http://tinyurl.com/3skrek
By Marc Hulet
There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June
Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of
upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have
been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in
2000 and ending in 2004. Previously, I looked at the drafts from 2000 to 2002.
I’m not sure exactly what to make of the first 10 picks of the 2003 draft, to
be honest. Delmon Young is loaded with potential but his lack of plate
discipline is really holding him back. Rickie Weeks, quite frankly, has been a
disappointment. Nick Markakis is possibly the best pick from the Top 10, and
he’s an All-Star, but not a superstar. There were still a lot of misses:
Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, Ryan Harvey, and possibly Chris Lubanski.
The first 10 picks broke down like this:
1. Tampa Bay Delmon Young, OF California high school
2. Milwaukee Rickie Weeks, 2B Southern University
3. Detroit Kyle Sleeth, RHP Wake Forest University
4. San Diego Tim Stauffer, RHP University of Richmond
5. Kansas City Chris Lubanski, OF Pennsylvania high school
6. Chicago (NL) Ryan Harvey, OF Florida high school
7. Baltimore Nick Markakis, OF Georgia high school
8. Pittsburgh Paul Maholm, LHP Mississippi State University
9. Texas John Danks, LHP Texas high school
10. Colorado Ian Stewart, 3B California high school
The first 10 picks don’t look too bad, but we still only have two potential
All-Stars (Young and Markakis), maybe three if Weeks suddenly figures things
out, and two solid, but unspectacular, major leaguers in Maholm and Danks. You
still have four or five players that may never receive more than a cup of
coffee in the majors.
But how was the remainder of the first round? Well the Jays finally made a nice
first round pick under J.P. Ricciardi and nabbed Aaron Hill, perhaps one of the
top three second basemen in the American League. The Mets got Lastings Milledge
(now with Washington), for good or bad. Arizona received Conor Jackson and
Carlos Quentin (now with the White Sox), Montreal drafted closer Chad Cordero,
St. Louis found Daric Barton (now with Oakland) and the Dodgers stole Chad
Billingsley with the 24th pick.
The supplemental first round saw Cleveland take the oft-injured Adam Miller,
Boston took the under-appreciated Matt Murton and Seattle found Adam Jones, who
helped them secure the services of Erik Bedard.
Let’s take another look at the Top 10:
球迷们总是认为首轮选秀闭着眼睛都能选到大物。我会在这一系列的文章回顾2000到2004
年的前十顺位选秀。这篇是2003年。至于2000-2002年的回顾已经写好了。
我不太确定2003年的最佳选秀球员是谁。Delmon Young充满天份但选球太糟。Rickie
Weeks目前的表现有些让人失望。Nick Markakis可能是这年的最佳选秀，但他只会是全明
星而不是超级巨星。剩下的则是一些假货：Kyle Sleeth、Tim Stauffer、Ryan Harvey、
Chris Lubanski。
前十顺位选的不算糟，但真正有全明星潜力的只有两位(Young、Markakis)，如果Weeks打
出来的话可以算三位。两个不突出但会有不错成绩的：Maholm、Danks。还剩下五位大概是
只能来打中职的。
至于其他的首轮呢？蓝鸟队的Aaron Hill，可能是美联三位最佳的二垒手之一。大都会的
Lastings Milledge ，目前前途未卜。响尾蛇的Conor Jackson和Carlos Quentin。博览会
的Chad Cordero。红雀的Daric Barton 。道奇的Chad Billingsley。
三明治选秀：印地安人拿到了容易受伤的Adam Miller。红袜获得被低估的Matt Murton。
水手队挑到Adam Jones，后来被拿去换Erik Bedard。
现在就来看看前十顺位选秀吧：
Delmon Young
The Rays had the enviable task of picking the No. 1 player in the draft in 2003
, and if the last five years have shown us anything, they made a pretty good
decision as Young has out-performed everyone else in the Top 10 not named
Markakis.
Baseball America spoke with the Rays organization after it took Young first
overall:
“We thought he was one of the best players long before the draft,” Devil
Rays general manager Chuck LaMar said. “But we’re in a critical
situation, having the No. 1 pick in the country and not winning as many
games as we hoped. We made sure we asked all the questions to make sure we
got the best player in the country. He was awfully high on our list for a
while. We went through everything to see if anyone could unseat Delmon,
and the answer was no.”
“He is one of the finest power hitters our scouts have evaluated, not only
this year but over the years,” Devil Rays scouting director Cam Bonifay
said. “He’s the kind of guy that you don’t get out of your seat and go
buy a hot dog when you know he’s coming to the plate. You want to stay
there and watch him hit. He lights up your eyes.”
The Rays also used Young to secure what the organization needed most –
pitching talent. He was dispatched to Minnesota this past off-season for right
-hander Matt Garza, and infielder Jason Bartlett, who adds stability to the
infield.
It is not set in stone that Young is going to become a superstar, but the tools
are evident. He simply needs time to mature as a hitter and learn the value of
patience and waiting for “his pitch.” It’s easy to forget that Young is
still only 22 years old. Last season he batted “only” .288/.316/.419 but he
drove in 93 batters in a year that he turned 21. He likely has a very bright
future.
2003年的第一顺位对阳光队来说是个甜蜜的烦恼。接下来的五年证明了他们做了相当好的
决定：Young胜过的前十顺位中除了Markakis之外的每一人。
在阳光队选了Young之后，Baseball America和阳光队的管理阶层有段访问：
"我们认为他是选秀会中的最佳球员"阳光队GM Chuck LaMar这么说"我们要确定我们选
到了最佳的球员，而Delmon在每个地方都胜过其他竞争对手"
"他在这几年来都是球探们认为长打能力最好的家伙"球探长Cam Bonifay说"他就是那
种能吸引住全场目光的天生打者"
阳光队后来用Young换来球队最需要的 - 投手Matt Garza和内野手Jason Bartlett。
Young会不会成为巨星现在还未可知，但他有那个天份。他现在需要的是成长的时间并且学
会选球。大家很容易忽略他现在才22岁。上季他"只"打出.288/.316/.419但有93分打点。
看来他的前途一片光明。
Rickie Weeks
Weeks was on a lot of teams’ draft boards as the No. 1 player in the nation,
narrowly edging Young. In its scouting profile for Weeks before the draft,
Baseball America stated:
Weeks has the best tools and is the purest hitter in college baseball. His
hands are so quick that he generates amazing bat speed and can turn around
any inside fastball.
Those quick wrists are still there but injuries to that very area slowed Weeks
early in his pro career. Seemingly healthy now, though, Weeks has yet to turn
his potential into reality. Weeks arrived in the majors in 2003, less than half
a season after being drafted. However, he remained in the minors (Double-A) for
all of 2004. He resurfaced halfway through the 2005 season but batted only
.239/.333/.394, a far cry from his .400 college averages. Although he missed
time with injuries in 2006, Weeks spent the entire season as Milwaukee’s
second baseman and hit a respectable .279/.363/.404, but you expect more from
the second overall pick. Weeks showed more patience at the plate in 2007
(.374 OBP), as well as more power (.433 SLG), but he continued to have issues
with his batting average (.235 AVG). After playing in the majors for parts of
four seasons, Weeks entered 2008 with a batting average a hair under .250.
He’ll be playing this season at the age of 25 so there is still time for him
to improve, but it’s probably safe to say the Brewers expected a lot more a
lot sooner from the second overall pick.
Weeks是许多队心目中的状元郎。Baseball America在选秀前对Weeks的一段描述：
Weeks有大学生中最佳的天份并且是最好的打者。他有不可思议的挥棒速度，能轻松攻
击内角速球
他的手腕还是很好，但却不断受伤。即使现在看来是健康了，Weeks也还没把天份转为成绩
。在选秀当年Weeks就直升大联盟，然而，隔年他又回到2A。2005年回到大联盟但只打出
.239/.333/.394，和大学时期的四割男相差甚远。2006年打出.279/.363/.404，不错的成
绩，但对榜眼来说还有点太少。2007年Weeks的选球和长打又更好了，但打击率还是问题。
今年Weeks的打击率依旧低于.250。他现在还有进步的空间，但可以说他现在的表现和当初
酿酒人期待的相差甚远。
Kyle Sleeth
If you read Baseball America’s pre-draft profile on Sleeth, there were warning
signs:
“Sleeth's pitching has dropped off slightly since his NCAA record-tying
26-game winning streak ended, but he still has a long track record of
success with Wake Forest and Team USA. Not to mention three nasty pitches,
a 93-94 mph fastball with life, a low-80s slider that has improved this
year and a power curveball… His delivery can get out of whack, and he'll
sometimes throw across his body or leave the ball up in the strike zone.
Consistency is all that stands between him becoming a frontline starter in
the major leagues."
Well, Sleeth never found that consistency and he retired this spring. To be
fair, he was beset by injuries from almost the moment he signed his pro
contract with Detroit. He began his career in High-A ball in 2004 and pitched
well: a 3.31 ERA, 7.94 H/9, 2.38 BB/9 and 8.60 K/9. Sleeth was promoted to
Double-A Erie midway through the season and struggled mightily. He posted an
ERA of 6.30 with 10.46 H/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 6.41 K/9. He then missed all of 2005
after Tommy John surgery.
The surgery is a lot more successful than it used to be, but it’s not perfect
and Sleeth was one of those players that never recovered his velocity. While
rehabbing in 2006, he pitched OK in the Gulf Coast League but struggled when he
was promoted to High-A ball. He walked 21 batters in 19.2 innings and posted an
ERA of 11.90. The next year was more of the same as he walked 40 in 77.2
innings between A-ball and Double-A. His ERA was well over 8.00. After a tough
spring in 2008, Sleeth hung up his spikes.
Kyle Sleeth的失败似乎是早有预兆。Baseball America的球探报告说：
"在26连胜结束后，Sleeth的投球似乎是有些退步，但他在大学和国家队曾有过一连串
的成功。上好的速球、滑球和曲球...他的投球机制不太稳定并且有时候球会压不下来
。稳定性是他现在最大的问题"
嗯，Sleeth从来没有稳定过并且在今年退休了。自从他签约的那一刻起就为伤痛所困。
2004年他在A+起步顺利，但升上2A后有些挣扎。隔年他就动了Tommy John手术。
Sleeth是那些手术后球速就不见的球员之一。手术后他在A+和2A都投不好。今年春天，
Sleeth终于决定高挂球鞋。
Tim Stauffer
Stauffer was another talented lefty whose career was derailed by injuries.
Interestingly, though, he was injured in college. After the Padres selected him
fourth overall, he came clean and told them about the injury before he signed
his contract. As a result, San Diego signed him to a well-below market value
deal. He tried to avoid shoulder surgery, but Stauffer’s stuff never rebounded
to what it was in college. He made it to Triple-A in his first pro season, and
has pitched in the majors in three separate seasons, but his stuff continues to
dwindle. He may have been better off having surgery, missing a year, and hoping
for the best. As it stands now, he looks like a Four-A player or major league
mop-up reliever.
Stauffer是另一位伤兵。特别的是，他是在大学时就受了伤。他很诚实的跟教士队说了这
件事，因此签约金远低于市价。他试图避免肩膀手术，但他的stuff一直没有回来。他断断
续续的在大联盟待了三季，而他的stuff持续下滑。也许当初动手术对他是比较好的选择。
现在他看来是4A球员或是大联盟球队的败战处理投手。
Chris Lubanski
It was always a little perplexing that the pitching-starved Royals kept
drafting raw, toolsy position players with high draft picks. If any team could
have benefited from drafting “safe” college pitchers, it would have been that
franchise in the early- to mid-2000s. Lubanski was a bit of a surprise pick so
early in the draft (although he was ranked by BA as the ninth best player
available) but the Royals have been known for taking risks; sometimes it worked
(Billy Butler), other times it didn’t (Colt Griffin, Lubanski). To be fair,
though, Lubanski is not a lost cause. He’s still only 23, he’s a left-handed
batter and he has Triple-A experience. But he was also left unprotected in
December’s Rule 5 draft and no one took the risk of drafting him. The 2005
season, in which Lubanski hit .301/.349/.554 (with 28 homers), may have been
the worst thing to happen to him in his career, as it set unfair expectations.
That season was spent in High Desert, one of the top hitting parks in all of
baseball. The problem is that Lubanski probably isn’t a 25-homer guy, nor is
he a 20 stolen base guy. That makes him a tweener, and a fourth outfielder at
the major league level.
皇家队向来喜欢用前段顺位选进完成度较低的野手，期使他们缺的是投手。如果要说哪一
队可以从"安全"的大学投手上获利，那一定就是皇家队了。Lubanski比预期中的还要早一
些选进，而皇家队也很清楚风险：有些成功(Billy Butler)，有些失败(Colt Griffin,
Lubanski)。凭良心讲，Lubanski还不算失败，他是23岁的左打并且有3A经验，但在规则五
选秀中却乏人问津。2005年的成绩.301/.349/.554让他受到过高的期待，而这成绩是在最
偏打者的球场打出来的。Lubanski不会有25轰也不会有25盗，这让他成为一位四号外野手
。
Ryan Harvey
Harvey may have had the most raw power of any player in the 2003 draft. But he
may also be the most frustrating. He started his career with two years in short
season ball and posted OK, but not great, numbers. He then spent three years in
A-ball… never a good sign for any prospect, let alone a top pick. In 2005 at
Peoria, Harvey batted .257/.302/.484 and hit 24 homers in 467 at-bats. The
Midwest League is not an easy place to hit homers, so the number is impressive.
The 24 walks and 137 strikeouts, though, was not good. Regardless, he moved up
a small step the next season to High-A ball in Daytona and slammed 20 homers in
475 at-bats but hit .248/.290/.432. Injuries took a chunk out of Harvey’s 2007
season and he repeated High-A ball with poor results as he hit .252/.298/.456
with 11 homers in 224 at-bats. He walked only seven times while striking out 53
times. Entering into 2008, Harvey is still only 23 but he was thrown to the
wolves in Double-A despite not really earning the opportunity to move up the
ladder. So far the results have not been pretty and he is hitting
.216/.268/.395 through 17 games.
Harvey可能有选秀会中最佳的砲瓦，但也大概是最让人失望的一位。他在短期A打了两年，
然后在1A打了三年...这不是什么好事。2005年打出.257/.302/.484加上24轰，但
24BB/137K就不怎样了。隔年在A+打出.248/.290/.432加上20轰，2007年因伤继续在A+打滚
。Harvey今年也才23岁但却被丢到2A去被摧残。目前为止在17场中打出.216/.268/.395。
Nick Markakis
The majority of baseball teams that had their eyes on Markakis saw his left arm
as being more valuable than his bat, as a two-way player. In fact, in the
pre-draft rankings, Baseball America had him listed as a pitcher:
He pitched at 92-94 mph for most of the season, though he sat at 88-90 in
May. His slurvy breaking ball is a plus pitch and he has improved his
changeup. There's some effort to his delivery, but he has a quick arm and
few lefties can match his stuff. He's the second-best draft-and-follow on
the market, trailing only Chipola (Fla.) JC's Adam Loewen, and like Loewen
he could be an early pick if he were just a power-hitting right fielder.
Chalk one up to Baltimore for making a very wise decision and going against the
consensus. Markakis has been a revelation for an organization desperate for
some star power. Not only did Markakis succeed as a hitter, he made the switch
effortlessly and spent only three seasons in the minors before making his MLB
debut. He also did not bat under .283 or have an on-base average under .371 in
his career and continues to show improvement every year. Last year, at the age
of 23, Markakis slugged 23 homers and drove in 112 runs.
大多数的球队认为Markakis的投球比打击更有价值。事实上Baseball America在球探报告
中将Markakis当作投手：
他的速球可以投到92-94mph，滑曲球已经相当好而变速球也在进步之中。投球动作有
些缺点，但他的快手使他拥有属一属二的stuff。他是市场中第二好的draft-and-
follow，仅次于Adam Loewen，并且也可能会以强打右外野手的身分被选。
金莺队做了一个明智的抉择。Markakis成了金莺队渴望已久的明星打者。他只花了三年就
上到大联盟，生涯打击率超过.283上垒率超过.371而且每一年都在进步。去年他以23岁之
龄打了23发全垒打112分打点。（题外话，Markakis在2004雅典奥运时有对我们中华队投过
球喔）
Paul Maholm
Maholm was a safe college pick – a left-handed starter that didn’t throw hard
but was polished and knew how to pitch. He entered pro ball and, for good or
bad, nothing has changed. By the end of his second full pro season, Maholm was
pitching for Pittsburgh and he posted an ERA of 2.18 in six starts. He
struggled in his first full pro season, mainly due to a lack of control by
allowing 4.14 BB/9. Maholm rectified that in 2007 as that number dropped to
2.48 BB/9, although his ERA rose from 4.76 to 5.02. Hits have been a problem in
the last two years as he has averaged exactly 10.33 each season. At the age of
26, Maholm is what he is: a dependable, back-of-the-rotation starter.
安全的大学左投；球速不快但完成度很高。大联盟生涯的前六场ERA 2.18，隔年是生涯第
一个完整球季，因为控球不佳投的有些挣扎。2007年控球改善但ERA升到5.02。被安打过多
一直是他的问题。已经26岁的他会是可靠的、后段轮值的先发。
John Danks
Danks was considered the top prep southpaw at the time of the draft, after
passing Andrew Miller as the year wore on. He was hitting 93-94 mph fairly
regularly and teams saw him as a potential No. 2 starter. Fast forward to 2008
and Danks looks more like a reliable No. 4 starter, maybe a No. 3 if he can cut
down on those hits and walks. In 2007, for the White Sox, he allowed 10.33 H/9
and 3.50 BB/9. He throws more in the 90-92 mph range, albeit with a nice
curveball. He has looked much more comfortable in 2008 and has a 3.04 ERA
through four starts with much better numbers all around.
Danks被认为是当年选秀会上顶尖的南面爪。速球可以维持在93-94mph并被认为有二号先发
的资质。现在看来他会是四号先发，如果可以降低保送和安打的话也许会是三号。去年在
白袜投出10.33 H/9 3.50 BB/9的成绩，速球在90-92mph之间，有个不差的曲球。2008年
看来又进步了些，四场先发中投出3.04 ERA。
Ian Stewart
It’s funny how quickly we forget what big things were expected from some
players, as we can see by this excerpt from Baseball America’s pre-draft
scouting report on Stewart:
[Stewart] has exceptional bat speed and more power even than Delmon Young,
according to some scouts. Though his swing is flat and lacks tilt, he
projects 35-40 homers a year in the big leagues… Stewart's bat compares
favorably to two former Trojan left-handed-hitting third base recruits: the
A's Eric Chavez and the Padres' Sean Burroughs, both former first-rounders.
Stewart’s numbers looked good in the first two seasons of his pro career, but
those numbers were inflated by playing in some very good hitter’s parks. He
has never come close to duplicating the 30 homers and 101 RBI he produced in
Asheville in 2004. In the last three seasons, he has hit 17, 10 and 15 homers.
There also aren’t a lot of scouts that think he can stick at third base on an
everyday basis and he lacks the power to be a top option at first base. There
was even some talk of moving him to second base, but he lacks the athleticism
to succeed at that position. Stewart could end up as a corner utility player or
a starter at first base on a lesser MLB team.
一件有趣的事是我们很快的忘记曾经对某些球员的高度期待。我们可以来看看Baseball
America对Stewart的球探报告：
他有很好的挥棒速度，而砲瓦甚至比Delmon Young更好。挥棒动作有点过大，但有
35-40全垒打的潜力。他的对照组是Eric Chavez和Sean Burroughs。
Stewart前两季的数字不错，但那是被球场因素灌水过的。他再也没有复制过他在
Asheville时的成绩。最近三季他的全垒打数分别是17，10，15。球探们也不认为他有守三
垒的能力，而他也没有一垒手应有的砲瓦。有人想把他移防二垒，但他的运动能力还是不
够。Stewart最终应该会是角落工具人或是在某些球队担任先发一垒手。