by John Sickels on Apr 25, 2008 5:04 PM EDT
http://www.minorleagueball.com/
: Lots of people have been asking me about Phil Hughes, so here goes. First the
: brief career rundown.
很多人都向我询问Phil Hughes,所以我用这篇文章来讨论他。先来看看他的生涯成绩。
: Hughes was drafted in the first round in 2004, 23rd overall, out of high
: school in Santa Ana, California. He threw five shutout innings in a
: three-game trial in the Gulf Coast League. Scouts liked his projectability
: and his command of his low-90s fastball, along with a strong slider and
: changeup. I gave him a Grade B in the '05 book, worried about reports
: regarding a sore elbow.
Hughes是在2004年选秀会上第一轮23顺位被选走，当时他是加州Santa Ana的高中投手。
他在Gulf Coast League的三场试验性质比赛中投出5局无失分的表现。不少球探喜欢
Hughes的发展性，同时也对他对于low-90的速球控制感到满意。而Hughes除了这些之外，
还有强力滑球跟变速球。考虑到有些球探报告中提到手肘酸痛的问题，我在05年给他
B的评价。
: Shoulder trouble limited him to 16 starts in 2005, but they went well,
: including a 1.97 ERA and a 72/16 K/BB in 69 innings in the Sally League, and
: a 21/4 K/BB in 18 innings in the Florida State League. He improved his
: curveball dramatically and began using it more than the slider, to reduce
: stress on his arm. I raised his grade to B+ in the '06 book, but was worried
: about injury risk.
他在05年受制于肩膀问题只先发出赛了16场，但依然表现精彩: 防御率1.97，在Sally
League出赛69局交出 72/16 K/BB，在Florida State League出赛18局投出21/4 K/BB。
在这个阶段，Hughes的曲球戏剧性的产生大幅度进步，也让他使用曲球的比例开始超过
滑球。这降低了他手臂所承受的负担。在06年我把他的评价提升到B+，但仍然忧心于受伤
的风险。
: Hughes threw 146 innings in 2006, split between five starts for Tampa and 21
: for Double-A Trenton, where he went 10-3, 2.25 with a 138/32 K/BB in 116
: innings. His velocity spiked into the 93-95 range, hitting 96 at times. The
: curveball also got better. Scouts were somewhat concerned about his erratic
: changeup, but overall it was hard to knock his performance. I gave him a
: straight Grade A, now considering that his injury risk was no higher than any
: other pitcher his age.
Hughes在06年总共在小联盟投了146局，其中5场替A+ Tampa先发，另外21场则是2A的
Trenton，在那里他在116局里10胜3败、防御率2.25，138/22 的K/BB。他的速球落在93
到95MPH之间，有时候甚至可以投到96MPH，曲球也进步了。球探有点担心他不稳的变速球
但是那根本无损于Hughes的表现。我当时直接给他A的评价，并且认为他受伤的风险不会比
同年龄的其他投手来的高。
: As you know, Hughes did have some durability troubles last year, Thankfully
: it was his hamstrings and a bum ankle that were the problems, not his elbow
: or shoulder. He held his own in major league action, very commendable given
: his age and the pressure of the New York environment, but his velocity was
: down at times, and again this year in the early going. In his major league
: career thus far, Hughes is 5-6, 5.14 with a 69/39 K/BB in 91 innings. He's
: been hit hard in April, and I don't like his 11/10 K/BB ratio in 2008.
就如同你们知道的，Hughes去年在持续出场投球上碰到一些困难。幸好经过检查发现是
腿肌腱跟踝部的问题，而不是手肘或肩膀的旧伤。考虑到他当时的年纪(20岁)，以及在
纽约出赛的环境压力，他去年的表现其实相当不错。不过他球速有时候会下滑，同样的状
况也发生在今年刚开季。看看他目前的大联盟成绩，5胜6败、91局ERA 5.14 69/39K/BB。
他在4月里被打得很惨，同时我也不喜欢他目前11/10 K/BB的比例。
: So what is wrong with Hughes? I get panicked email from Yankees fans, asking
: if he was overhyped. No, he wasn't overhyped. Yes, there is a problem with
: Hughes right now. He's 21, practically skipped Triple-A, and is pitching for
: the New York Freaking Yankees. Cut the kid some slack. Indications are that
: his mechanics are a bit off right now , hampering his fastball command and
: probably the velocity too. As long as he remains healthy, I think there is a
: really good chance that Hughes will be just fine. Maybe he just needs some
: additional Triple-A time to regain his mechanical footing.
所以Hughes到底出了什么毛病?我收到慌张的洋基球迷来信，询问著Hughes的实力是不是
被大家过分夸大了。不，并没有。我承认目前他的确是有问题。不过他才21岁，跳过3A直
接为纽约"怪咖"洋基队投球。让这个年轻人喘口气吧!有些消息指出，他投球机制有点跑掉
同时造成球速跟控球的衰退。只要保持健康，我相信Hughes仍然大有可为。或许他只是需
要在3A出赛一些时间把他的投球机制给修正回来。
: Ah, but there's the standard young pitcher caveat: as long as he remains
: healthy. I'm not worried about the mechanical problem in and of itself: that
: should be correctable. But what if the mechanical problem is a symptom of
: some underlying physical issue? That's known to happen, a pitcher altering
: his delivery on a subconcious level in response to a developing injury that
: he's not even aware of yet. Or what if there is no physical problem right
: now, but the mechanical tinkering triggers one as muscles are stressed in an
: unusual way? That's known to happen, too.
呃，不过这同时也是一个警讯："只要他保持健康" 我并不担心投球机制本身的问题，因为
我相信那是可以被修正的。不过，如果投球机制的转变，只是身体问题所产生的症状呢?
我们已经知道这是会发生的。投手因为尚未成形、自己浑然不觉的伤痛，若有意、若无意
地改变了自己的投球机制。或者是考虑另外一种情形，投手目前还没有身体上的状况，
却因为投球机制的改变带来肌肉不正常的压力? 这也是会发生的事情。
: Yankees fans want a prediction. So here's one: Hughes will struggle on and
: off the next month or two, alternate strong outings with weak ones, with a
: slight improvement in his ratios but not enough to make statheads
: comfortable. Then in late July he goes on the DL with an injury of some kind,
: probably something vague like "shoulder weakness." He rests and rehabs, comes
: back in September and pitches like his normal self the rest of the way. He
: still may have to pay the Major Injury Piper sometime down the line, but not
: this year.. Whaddya think?
基迷想要一个预测。那我就来做一个。Hughes在接下来1到2个月持续挣扎，在好投跟爆炸
之间交替，同时会把他的K/BB比例提升，但还不足以让数据头满意。六月下旬，他将会进
DL，原因则可能模糊不明，例如"肩膀不适"之类的毛病。然后经过休息与复健，九月他将
再起，在剩下的比赛中投出我们所期待他正常的一面。Hughes仍然可能要持续为他的旧伤
付出代价，但不是今年。你们怎么想?