Re: [问题] 二战德军没攻下列宁格勒是不能还是不为

楼主: wl00669773 (Jerry shou)   2022-02-13 10:04:12
翻了一下The Naval War in the Baltic 1939–1945一书
作者有提到几个点
1.芬兰不想打列宁格勒
The Finnish forces had a superiority of two to one and they were able to
advance, while the Soviet forces were on a fast and chaotic retreat. The
German command wanted the Finnish forces to move quickly towards Leningrad,
so that they could meet the German forces as they advanced towards the city
from the south and west. Mannerheim declined. The Finnish government had no
desire to participate in an attack on Leningrad, and Finland also lacked the
necessary dive-bombers and heavy artillery to carry out such an operation. If
Finland had agreed, Leningrad would undoubtedly have fallen around the middle
of September.
德国指挥部希望芬兰迅速向列宁格勒发起进攻,以同时夹击该城市,但是Mannerheim(芬兰总司令)拒绝,芬兰无意参与,同时也缺乏必要的俯冲轰炸机及重型火炮来执行这样的行动。
作者认为,如果芬兰同意,列宁格勒会在9月中旬左右沦陷。
Mannerheim knew that Finland’s fate would be sealed if Germany lost the war
and he had helped them take Leningrad. At the time around the American entry
into the Second World War, diplomatic pressure, among other things, was put
on Finland by the United States, with the message that if Finland actively
participated in the capture of Leningrad or of the railway line between
Murmansk and Leningrad, then Finnish wishes would not be taken into account
after the war. Unlike Great Britain, the United States did not declare war on
Finland.
Mannerheim知道,如果芬兰攻击列宁格勒,就坐实了德国支持者的角色,一旦德国战败,芬兰就惨了,特别是美国在不断对芬兰施加外交压力。
(芬兰:美国,怕。)
2.苏联波罗的海舰队的火炮支援贯穿整个列宁格勒围城战,没有停过。
3.随着莫斯科的战斗陷入胶着,部分部队被调离列宁格勒战场。包括德国空军的VIII. Fliegerkorps
(事实上我一直认为德国空军比起德国陆军数量更不足以支撑东线战场的需求,特别是空军长时间承受西面盟军很巨大的空中压力,人手根本不够,但是还没有深入研究过)
作者在书中也非常重视、一直提及德国空中优势持续弱化的问题。
The Baltic Fleet air force had been gradually expanded. The aircraft were,
technologically speaking, not very sophisticated, and the pilots were not as
skilled as their German counterparts, but German air superiority was
gradually reduced in line with the German command being in need of offensive
and defensive aircraft on the other sections of the front. The air defences
in Leningrad had already in 1941 subjected the Luftwaffe to unacceptably high
losses.
4.德国东线战场北部的军事行动就算没有列宁格勒,也持续有由海上进行补给,甚至整个北半部战场的燃料供应几乎是由瑞典油轮运输来的。
Fuel supplies to the northern half of the Eastern Front were almost
exclusively transported by Swedish tankers – the Swedish government had
given its tacit approval to this traffic. The shipowners did incredibly well
out of it, and payment often came in oil, petrol and coal. There was also an
opportunity here to increase revenue, but the shipping transports cost the
lives of many Swedish sailors. Germany paid war reparations if the ships were
sunk because of acts of war; the standard marine insurance was no longer
valid, but the Germans were good payers, solely because of their need for
shipping tonnage.
我认为在整体战事来看,拿下通往内陆的铁路以使资源能从波罗的海送往莫斯科等内陆战场应该比列宁格勒的后勤价值要来的高,暴风行动的核心补给问题还是苏联内陆烂爆的地形。
列宁格勒的核心价值应该在苏联波罗的海舰队的完全消灭,不过单论此时对补给的影响,尽管波罗的海的海上运输时而受到苏联潜艇的攻击,但是数量不多,1942年,苏联潜艇约击沉45,000顿,共18艘船。
水面舰队基本上被水雷关厕所,最大的作用就是支援围城作战。
感觉最好还是别围列宁格勒,有海军支持的城市本来就比较难啃,德国又不是没有塔林来运送物资,只是路还是太烂阿。
总的来说将部队集中至更重要的战场对于大局我想会更有效益。
作者: PAULDAVID (oops)   2022-02-13 17:55:00
借串问个文章 以前本版有篇文说苏联某将领1941时是某大将的副手 被命令带寡兵作为前锋打开突破口 结果大将卖了他自带主力从另一处突围 而德军并不相信副将的寡兵是主力 跑去围大将导致副将所部成为全军唯一撤出的单位后来副将成长为苏军名将
作者: sheep531531 (Esperanto)   2022-02-13 19:55:00
楼上讲的应该是巴格拉米扬,后来变元帅
作者: chungrew (work hard, play hard)   2022-02-13 20:09:00
作者: PAULDAVID (oops)   2022-02-14 00:01:00
找到了 是他没错 #13GafUlA 骗他佯攻的老板是基尔波诺斯 有才 但怎么说 不太厚道 (歪串)
作者: saltlake (SaltLake)   2022-02-14 00:54:00
后来这位幸运元帅有个亲戚,叫做威利.杨。他吸取前人教训,也在一次命运的包围中成功突围。被誉为魔术师.杨
作者: fetoyeh (小叶)   2022-02-14 01:32:00
威利杨XDDD
作者: dickenst35 (阿煒)   2022-02-14 10:23:00
艾尔法西尔逃亡XD
作者: XperiaArcS (我不是索饭)   2022-02-14 13:55:00
还因此结识了后来的妻子
作者: PAULDAVID (oops)   2022-02-14 15:53:00
看来战前双方都不知道对方真实底细甚至不知自己极限在哪 马后炮来说德国机会在于精神方面打垮苏联政府 而后者士气溃了却奇蹟地没崩 接着前者的极限就被凸显出来了
楼主: wl00669773 (Jerry shou)   2022-02-14 17:27:00
谁知道呢,搞不好租借法案被卡住再拖个一年苏联就真的崩了也说不定
作者: chungrew (work hard, play hard)   2022-02-15 00:00:00
苏联接受英美的帮助的量非常大大到甚至超过苏联本身的生产量如果苏联没有能接受英美的援助苏联跟已经征服大半个欧洲的德国单挑谁赢谁输不好说过往苏联的宣传太过夸大苏联的精神意志力量他们没有强调一个事实:苏联接受的援助更多
作者: hedgehogs (刺猬)   2022-02-15 00:57:00
不知道俄罗斯的历史课本有没有把欧美援助写进去
作者: tomhawkreal (阿汤)   2022-02-15 05:52:00
苏联没有接受援助 东线可能形成僵局 于是开始和谈...
作者: PAULDAVID (oops)   2022-02-15 07:53:00
同意楼上 不过拖越长对纳粹越不利 所以还是算苏方得利?
作者: PeterHenson (寻找布宜诺斯艾利斯)   2022-02-15 13:43:00
其实是打定英美势必会对德国开战吧
作者: saltlake (SaltLake)   2022-02-15 21:42:00
楼上描述的策略和当年老蒋的想法一样
作者: kuma660224 (kuma660224)   2022-02-16 01:56:00
英国是本来就已经开战了 不一样援助苏联是英国本来就必然会做的事除非英国打算先向德国求和德苏突然开战 英国简直像民乐透绝对会希望德苏打得越拼命越好
作者: cht1234 (cht1234)   2022-02-16 13:54:00
楼上推文有人错乱了吧,英国拿到的美援助比苏联多好几倍
作者: chungrew (work hard, play hard)   2022-02-16 17:51:00
精确的说,我是说“苏联接受英美援助的总量”,在部分项目上多于“苏联国内的生产量”是跟苏联自己的生产能力比较,不是跟国外比以卡车为例,苏联把产能都拿去生产坦克,结果苏联生产的卡车总量甚至比不上美援卡车量查查租借法案,美国提供苏联35.6万辆卡车
作者: kuma660224 (kuma660224)   2022-02-16 18:46:00
那影响主要是逆推反攻能力离开本土后连轨道都不一样 卡车更重要德国攻势时要同时生产大量运输载具后期战线往本土退后守势 才能减少卡车加码战甲车拼产能.没有美援 苏联每次逆推要集气时间需更久他人力物力钢铁石油还是优势但反推进度应会大幅延后甚至不进柏林
作者: ggghalo2 (Fai-jai)   2022-02-16 21:06:00
国外援助我记得以前版上的讨论结果是刚开战至1942年的补给最重要

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