P2P经济结构来了！
Peer-to-peer, or P2P, networks have thrown the media industry into turmoil,
changing the flow of information from a one-to-many model (with newspaper
publishers, Hollywood studios, and big music companies as the sources) to a
many-to-many model (with blogs, YouTube, and file-sharing forums as the venues).
The ability of individuals to both consume and create content—news, movies, and
music—greatly threatens traditional players. Witness the struggles of
established U.S. newspaper publishers—the share prices of the four largest
have fallen between 10% and 50% during the generally rising market of the past
three years—because of challenges from new media and advertising models,
including P2P schemes.
点对点传输网络(简称P2P)，已将多媒体工业卷进一场大骚动，它改变了资讯以往的传
播流向，从原本的一对多形态(诸如报纸出版商、好莱坞影视和大型音乐公司所扮演的来源
角色)变成多对多形态(像是部落格、YouTube视频平台以及档案共享的线上讨论室，成为共
襄盛举的聚集所在)。这种只需个人就能兼具消费和创作(如新闻、电影与音乐)的能力，大
大地威胁了秉持传统立场的角色。以美国的报纸出版商为见证，在过去三年内，受到这普
遍崛起的市场挑战之下，前四大报社的股价已纷纷下跌了10%至50%不等，正归因于新的传
播媒介和广告模式，当然包含了P2P系统。
A shock like the one that jolted the media is poised to strike other
industries, perhaps more disruptively. It is already being felt in financial
services. Start with the phenomenon of microcredit: the lending of small sums
(这一段翻得七荤八素@[email protected]")
to, and then within, social groups at the village level in poor economies, with
members collectively guaranteeing the bank’s loan. Combine that with the power
of a global digital network, and a new model for banking begins to take shape.
另一项足以和撼动传媒界相比的冲击，也早就蓄势待发，即将打击其余的工业界，或
许会更具有分化力。而此现象已经闯进了金融服务业，一切得从微型赊贷的奇蹟说起。对
于一群贫困环境中仅有农村水平的人们，将他们的小额借贷汇整后，再从中募集成员为此
笔贷款认作担保。把此功能与全球化数位系统的力量结合以后，一种银行业的新模式也就
得以成型。
Indeed, P2P financial systems are set to reprise in the banking industry
what has happened in media. Already, websites like Kiva.org, Prosper.com, and
LendingClub.com have extended microbanking to consumers in developed economies.
In such systems, everyone is a tiny bank, making it easier to raise small
amounts of capital among people who know—or at least, because of their social
network, trust—one another.
确实，P2P金融系统已做好在银行业登台的准备，上演在传媒业发生的相同戏码。像
是Kiva.org、 Prosper.com、和LendingClub.com这些网站，都已经着手拓展微型赊贷到
已开发经济体系的顾客版图。在这样的体系之下，每个人都可成为一个极小的银行，在一
群彼此认识(或至少说，他们在人脉网络中的信任)的人当中，更容易募集到小笔的资金。
It is only a matter of time before these digital systems close the arbitrage
enjoyed by large banks, which lend at up to 15% interest but pay only about 5%
on capital. Why do business with a bank when your network’s lending and savings
interest rates are both 7%? To grasp the power of such a system, imagine your
local credit union with the membership and social networking capabilities of
MySpace.(注：MySpace是目前全球最大的社区交友网站)
对这类数位系统而言，要关闭当前大型银行所享获套利(注：此指的是从两样相同性质
的交易项中，从中买卖所赚取的差价，更详细的法则请求助商科人士。)的门路，不过只是
时间上的问题，这些公司从中取得高达15%的利益，却只付出了约5%的贷款额。当你网络上
借款和储蓄的利率都达到7%时，为何还得和银行做这笔生意？为了解这项体制的威力，你可
试想当在地的信用会社，与MySpace里的会员及网络功能统合后的情形。
Furthermore, people will soon use personal currencies to make payments for
“knowledge services” provided by other individuals, such as social introduc-
tions and shopping tips. These currencies will be traded on exchanges at
floating rates determined by the market in real time. Like national currencies,
personal currencies derive their value from the reputation and size of the
(好字眼˙Ｖ˙b)
network—status as an expert and number of friends, in this case, rather than
market expectations and size of the economy.
除此之外，人们将很快地开始使用个人货币(注：这里想表达的是一种取代真实货币的
虚拟价值概念，只是中文没有对应的字眼可用>_<)，来偿付由他人提供的“知识服务”，
像是社交入门或购物诀窍之类的。这些货币将跟上真实市场中的资产流动率，作为贸易上
的交流凭借。如同国家的货币一般，个人货币的价值则是从网络上的信誉和声望而来，像
是专家的地位以及朋友的数量；在这样的事例中，并非源自市场预期和经济体的规模。
An even greater shock could hit the energy industry, transforming it into a
network that would make the current electricity grid seem rudimentary. Again,
the consumer-producer would be the driving force. Some people are already insta-
lling home-based solar or other energy sources that allow them to sell electri-
city to the grid. Companies are using the roofs of their buildings for
installations that turn the facilities into net power producers. Energy
production and distribution could ultimately shift from a few key players to
many participants.
甚至还有一记更大的震撼可能冲击到能源业，将迫使当前的电力网络相形失色。又一
次地，兼具消费与制造的人们将再度成为幕后推手。目前已有某些民众在家装上了太阳能
或其他形式的产能设备，使得他们能够将电力贩售给其业者。而这些公司也开始利用一般
住家的屋顶，企图将这些场所转变成供应能源的子网络。于此，能源的生产与分配也就可
由一部份关键的操作者，最终回归到大多数的关系人身上。
The real breakthrough will come when cars generate more electricity than
they consume—not as outlandish as it sounds. Hybrid vehicles currently take
the kinetic electricity generated by braking and use it to help fuel motion and
prolong battery life. Kinetic and battery technologies could improve to the
point where cars generate excess kinetic power from their motion to be stored
and sold back to the grid for micropayments.
当汽车产生的电力比消耗的量还多时，一项新的突破就即将来临－它可不像听起来那
般吊诡。最近的油电混合车可利用煞车时产生的动能，帮助燃烧的过程和延长电池的寿命
。动力与电池科技，即改善了汽车在产生多余的动力功率此过程中的储能指标。再行回卖
给业者，以达到聚沙成塔的报偿效果。
These successive and ever more disruptive P2P shock waves foreshadow a
distributed economy in which consumption is transformed into production that
provides micro-income streams for individuals. The greater efficiency of such a
system would help us all to live closer to sustainable economic equilibrium—
which would be, on the whole, quite a pleasant shock.
这些纷沓而至的成功案例和P2P这枚更具分化性的空前震撼弹，已预现了一个能为个人
(这样长的名词都很难翻....~_~")
添增微薄收入、并将消费转化为制造的分布式经济体。如此更有效率的系统，或许将帮助
我们更靠近稳固的经济平衡点上－大体而言，是一个相当惬意的震惊。