有错还请推文告知,小弟会立刻修改。
Milwaukee Brewers
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-milwaukee-brewers5/
From 90 wins to 80 in one season. Sure, Milwaukee fans are used to seeing the
hometown team lose, but the 2008 Wild Card changed the expectation game.
Plenty of things went right for the Brewers last year, but the starting
rotation was so, so wrong.
一年之间从90胜退步到80胜(08~09)。当然,当酒鬼迷已经开始习惯在自家主场输球时
08年的外卡资格改变了一切。去年很多事都有了正向的改变,但是先发轮值还是一样,
一样的糟。
Will the rotation be respectable?
先发轮值会受到世人的尊重吗?
One thing is certain: It will be tough for the rotation to be worse than it
was last year. Brewers starters had an ERA of 5.37 last year (last in the
National League, 0.40 behind 15th-place Washington), and that's including a
3.73 ERA from Yovani Gallardo. We could look at some more advanced stats, but
they all tell about the same story.
一件事是已确定的:对于新轮值来说,要投得比去年糟糕是很困难地。去年酒鬼轮值拥有
5.37 的 ERA (国联最后一名,比前一名的国民还多0.40) 这当中还包含了新生代王牌
强投 Yovani Gallardo 的 3.73。我们可以从更多进阶的数据来看,但结果还是一样地。
At least there are some new faces. Along with Gallardo, the top of the
rotation will include free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. Between
them, CHONE predicts that the Crew will get about 330 innings of sub-4.50
pitching. Compared to replacement level, Wolf was a bit pricey. Compared to
the disaster that was 2009 Brewers starting pitching, Wolf is a savior.
至少有三位是新面孔。除了 Gallardo 前段轮值还包含了FA签来的 Randy Wolf 以及
Doug Davis。CHONE 预测他们两个大概能有330局的工作量且 ERA 低于 4.50。以市场
价格来说 Wolf 确实有一点点贵,但对于去年残破的轮值,Wolf 显然是一位酒鬼救星。
Also reassuring is that Dave Bush and Manny Parra have track records
suggesting they are capable hurlers. Both rode a wave of poor performance and
worse luck to ERAs above 6.00 last year; CHONE projects that both will come
in under 5.00 in 2010.
同样令然感到安慰的事是 Dave Bush 和 Manny Parra 都已把他们的ERA推向生涯新高
去年他们俩都以糟糕的表现领了一张ERA超过6的成绩单。CHONE 预测他们两ERA今年
都会低于5。
Then there's Jeff Suppan. In a logical world, the Brewers would cut him
loose, suffer the emotional pain of a $12 million sunk cost, and give his
innings to someone—anyone—else. In this world, he may well end up with a
rotation spot. He will give up a lot of runs.
再来是 Jeff Suppan,逻辑上来说酒鬼应该买断他12M的肥约,甚至卖给其他潘那
但现实的结果是,他是球队的第五号先发,且会设法减少他自己的失分。(??)
Even if Suppan sticks in the rotation for most of the season, this is a
much-improved rotation. It doesn't look like a playoff-caliber one, but if
Parra (still only 27) puts things together and rebounds to something like his
2008 season, it might be good enough to get the job done.
假使说 Suppan 罩得住的话,这轮值已经比去年进步很多了。虽然看起来不像能打进
季后赛的轮值,但如果才27岁的 Parra 能再度投出08年的好成绩,看起来还有点搞头。
They can field, they can run, but can they hit?
他们能守能跑,但能打安打吗?
If you're looking for reasons to watch the Brewers this year, here are two:
Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Both are among the most gifted defensive
players in the game, and they'll be manning shortstop and center field for
Milwaukee.
如果你想找本季看酒鬼球赛的原因,这有两个:Alcides Escobar 和 Carlos Gomez
两位都是天生的守备好手一个站游击大关一个则在中外野。
But both also are young and come with question marks on their offense. Gomez
has over 1,000 major league at-bats under his belt, with a sub-.300 on-base
percentage to show for it. Brewers coaches are already tinkering with his
approach, and he's a candidate (along with Escobar) to bat ninth, behind the
pitcher.
但两只都还年轻而且进攻还是个问号。Gomez 在1000个大联盟打数里上垒率低于3成
教练们正在极力挽救,他跟 Escobar 同时也是打第九棒的人选之一(在投手后面)
Officially, the Brewers aren't expecting much from the pair, but if both
perform at the lower end of their offensive projections, it's easy to see an
anemic overall offense result. For all that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can
do, another down year from Corey Hart, a step back from Casey McGehee, and a
couple of all-field youngsters could guarantee some awfully easy innings for
opposing pitchers.
据传,酒鬼对于两只新秀并没有太高的期望,如果他们不能展现出进攻能力,那打线
看起来会相当贫弱。除了 Braun 跟 Fielder 外,在生涯低点的 Corey Hart 和退步
的 Casey McGehee 及两只年轻新秀,可以让对手投起来很轻松。
Fortunately, there is hope. Escobar got on base at a .350 clip in Triple-A
last year, and even batted .300 in his stint in the majors. He's shown solid
gap power throughout his minor league career, knocking at least 25 doubles in
each of the last two seasons.
幸运的是,还有希望。Escobar 去年在3A的上垒率是.350 以及上MLB后的.300 AVG
他在大联盟生涯有个好的起步,过去两个球季都有至少25只的二垒安打。
Gomez is a bigger question mark, but he might be the one with more potential
at the plate. While he has never had a sterling offensive season, he held his
own in the minors at a very young age; he just hasn't seen much in the way of
improvement in the last two years.
Gomez 的问题比较大,但他的浅力应该不只如此。即使他在进攻上没有过代表性的球季
但他很年轻就上MLB,只是过去两个球季没有明显的进步。
Will Rickie Weeks stay healthy?
Rickie Weeks 会保持健康吗?
Probably not.
我想不会。
Has Doug Melvin fixed the bullpen yet?
Doug Melvin 有改善牛棚吗?
Little-known fact outside of Milwaukee: The bullpen wasn't that bad last
year. The memory of the 2008 Eric Gagne edition is strong, but finally fading.
场外小知识:酒鬼牛棚去年并没有很烂。回想08年的刚爷,昙花一现。
Melvin has finally started to figure out how to build a bullpen with a decent
payrol. Years ago, he was famous for his scrap heap pickups: Dan Kolb (when
he was good), Derrick Turnbow (when he was good), Brian Shouse, and many
more. Once he had some money to play with, he spent it on the likes of Gagne,
Guillemo Mota, and David Riske.
Melvin 终于开始体会如何把钱花在刀口上。几年前,他以砂砾堆中找珍珠出名,如:
Dan Kolb、Derrick Turnbow、Brian Shouse 等等。等到他有大笔预算时,他就签了
刚爷、Mota 跟 David Riske 。
Nobody ever said it was easy to build an effective bullpen. This year's
edition is a relatively salary-efficient blend of proven vets (Trevor
Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins), experienced but affordable middle relievers (Todd
Coffey, Claudio Vargas), and some homegrown pieces (Mitch Stetter, Carlos
Villanueva).
没人说过打造有效率的牛棚事件易事,今年的方针是薪资与效率成正比和仔细地审核(??)
像 Hoffman 跟 Hawkins。有经验且能负担长中继的:Coffey、Vargas。和一些农作物:
Stetter、Villanueva。
A better performance from the starting rotation will help, and Hawkins should
more than make up for the loss of Mark DiFelice. Hawkins' presence also would
make it easier to weather injury or ineffectiveness from the 42-year-old
Hoffman. This isn't a world-beating bullpen, but it isn't likely to hold the
rest of the team back.
先发轮值有好的表现的话帮助会更大,Hawkins 应该可以弥补甚至超越 DiFelice 的空缺
有了 Hawkins 的加入如果 Hoffman 发生什么状况他也可以直接递补42岁的救援王。
这并不是多强大的牛棚,但足以成为实用的后盾。
Where will Prince Fielder end up, and when?
小王子最终将情归何处?何时呢?
Those annoyed by the constant low-level chatter about a long-term deal for
Prince Fielder had better brace themselves. It ain't going away anytime soon.
这句不太会。
A quick recap. Prince is now in his second season of arbitration. Last year,
he signed a two-year deal that gave the club some cost certainty; this year,
he's making $10.5 million. If Scott Boras and the Brewers settle on a
one-year contract next year, we could be looking at something in Ryan Howard
territory, pushing $20 million.
快速回顾:小王子正在薪资仲裁的第二年,去年他签了2年约无疑给了酒鬼很大的支出
今年10.5M。如果 Bora$ 跟酒鬼谈好明年签一年约的话,猴儿的20M是对照组。
It's conceivable that Milwaukee would do that. Between the low-cost Ryan
Braun deal and Suppan's contract coming off the books, the money will be
available. It's even possible that the Brewers could convince themselves that
Fielder is worth a $150 million, seven-year megadeal.
是可以想像酒鬼高层会这么做的。在 Braun 的佛心约和 Suppan 的肥约之间,酒鬼应该
还负担得起。酒鬼甚至肖想7年150M绑住小王子是可行的。(哈哈哈