http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-oakland-athletics4/
Five questions: Oakland Athletics
by Sal Baxamusa
March 22, 2010
What evil lurks in the heart of Beane this year? THT's five questions knows...
老奸巨猾的豆爷今年又打着怎样的如意算盘呢？
继续把THT今年的"五大哉问"给看下去就知道啦...
Q1. Great bullpen, or greatest bullpen?
很棒的牛棚？还是最棒的牛棚？
Great performances on bad teams are rarely appreciated, so it would be a shame
if the A's bullpen were overlooked again this year.
人们很少称许差劲的球队上某方面的突出表现；
但如果今年再度无视绿帽牛棚的人，那应该对自诩是棒球迷这点感到汗颜。
The relief corps last year accounted for somewhere between six and seven wins,
by far the best in the majors (the Yankees were around five wins and everybody
else was less than four). For a team that stunk so badly last year, the bullpen
was truly outstanding. The core of the bullpen—Rookie of the Year Andrew
Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, and Mike Wuertz—is returning this year,
and a post-Tommy John Joey Devine will be thrown into the mix. Nobody is
expecting these guys to put up a collective 3.35 FIP again, but these are some
seriously talented relievers. I'm not positive, but I'm fairly certain the A's
are projected to have the best bullpen in the American League, probably around
four and a half or five wins.
绿帽的牛棚揪竟有多棒呢？如果将之数据化，去年他们的贡献大概在6到7胜，傲笑联盟
（台湾最爱的豪门洋基约在5胜之谱，而剩下的球队牛棚贡献都小于4胜）。对一支去年
超烂的球队来说，他们的牛棚还真不是盖的！绿帽牛棚的核心群——2009新人王Andrew
Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow,和Mike Wuertz今年通通到位，甚至开完TJ的
前终结者Joey Devine也会回归。奢求他们再次复制一次去年牛棚FIP 3.35的超人表现
当然太乐观，尽管这些中继天分十足。持平来说，我相信绿帽牛棚今年仍是美联最佳，
有可能贡献4.5至5胜。
They're a fun bunch, too. Bailey is the fire-breathing failed starter let loose
in the bullpen. Ziegler is the submarining deception artist. Breslow is the
intellectual. Wuertz is just some dude until he unleashes the best slider in
the majors. The A's have tons of questions in the rotation—Ben Sheets, Dallas
Braden and Justin Duchscherer are coming off major injuries—but if they can
get the game to the bullpen, this group will close it out.
顺道一提，这牛棚组合也很有趣：先发转职牛棚抒困的Bailey、潜水艇欺骗专家Ziegler、
知识分子Breslow、若非在大联盟投出超棒滑球不然根本是个路人甲的Wuertz。
绿帽的先发轮值当然问题重重——扁食、布雷登、嘟起惹都才从重伤复出——然而，
要是他们可以把比赛交给牛棚，一切看起来就妥当了。
If they're not all injured. Which, apparently, can happen very quickly—in one
day last week, Devine, Breslow, Wuertz and Bailey were all injured.
喔，我是说“假使牛棚非DL大队”的话，呃，这显然极有可能马上发生——上周
Devine, Breslow, Wuertz跟Bailey就全中标了...
(译者OS：这是绿帽近几年的原罪吗？)
Q2. Who's going to be your boy this year?
哪个人是你今年的“宝贝”呢？
Every year, an Athletic is designated "my boy." When "my boy" does something
even marginally good, like reach base on an error, I run around the house
screaming "That's my boy!" It reconfirms to my wife that despite my advanced
degree, mature parenting, and calm-but-strong leadership of the househould, I
am actually a grade-A buffoon.
每一年我都会选一名绿帽球员作为“我的宝贝”，当“我的宝贝”每回有好表现时，
譬如靠着失误上垒，我都会在房子里团团转尖叫着：“这就是我的宝贝！”
我老婆总能再次确定在高学历、拥有成熟为父之道、沈著但坚毅的户长身份下，她丈夫
其实是个一等一的狂热笨蛋。
（译者OS：每年都来这段解释是在骗稿费吗？)
I've had some pretty embarassing choices in years past—Esteban Loaiza was a
disaster of the highest order—but I did well in choosing Braden and his 3.73
FIP last year. So which player will reduce me to sheer idiocy this year? This
year, I am going with Daric Barton. Did you know that Barton had laser eye
surgery and is being more selective at the plate? Why, it's almost as if he
were in the best shape of his life! There's no way he won't come on like
gangbusters!
当然我也当过大仙——Esteban Loaiza就是我的代表作——但是我去年挑的布雷登
（FIP 3.73）就挺不赖的～所以，2010哪位宝贝将再度使我疯狂呢？
就决定是你了！Daric Barton！你们知道他动了眼睛雷射手术，选球也变得更精了吗？
因为他正在正处于有史以来体格最好的状态！今年没道理他不变成捍卫战警！
Due to veteran deference, poor roster management, and perhaps a vain attempt at
contention, it's possible that the A's do something bizarre like platoon Eric
Chavez and Jake Fox at first base. That would be foolish, however, since it
would require optioning Barton back to Triple-A. With super-prospect Chris
Carter rocketing through the system, this is the year for the A's to see what
kind of hitter they have in Barton. If he's the .400 OBP/40 doubles machine
that everybody thought he was a few years ago, then maybe the A's have to see
if Carter can fake a passable left field. The likelihood that Barton is the
kind of player that forces a top-15 prospect into a position change is slim.
But it's worth finding out, since Carter-as-firstbaseman renders Barton wholly
redundant.
由于辈份上的问题、糟糕的阵容调整、或是无效的争辩讨论，绿帽今年1B可能会排出
Chavy/Jake Fox这种诡异的组合，而这么一来Barton就得丢到3A去，也太愚蠢了！
头号新秀Chris Carter即将登上大联盟，今年绿帽必须认真评估Barton是名怎样的打者，
如果Barton能成为几年前大家心目中的.400 OBP/40支2B制造机，绿帽就必须考虑Carter
能否假扮成可用的LF（译者OS：像神奇杰克那种吗？)。好吧，我知道Barton让一个前15
的新秀改变守位的机率可说是微乎其微，不过尝试一下又何妨？反正“1B Carter”上来
Barton就只是个鸡肋...
Come on, Barton. You're my boy!
你行的～Barton，你可是我的宝贝啊！
Q3. Shouldn't the A's have extended Miguel Tejada instead of Eric Chavez?
绿帽当初该绑八毛而非恰V吗？
The next person who says the A's should have kept Miguel Tejada over Eric
Chavez is going to get a severe poke in the eye from yours truly. I am not
inclined to rehash that silly discussion. Nor am I in any mood to discuss in
detail the delicate interplay between Chavez's health and the A's 25-man roster.
我知道提出这问题的人一定被你们的眼神杀死了，我不是打算再老生常谈这老梗，
更没心情谈论Chavy的健康状况与绿帽25人名单之间微妙的关系...
It suffices to say that the A's stand to lose a useful player on waivers—maybe
Jake Fox, maybe Eric Patterson—if they include Chavez on the roster as a
utility infielder. Chavez is unlikely to contribute much with the bat or the
glove and he's going to get hurt soon anyway. What's best for the team is the
failed comeback of my favorite player. I find this position so untenable that I
prefer to ignore this ugly reality rather than confront it.
事实很明显：要是绿帽决定将Chavy定位为内野工具人，就必须冒着将Jake Fox或是
Eric Patterson两者其一丢到waiver的风险。Chavy棒子与手套的贡献显然有限，而且
反正他“迟早”会又回到DL。因此对球队最佳的结果就是，我最喜欢的球员再度伤后复出
失败...这事实真是太残酷太难堪了，我无法面对，I can't.
I'm not going expend emotional energy hoping for Beulah to reunite and stage a
comeback tour, but that doesn't mean that I can't still enjoy Emma Blowgun's
Last Stand. In the same vein, there's no harm in reflecting on Chavez's career.
这就像我并不打算幻想Beulah乐团某天能复出并来个巡回演唱，但至少我依旧可以享受
他们的单曲"Emma Blowgun's Last Stand"。同理可证，缅怀一下Chavy过去灿烂的生涯
也无妨。
At the close of 2005 season, Chavez had picked up five consecutive Gold Gloves,
consistently hit for a 120-130 OPS+, and had missed significant time only due
to an injury sustained on a hit-by-pitch. With normal aging and reasonable
health, he would have finished his career as one of the top five position
players in Oakland history and even had an outside shot at the Hall of Fame.
2005球季结束时，Chavy连拿了五座金手套，持续贡献120-130 OPS+，只有一回触身受伤
离开球场比较久。按照这轨迹，他生涯数据将成为绿帽史上前五的野手；甚至有机会一试
名人堂。
Then, everything fell apart. His back, shoulder, butt and hamstrings all
exploded; superstar body parts were scattered all over the disabled list. There
was rehab and surgery and whispers of retirement. Chavez managed to keep things
together long enough to put together a nice 2006 season, but he has been an
unmitigated disaster since then. Chavez and his comebacks have turned into
something of a running gag, and while I can't fault the professional snark
peddlers, it's worth remembering just how good Chavez was when he was on. For
that bit of reminiscing, I turn to one of my favorite bloggers, erstwhile
proprietor of Catfish Stew Ken Arneson:
但接下来大家都知道发生了什么事，我们明星三垒手的身体整组坏了了；
复健、手术、退休的耳语就此萦绕。Chavy也曾把健康找回来过而有个不错的2006球季，
但在此之后，就全然是一场灾难，他的复出也成了固定的肥皂剧戏码。
不过还是值得回想过去的他有多棒，这里我引用一位我最爱的部落客Ken Arneson的文：
The latest jaw-dropper took place last night. With one out, runners on
second and third, and Texas one run down, Chavez took a chopper near the
bag, and quickly tagged out Mark DeRosa trying to return to third base.
Now, I can't ever remember seeing a 5-unassisted at third base like that
before, but Chavez didn't stop there. After tagging out DeRosa, he jumped
over him into foul territory, planted his feet, and fired across the
diamond to throw out the batter, Ian Kinsler. Double play, inning over.
Mouth agape.
What can you say after a play like that? Only two words come to mind.
"Time machine"?
最近一回让人惊叹的守备出现在昨晚。当时一出局，跑者分站二三垒，条子还落后
一分。Chavez在垒包旁接下一记强劲的反弹球，马上触杀了回垒不及的Mark DeRosa；
接下出现了我从未见过三垒助杀：Chavy触杀跑者后并未停下来，他跳过了DeRosa到
界外区，站稳脚步，对角长传一垒，火球触杀了打者Ian Kinsler，双杀，换边。
张目结舌。
看了这种金手套级的守备你还能说啥？脑袋只浮现四个字。
“时光机器”？
Q4. Is Ryan Sweeney better than Jacoby Ellsbury?
我们家的Ryan Sweeney有比红袜小帅哥好吗？
No, but it's closer than you think. Over the last two years, Ryan Sweeney has a
wOBA of .328 and .330. Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox is at .333 and
.354. But wait! Ellsbury plays in a great hitter's park; Sweeney, not so much.
Their park- and team-adjusted linear weights over the last two years, according
to Sean Smith's Baseball Projection, are 4.3 runs/700 PA for Sweeney and -3.3
runs/700 PA for Ellsbury. Put it all together and throw in some regression and
Ellsbury and Sweeney have similar values as hitters. Indeed, both the THT
forecasts and CHONE project them to be almost identical hitters in 2010.
答案是，否。但远比你想像地来得接近。Sweeney这两年的wOBA分别是.328跟.330，不及
Ells的.333跟.354。但～揪兜妈得～人家可是在著名打者球场的成绩呢，倘若我们将球场
因素以及球队线性加权代入这两年的数据，根据Sean Smith's Baseball Projection，
Sweeney每700PA是4.3分；Ellsbury每700PA则是负3.3。把这些数据通通代入并加以回归
分析，你将发现他们两位在打击上的贡献其实是大同小异的。事实上，2010年THT与CHONE
对这两人的预测的确是几乎一样的！
The defensive numbers say that Sweeney is slightly above average fielder in
center field and well above-average in the corners. The opinion on Ellsbury is
mixed; he's had stellar seasons and he's had awful seasons, depending on the
year and the defensive metric. Sweeney's got a good arm; Ellsbury doesn't.
Tango's Fan Scouting report suggests they are rough equals in the field. I buy
that.
讨论完打击再来讲守备。Sweeney中外野的防守数据略高于平均，而两角的防守数据远高
于均值。而Ellsbury的数据有些复杂，他每年的表现落差太大。我们可以说Sweeney强肩、
Ells则无。我采信Tango's Fan Scouting报告上说他们俩在防守上粗略相同的说法。
So Sweeney and Ellsbury are pretty much the same player, except for two
important differences. First, Ellsbury is massively better on the bases,
perhaps by as much as one win. This gives him additional value afield that
Sweeney will likely never match. Second—and I'll bet you'd never guess this—
Sweeney is a year-and-a-half younger than Ellsbury. I have this image in my
head as Ellsbury as some young buck, but he turned 26 last season. On the other
hand, Sweeney seems like a failed prospect trying to build a second life for
himself as a role player. He just turned 25.
结论是这两位基本上可以说是差不多的球员，除了两个重大的差别：首先，Ells在垒包
间能力强的太多，差不多可以多贡献一胜，这是Sweeney所无法取代的。至于第二点——
你可能怎么猜都猜不著——Sweeney小Ellsbury一岁半！奇怪的是，当提到Ellsbury，
我第一个想到的是年轻的肉体（但他去年就26岁了）；而反过来Sweeney的印象则是，
要找回第二春的失败新秀（人家明明才刚满25）。
That doesn't make Sweeney a better player than Ellsbury, nor am I suggesting
that he will be in the future. But Sweeney and Ellsbury are basically the same
player at the plate and in the field. And Sweeney's youth (and build—this guy
could sell jeans) suggests that he might have room to grow. His swing, which
was defnitely not built for power, doesn't make me optimistic, but he's still
just a kid.
不过那有可能只是自嗨，年纪的差距并不会让Sweeney变得比Ellsbury更好，我想未来也
不会。但经由上述分析，基本上他们俩的棒子跟手套都一样；而Sweeney的年纪和汉草
暗示着他有成长的空间，虽然他的挥棒显然并非追求砲瓦令我担心，不管啦～反正
He still has time.
So what was the point of my comparison? I'm not really sure. But you know what?
Ryan Sweeney is better than you think he is.
这个问题比来比去到底重点是啥？
管他的不重要，总之Sweeney比你想像的要好就是了。
Q5. Will the A's make the playoffs?
绿帽今年会进季后赛吗？
It's possible, but they're far from the favorites. The AL West is going to be
close this year. Texas and Anaheim are probably 85-90 win teams, Seattle
between 83-88, and Oakland just a tick behind. That's close enough that
unexpectedly good performances—c'mon Barton, you're my boy!—and just plain
dumb luck can drag any team to the top. Oakland is an interesting case, though.
If the A's are playing well enough to challenge for the division—an unlikely
but not ridiculous hypothetical—there is a good chance that the team playing
down the stretch is not the team that is projected to be around .500 at this
moment.
有可能...不过不是被看好的那支。今年的美西竞争十分激烈，条子与猴子是85-90胜等级
的队伍，水手约83-88胜，绿帽则差了一些。任何出乎预料的好表现——你行的～Barton
，你可是我的宝贝啊！——加上一些运气，都有可能将任一支球队登顶。绿帽的例子又
比较特殊，假使绿帽最终战绩真有机会挑战分区龙头——不太可能但不流于荒谬的假设—
—那时将是一支与此刻预测战绩胜率五成不同的另一支队伍。
Why? Because if the A's are contending late into the season, it will almost
certainly be because Sheets is healthy and ace-like, the only anxiety
surrounding Duchscherer is that of opposing batters, and players not on the
Opening Day roster are making key contributions. In other words, if the A's are
playing well late in the year, they will be a 85-90 win true talent team. To
some extent, this is true for many teams. But I imagine this effect is greater
for the A's given the injured pitchers with the potential for high-end
performance and the star prospects waiting in the minor leagues.
理由何在？因为绿帽要是在季末仍保有竞争力，几乎可以确认那时的扁食是张健康的王牌
，嘟起惹能够面对打者，加上不在开幕名单上的球员起了关键性的作用。换句话说，
若绿帽年底还打得不错，他们将是支85-90胜、球员充满天分的球队。就某方面而言，
这策略代入很多球队都适用。但我认为，绿帽的效果可能会大的多，毕竟他们对这群伤后
复出的投手们、跟小联盟新秀的殷盼甚深。