Greg Maddux is famous for his inability to hold runners on base. It's about
the only thing he hasn't done well in his career, and last year the problem
extended through the entire Padres starting rotation. For instance, runners
were 44 for 44 against 6'10" Chris Young.
Greg Maddux不擅长看住垒上跑者是众所皆知的。这大慨是他的职业生涯中唯一表现比较
差的部分，而上个球季这个问题延伸到教士队整个先发轮值。例如: 跑者面对6呎10吋的
Chris Young尝试盗垒44次，也成功了44次。
It was a problem, and as the season wore on it became a huge topic for
discussion in San Diego. They were stealing on Jake Peavy, and Maddux, and of
course Young.
随着球季的进行，对圣地牙哥教士队而言，这是一个需要检讨的重大问题。Jake Peavy，
Maddux还有Young都被这个问题所困扰。
So one day Maddux told Young to forget about the runners, that it wasn't the
big deal everybody else was making it out to be. He told Young, "Only 17
percent of runners who steal second go on to score."
某日Maddux要Chris Young忘掉垒上的跑者，虽然大家都试着看住跑者，但是那不是一件
重要的事。他告诉Young说:"只有17%盗上二垒的跑者能够回到本垒得分。"
Maddux made another point: If opposing players have a low batting average
against a pitcher—as is the case with Young—then it makes sense to go after
the hitter and not worry about the runners.
Maddux提出了另一个观点: 如果对方的打者面对投手的打击率不高，就像打者面对Young
一样，那么当然不需要担心跑者，只需要专心面对打者。
The next time Young was interviewed about all those stolen bases, he said,
"It's like Greg says, only 17 percent of the runners who steal second go on
to score."
之后Chris Young在一次的访问中谈到被盗垒的问题，他表示:"就像Greg所说的，只有百
分之十七的跑者盗上二垒后能够回来得分。"
This 17 percent solution became something of a mantra in the second half of
the season for the Padres. Why? Because Maddux said so, that's why.
这个17%的解释在下半球季成为了教士队的深信不疑的圭臬，为什么呢?因为这是Maddux说
的，这就是原因。
Nobody bothered to check the stats; they just repeated Maddux's assertions.
When I was in San Diego last September, a savvy and wry reporter for the San
Diego Union-Tribune told me, "I've got a feeling Maddux just made up that 17
percent thing to take the heat off these guys. It gives them something to
say, and everybody just nods because it's Maddux."
没有人费心去证实这个统计，大家只是重复Maddux的说法。去年12月当我在圣地牙哥时，
一位San Diego Union-Tribune的记者告诉我:"我的感觉是Maddux只是为了替队友除去压
力，让大家有理由能解释，而随便捏造17%这件事。大家同意这个说法，只因为是Maddux
说的。"
Then a guy in San Diego who writes a blog by the name of SDPads1 decided to
check it out. He went through every 2007 boxscore and discovered that
slightly more than 40 percent of the base-stealers eventually scored against
the Padres.
在圣地牙哥，一个撰写SDPads1部落格的家伙决定去验证这个说法。他查看了2007年每一
场教士队的攻守数据，并且发现教士队的对手中，超过40%盗上二垒的跑者最后都能得到
分数。
He broke it down further and further—eliminating from the equation guys who
would have scored anyway—eventually whittling the number down closer to
Maddux's estimate. But the truth was, 17 percent wasn't exactly science.
他又进一步推翻了这个说法，扣掉那些不论如何一定会得分的跑者(例如下一棒打者击出
全垒打...等等)，这个数字降低了，较为接近Maddux的估计。但是真相是，17%这个说法
是没有科学根据的。
There was no arguing about one point, though: It was classic Maddux.
但是Maddux是伟大的，这一点是毫无疑问的。
原文
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3337786
SDPads1 Blog
http://sdpads1.wordpress.com/