Five questions: New York Mets
by Jonathan Halket
April 02, 2010
Some questions are questions, others are really answers. The Mets enter the
2010 season with question marks hovering ominously over virtually every
player. There remains much that is unsure or even unknown about this team.
But the number and nature of so many of the questions should help us answer
two questions about the team's prospects and management's prospects.
大都会有些问题今年还是问题，有些则会找到答案。某些球员的情况还是差不多，所以
有些问题的前景还是不太乐观，还是有很多不确定甚至不明的问题围绕着这支球队，但
总有些问题的数据本质有助于解答两个问题──这支球队跟管理阶层的前景。
How healthy is Jose Reyes? Will Jason Bay be a huge liability in left field?
What about Jeff Francoeur at the plate? Can the new, veteran catchers, Rod
Barajas and Henry Blanco, really help the pitching staff? How much will Luis
Castillo regress from last season? Will the bullpen be any good? Will David
Wright's power return? These are some of the questions that I don't ask—I
have only five. However, I might sneakily answer some of them as I deal with
some of the others.
Reyes还是健康宝宝吗？Bay会担起镇守左外野跟大棒子的责任吗？粉酷的选球呢 (这句
不太确定)？Barajas跟Blanco这两个新的老捕手对于轮值有帮助吗？Castillo会回春吗
？牛棚今年的表现如何？Wright可以找回他的砲瓦吗？这一篇为什么只给我五个问题呢
.........看来我只能回答一些啦！旁敲侧击看看其他的会不会得到解答吧！
1. Whither Carlos Beltran?
Beltran的状况怎样？
When the Mets signed Beltran in 2005, they were buying the services of a
complete player. When healthy, he's been probably the best center fielder in
the game the past several years. After undergoing some sort of knee surgery
(at one point rumored to be microfracture surgery, but seemingly merely
arthroscopic in nature) this past season, there are naturally some questions
about how much speed he'll still have. Always an extremely savvy
base-stealer, he'd seen some decline in stolen base attempts in recent years
as his knee pain worsened.
05年签下 Beltran之后，只要健康，大都会就是买到一个几乎完美的顶级CF，但是动了
膝盖手术后，想当然尔对他的速度就会有所质疑，Beltran 是一个很懂得抓盗垒时机的
球员，但是膝盖的情况会逐年下滑，尝试盗垒的次数也会。
However, the bigger reason to wonder about his speed is because of the runs
he saves in the field. As spacious as Citi Field's outfield is and with Bay
and Francoeur totemically manning left and right field, Beltran's leatherwork
is invaluable. A lost step in either direction could see many more doubles
for opposing hitters.
盗垒的问题还好，最大的问题还是在防守，Citi Field的外野这么大，相较于 Beltran
的神威，左右外野的粉酷跟 Bay就只是收集公仔一般，如果失去了对飞球第一步的判断
，那对手就会出现更多长打了。
Angel Pagan should see the lion's share of playing time in center until
Beltran returns (at the earliest in mid-May). With a UZR of 5.8 and a batting
average of .306 last season, Pagan won't be a precipitous drop-off for the
Mets on the field or getting on base (though Beltran is much better at
drawing walks). Of course, if for some terrible reason the Mets choose to
play Gary Matthews Jr., then there will be calamity in center.
在Beltran最快要到五月中才能归队之前，Pagan会吃掉最多CF的场次，去年他有.306的
打击率跟UZR 5.8的成绩，即使Beltran比较会选BB，Pagan 还是不该被大都会免洗，当
然啦！如果不得已在先发CF会常常看到GMJ*的话，恐怕就是惨剧一场了。
The Mets won't be able to replace Beltran's power from the center field spot,
though. There has been some chatter in the ether forecasting a fall in
Beltran's power. Even THT's own projection, Oliver, barely has him breaking
20 home runs in any season for the rest of his career. I am not so dour; I
still see him staying above 25 home runs (based on a full season's number of
plate appearances). The dramatic fall in his HR/FB rate in 2009 to 10.8
percent echoes the fall in 2005 from which he rebounded nicely to his more
usual career levels. Even the slightest fall in power will be keenly felt,
though, because of the lack of power at other spots on the field.
大都会期他CF都不可能拥有Beltran这种砲瓦，然而还是有些预测觉得Beltran的砲管在
缩小当中，在THT自己的预测里都觉得Beltran在生涯后段可能少有超过20轰的球季了，
我觉得还好啦！我觉得可以健康打完的话他每年还是可以有25轰以上，09年 HR/FB夸张
的 10.8%是05年的惨状以后首见，在砲瓦这一环是牵一发而动全身的，大都会其他位置
缺乏的砲瓦会让Beltran砲管任何缩减都会被注意。
2. Does it really matter who's on first?
谁在一垒差多少？
The biggest power difference between the Mets and the rest of the league will
come at first base. As any fantasy player knows, first base is stuffed with
power throughout the league. While the Mets had Carlos Delgado in the lineup,
the team was no different. No longer—neither likely starter Daniel Murphy
nor potential backups Mike Jacobs, Chris Carter and Fernando Tatis—is going
to bring league average power (for a first baseman) to the plate. (Just in
case you were wondering, Jacobs had a slugging percentage of only .401 last
year, which is off the map for a first baseman.)
大都会跟其他球队差最多的是1B，有玩FB的都懂啦！1B应该要是有砲瓦的大棒子，以前
Delgado 先发的时候是这样啦！但是换成Murphy先发之后就差多了，即使是由Jacobs，
C.Carter或是Tatis当backup，状况是一样。(豆知识：Jacobs去年的长打率只有.401，
以一个1B的水准而言还差多了。)
The Mets' hopes rest instead on either Murphy becoming a sort of Keith
Hernandez-esque line drive machine or on minor leaguer Ike Davis stepping-in
and winning the role and fans' hearts. Murphy does show great contact
percentage, which makes up for his low walk rates, and he does hit a lot of
doubles. But his groundball rate, at 40 percent, is a little uncomfortably
high.
大都会希望Murphy或其他替补人选至少可以像 Keith Hernendez那样很会打line drive
，或者像Ike Davis那样即将成为战力(至少要吸引球迷)，Murphy的确有不错的contact
跟还满多的二安，多少弥补了选到很少BB的缺点，但是多达 40%的滚地球比例还是不太
好看。
Meanwhile, Davis had a nice spring training before being sent back down to
the minors for more seasoning. However, he doesn't project to be a huge power
threat—the consensus seems to be an upside best of around 25 home runs in a
full season at peak age. Maybe, maybe he'll out-project and hit more one day,
but probably not, and almost certainly not this season.
在被送回minor等待成长之前，Davis今年春训表现很好，但是他仍然不算很大只的砲管
，一般预测即使在高峰时期他也就是个25轰左右的打者，当然他可能长的更好，但是机
率不大；就算是，也不会是现在。
All this means that if the middle of the order batters are on base, the
bottom of order is going to struggle driving them in. With three from among
Castillo, Murphy, Francoeur and Barajas/Blanco at the bottom of the batting
order, there won't be many repercussions from walking the fifth spot. And
that's when the full lineup is healthy. With Murphy now injured, the opening
day lineup could look like: Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Jacobs,
Cora and Barajas.
这代表即使中心打者上垒了，后段棒次也很难送他们回来。Castillo，Murphy，粉酷还
有捕手的后段棒次都可能会让对手保送第五棒来抓他们，而这是全员健康的时候。因为
Murphy现在要蹲在DL，开季大都会的lineup将会是 Pagan-Castillo-Wright-Bay-粉酷-
Jacobs-Cora-Barajas。
3. Will the starting pitching drive Mets fans to the bottle?
SP们可以再让球迷充满希望吗？
Johan Santana's coming back from elbow surgery but should be fine. Pray that
he is because the other starters can give ulcers. Everybody's wondering if
Mike Pelfrey is going to fulfill the potential that he kind of flashed in
2008. He's a riddle but he's now the team's No. 2.
山大王开刀动了手肘，但应该没啥大碍，只能期待他因为其他SP恐怕都很惨。大家都觉
得 Pelfrey在08年的大惊奇已经是他的天花板了，他还是个谜样的投手但他现在是大都
会的二号。
Behind him are John Maine and Oliver Perez, both youngish guys who've
actually pitched better seasons than Pelfrey. But right now, they're even
bigger enigmas.
接着是 Maine跟Perez，他们都还年轻而且都有投过比Pelfrey更好的球季，但现在一切
也都是问号。
Perez's Jekyll and Hyde routine is well known and he's shown no sign of
righting himself this spring. Maine is a more recent member of the asylum.
Last year, even when healthy, he was hugely inconsistent. In no start did he
go more than seven innings. Out of his 15 starts, he gave up at least five
runs five times, but also gave up fewer than two runs in seven starts. Both
on the mound and off, he rarely seems to be happy with the way he pitches.
OP丢铜板式的表现大家都知道，从今年的春训看起来好像没有改善。姜面看起来更像要
好好调养，去年即使是健康的时候他都很不稳定，没有一场投超过七局，15次先发里有
五次失五分以上，也有七次掉不到两分，不管是哪一种表现，他看起来对自己都很不满
意。
All this means that Jonathon Niese, who just a week ago was still battling
for a spot on the major league roster, is now being fitted for the third spot
in the rotation (not that the order of the rotation is all that important).
Niese might actually be able to deliver on that spot, though he might also
struggle, much as Pelfrey did (and still does). Maine and, especially, Perez,
have the talent to be middle of the rotation pitchers. So, as an upside, the
team might have an above average rotation behind Santana. More likely,
though, is that team gets subpar contributions from at least one, probably
two or three and possibly all four pitchers.
种种迹象显示不久前可能还在竞争MLB开季资格的Niese可能比较适合三号，实际顺序不
是重点，但是比起Pelfrey，Maine跟更严重的Perez的问题，Niese还比较好一点。他们
的确是很有天分的投手，但是至少到目前为止，对于大都会的rotation，除了山大王之
外可能都不能有平均水准的贡献，可能其中一两个有问题，最惨的情况就是中后段轮值
龟邹海料料。
4. "Should I buy my playoff tickets yet?"
"我现在可以买季后赛门票吗？"
Um, no. If this were the NHL or NBA, where eight teams from each league get
into the postseason, then maybe.
免笑想，去做像是NHL或NBA那样每个联盟选八队进入季后赛的白日梦比较快。
The management and even some members of the media would have us focus on what
MIGHT happen. Certainly, the Mets might make the playoffs; odder things have
happened. They have a quartet of players, who, if healthy, offer a more than
solid foundation to build a playoff or even championship team. Adding Bay
into that mix does not hurt.
管理阶层或是某些媒体会让我们做着那些"可能"的梦，像是大都会可能会打到十月之类
；健康情况下大都会的确有不错的球员，有不错的球队主干，加入了 Bay之后看起来也
的确像是大加分。
But the Mets aren't likely to make the playoffs. I can think of at least as
many scenarios that would have them finish below .500 as above it: Beltran
doesn't make it back as or when expected. Same for Reyes. Wright's power
doesn't return to normal. All would be mortal blows to the season. These are
just the things that went wrong last season that have to revert to normal; it
doesn't count the things that could go wrong this year that were normal last
year—like, say, if Francisco Rodriguez gets injured.
但其实大都会不太可能有季后赛，我觉得今年低于五成胜率的机会还比较高， Beltran
跟 Reyes都不太确定归队的日期，Wright的砲瓦好像也回不到从前，这些都可能砸了今
年。而且都还只是去年的问题而已喔！如果今年有新的问题还要再说，比如说 K-Rod如
果受伤的话.......
And that's just to make it above 81 wins. To get into the playoffs, the
Mets'll probably need 14-15 wins from at least one of their non-Santana
pitchers and at least 10-11 from still two more. They'll need one and more
likely two among Castillo, Francoeur and Murphy to be positive offensively.
And the rest of the bullpen will need to be helpful as well. Basic
probability tells us that it is very unlikely that enough of these come true
for the Mets to put champagne on ice.
这些问题都解决恐怕也只能达到五成胜率，如果要打进季后赛，可能要有山大王以外的
投手拿个14~15胜，然后再有两个人拿个10~11胜，还要有个比Castillo，Murphy，粉酷
还要更有威胁的棒子，牛棚不要再来搞笑，种种迹象都显示大都会跟要喷香槟还有一段
距离。
5. When will Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel get their first unemployment checks?
Minaya跟Manuel什么时候会走人？
Of course, it'll all depend on the team's performance. But chances are they
are fired when it becomes clear that the team isn't playoff bound, and
deservedly so. Manuel seems to have no vision for the team, no theory on
baseball to be held and hold himself accountable to. He's a dabbler who
repeats his past mistakes and abandons experiments whimsically.
这跟球队的表现有关，但一个他们可能被火的时机会出现在当大都会可能失去季后赛契
机的时候，而且当然啦我觉得他们不会有季后赛可打。Manuel看起来没有对球队的方针
，也没什么棒球理论会支持他。他就好像沾酱油的这里试一下那里试一下，但是每次都
异想天开的放弃那些可以从错误中学得的经验，然后重蹈覆辙。
Minaya seems to have marginally more focus. Of course, the contracts he's
given to Castillo and Perez are disasters that have handcuffed the team. He's
shown himself capable of signing other, more productive talent as long as he
pays top dollar. His trade for Santana has worked out well.
Minaya会是更被放在放大镜下检视的角色，他签给Castillo跟OP的合约都套牢了球队，
他曾经在山大王的交易中证明了他可以表现的很好，在签Castillo跟OP这种合约的时候
他应该有更好的选择才是。
It is usual PR shtick to focus on possibilities, instead of probabilities
when talking with the media—like how Francoeur might maintain the production
he gave the team for half a season last year. The problem is that Minaya
might be drinking his own Kool-Aid; he buys into the upside too much. And his
little head-scratchers start to add up. Why did he trade for J.J. Putz
without giving him a physical? Why did he chase Heath Bell out of town? Why
sign Alex Cora to (effectively) a two-year, $2 million per year contract? Why
sign Cora, or any backup shortstop, that you're uncomfortable playing if
Reyes starts the season on the DL, especially when Reyes spent much of last
season on the DL? Why give up anything for Matthews?
很多的问题，那些小摊贩赌机率就算了，Minaya连对媒体的发言也好像都在下注，比方
说你能期待粉酷表现得像去年后半他转来以后那样吗？Minaya就好像喝茫了一样每次都
对于极限情况下注，为什么对Putz的体检跟健康状况搞成这样？为什么赶走Bell？为什
么给Cora这种等级的替补SS 4M/2y？当 Reyes开季要待在DL，可以预期球队开季不太顺
的时候你却只有Cora这种backup？GMJ*这一笔又是哪招？
(drinking his own Kool-Aid这里不太会翻，请大家帮个忙....)
Minaya seems to value intangible, unquantifiable traits. The nice thing about
them from an executive's perspective is that it is hard to be held
accountable for misreading them. Perhaps there are some intangibles that are
genuinely valuable, but if so, Minaya's hoarding of them hasn't been
reflected in the team's performance (has any team been less "clutch" in the
past three or four years?).
Minaya很爱去衡量那些无形的，不太够格上台面的特点，说真的，就执行观点来看，要
苛责他去对这些误解负责有些困难，也许那些无形的东西真的有他的价值，但即使如此
，Minaya对这些的坚持也没有反应在球队的实际表现上。 (过去三四年，有哪支球队比
大都会更会在关键时刻出槌呢？←这应该是说过去几年季末崩盘的事)
If there were any justice for the fans, the owners—the Wilpons—would be
fired as well. I doubt that Minaya would've done better unfettered, but it is
pretty clear that Jeff Wilpon was not helpful either—tales of how he was
caught up in the Rasputin-like influence of the assistant GM, Tony Bernazard,
seem telling. The Mets owners seem to remove problems only when the fans
start to blame the ownership for them; they're never out in front of the
problem.
如果对球迷要公平一点的话，老板(Wilpons)也应该要走人，我怀疑 Minaya会解套，但
很明显的是Wilpon对球队的现况也没有帮助。流言指出，除非球迷已经把矛头指向高层
，否则对于这些问题高层通常只会搞河蟹。
If/when Minaya and Manuel are fired, the essential thing for the team is that
the Wilpons (particularly Jeff Wilpon if he's calling the shots now) ask
themselves some tough questions: "Do I (Jeff) have enough knowledge of
business to help run operations at all? Do I have enough knowledge of
baseball to give input on personnel decisions?"
如果Minaya跟Manuel走人了，Wilpon必须要扪心自问的是：我对于球队management的了
解够吗？我对于球队的人事问题够了解吗？
The team, despite its Bernie Madoff woes, will have more resources than most
other teams. With any luck, the Wilpons will hire a management team that
understands management and baseball, a team that uses its experiences to
learn from its mistakes, uses statistics and scouting properly to inform
decisions and doesn't reverse-engineer rationals for actions. Then maybe the
Wilpons can start thinking of putting some champagne on ice.
尽管像是 Bernie Madoff大悲剧一般的惨状，这支球队还是需要比其他球队更多的对策
来处理，万幸的是，Wilpons 将会雇用一个更了解球队事物的经营团队来用他们的经验
去从错误中学习，利用数据分析跟球探报告去下决策然后不要重蹈覆辙，这样的话也许
高层才有机会去想想要怎么开香槟吧！