达拉斯-台北获选(本周)未开航线中最高搜寻
根据Anna.Aero/Skyscanner 统计数据显示, Dallas-Taipei 是在所有尚未开航航线中,
拥有最多搜索人次 (65000 searches).
这显示了这条航线有其潜在丰富客源.
根据内文, DFW 都会区有高达75万人口是来自东南亚/东亚. 其中台湾裔人口有13,500人.
Anna.Aero/Skyscanner 建议华航或美国航空或可考量开辟这条航线.
星宇表示: 再等我6年.
长荣表示: 789快进来了,刚好上场.
华航表示: A359可能要再加些MTOW.
英文原文如下:
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https://goo.gl/vJh6W8
Dallas-Taipei is “Skyscanner Unserved Route of the Week” with 65,000
searches; China Airlines’ next US route?
We are pretty sure that there would be fireworks at both ends of this
potential route between Dallas and Taipei if a carrier like China Airlines or
American Airlines decides to start a service in the near future. With
Skyscanner’s search data now adding to the demographic and commercial links
between the two cities, we are sure that either carrier could make a success
of the currently unserved route.
With nearly 65,000 searches in the last year, a potential city pair from
Dallas to Taipei has been identified as this week’s “Skyscanner-anna.aero
Unserved Route of the Week” – a powerful analysis based on aspirational
data captured from the Skyscanner.net flight comparison site used by +60
million unique visitors per month. “Geographically, Taoyuan is one of the
best connecting locations for Southeast Asia traffic to the US, likewise, DFW
is Asia’s best gateway to Mexico and Latin America,” informs Su Yang,
Senior Airline Business Development Manager, Dallas/Fort Worth Airport. “21%
of Southeast Asia to US passengers are connecting via Taoyuan.”
Matt Williamson Skyscanner’s Commercial Executive says: “Dallas serves 30%
of the catchment (100 km around the airport) going to Taipei. With a better
service, such as a non-stop operation, the traffic could grow by 237%.”
anna.aero advises China Airlines or American Airlines to add this route
Skyscanner demand on this week’s unserved route shows a preference towards
the Taipei end of the city pair, with a 61/39 split, so on this basis we
looked at potential carriers at the Taiwanese origin first. Taipei is served
by two airports, with Songshan predominantly a domestic facility (46% share
of weekly seats), with regional departures to China (27%), Japan (23%) and
South Korea (4%) taking up the residual capacity. On this basis, a route from
Taipei’s primary intercontinental hub at Taoyuan has only been considered.
According to OAG schedules for the week commencing 2 March, the largest
carrier at Taoyuan is China Airlines (26% share of weekly seats). The airline
’s route network from its home hub presently consists of four US
destinations – namely Los Angeles (served double-daily), San Francisco (10),
New York JFK (four) and Honolulu (two). Clearly the US market is at the
forefront of the airline’s recent network development thinking, as Taoyuan’
s #1 carrier is launching a daily 777-300 service from the airport to Ontario
in California on 25 March. Bearing this in mind, a prospective sixth
transpacific service to Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) could be relatively high on
China Airlines’ network growth agenda for S19 onwards.
Behind China Airlines at Taoyuan is its arch rival EVA Air (23% share of
weekly seats). The #2 carrier presently offers nearly 125,000 weekly seats to
a non-stop network of 45 destinations. EVA Air’s US route map has more depth
than its nemesis, with six points served, including three duplicate sectors
to Los Angeles (flown three times daily), San Francisco (18) and New York JFK
(11), as well as operations to Houston Intercontinental, Seattle-Tacoma (both
daily) and Chicago O’Hare. One potential stumbling block on a new link
between DFW and Taoyuan is the lack of alliance synergies, which will provide
valuable feeder traffic at both ends of the route. With China Airlines in
SkyTeam, EVA Air in Star Alliance and American Airlines in oneworld, there
does appear to be an alliance mismatch. That said, EVA Air flies into
Seattle-Tacoma, which is a hub for the non-aligned Alaska Airlines and SkyTeam
’s Delta Air Lines, so a service into DFW should not be ruled out on the
grounds of this alliance issue.
American’s biggest hub to offer more Asian routes
Dallas is served by two airports, however with Love Field being a completely
domestic facility, a route from the Texan city’s primary intercontinental
hub at DFW has only been considered. Considering the US end of the route, DFW
’s leading capacity provider of its current 23 serving airlines is American,
which offers 86% of the airport’s weekly seats. The #1 carrier currently has
a robust schedule to Northeast Asia, operating 42 weekly rotations to Tokyo
Narita (14), Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul Incheon and Shanghai (all daily). The
oneworld airline is planning to have busy summer at DFW in terms of network
development, with nine domestic routes in the offing, as well as a new
European sector to Reykjavik/Keflavik, which begins in June. With all this
extra domestic feed coming into what is already American’s biggest operation
(nearly 650,000 weekly seats versus its #2 airport Charlotte Douglas’
490,000 seats), the airport needs fresh long-haul connections to help the
hub to continue its development. Perhaps with this compelling Skyscanner
data, Taipei will become the next Asian spoke in DFW’s hub.
“Total population of East Asia and Southeast Asia in the DFW Metro is around
750,000. Texas also ranks second in the US for Southeast Asian population,
and the DFW Metro led the growth,” states Yang. “In addition, the total
Taiwanese population in the DFW Metro is about 13,500.”
Late summer months the most-likely peak period for demand
When looking at the previous year of search data (graph above), the busiest
month (from Dallas) is January 2018, with 2,750 searches, while the quietest
month was March 2017 (1,500 searches). Given the anticipated booking profile
of the route – long-haul business – just over 50% of travellers on this
potential sector will want to book between seven to four months before
departure, so this would seem to indicate that the busiest months for traffic
will be between May and August, but contradicting that is the over-lapping
seasonal low being between July and October. Using the same methodology for
the Taipei end of the sector, the peak months for traffic will be between
August and November, with the low months being between January and April. “
There are 42 Texas-based companies with 102 subsidiaries in Taiwan,” informs
Yang. “On the flip side, there are 25 Taiwanese companies with 44
subsidiaries in Texas.”
According to OAG Traffic Analyser, because there is no direct service, the
top three connecting options chosen by those passengers who did book travel
between Dallas and Taipei in the last 12 months (year ending January 2018)
indicates that the majority of connecting travellers used San Francisco
(25%), Hong Kong (20%) and Narita (19.7%). A total of 19 different airports
were used as a transfer point between the two cities during the period
analysed.
Indeed, an O&D market that is not served by a non-stop flight will typically
display a low purchase rate and low traffic. In this instance Skyscanner’s
Travel Insight indicates a monthly average purchase rate of 7.2% for the
Dallas to Taipei route (see graph below). Therefore, if there was a Dallas to
Taipei route, and if bookings performed in line with the “Skyscanner market
average” for direct services at both airports (11%), the airline operating
this route could immediately expect an improved purchase rate of 53%, without
any increased marketing spend. However, with nearly 65,000 annual searches in
the last year, and with the sector being operated by an appropriately-sized
aircraft for the type of route, a three or four times weekly service should
be immediately viable for the airline choosing to start this potential city
pair.
“27% of Taipei/Hong Kong/Southeast Asia to US traffic originates or
terminates in the DFW catchment area, yet despite this fact, there is only
11% of Taipei/Hong Kong/Southeast Asia capacity allocated to our catchment.
DFW has full potential to gain additional capacity to the region, supported
by the fast-growing Asian population, strong DFW economic growth and ties
with Asia,” concludes Yang.