson
在去年春训感染溪谷热后，几乎错过整个球季，这是一种强烈且使人不断感到疲弱的肺部
霉菌感染，几乎夺去他的精力，并逐渐发展成肺炎。他在多明尼加冬联大开杀戒，春训表
现也不错，所以今年可能会是逢低买进的好选择。
Johnson was very solid in 2007-08 but was bad enough last season that the
Braves non-tendered him. A BABIP of .247 last year was partly to blame, but a
line-drive rate that dropped to 14 percent was also involved; that will need
to improve if he is to return to form. Young's main issue in 2009 was that he
was an infield pop-up machine, with an IF/FB rate of 28 percent—the
next-highest in the majors by a player with that many plate appearances was
Yuniesky Betancourt's 22 percent. He did improve over the last month after a
spell in Triple-A, but if Young is to live up to the perpetual Mike Cameron
comparisons, he needs to start producing this season.
Johnson在07-08年表现非常称职，但去年球季烂透了，使得勇士选择不和他续约。去年成
绩下滑可归咎于.247的BABIP，但平飞球率下降了14%也是原因之一，而成绩要上升的话这
是个很重要的课题。Young在09年的问题是他变成了内野飞球制造机，内野飞球比28%，而
在同样的出赛水准中，第二名的Yuniesky Betancourt才22%。在下放3A调整后，Young在
球季的最后一个月有所改善，但如果要实现“Mike Cameron再现”的名号，他最好在本季
打出成绩。
4. How will A.J. Hinch perform in his first full season as manager?
A.J. Hinch身为总教练的第一个完整球季会有什么表现？
When Hinch was hired to replace Bob Melvin, 29 games into last season, it
unleashed a firestorm of criticism, mostly because Hinch had no managerial
experience at any level of the game. Arizona pitching coach Bryan Price, who
left the team at that point, blasted the new manager, calling his hiring "a
poor decision" and saying Hinch "doesn't have any credibility between the
lines as a manager." Certainly this posed problems in 2009, with not everyone
on board. "There wasn't a rebellion period with A.J., but something similar
to that," said Brandon Webb.
当Hinch在去年球季开打29场后取代Melvin，他并没有因为战绩垫底被乡民干爆，主因是他
没有执教过任何一场职业比赛。当时的投手教练Bryan Price选择离队，批评空降Hinch是
“鸟决定”，且说Hinch“以总教头来说球队各阶层都不信任他”。当然球队无法齐心的状
况下，拖垮了09年的战绩。Webb说：“这并不是反抗A.J.，但算是类似的情况。”
However, that now seems to be behind the team—in part due to changes in
personnel—with Webb commenting earlier in spring: "He had to earn our trust,
and he did. I think he's going over real well. We really like playing for
him, his philosophies and stuff." It'll be interesting to see what difference
those "philosophies" make: Before spring training, he seemed to be stressing
fundamentals such as defense, which were definitely an Achilles' heel for the
Diamondbacks in 2009.
然而，这对球队来说似成过去，部分原因是人事的整顿，Webb在春训早期评论道：“他需
要取得我们的信任，而他做到了。我认为他做得很好，我们真的很喜欢在他底下打球，还
有他的理念及真才实学。”观察他的理念为球队带来的影响是很有趣的事情：在春训前，
他特别强调基本功，譬如防守，09年响尾蛇队的致命伤。
5. Is the back end of the rotation going to fall apart?
轮值后段会垮吗？
As noted above, last year, the No. 5 spot for the Diamondbacks bordered on
the abysmal, and there are multiple uncertainties again this year, once you
get past Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson. The team traded away Jon Garland (to
the Dodgers, during a game against them) and lost Doug Davis to free agency.
They also swapped Max Scherzer and reliever Daniel Schlereth in a three-way
trade with the Yankees and Tigers, getting back Jackson and largely unproven
No. 4 starter Ian Kennedy.
上述提及，去年响尾蛇队的五号先发处在绝望边缘，今年数完Dan Haren和Edwin Jackson
后，后段轮值的那些问题依然存在。球队将Jon Garland交易出去(到道奇，而且还是比赛
中...)，让Doug Davis成为自由球员，把Max Scherzer跟中继新秀Daniel Schlereth在与
洋基、老虎的三方交易中换出去，拿回Jackson以及几乎没站稳过的四号先发Ian Kennedy
The result is a much less experienced rotation than in 2009. Both Kennedy and
expected No. 5 Billy Buckner are young (25), and neither is a proven major
league contributor. They have just 30 starts at the highest level between
them, with a combined career ERA close to 6. Now, obviously you don't need
ace-like performances from that end of your rotation: In the NL, the No. 4
slot typically posts an ERA in the 4.35-5.15 range, with a No. 5 higher than
5.15. However, Jackson and Buckner are basically question marks: While they
may surprise us (Kennedy was a first-round pick for the Yankees in 2006),
they could also be little better than replacement level.
这造成了一个远比09年稚嫩的轮值，Kennedy及表定的五号Billy Buckner年纪尚轻(25岁)
而且都没有证明自己能在大联盟稳定贡献。两人在最高层级加起来仅有30次先发，总合防
御率将近6。很明显的，现在轮值后段并不需要王牌等级的成绩，国联的四号先发防御率在
4.35至5.15间，五号则超过5.15。然而，他们两个基本上仍是轮值中的问号，虽然他们可
能让我们大吃一惊(Kennedy是洋基06年选秀第一轮)，但他们也可能跟免洗水准无异。
Jim McLennan blogs over at AzSnakePit.com. He welcomes questions and comments
via email.
作者Jim McLennan为知名部落格AzSnakePit的站长。