Five Questions: Cleveland Indians
by Ryan Richards
March 17, 2010
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cleveland-indians5/
It’s been a turbulent 12 months since last spring. The team went from a club
weakened but still capable of competing for a division crown to one that has
no pretense of doing so. The Indians have replaced their manager, traded
several core players, and announced a front office reorganization to boot.
从去年春天以来, 这12个月是动荡混乱的.
CLE 从一支软弱但仍能竞争分区王座的球队, 变成连竞争力也没了.
球队已经换掉教练、交易几个核心球员, 并宣布重组制服组再出发.
If the Indians aren’t going anywhere, what’s the goal this season?
如果Indians一事无成, 那本赛季的目标是啥?
Some of the moves (replacing Eric Wedge) came almost as a relief, while
others (the trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez) were expected, probably
necessary, but all the same excruciating to a fan base that’s been let down
regularly. That’s why this season’s success rests only indirectly on wins
and losses. Because unless the casual fan is re-energized, it will be
difficult to build on any on-field improvement. Ownership seems to be
unwilling to get out in front of fan interest, so ticket sales will need to
drive payroll, not vice versa.
一些变动 (换掉Eric Wedge) 几乎是一种解脱, 而其他事 (交易 Cliff
Lee & Victor Martinez)是预期且可能必须的, 但对经常失望的球迷们而言,
都是同等痛苦. 这就是为什么本赛季的成功只间接地建立在胜负. 因为除非
看热闹的球迷重新进场, 否则(成功)将难以建立在球场上的任何进步.
球队老板Larry Dolan似乎不愿意抛开球迷支持度的侷限花钱, 所以团队薪资
多少只能由门票收入决定, 而不是相反.
For the casual fan to regain interest in the Indians, and not treat the club
as a passing diversion between LeBron in the spring and the Browns in the
fall, the club will need to show tangible improvement over the course of the
season. Right now, it’s hard to identify what specific steps the Indians
need to take to compete for the division, but by the end of the season, those
steps should not only be identifiable but easily obtainable. Do that, and
interest will return, along with the all-important season ticket sales.
要让看热闹的球迷重新对 Indians获得兴趣, 而不是把球队当作春天 LeBron
与秋天 Browns之间的过渡消遣, 球队需随着赛季进行, 展示出确实的进步.
目前, 很难确定 Indians需要采取哪些具体步骤, 才能角逐分区; 但球季尾声时,
这些事情不仅将可确认、且容易达成. 这样做, 球迷的兴趣与非常重要的季票销售,
才会回来.
What’s the biggest problem area on this team?
这个球队哪方面问题最大?
By this time next year, the Indians will have taken a big step forward if
they have only a couple spots in the rotation to fill, instead of having to
fill the entire rotation. In other words, it would be nice to reasonably
expect three starting pitchers to pitch at least 180 innings, make 28-30
starts, and a roughly league-average ERA. I don’t expect any Indians starter
to accomplish that this season for a variety of reasons including a lack of
2009 innings, a lack of big-league experience or major mechanical flaws.
到明年这个时候, Indians将已前进了一大步; 如果他们只要填满两个位置,
而不必填满整个轮值. 换言之, 这是合理预期三个 SP至少各180局、28~30次
先发及接近联盟平均值的 ERA. 基于各种原因, 包括 2009年局数不足、缺乏
大联盟经验或重大机制的缺陷, 我不期待 Indians任一SP在本赛季能达到标准.
The absence of starting pitching throughout the organization was what largely
led to last year’s mid-season trades of Lee and Martinez, and while the
Indians now have some depth thanks to those deals, they don’t yet have a
credible rotation. The three pitchers who are expected to head the staff
(Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona) all have serious
flaws, and in most rotations would be classified as back-end projects.
Westbrook hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in almost two seasons, Carmona
was a disaster in 2009, and Masterson is still transitioning from the
bullpen. Again, that’s the top of the rotation.
基本上因为整个组织缺乏SP, 所以去年赛季中交易了 Lee & Martinez,
现在Indians有些深度是来自这些交易, 但还是没有一个可靠的轮值.
领衔主演的三大投手 (Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, & Fausto Carmona)
都存在严重缺陷, 而且在大多数轮值会被归类为四五号之流.
Westbrook近两个赛季没在MLB投过球, Carmona是2009年的一场灾难, 而Masterson
仍从牛棚过渡中. 再说一次, 这就是轮值的主角群.
At the bottom of the rotation are several pitchers working their way into the
majors. Aaron Laffey, David Huff, and Mitch Talbot are the three frontrunners
for the final two spots, though Talbot has a procedural advantage because he’
s out of options. Laffey is the most accomplished major-leaguer of the bunch
and was the best pitcher on the staff after Cliff Lee was dealt. Huff racked
up the most innings of the returning pitchers, and though he stuck around
mainly through a lack of other credible or even quasi-credible rotation
options, did show improvement as the season wore down. Talbot came over from
Tampa for Kelly Shoppach this winter, and should make the team if he has a
competent end to the exhibition season. He hasn’t pitched in the majors
since the end of the 2008 season, and spent much of the 2009 campaign coming
back from an elbow injury, though his career minor-league stats are promising
enough to justify a shot.
在轮值担任配角的是各自努力升上MLB的几个投手, Aaron Laffey,
David Huff & Mitch Talbot是竞争最后两席的三个热门人选; 虽然 Talbot
有程序优势, 因为他的option用完了. Laffey是其中MLB等级完成度最高的,
也是Cliff Lee被交易后最佳的投手. Huff累计局数最多, 尽管他不上不下的
主因是缺乏其他可靠的、甚至接近可靠的轮值选择; 然随着赛季进行, 他明显
进步了. Talbot来自冬天将 Kelly Shoppach交易给Tampa, 如果他春训投得不错,
应能进入25人名单. 自2008年赛季结束后, 他没有在MLB投球过, 并用了
2009年来复原肘伤; 不过他的职业生涯小联盟数据不错, 值得一试.
What about the other part of run prevention: defense?
至于减少失分的其他部分-"防守"呢?
Depending on who makes the club, the Indians could start the season with a
rotation full of groundball pitchers, so the range of the infielders will
play a key role. The Indians, though, return three starting infielders
(Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Valbuena, and Jhonny Peralta) with negative 2009
UZRs. Cabrera and Peralta’s jobs are safe, but Valbuena could lose playing
time when one of the more extreme groundballers is on the mound.
这要看谁组成轮值, Indians可以用一个满是滚地球投手的轮值开始球季,
此时内野手的(防守)范围将是关键. 不过, Indians内野手 (Asdrubal Cabrera,
Luis Valbuena, & Jhonny Peralta) 的2009 UZR评比都是负的.
Cabrera & Peralta处境安全, 但任一较极端的滚地球投手站在投手丘时,
Valbuena可能就失去上场时间.
The outfield seems a much better defensive group. Grady Sizemore has
excellent range and a poor arm in center, while right fielder Shin-Soo Choo
has decent range and an excellent arm. Depending on the health of Russell
Branyan, either Matt LaPorta or Michael Brantley will be patrolling left
field, with Brantley being the better fielder.
外野似乎是较好的防守组. 中外野的弱臂Grady Sizemore具有良好范围,
而右外野的秋信守已有不错的范围、良好臂力. 根据Russell Branyan的
健康状况, Matt LaPorta 或 Michael Brantley将不时巡逻左外野,
而Brantley是(防守)较佳的野手.
So with a young, shaky, groundball-throwing starting rotation pitching in
front of an infield that’s not likely to cover much ground, run prevention
is going to be a major problem with this team.
因此, 不大可能守住太多滚地球的内野阵容, 面对一个年轻、不稳定的、
充满滚地球的先发轮值, 如何减少失分将是这支球队的一大问题.
Is the lineup good enough to make up for the pitching?
那打击阵容可否弥补投手缺陷呢?
Not even close, though the offense should rank among the best in the league.
The Indians potentially have a very nice core of offensive players, led by
Sizemore, Cabrera, and Choo. All three are threats at the plate and on the
base paths, with Cabrera lagging a bit behind the other two in the power
department. Sizemore played with an injured elbow most of last year, and a
clean bill of health should mean another 30-30 season. Choo had a fantastic
offensive season in 2009 (.300/.394/.489, 21-for-23 in stolen base attempts)
which was largely ignored because of how poorly the team played. Cabrera was
the other pleasant surprise; he solved right-handed pitchers, his previous
weakness, and did everything but hit home runs.
差得远勒, 虽然进攻打线应该排得上联盟最佳之一.
Indians的Sizemore、Cabrera、秋, 三人可能只有一个会打传统认定的中心棒次.
这三人站在打击区与垒包间都有威胁性, 虽然Cabrera的power略弱于其他两者.
Sizemore去年大部分时间手肘受伤; 有健康证明的话, 本季该要有30-30吧.
秋在2009年有一个梦幻般的进攻数据 (.300/.394/.489, 21-23盗垒尝试),
然球队战绩很糟糕, 多半就被无视了.
Cabrera是另一个惊喜, 他克服以往面对右投手的弱点, 攻守俱佳... 除了全垒打.
The supporting cast is also good. Branyan and Travis Hafner, if healthy, will
give the lineup traditional power threats. Valbuena has surprising power for
a player of his build. And LaPorta and Brantley, promising prospects received
for CC Sabathia in 2008, should both get regular at-bats for the first time.
Brantley gives the lineup another base stealer, though he’ll either have to
hit for power or rack up the walks to stick around as a left fielder. LaPorta
is a more typical corner outfield prospect, a power hitter with a very quick
bat. Catching prospect Carlos Santana, when he’s ready defensively, will
contribute with the bat right away
打线的配角阵容也很好.
Branyan & Travis Hafner, 如果健康, 将使阵容维持既有的power.
以Valbuena的身材来说, 有着让人意外的的power.
LaPorta & Brantley, 2008年用CC Sabathia换来的两位潜力新秀,
都应该得到首季稳定的上场时间.
Brantley可以让这个打线多一个能盗垒的人, 不过他必须要有长打或凹到大量保送,
才能留在大联盟守左外野.
LaPorta是较典型的角落外野新秀, 有着快速挥棒的强力打者.
捕手新秀Carlos Santana, 当他做好防守功课时, 就能做出立即的贡献.
What happened to Jhonny Peralta, and what are the Indians going to do with
him?
Jhonny Peralta怎么了? Indians将如何处理呢？
It had been several years since the Peralta-to-third calls began, but with
the emergence of Asdrubal Cabrera, the time was right to make the move last
season. Jhonny wasn’t happy with the position change, and even this spring
still thinks himself a shortstop. But the major problem right now is his
offense; he hit .254/.316/.375 in 2009, an anemic batting line for just about
any position. Instead of hitting line-drive extra-base hits the other way,
Peralta hit more pulled ground balls than in past seasons. His 11 home runs
were his lowest full-season total in his career. He’s coming into the last
guaranteed season on his contract, and though it would make sense to deal him
in July, a third baseman who isn’t hitting for power is a poor trade chip.
In a perfect world, Peralta will rebound, allowing the Indians to trade him
for a couple of prospects at the deadline and give prospect Lonnie Chisenhall
some at-bats in August and September.
这几年一直有Peralta何不守三垒的声音, 随着Asdrubal Cabrera出现,
上个赛季终是做出改变的正确时间. Jhonny不满守备位置变动, 甚至在
今年春天仍然认为自己守游击. 但现在主要问题是他的打击, 2009年
.254/.316/.375, 不管任何位置都是贫血无力的打击数据. 相对于击出
平飞长打的其他方式, Peralta拉打出现了比以前更多的滚地球. 他的
11支HR是职业生涯里整季的最低值. 他已经进入合约保障的最后一季,
在7月处理他是合理的, 没有power的三垒手是次级交易筹码.
理想状况下, Peralta会反弹, 让Indians在期限时换来一些新秀, 并让
Lonnie Chisenhall在八九月有上场机会.
Ryan Richards runs Let's Go Tribe, a Cleveland Indians blog, and can be
reached via e-mail.
Let's Go Tribe http://www.letsgotribe.com/
Ryan Richards indians@gmail.com