美政府停摆 元大宝华：美债信压力恐升 10月底国会讨论是关键！
U.S. government shutdown begins. Yuanta Polaris: the U.S. faces heightened
credit pressure, and congressional debate at October's end is essential!
美国陷入财政僵局，白宫已正式宣布联邦政府进入有秩序的短期停摆阶段。在通过预算案
前，联邦政府仅可以最少的人力运作，约有40%的联邦员工被要求放无薪假或减少工时，
元大宝华综合经济研究院表示，若未来两党意识形态争端激化，将威胁到后续对举债上限
的协议，并对经济带来巨大的冲击，不排除影响会超过2011年时美债降评事件，除了全年
经济可能因此减速1个百分点外，金融市场也会出现重大的修正，未来1个月美国债信压力
将升温，而10月底国会是否能完成讨论，将是关键。
The U.S. is immersed in fiscal impasse, and the White House has offically
announced an oderly, temporary shutdown of the federal government. Before the
budget bill is passed, the federal government has to function only with minimal
personnel, and about 40% of federal workers have been asked to take unpaid
furloughs or cut working hours. Yuanta Polaris Research Institute said that
further intensification of ideological disputes between two parties will
threaten subsequent negotiations on debt ceiling and bring huge economic
impacts, and it can't be ruled out that the effect will exceed the U.S.
credit-rating downgrade in 2011. Except the possibility of a one-percent
reduction in economic growth, there will also be a significant financial
market correction. Credit pressure will have been heightening for a month,
and it is essential whether a congressional debate will have been completed
by October's end.
元大宝华指出，联邦政府已进入有秩序地短期停摆阶段，但只要未来两院协商可尽快于短
时间内寻求交集，并通过法案、恢复正常运作，因不致对经济带来反转性的压力。
Yuanta Polaris pointed out that the federal government has entered an orderly,
temporary shutdown. If agreements can be reached as soon as possible through
future negotiations between the two chambers, the bill can be passed, and the
functioning of the government can be resumed, it won't bring about a reversive
pressure on the economy.
然而，由当前国会政治角力可看出，目前两党已脱离财政议题层面讨论，且正陷于是否应
该要实施Obamacare的意识形态之争，导致过去一段时间两党间几乎没有正面且认真的协
商；假使未来意识形态争端恶化，将威胁后续对举债上限的协议。
However, from the current political wrangling in the congress, it can be seen
that the two parties have moved away from fiscal issues, and they have plunged
into ideological disputes on the enforcement of Obamacare, which lead to the
absense of positive and serious bipartisan negotiations over a period of time.
If ideological disputes exacerbate further, they will threaten subsequent
negotiations on debt ceiling.
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