原文出自：http://0rz.tw/e24MR
Cooperstown Calling Contemporary Managers?
by Chris Jaffe
September 29, 2008
古柏镇的呼唤：当代教头
As readers to my columns here at THT may have noted, there are some topics in
which I take a considerable interest. One is the Hall of Fame, a topic of
numerous columns. Another is managers. Aside from some columns at THT, I have
a deal with McFarland Publishers to write a book on managers (rough draft
completed, final copy due on April Fool's Day).
我THT专栏的读者可能会注意到：我对某些主题特别感兴趣。其中之一是名人堂，
也是许多专栏的主题。另外还有总教练。除了THT的一些专栏，我也跟麦法兰出版社签
约要写本关于总教练的书。(大略的草稿已完成，最后版本会在四月愚人节出书)
So it occurred to me, why not take two interests of mine and put them
together in the hopes of achieving some peanut-butter-plus-chocolate-like
epiphany? Specifically, let’s look at contemporary managers and try to
determine which ones have a good chance for eventual immortality and who
still needs to work on his resume. Some of the answers are rather obvious;
still there are points of interest for many.
我灵光一闪：为何不把我的两个兴趣像花生奶油加巧克力那样结合在一起呢？
我们来分门别类地检视这些当代教头，试着决定谁有机会永垂不朽，以及谁需要砍
掉重练。有些答案很明显，不过仍有许多有趣的观点。
Let’s start with the ones most obviously Cooperstown-bound and work our way
down from there:
The following list might make it sound like there are a disproportionate
number of immortals amongst us, but that’s not the case. First, not all
hopefuls end up making the final cut.
我们从那些最可能进古柏镇的教练开始。以下名单中不朽传说的数量可能有些
不均衡，但事实不是这样。首先，不是有希望的最终就会被选上。
Second, and more importantly, Hall of Fame managers are a bit more common
than you might expect. Sure, there are “only” 19 men inducted as managers,
but those 19 combined to manage over 64,000 games. And that doesn’t include
guys currently managing who will go in, or retired managers waiting for the
VC to pick them. In the 20th century, about 20 percent of all games were
managed by future Hall of Famers.
第二，也是更重要的，名人堂教练比你想的更常见。当然，只有19个人是以总
教练身分被选上，但他们总共执教了超过64000场比赛。 这些还不包括现今可能会
进名人堂的教头，以及那些已经退休、等著VC选上他们的教头们。20世纪中，20％
的比赛是由未来的名人堂教头所执教。
The big three
These are, obviously, LaRussa, Cox and Torre. But you didn’t need me to tell
you that, did you?
三巨头
很显然地，是LaRussa、Cox、和Torre。应该不用我说吧？
Tony LaRussa: Our first no-brainer.
Tony LaRussa：无疑的第一名
As both the youngest and winningest member of the trio, LaRussa has a chance
to do something long thought impossible: pass John McGraw on the all-time
wins list. He’ll end the year about 300 wins shy. That’s four years of
managing. Please note he’s four years younger than Cox and Torre.
身为三人中最年轻以及最常胜的教头，LaRussa有机会打破不可能的纪录：生涯
胜场数超越John McGraw。今年结束他还少300胜，可能必须执教四年才能达到。请
注意他还比Cox和Torre年轻四岁。
(译注：LaRussa执教生涯2460胜，John McGraw2763胜)
His secret, aside from being really good at what he does, is that he’s
always managing somewhere. Since filling out his first MLB lineup in August
1979, he’s been on the job somewhere the entire time, save for a
two-and-a-half-week stretch in the summer of 1986. Only Connie Mack and
McGraw can claim such perpetual employment in this topsy-turvy occupation.
他的秘诀：除了本职学能一级棒之外，他总是保持执教生涯。自从1979年8月填
了第一张MLB攻守名单后，他总是能在某个地方找到工作。除了1986年的夏天，他花
了两个半礼拜伸了个懒腰。在这个乱七八糟的行业里，只有Connie Mack和McGraw能
维持这样不间断的出席率。
Oh yeah—he also has a dozen postseason appearances, claimed five pennants,
and won a pair of World Series titles. Those titles came with two different
franchises. Only three other men—Bucky Harris, Bill McKechnie, and Sparky
Anderson—have won it all with multiple franchises. All are in Cooperstown.
是的，他也有成打的季后赛经验。五次拿下联盟冠军，更有两枚世界大赛冠军
戒。这两次冠军是在不同的球队中所拿到。只有三个人在不同的球队中拿到冠军：
Bucky Harris、Bill McKechnie、和Sparky Anderson，而他们都进了名人堂。
连结：LaRussa的生涯纪录 http://0rz.tw/ed4Sd
Bobby Cox
Bobby Cox: Cox's .557 career win-loss record is the best among the Big Three.
His teams have made the postseason in a majority of his seasons. That’s
pretty impressive for someone who lasts 10 years on the job, let alone 25+.
Even with Atlanta’s October disappointments, he still has one world
championship and five pennants.
Cox的.557生涯胜率是三巨头中最好的。他的球队也是季后赛中的常胜军(译注：
亚特兰大勇士队1991-2005)。执教10年就够让人印象深刻，更不用说25年。就算亚特
兰大的十月常令人失望，他仍赢得过一次世界大赛冠军，与五次联盟冠军。
He has 14 consecutive postseason appearances, and he likely would've had 15.
(The Braves were on target for the wild card in 1994.) Sure, it's easier to
make the playoffs now than ever before, but how many managers have even had
15 straight winning seasons? Only Cox, Sparky Anderson, Joe McCarthy, Earl
Weaver and Al Lopez. Obviously, all are in Cooperstown. Cox's worst winning
percentage in that stretch was .543—something only McCarthy can top (though
Weaver ties).
他有14次挺进季后赛，应该说是连续15次。(勇士队1994是以外卡资格进季后)
当然，现在要进季后赛比以前容易了，但有几个教头能拥有15个连续胜利的球季？
只有Cox、Sparky Anderson、Joe McCarthy、Earl Weaver与Al Lopez。 很显然，
他们都进了古柏镇。Cox在这几年中最糟的胜率是.543，只有McCarthy胜过他。
(Weaver跟他平手)
连结：Cox的生涯纪录http://0rz.tw/064Qk
Joe Torre：九头驴
Joe Torre: To date, only three men in baseball history have managed in five
different decades: Connie Mack, John McGraw and Leo Durocher. The current
trio has a chance to double total, should they all stick around another two
years. They may not as they are all getting up there in years, but it’s
amazing such a doubling might even be possible.
以时间来看，棒球历史中只有三个人曾在五个不同的十年中执教(80年代、90年代
这样算一个十年)：Connie Mack、John McGraw、与Leo Durocher。如果三巨头都再撑
两年，将可以让这个数字加倍。 虽然他们都上了年纪，但能让这数字加倍依旧让人惊
奇。
What’s more impressive, there’s no one else out there who looks to be in
position to join the five-decade club. To join, you need three things going
for you. First, you have to be young when you start managing. LaRussa, Cox,
and Torre were all in their mid-30s when they began.
更令人印象深刻的，是除了这三个老头之外，没人有机会可以加入"五个十年"
俱乐部。想加入的话，必须有三个条件：第一，你必须从年轻时就开始当教头。像
LaRussa、Cox、和Torre都是在30几岁就当总教练了。
Second—and most obviously—you have to last a long time. Third, you have to
start your career at the end of a decade. That’s the case for everyone
except Mack, and he’s a special case, given that he was part owner of the A’
s.
第二：显然地，你要能撑很久。第三：你必须从一个十年的尾端开始职业生涯。
每个人都是如此，只有Mack是个特例，他也是运动家队的拥有者之一。
That combo doesn’t happen for many others. There are only two managers who
began in the 1980s still out there: Lou Piniella and Jim Leyland. Can you
really see either of them hanging around until 2020? Piniella has already
said this is the last job he’ll ever have.
这种组合可不是随便出现的。只有两个80年代开始生涯的教头还有机会：Lou
Piniella与Jim Leyland。但你还能在2020年看到他们其中之一吗？Piniella已经
说了这会是他的最后一个工作。
Dusty Baker would have to manage until he’s 81, as would Mike Scioscia. Only
Connie Mack has managed at that age. Aside from him, baseball's oldest
manager was Casey Stengel, at age 75. Ron Gardenhire would have to last to
age 82. Cito Gaston and Ozzie Guillen have to make it to age 76. Bruce Bochy
has to “only” last 75, but I don’t see him having the stature to last as
long as Stengel.
Dusty Baker必须持续执教到81岁，Mike Scioscia也是。只有Connie Mack曾经
执教到这么老。除了他之外，棒球界最老的总教练是Casey Stengel，撑到了75岁。
Ron Gardenhire必须撑到81岁，Cito Gaston和Ozzie Guillen则必须撑到76岁。Bru-
ce Bochy "只要" 执教到75岁就够了，但我不觉得他的身体能让他撑得像Stengel一
样久。
The only man it’s feasible for is Terry Francona. He was hired at age 38 in
1997. He’ll be 71 in 2030. If he doesn’t get it, we’re stuck waiting to
see if recent hires like Manny Acta and Joe Girardi can make it. Enjoy seeing
if any of the Big Three make it to 2010—that might be the last time in your
lifetime anyone manages in five decades.
唯一可能的人选是Terry Francona。他1997年38岁的时候被聘请，2030年时他将
活到71岁。如果他无法达成，我们就只能期待最近新任的教头：像Manny Acta和 Joe
Girardi。拭目以待2010年三巨头的表现吧！这可能是你一生最后一次看到"五个十年"
俱乐部的老教头了。
连结：Torre的生涯纪录http://0rz.tw/801by
四小龙
The Little Four
Some others have pretty good cases, even though they’re all missing a bit.
有些人表现也粉不错，虽然都差了那么一点。
Jim Leyland
Jim Leyland: He is on the borderline, but probably on the wrong side of the
border. He’s got a bunch of impressive credentials, but there’s always a “
but” somewhere in them.
他是站在边缘的男人，但似乎站错边了。他有一箩筐令人印象深刻的丰功伟业，
但其中总是有瑕疵在里面。
He won pennants with two teams: Florida and Detroit. He just missed winning a
pennant with a third squad, the Pirates. That would have ensured
enshrinement, but it was not to be. He won three straight division titles
with Pittsburgh, but they never got over the hump.
他在两个球队拿过联盟冠军：佛罗里达和底特律。第三个球队也只差一点：匹兹
堡海盗。乍看之下冠军只是囊中物，但其实不是这么回事。他曾率领海盗队连续三季
拿下分区冠军，但始终无法翻越最后的障碍。
He won it all in Florida, but when people think of that team they recall the
dismantling more than the championship. If they don’t think of the
dismantling, they recollect the free agency bonanza general manager Dave
Dombrowski harvested. Leyland seems incidental to his most prestigious
accomplishment in popular memory.
他在佛罗里达大获全胜(1997年WS)。但当人们提起马大鱼时，球队重组比冠军更
令人有印象。就算不想到重组，他们只会想起GM Dave Dombrowski在FA市场的丰收。
Leyland在大众的记忆中，最光辉灿烂的一年似乎也只是个旁观者。
Detroit won a pennant, but they lost the Series to a far worse team. Then
they proceeded to underachieve in subsequent seasons. Also, this was the
second straight time Leyland worked with Dombrowski. Cooperstown might focus
more on the general manager than the manager.
底特律老虎曾拿下联盟冠军，却在世界大赛败给远逊于它的球队(圣路易红雀)。
在接下来的球季中，他们也无法发挥该有的实力。 而且，这是Leyland第二次与Dom-
browski合作。古柏镇可能会聚焦在这位GM，而不是总教头。
If Pittsburgh had won a pennant, or if Detroit had won the 2006 Series, or if
he hadn’t been overshadowed in Florida, Leyland would have an excellent
shot. Instead, he runs the risk of being a managerial Jim Kaat—impressive
career accomplishments without the necessary “wow!” factor.
如果海盗队得过联盟冠军，或老虎队拿下2006年世界大赛，或在马林鱼的时候他
的光芒没有被掩盖，Leyland就达成了完美一击。 事实上，他成了教练版的Jim Kaat
－令人印象深刻的生涯成就，却缺少了令人大喊"Wow！"的要素。
His two pennants would tie him for the fewest of any Cooperstown immortal. He
’s 26th in career wins, but only one post-1900 Hall of Famer ranks lower
than that. (All three pre-1900 guys—Ned Hanlon, Frank Selee, and Harry Wright
—are lower but their schedule was shorter.)
他的两次联盟冠军，让他勉强达到成为古柏镇不朽传奇的标准。他的生涯胜场排
名26，但1900之后只有一位名人堂教头比他还低(1900之前有三位：Ned Hanlon、Fra-
nk Selee、和Harry Wright，不过他们的执教生涯较短。)
He has more wins than 2008 Cooperstown inductee Billy Southworth, but
Southworth had to wait almost 60 years for induction. More importantly, he
had one of the best winning percentages of all time. Currently, Leyland has a
losing record for his career. That kills him. Only managers with really long
careers, like Mack and Harris, get in with losing records.
他的胜场数比2008年进古柏镇的Billy Southworth还多，但Southworth等了几乎
60年。更重要的，是Southworth有着有史以来最高的生涯胜率(.597)。 现在Leyland
几乎一败涂地，这会毁了他。只有生涯很长的总教练，像Mack和Harris，带着曾经惨
败的纪录进名人堂。
连结：Leyland的生涯纪录http://0rz.tw/f14P1
Lou Piniella
Lou Piniella: Want to know if he’ll make it to Cooperstown? Watch what
happens this October. If the Cubs win the pennant, he’s a lock. If they don’
t, he has no chance. He’s the anti-Leyland. Whereas the current Tiger
skipper has a series of “buts” dragging down his case, Piniella has a
series of “buts” uplifting his.
想知道他是否进的了名人堂吗？看看今年十月的战况吧！如果小熊队赢得联盟冠
军，他就稳了。如果小熊队失败，他也没机会。他刚好和Leyland相反。 如果说现任
的老虎教头是被一连串的"but"拖垮，Piniella就是被一连串的"but"捧上了天。
Piniella has only won one world title—in fact he only has one pennant—but
that was one of the greatest upsets in sports history. Those 1990 Reds were
supposed to be doomed against the mighty A’s juggernaut.
Piniella只赢过一次世界大赛冠军，事实上也是他唯一一次联盟冠军。但那是运
动史上一次伟大的翻盘！1990年的红人队，对上当时强大的运动家，应该被理所当然
地碾过去才对。
He never took the Mariners to the postseason, but they did win 116 wins in a
season for him once. Tying the single-season win record is a big mark for
him, even when you factor in their postseason loss in the ALCS. Besides, the
Mariners never had a winning season before he arrived. He took them to the
postseason four times, still their only trips in franchise history.
他从未带领水手队赢得季后赛，但他们的确曾为他拿了116胜。单季胜场的纪录是
他的一大卖点，就算你只注意他们在美联冠军赛的惨败也一样。 更何况，水手队在他
来之前根本没有胜利的球季。 是Piniella带领他们四度闯进季后赛，也是他们队史中
仅有的季后赛之旅。
If Piniella takes the Cubs to the promised land, that continues the theme.
Sure others have won pennants with multiple teams without gaining
enshrinement as managers—Alvin Dark, Yogi Berra, Pat Moran—but this wouldn’
t just be a second team. It’s the doomed, damned and deplorable Cubs.
如果Piniella带领小熊队进入应许之地，传奇就将延续。当然也有人带领不同的
球队拿下联盟冠军－像Alvin Dark、Yogi Berra、Pat Moran...... 但这显然有很大
的不同。这可是满目疮痍、被诅咒的悲惨小熊队啊！
A title, a pennant, and some playoff appearances normally don’t make
Cooperstown call, but a huge upset, 116 wins, and a breaker of Western
civilization's oldest curse combined would.
WS、联盟冠军、和一些季后赛表现不能让他进古柏镇。但重大的翻盘、116胜、
以及西方世界古老诅咒的打破者，绝对办得到！
连结：Piniella的生涯纪录http://0rz.tw/f74Lq
Dusty Baker
Dusty Baker: Stop and think how good his case looked heading into the eighth
inning of Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS. Baker was on the verge of capturing his
second straight NL pennant. These performances came with different teams,
highlighting the case for his admirers. He had a terrific career win-loss
record and had already won three Manager of the Year Awards.
讨论Baker的好之前，停止去想2003年国联冠军赛Game 6的第八局发生啥事。
(译注：马林鱼海灌了小熊队8分) Baker只差一点就连续拿下两届国联冠军。这两
年他还待在不同队，难怪会如此受到瞩目了。 他有惊人的生涯胜败纪录，而且已
经拿了三座年度总教练奖。
He’d only been on the job a little over a decade, but that’s as promising a
start as you can have. Winning pennants with two teams is nice, but as noted
above, a Cubs pennant is an extra special feather to have in a manager’s
cap. It would be doubly special to earn in your first year there, as Baker
threatened to do in 2003.
他只当了十几年教头，但这是一个大好前途的开始。在不同的两支球队赢得
联盟冠军很赞，而且是小熊队，简直像在教练头上插一根最特别的羽毛。如果在
你来到球队的第一年得到，更是双倍的惊喜，可惜Baker在2003年只留下残念。
Now stop and think where his case stands today. The Cubs, of course, blew
that game and didn’t win the pennant. Each year the team did worse than the
year before. Now he’s in Cincinnati, and the team’s floundering along with
him just like it did without him. His reputation has gone from first-rate to
journeyman, and he only has one pennant. And no one cares about Manager of
the Year Awards.
停下来想想他到底有何地位。小熊队，如你所知，搞砸了那场比赛而且最终没
赢得国联冠军。这支球队一直在每下愈况。现在他来到辛辛那提红人，跟他还没来
之前一样，也是在困境中挣扎。他的评价从第一变成流浪教头，而且他只有一个联
盟冠军。根本没人鸟年度总教练奖。
He needs something special to get back on track. Leyland may already have
enough credentials, and Piniella just needs one good October, but Baker needs
something a bit more sustained than that. Otherwise he’ll join Pat Moran and
Charlie Grimm in the leftover pile.
他需要一些特别的来重新上轨道。Leyland已经有足够的战绩，Piniella只需要
一个完美的十月，但Baker还差得远了。不然他也只能加入Pat Moran和Charlie Gri-
mm的遗珠集团了。
连结：Baker的生涯纪录http://0rz.tw/854Mk
Terry Francona
Terry Francona: He has two world titles, which is a big help on any manager’
s resume. However, he’s as invisible as a manager can be with two world
titles.
他有两个世界大赛冠军，对任何教头而言都是很大的帮助。然而，他在这两个
冠军中几乎是无形的。
The Red Sox's success has primarily been seen as a testament to the team’s
money, Theo Epstein’s decisions, and the character of veterans like Curt
Schilling. I don’t hear people speaking ill of Francona, but he gets lost in
the shuffle, a cog in Kid Theo’s machine. It doesn’t help him that he had
his share of critics in his only other job, in Philly.
红袜的成功主要被视为球队投资的兑现。Theo Epstein的决策，以及老将的发
挥都很有帮助，像Curt Schilling。我没听过有人讲Francona的坏话，但他在改组
中迷失了，只是属于Theo的机器中的一个齿轮。他在费城人的执教经验备受批评，
也同样帮不了他。
Despite that, he’s a lot closer than one might think. If the Red Sox win a
third world title, he suddenly has a very good chance to go in. Here are the
people who have won at least three World Series titles: John McGraw, Connie
Mack, Miller Huggins, Joe McCarthy, Casey Stengel and Walter Alston. All are
immortals.
即使如此，他还是比大家想的更接近名人堂。如果红袜拿下第三次世界大赛冠
军，他就很有机会了。这些是至少拿了三次世界大赛冠军的教头：John McGraw、
Connie Mack、Miller Huggins、Joe McCarthy、Casey Stengel、Walter Alston。
全都是不朽的传奇人物。
If he doesn’t win three, he’s stuck with the Danny Murtaughs and Ralph
Houks. Not bad managers, but not in that most exclusive of clubs. If he gets
a third, not only will he have a nice “wow” factor on his resume, but he’
ll almost certainly be able to last a long time on the job with one team or
another. As already noted, he was very young when he started, so he can rack
up some impressive career wins to go with those titles.
Win, and he’s in.
如果他没拿冠军，他就得跟Danny Murtaughs和Ralgh Houks为伍。不错的教头，
但并不是最独一无二的。如果他拿冠军，不只有了完美的"wow"要素，而且他就能继
续延长职业生涯。 像之前提到的，他开始执教时非常年轻，还能累积一些令人印象
深刻的胜利。
获胜吧，然后进名人堂！
连结：Francona的生涯纪录http://0rz.tw/814Ph
还太嫩了
Too soon to tell
Mike Scioscia
Mike Scioscia: So far, so good. He already has a title, and he’s gearing up
for his fifth playoff appearance in nine years. Also, he’s always been given
a lot of credit for the Angels’ success over the years. He’ll need to win
at least one more pennant, but he’s off to the best start of everyone who
began the job this millennium.
目前为止还不错。他已经拿过WS，而且正为了九年来第五次进季后赛加足马力。
天使队这几年的成功为他加分不少。他至少需要再拿下一个联盟冠军，但他是21世纪
开始执教生涯的人中最棒的。
Ron Gardenhire
Ron Gardenhire: I think he’s a great manager, but right now his resume looks
a little thin. As of this writing (Saturday), he's angling for his fifth
postseason appearance, but Minnesota’s record in the playoffs has been
horrible. They’ve lost in the ALDS thrice and were easily dismissed in their
only trip to the ALCS. The general baseball public doesn’t pay much
attention to him, also hurting his odds.
我想他是个不错的教头，但他现在的资历看起来有点薄弱。周六写这篇文章时，
他正渴求着第五次季后赛，但明尼苏达双城季后赛的纪录简直糟透了。他们三度错失
美联冠军赛，唯一打进冠军赛的一次却被轻易横扫。现今棒球界并没有给他太多注目
，这也剥夺了他的优势。
It’s still early in his career, so he has plenty of time to garner the big
accomplishments, but there is a danger in repeated October disappointments.
Windows don’t remain open forever, and a lack of postseason glory is fatal
to a Cooperstown candidacy. Not only do all of the Hall of Fame managers have
multiple pennants, but you need something special to put you over if you have
only two.
他的职业生涯刚起步，还有许多时间获取更大的成就。但持续令人失望的十月
无疑是一大危机。门户并不总是敞开，缺少季后赛的光环更是名人堂候选人的致命
伤。不仅所有名人堂教头都有好几个联盟冠军，而且你需要一些特殊表现来让你过
关。
Ozzie Guillen
Ozzie Guillen: Way too early to tell. He’s won it all, his teams
consistently exceed expectation, and he gets lots of credit for that.
提到他还太早。他曾大获全胜，他的球队也持续超越大家的期待，这替他加了
不少分数。
It’s only five years though. A lot of men, such as Charlie Dressen, have
looked great for a few years. Guillen needs to keep it up. The danger I see
for him is that he might burn out if he gets caught with an under-talented
squad for a few years in a row. That’s just my own hunch. He’s done a great
job so far.
仅仅才五年。有些教头像Charlie Dressen，一开始看起来也是不错。Guillen
必须把表现维持在高档。我觉得他的危机，在于拥有一支未充分发挥天分的球队。
这只是我的猜测，他目前的表现好极了。
其它
Others
Cito Gaston
Cito Gaston: He’ll turn 65 next year. At best he’ll only have a little more
than 1,100 wins by his 70th birthday. Like Francona, he needs a third title,
but his odds are much worse. It doesn’t look good.
他明年就65岁了。在他的70岁生日时，最好的情况是有1100场出头的胜场。就像
Francona，他需要第三次世界大赛冠军。但他的机会小多了，看起来很不妙。
Bruce Bochy
Bruce Bochy: He’s a long shot, but not quite a hopeless case. Bochy has over
1,000 wins and a pennant and is only in his early 50s. If he can last another
10 years in the game with one team or another and latch onto a solid
franchise, his odds suddenly look much better. He’d have around 2,000 wins
(everyone over 1,650 is either currently working or in Cooperstown), and
could have multiple pennants.
他的生涯很长，但还不至于绝望。Bochy有超过1000胜，与一个联盟冠军，而且
才50出头而已。如果他能再撑十年，并有稳定的表现，他的机会就高多了。 他必须
有2000胜左右(超过1650胜的人都在古柏镇里，或呼声很高)，而且多几个联盟冠军。
If he lasts a ways longer and wins a World Series, he suddenly has a better
case than Jim Leyland currently has. Then again, do you realize how many guys
you can say that about? Yeah, if Jimmy Dykes had been hired by the Dodgers or
Yankees instead of the Philadelphia A's or Baltimore Orioles, maybe he
could've gotten in. When you need everything to break perfectly, you're a
damn big long shot.
如果他撑下去甚至赢得世界大赛冠军，他就比Jim Leyland有更好的机会。但你
知道有多少人也有同样的情况吗？如果Jimmy Dykes是被道奇或洋基雇用，而不是费
城人或巴尔的摩金莺，也许他早进名人堂了。 当需要一切完美配合时，那只是不切
实际的远景罢了。
Eric Wedge
Eric Wedge: This is a real screwball one, but his odds are better than you
think (though still not good).
他是个怪胎，但他的机会比你想得要高(虽然还是很糟)。
Here’s the key point on his favor: he was barely 35 years old when he
started managing the Indians, making him the youngest person to fill out the
lineup card in the last 25 years. He has nearly 500 wins, but he’s still
younger today than Mike Scioscia was upon his hiring as Angels manager.
这是他的关键优势：当他开始执教印地安人队时，只有35岁。可能是25年来，
填攻守名单的教头中最年轻的。他有将近500胜，而且比Mike Scioscia执教天使队
时还年轻。
If he’s respected enough to last a while, he’ll pick up some very
impressive career counting stats. If he lands some playoff teams in the
process, he’ll have a legitimate Hall of Fame case.
如果他能持续被尊重，他会得到一些不错的生涯数据。如果他能带领球队进
季后赛，进名人堂的合理性就大增了。
I don’t see it happened, though. I don’t follow the Indians too closely,
but that team usually does a little worse than expectations, which I take as
a knock on the manager. An early start puts him in a good position, but he’s
got to make the most of his opportunities. To date, he’s failed badly at
that.
虽然目前看不出迹象。我并未相当注意印地安人，但这球队似乎总是比期待
中糟一点，我觉得这也是给总教练的一记重击。很早出发是他的优势，但他必须
更加把握每一次机会。现在他做得满失败的。
As for the rest of the game's managers, they either have so little experience
or such bad odds it isn't worth discussing their chances.
至于其他的教头，不是经验不足，就是机会小到实在不值得讨论。