Five questions: Pittsburgh Pirates
by Charlie Wilmoth
March 22, 2010
全文连结:
@9
The Pirates stink, have stunk since the beginning of time, have had 17
straight losing seasons, blah blah blah. Let's skip the rest of the
throat-clearing, shall we? It's too depressing.
说到海盗 大家可能马上就会联想到一支已经连17年胜率未过半的球队
不过还是别那壶不开提那壶 回来看看今天要讨论的主题吧
1. How will changes to the defense affect the starting rotation?
1. 防守上的变动会如何影响到先发轮值的表现?
That any part of the 2009 Pirates' 62-99 team “performed” may surprise some
of you, and for good reason. But the fact remains that most of the Bucs'
rotation was fine, at least on the surface, with four of its five main
starters (Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton) all
posting ERAs of 4.55 or below. This is a pitch-to-contact bunch, though (Duke
and Maholm have made their careers that way, and while Ohlendorf and Morton
might have the stuff to post high strikeout rates in the majors, they haven't
done it yet), and pitch-to-contact types rely heavily on their defense.
在2009年仅拿下66胜的海盗，去年的先发轮值表现却显得中规中矩，
五名先发里有四位(Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton)
的ERA小于4.55，而这些投手都以不畏惧与打者对抗或挨打的方式与打者周旋，
然而这种投球方式就十分倚赖队友防守的帮忙。
The Pirates' defense, lousy throughout much of the aughts, was passable last
year, but that might change in 2010. The Pirates are entrusting first base to
Jeff Clement, who has barely played the position even in the minors. Their
shortstop will be Ronny Cedeno, who's competent enough but is still a large
defensive downgrade from Jack Wilson, one of baseball's best defenders.
海盗去年的防守还算过得去，然而今年可能会有了些变化。
首先，今年的一垒手是由Jeff Clement担任，而他在小联盟几乎没有守过一垒；
游击大关是Ronny Cedeno，他的防守能力是足以胜任，但跟去年防守优异的Jack Wilson
相比还是差了一个等级。
Contrary to his reputation, Lastings Milledge played left field capably and
enthusiastically down the stretch last year, but he lacks Nyjer Morgan's
spectacular range. And Garrett Jones, although he helps offensively, is much
worse in the field than last year's opening day right fielder, Brandon Moss.
The only positions where the Pirates can expect to improve much are center
field, where the speedy and sure-handed Andrew McCutchen took over for Nate
McLouth last June, and perhaps second base, where Akinori Iwamura replaces
Freddy Sanchez and the abominable Delwyn Young.
Lastings Milledge今年镇守左外野，但在守备范围仍比不上已离队的Nyjer Morgan；
而去年炮火猛烈的Garrett Jones，在防守上也不如去年开季先发的右外野手
Brandon Moss。唯一守备晋级的位置就只有中外野由Andrew McCutchen取代离队的
Nate McLouth以及Akinori Iwamura镇守的二垒了。
That's important, and one need only look at Duke's career to see why. Put
Duke in front of a decent defense like the one he had last year, and he's
fine. Put him in front of a bad defense, like the ones he had in 2007 and
2008, and he's a mess. His BABIPs have been .360 in 2007, .327 in 2008 and
.296 in 2009, and those numbers track pretty closely with his ERAs. While the
changes in BABIP among those years appear to involve some random variance,
they also have a lot to do with the Pirates' fielding, which converted far
more balls in play into outs in 2009 than in either 2008 or 2007. The
defensive downgrade this year is likely to affect Duke more intensely than it
will affect the Bucs' other starters, but unless they increase their
strikeout rates, they're all very vulnerable.
我们看看Duke这几年的成绩就明白防守对他的重要性了。
像去年在可圈可点的防守下，他的成绩就不错，但在2007和2008两年差劲的防守下，
他的成绩就明显较差。
他的BABIP从2007年的.360、2008年的.327，降到2009年的.296 而这些数据和他的ERA
有明显的正相关。我们知道BABIP本来就会随机的变动，但也跟防守能力的好坏有关连。
可以预见的，今年防守上的退步可能会使得Duke的成绩下滑。
除非海盗的轮值群能增进本身的三振功力，不然成绩仍易受守备的影响。
2. Who is the real Garrett Jones?
2. Garrett Jones到底是真货还是假货?
Entering the 2009 season, Garrett Jones was just another aging, lumbering
minor league slugger with little defensive value, basically indistinguishable
from Mitch Jones or Brian Myrow or Brad Eldred or Andy Tracy or Cory Aldridge
or... well, you get the picture. Usually when a career journeyman
inexplicably has a huge season, it's a fluke. In 2008, for example, aging
nobodies Ryan Ludwick, Ty Wigginton and Jody Gerut all came up big; in 2009,
they just took big steps backward. And to compare the pre-2009 version of
Jones to any of those players would be extremely generous to Jones, who
before last year had been floundering in the Minnesota Twins system for the
better part of a decade.
进入2009年球季时，Garrett Jones只是一位年事已大，防守不佳但有常打能力的小联盟
打者。你知道的，若一位年龄已高却没来由的在一年之中突然爆发的球员很有可能是
假货。拿2008年爆发的Ryan Ludwick、Ty Wigginton和Jody Gerut为例，他们在2009年
都有明显的衰退。
If Jones has one thing going for him, it's that he sustained a high level of
production for the entire season. He hit 33 homers between Triple-A and the
majors, and he didn't do that because of some hot streak—including his time
in the minors, he only had one month with an OPS below .850. He also hit for
average, took some walks, and stole some bases; there wasn't much to dislike
about his offensive performance, or an obvious flaw that will bring him down.
It's likely that 2009 was a career peak for Jones, but it was too good a
season to be dismissed completely. He probably won't post a .938 OPS again,
which is a shame for a Pirates team that desperately needs impact players,
but like Ludwick, he should hit well enough to keep a job.
Jones可能是真货的迹象在于他整个球季都维持超高档的表现，他去年整年在大小联盟
一共轰了33发，仅有一个月OPS小于.850，看来2009的代表作很可能是他的巅峰，
但如此惊人的炮火不会在一年之后完全消失殆尽，他可能不会再打出OPS.938这样的
好表现，但仍能胜任他的先发工作。
3. Are reclamation projects a good idea?
3. 球队的再造计画是否是个好主意?
For better or for worse, the Pirates appear to be trying to answer this
question by generating as much data as possible. During the 2008 and 2009
seasons, the Pirates found themselves in a tricky situation—they were
terrible at the major league level, and many of their core players were
entering their 30s and were about to become free agents. Pirates GM Neal
Huntington did the sensible thing by shopping as many of those players as he
could, but he found that other teams were understandably unwilling to part
with top prospects for the Pirates' crew of mediocrities.
Instead, most of the players Huntington grabbed fit into one of two groups.
One of those was speculative, Single-A-type prospects, who tended to be tall
starting pitchers. The other was players with obvious talent who the Pirates'
trading partners had become annoyed with or disinterested in.
在2008以及2009球季，海盗发现他们处在一个进退两难的处境：战绩不佳而阵中的
核心球员大多已迈向30岁也快可取得自由球员资格，总经理Neal Huntington因此想把
阵中的好手交易出去来换取年轻新秀。但其他GM也没这么傻会拿阵中的顶级新秀去换
一些还称不上是明星级的老鸟，因此Huntington换进的新秀大概可以分为两类:
一类是有天份但离成熟还很遥远的1A球员，另一类则是有天份但是一直表现不佳而被
原球团放弃的球员。
The Bucs' 2010 roster will be filled with players who fall into the latter
category. Despite his being the third overall pick in the
everybody-gets-a-star 2005 draft, the Mariners never found much use for
Clement, who struggled with his defense behind the plate and with injuries.
For years, the Dodgers jerked around third baseman Andy LaRoche, despite his
being one of their best prospects. No one disputes the talent of Milledge,
but his attitude proved to be too much for both the Mets and Nationals.
Ohlendorf was the main piece in the Randy Johnson trade for the Yankees, but
he struggled in the Yankees organization and was shipped to the Pirates in
the Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte deal.
These players all stand a decent chance of at least being average, but given
their histories, there's also reason to hope that one of them gets back on
track for a few years of stardom, much in the same way Carlos Pena or Edwin
Jackson did. Given the quality of the veterans the Pirates were trading away—
and the reluctance of today's general managers to trade top prospects—that's
probably the best the Bucs could have hoped for.
海盗今年的球员似乎属于第二类的居多，像是一直在防守不佳以及在伤痛中挣扎的Clement
，还有一直有态度方面问题而被大都会跟国民放弃的Milledge，以及Andy LaRoche和
Ohlendorf等人。到底这些人会有几个可以成为明日的巨星呢？在海盗很难交易到其他
队伍顶级新秀的情形下，这些人就是海盗未来的希望所在。
4. Will the veteran bullpen produce?
4. 由老将为主的牛棚撑得住吗?
Frankly, it will have to, because there isn't a ton of talent in the minors
to fill in if things go wrong. Pirates fans spent a lot of energy this
offseason worrying about the bullpen, not necessarily because the bullpen was
the team's most pressing problem, but because of Huntington's controversial
decision to non-tender closer Matt Capps after a terrible 2009 season. Given
that other general managers will often overpay for “closers,” it might have
been worthwhile to take Capps to arbitration with the hope of trading him if
he performed well. Huntington's backup plan, though, wasn't bad—he grabbed
an arguably better pitcher, Octavio Dotel, to close for a similar price.
Dotel's age, flyball tendencies, and trouble with lefties could combine to
make him a risky proposition in lefty-friendly PNC Park, but his ability to
rack up strikeouts still makes him a solid gamble.
老实说，他们必须顶住，因为农场里并没有太多可用之兵。休季期间，海盗选择不和去年
表现糟糕的Matt Capps换约，而是选择签下了Octavio Dotel。Dotel虽然有着年龄过高、
滚飞比过低以及对付左打不佳的问题，但他仍保有不错的三振能力，这对海盗来说或许
是个不错的赌注。
To fill out the bullpen, Huntington also signed Brendan Donnelly, D.J.
Carrasco and Javier Lopez for good value. Donnelly pitched brilliantly last
year for the Marlins, and he and Carrasco, who led the majors in relief
innings last year, could be especially helpful. The infusion of talent was
badly needed—the Pirates' 2009 4.61 bullpen ERA was worse than that of any
other NL team except the Nationals, and the only decent arms left over from
2009's mediocre Pirates pen were Joel Hanrahan, who could start the year on
the disabled list, and Evan Meek.
鉴于去年海盗牛棚4.61的ERA在国联只赢过国民，今年签下了Brendan Donnelly、
D.J.Carrasco和Javier Lopez。去年Donnelly在马林鱼投的不错，Carrasco则是去年
吃最多局数的后援投手，这点对海盗来说可能格外重要。而去年的班底留下的可用之兵
还有Joel Hanrahan以及Evan Meek等人。
5. What will the future bring?
5. 将来的发展与走向?
2010 won't be the Pirates' year, but the organization is no longer completely
hopeless. 2009 saw the debut of the brilliant McCutchen; in 2010, third
baseman Pedro Alvarez and outfielder Jose Tabata will probably join him.
Thanks largely to a series of miserable drafts by Huntington's predecessor,
Dave Littlefield, the upper levels of the Pirates' minor league system are
still thin after Alvarez and Tabata. But the lower levels are packed with
more talent than the Pirates have had in years, thanks to the Bucs' series of
trades last year and to their last two drafts, in which they've spent more
combined than any other team.
To a Pirates fan impatient with well over a decade of losing, improvement at
the Single-A level is pretty thin gruel. But you've got to start somewhere,
and for a team that will probably never have a top-10 payroll, “somewhere”
inevitably means the farm system.
别期待2010年海盗就可以脱茧而出，但也不是全然没有希望。去年我们目睹了McCutchen
这颗新星的崛起，今年也许Pedro Alvarez和Jose Tabata就会跟随他的脚步而开始发光
发热。除此之外，感谢前任经理Dave Littlefield接连几次奇糟无比的选秀，目前海盗
的高阶农场里并没有其他可期待的人选。不过去年海盗几次交易中倒是补进了不少低阶
农场的潜力新秀。也许这些小球员并无法给海盗什么及时的补强，但要对于小市场球队
要走出连年不振的唯一方法仍是得靠农场系统。
There are still a number of questions to be answered about the people
currently running the Pirates. Will Huntington have the talent evaluation
chops necessary to turn a reasonable core of young talent into a real
contender? Will owner Bob Nutting finally raise the payroll to the $80
million range if Huntington can get the team to the verge of contention? But
for once, it isn't ridiculous to imagine winning baseball in the Pirates'
future. It won't happen this year, and it probably won't in 2011, but for the
first time in years, the Bucs are headed in the right direction.
对于今年的海盗而言仍存有许多问号，但总结来说，海盗也许会在将来成为一支常胜军，
当然不是在今年，可能也不会是明年，但这些年来海盗终于开始往对的方向前进。
PS: 第一次尝试翻译，如有遗漏缺失还请多多包涵指教
没想到短短一篇文章也花了两个多小时来打字翻译
本来想逐字翻的 后来就只能跳着节录重点了XD
※ 编辑: scottc 来自: 114.25.240.55 (04/02 23:22)

明年跟蓝鸟还有教士征炉主的

推~不过losing season是指胜率没过半

感谢翻译 这五个问题也问到症结

感谢二楼指正^^

大推！