1. Was 2009 a fluke season for Cole Hamels?
对于Cole Hamels来说 2009年是否只是单纯运气不佳的一季？
Yes, mostly due to their batting averages on balls in play (BABIP).
Pitchers have very little control over their BABIP, so it normally hovers around .300.
In 2008, when Cole Hamels was brilliant, his BABIP was .270. Last year, it was .325.
An increase of .055 is a lot!
答案是肯定的,原因则是在于他的BABIP. 投手们并无法去掌控自己的BABIP,
所以大部分投手大概都落在3成左右.在2008球季,Cole Hamels的BABIP是2成7,
去年,这个数字则大幅成长到3成25.
There were 581 balls put in play against Hamels in '09.
If hitters batted .300 instead of .325, they get 174 hits instead of 189.
64.5 percent of the hits Hamels allowed were singles,
21.5 percent were doubles, 2.5 percent were triples,
and 11.5 percent were home runs.
If we assume the same distribution of hits,
then Hamels would have given up nine fewer singles,
three fewer doubles, one fewer triple, and two fewer home runs.
In other words, opposing hitters' SLG would drop from .440 to .406 and their
OBP would drop from .315 to .296.
去年,Hamels总共有581个投球被击在场内.若他的BABIP为0.3而非0.325,
则他的被安打数会从189降为174.
在Hamels被击出的安打里面,有64.5%为一垒安打, 21.5%为二垒安打, 2.5%为三垒安打, 11.5%为全垒打.
假如我们套用这个数据在刚才的假设上,
则Hamels会被少敲出9只一垒安打,3只二垒安打,1只三垒安打和2只全垒打.
换句话说,去年对手的SLG会从0.44降为0.406, 而OBP会从0.315降为0.296.
Overall, Hamels was the same pitcher last year as he was in 2008.
His FIP was 3.72 in both years; xFIP only had him 0.06 worse in '09;
tRA thought he was .014 better last year.
总体来说,Hamels去年的表现和2008年一样.
FIP都是3.72, xFIP仅小幅的衰退了0.06, 而tRA则是进步了0.014.
His strikeouts and walks stayed at the same level. So did his batted ball splits.
他的三振与保送的数据维持平盘. 被击球的分布也差不多(平飞,高飞,滚地).
And, finally, Hamels was actually more consistent with his release points.
事实上,他投球时的放球点甚至越来越稳定.
If I was a betting man, I would bet that Hamels has a bounce-back 2010 season.
假如我是雨刷,我赌他在2010球季一定会触底反弹.
2. Why didn't GM Ruben Amaro keep Cliff Lee?
为什么GM Ruben Amaro不留住Cliff Lee?
Fans salivated at the thought of having Roy Halladay,
Cliff Lee and Hamels in the same starting rotation.
Opposing managers cringed at the thought of facing all three consecutively in the playoffs.
Yes, it would have been nice to have all three wearing a Phillies uniform in 2010.
曾经,费城的球迷对有着Doc, 小李飞刀和黑魔使的先发轮值留口水.
他队GM则对于需要在季后赛面对连续三名强投的想法感到不安.
当然,若上述三位投手在2010球季都能穿上Phillies的球衣的确是美事一件.
Jimmy Rollins: Drafted in the 2nd round in 1996
Jimmy Rollins: 1996年第2轮
Ryan Madson: Drafted in the 9th round in 1998
Ryan Madson: 1998年第9轮
Chase Utley: Drafted 15th overall in 2000
Chase Utley: 2000年第15顺位
Ryan Howard: Drafted in the 5th round in 2001
猴儿: 2001年第5轮
Cole Hamels: Drafted 17th overall in 2002
黑魔使: 2002年第17顺位
J.A. Happ: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2004
黑皮: 2004年第3轮
The Phillies organization has drafted remarkably well and built around a core of home-grown players.
Partially resulting from the Cliff Lee trade last year,
and partially due to having lower draft picks due to their recent success,
the Phillies' minor league system has fallen into the bottom-third
of the league according to most rankings.
Emptying what's left in the farm for one year of Lee would have been devastating to the Phillies beyond 2012.
在过去几年,费城人在选秀方面取的惊人的成功并以这些球员为核心打造了一支具有竞争力的队伍.
但在近年出色的战绩以及小李飞刀的交易案背后,
费成人的农场已经在最近的排名落到全联盟倒数第三.
为了多留小李飞刀一年而将农场一扫而空的作法将会对2012年后的费城人具有破坏性的影响.
Essentially swapping Lee for Halladay allowed
the Phillies to keep some prospects that will be able to fill in
as the current group of Phillies dwindles while also signing
one of the best pitchers in baseball to a multi-year contract extension.
基本上将小李飞刀换成Doc对于费城来说不仅可以保住为数不多的农场新秀,
以使的球队的未来不致于大受影响,更可以用复数年合约绑住目前大联盟中最好的投手.
Phillies fans will curse Amaro if the Phillies fail to win the World Series in 2010,
but they will be thanking him by 2013. His job is not just to put a competitive team on the field this year,
but to ensure that he will be able to do the same in '11, and '12, and '13, and so on.
假如费城人再度于2010的WS中锻羽而归,费城球迷的砲口将会指向GM Amaro(编案：我也是!!)
但到了2013年,这些球迷将会感谢Amaro当初的决定.
因为他的工作不仅仅只是在2010年打造一支具有竞争力的球队,
他也要能够确保费城人在2011, 12, 13甚至未来都能够复制一模一样的成绩.
3.How good has the running game been, and will it continue to improve?
费城人已经很快了,而他们能够更快嘛？
With first base coach Davey Lopes,
the Phillies' base runners have been historically great.
In 2007, Lopes' first year on the job,
the Phillies stole bases at an 88 percent success rate,
setting an all-time Major League record.
In '08 and '09, their success rates were 84 percent and 81 percent, respectively.
From 2007-09, the Phillies were the most efficient baseball team in terms of stealing bases.
在一垒指导教练Davey Lopes的带领下,
费城人的球员在跑垒方面有着显著的好成绩.
在2007年, 也就是Lopes走马上任的第一年,
费城人的盗垒成功率是至今仍为大联盟记录的88%.
而在2008及2009年,他们的盗垒成功率分别为84%和81%.
从2007年到2009年, 费城是全大联盟盗垒最有效率的队伍.
The team has also become more aggressive under Lopes.
In the three years prior to his hiring, 2004-06,
the Phillies were just in the top half to top one-third
in the majors in terms of base-stealing aggressiveness(attempts to steal).
With Lopes, from '07-09,
the Phillies have been in the top one-fourth to one-sixth.
这只球队在Lopes的指导下越来越有侵略性.
在他之前(2004-06),
费城在尝试盗垒的数据上顶多只能排到全联盟的前半或是前三分之一.
而从07年开始一直到今天,费城已经在这项数据上排到全联盟的前四分之一.
While it is obvious that Lopes has made his runners
attempt to steal second more often,
he has also done the same at third base.
Phillies runners have become more aggressive trying to steal third base.
Lopes不仅仅只是让他的球员们多尝试盗二垒而已.
在他的要求下,现在费城的球员更义无反顾的往三垒冲.
It isn't just blind aggression, either.
From 2007-09, the Phillies successfully stole third base
85 percent, 89 percent, and 72 percent respectively,
well above the 75 percent break-even point in two out of the three years.
但盗三垒对于他们来说却不是个盲目的行为.
从2007到09, 费城人盗三垒的成功率分别为85%, 89%和72%.
(下面这句小弟不才实在翻不出来..)
In 2010, the same group of runners