http://tinyurl.com/5c9e6z
By Alex Eisenberg
April 2, 2008
As sort of a preview to the upcoming articles about the most overrated
prospects in baseball, I wanted to look at a pitcher that I tend to think
talent evaluators overrate: Homer Bailey. The questions I have about Bailey are
more in relation to his overall numbers and his mental make-up than about the
quality of his stuff.
When he's at his best, Bailey's fastball can be electric. He can consistently
pump 95, 96, and 97 mph fastballs by hitters and the pitch can have a sneaky
quality to it as it explodes out of Bailey's hand.
This past year, however, Bailey saw his velocity drop and his control regress.
Many blamed his regression on a groin injury he suffered on June 26th and there
is evidence that this was indeed the case. However, I have video before
Bailey's groin injury that suggests the explosion Bailey showed on his fastball
in 2006 was not there in 2007, or at least not consistently there, nor was
there much consistency of his command.
Now, we should understand the biases of using just one game to look at Bailey's
stuff. Sample size is a major issue here and that concern is noted. On the left
is Bailey on 6/4/07, while Bailey in the 2006 Future's Game is on the right. If
any of the following clips have their timing thrown off, just refresh the
browser.
来谈谈一位我认为被高估的新秀:Homer Bailey。我对他的疑问主要是在整体的成绩和心理
建设而不是关于stuff的部份。
当他状况好时，速球可以轻松投到97 mph带有很好的尾劲。然而，去年Bailey的球速掉了
、控球也变差了。很多人认为鼠蹊部的受伤是主要原因。但07年受伤前的影片显示06年和
07年Bailey的速球差异不只是受伤的关系。
左边的影片是Bailey在6/4/07的比赛，右边的影片是Bailey在2006 Future's Game的投球
。
Do you agree that Bailey's fastball on the left has less life on it? The
mechanics Bailey displays in each clip are pretty similar, but two small
differences may account for his drop in velocity:
同不同意06年的Bailey比较猛？投球动作大致上看来很像，但有两点小小的不同。
1. Arm Action - the clips are synchronized to release:
I prefer Bailey's arm action in 06 because he has a better scap load, an
overall smoother arm action, and a cleaner elbow rotation into release. The
scap load helps a pitcher in terms of velocity by increasing arm speed, while
an arm action that is smoother overall without a loss in momentum is important
for both velocity and injury prevention. Bailey does have a shorter arm action
in 2007, but Bailey's arm in 06 covers more distance in roughly the same amount
of time than his arm in 07
挥臂：我比较喜欢06年的Bailey，因为手臂-肩膀拉的比较大，整体动作比较顺畅，而且手
肘旋转比较干净。手臂后拉可以帮助提升挥臂速度，而简洁的挥臂动作可以降低受伤风险
。07年的Bailey挥臂是比较短，但06年的挥臂速度比较快。
2. Finish/Extension/Upper Body Tilt - the clips are again synchronized to
release:
See how the 06 version is more out in front, has the better upper body tilt,
and therefore more extension? By achieving excellent extension, and combined
with his incredibly long arms, Bailey is releasing the ball a little closer to
home plate than most other pitchers are able to and because of this, as well as
a more aggressive finish, Bailey's fastball becomes more explosive and jumps on
the hitter much more quickly.
Bailey also has a plus curveball of the power variety in that the bottom drops
out as it approaches the batter. Again, when Bailey gets excellent extension,
it helps his off-speed stuff play up as well. His change-up is mostly a show-me
pitch right now, but it is slowly improving to average quality.
For a guy with such electric stuff, Bailey's overall numbers don't capture that
completely. The low amount of hits is a positive, and the K% of 27 in both 05
and 06 is also very good, but I think his K% should be higher given how good
his stuff is. In addition, his K% was just 22.1 last year. His control and
command improved dramatically in 2006, but regressed this past year. Bailey has
also had a BB% of less than 10 at just one minor league level over his career.
I do realize he was injured for a chunk of last year, but his numbers were not
as impressive as they should have been considering the quality of his stuff.
看看06年的影片，Bailey身体的前倾是不是做的比较好？好的身体前倾加上他超长的手臂
，Bailey的放球点可以离本垒板更近，更加强化速球的威力。
Bailey还有一颗plus curveball。同样的，好的身体前倾也能强化曲球的威力。他现在的
变速球还只是配菜，但会慢慢进化到平均水准。
对一个stuff这么棒的球员来说，Bailey的成绩实在不能让人满意。很少的被安打和05、
06年 27K%是不错的数字，但我觉得还能再更好，而去年他的K%只有22.1。前年的控球大有
进步，但去年又退回来了。他BB%只在一个小联盟层级低于10。去年他是受伤了，但无论如
何，他的成绩就是还不够好。
Mental Make-Up
I normally wouldn't maket too big a deal about a pitcher's mental make-up. I
view it as a plus or minus but I would like see actual talent and results
before using reports on a player's mental make-up to draw opinions about a
prospect. My opinion is that reports on the make-up of a player are way too
subjective of a way to judge a player because nobody can get inside the head of
a player to get a feel for the exact thought processes of that player.
But this report from Baseball America's Scout's View, given before the 2007
season, gives me some pause:
"I think he out thinks himself sometimes. His stuff is so overpowering
. . . when I saw him the last time, he started just about every hitter out
with curveballs. He’d get behind guys 2-0, 3-0—guys that are hitting
eighth in the lineup—and you kind of think to yourself, ‘Why isn’t this
guy just going right after these guys and do it?
He might have better stuff, but if there's one guy to be wary of in terms
of will stuff exceed performance, I think this is a guy who might do it."
With all that being said, making the case for Bailey is rather simple. He is a
tall, athletic pitcher with long arms and has the ability to generate
tremendous arm speed. When he is on his game, he has electric stuff. There are
some rough edges, but nothing that can't be smoothed out.
心理：一般说来，我不是太重视这方面。心理素质可能有加分或扣分，但我通常会先研究
投手的stuff和成绩。我是觉得心理素质方面的报告能告诉我们的东西太少了。
但这篇Baseball America的球探报告是这么说的： "我想这这家伙有时想太多了，他有很
好的stuff...上次我看到他时，他只用曲球对付每个打者。他球数落后给那些自动出局数
。你有时会想:难道他就不能好好投球吗？
他是有很好的stuff，但如果要说，哪一位选手的表现会不符期待，我想那就是他。"
我想，在心理的层面，Bailey是还有些不足的地方，但这些是需要解决的。
Future Outlook
Bailey is a still a terrific prospect. Even with his flaws, we should still
point out how young he is at 21 (turning 22 in May). However, based on
consistency and performance issues, to go along with questions of how well he
can "pitch" and not just "throw", we should ask ourselves just how good we
think Bailey will be. The potential to be a #1 starter is there, but he has
much to do before reaching that level. He could easily settle in as a
dominating at times, but inconsistent #3 starter, which I view as much more
likely than reaching his #1 starter upside.
Grade:
9 Upside, Low/Very Low Probability
7 Mid-Level, Average Probability
5.5 Downside, Low-Average Probability
Bailey还是一位很棒的新秀，即使他有这些缺点，但年轻就是本钱。然而，他必须学会怎
么"投球"而不是"丢球"。他有成为王牌投手的潜力，但也有很多需要改进的地方。如果不
进步的话，他是有可能成为不太稳定的三号投手。