作者:索菲· 坦诺(Sophie Tanno)和玛丽亚· 科斯滕科(Maria Kostenko),CNN
发表时间:2025年1月19日,美东时间上午5:03
CNN —
自唐纳德· 川普(Donald Trump)再次当选美国总统后,全球领导人纷纷努力获取他的青?
,其中尤以乌克兰最为明显。
在他的年度新年讲话中,乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔· 泽伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)表示?
他“毫不怀疑新任美国总统有意愿和能力实现和平,结束普丁的侵略行为”,这些言论体现
了他赢得川普支持的策略。
几天后,泽伦斯基在接受美国播客主持人采访时表示,川普之所以胜选,是因为他比卡玛拉
· 哈里斯(Kamala Harris)更“强大”,并补充道,“他在智力和体力上都表现出色。”
泽伦斯基并非唯一一位试图讨好川普的乌克兰知名人士。根据《基辅独立报》获悉的一封信
,泽伦斯基所属党派的一名乌克兰议员甚至在去年十一月提名川普获得诺贝尔和平奖。
此类策略长期以来受到外国势力的青睐。回想中国如何带领川普参观紫禁城,或英国政府在
他上任最后一任期内动员皇室成员协助白宫事务,都是典型例子。
这并非乌克兰的新做法。正如2019年CNN一篇意见文章所称的“教科书式的奉承”,泽伦斯
基在那次臭名昭著的通话中称川普为“伟大的老师”,当时这位当时的第一任总统督促乌克
兰调查乔· 拜登(Joe Biden)及其儿子亨特(Hunter)的事宜。
多年后,对乌克兰来说,赌注无疑更高。基辅在2025年开局不利,与俄罗斯的战争中,乌克
兰部队在东部地区努力抵抗俄军的进攻,数量上大幅处于劣势。短期内收复被俄占领领土的
希望日益渺茫。
在拜登总统卸任期间,美国成为对乌克兰提供军事援助的最大单一国家,基辅深知必须维持
与川普的良好关系,以确保未来的支持。
“以实力换和平”
“不幸的是,泽伦斯基没有奢侈的余地去对川普抱持敌意,”欧洲外交关系委员会(Europe
an Council on Foreign Relations)的政策研究员乔安娜· 霍萨(Joanna Hosa)告诉CNN
“他至少必须努力争取川普站在乌克兰这边,以确保对乌克兰最有利的结果,这在很大程度
上依赖于美国的支持。”
川普一再强调结束俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争的必要性,暗示谈判可能即将展开。他的特使提出
的结束战争计划包含了许多令克里姆林宫满意的内容。
泽伦斯基表示,他希望“直接与新总统合作”,并显得更愿意——或许是别无选择——做出
战场上的让步。
当然,乌克兰希望能够收复所有失地。然而,经过三年的这场疲惫战争,全面收复所有失地
已无望。霍萨表示,“乌克兰人带着沉重的心情,正在慢慢接受这一现实。”
泽伦斯基经常形容川普为坚强,显然是为了迎合这位以“以实力换和平”为口号的新任总统
。
“川普可能至关重要。我认为这对我们来说是最重要的。他的特质就是这样。他在这场战争
中能够果断行动。他能阻止普丁,”泽伦斯基本月早些时候在乌克兰战时电视网“联合新闻
”上告诉CNN。
伦敦智库查塔姆学会(Chatham House)俄罗斯与欧亚项目副主任奥里西娅· 卢采维奇(Or
ia Lutsevych)认为,泽伦斯基的赞美大多是真诚的。她告诉CNN:“我认为他真心相信川
普可以采取果断行动,这是希望的来源,不仅在泽伦斯基的心中,在整个乌克兰也是如此。
”
利益一致
另一个因素是,与之前的美国政府不同,川普从根本上相信他可以与俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米
尔· 普丁(Vladimir Putin)建立良好关系。他长期表达对普丁的钦佩,而其他世界领导?
则对他避而远之,并承诺在上任后“非常迅速”地与普丁会面。
普丁方面——拜登曾谴责他为“屠夫”——似乎也愿意与川普建立关系。在川普当选后,普
丁向他表示祝贺,称他为“勇敢的人”。在去年年底的新闻发布会上,他表示已准备好与川
普会面。
即便俄罗斯被带到谈判桌,仍有理由相信其承诺不可信。正如CNN的首席国际安全记者尼克?
帕顿· 沃尔什(Nick Paton Walsh)指出,莫斯科此前对乌克兰的和平承诺被认为是欺诈?
任何潜在的停火可能仅名义上存在。
卢采维奇认为,乌克兰政府试图将基辅对莫斯科的失败描绘为加强美国在世界舞台上的“权
力投射”。
“这就是游戏规则;川普是否会相信这是一个可行的策略,则是另一个问题,”她说。
泽伦斯基还提出了其他利益。去年十月,他提出在俄罗斯对乌战争结束后,用乌克兰部队取
代部分驻扎在欧洲的美军。他认为,基辅部队的战时经验可以派上用场,增强北约——乌克
兰已获得加入北约的保证——并有助于确保欧洲的安全,这可能吸引一位要求欧洲在防务上
做出更多贡献的美国领导人。
泽伦斯基还迎合了川普以商业为重的思维。他所谓的“胜利计划”(Victory Plan),去年
十月公布,其中包括与美国在矿产资源上的重大协议——乌克兰拥有丰富的关键资源。
普丁方面——拜登曾谴责他为“屠夫”——似乎也愿意与川普建立关系。在川普当选后,普
丁向他表示祝贺,称他为“勇敢的人”。在去年年底的新闻发布会上,他表示已准备好与川
普会面。
即便俄罗斯被带到谈判桌,仍有理由相信其承诺不可信。正如CNN的首席国际安全记者尼克?
帕顿· 沃尔什(Nick Paton Walsh)指出,莫斯科此前对乌克兰的和平承诺被认为是欺诈?
任何潜在的停火可能仅名义上存在。
卢采维奇认为,乌克兰政府试图将基辅对莫斯科的失败描绘为加强美国在世界舞台上的“权
力投射”。
“这就是游戏规则;川普是否会相信这是一个可行的策略,则是另一个问题,”她说。
泽伦斯基还提出了其他利益。去年十月,他提出在俄罗斯对乌战争结束后,用乌克兰部队取
代部分驻扎在欧洲的美军。他认为,基辅部队的战时经验可以派上用场,增强北约——乌克
兰已获得加入北约的保证——并有助于确保欧洲的安全,这可能吸引一位要求欧洲在防务上
做出更多贡献的美国领导人。
泽伦斯基还迎合了川普以商业为重的思维。他所谓的“胜利计划”(Victory Plan),去年
十月公布,其中包括与美国在矿产资源上的重大协议——乌克兰拥有丰富的关键资源。
原文:
Ukraine opens a new front against Russia – flattering Trump
By Sophie Tanno and Maria Kostenko, CNN
Published 5:03 AM EST, Sun January 19, 2025
CNN
—
World leaders have been rushing to get on Donald Trump’s good side since his re
election as US president, arguably none more so than Ukraine.
In his annual New Year address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he h
ad “no doubt that the new American president is willing and capable of achievin
g peace and ending Putin’s aggression,” in comments that embody his approach t
o winning over Trump.
Just days later, Zelensky told an American podcaster that Trump won as he was a
“much stronger” candidate than Kamala Harris, adding, “He showed that he can
do it intellectually and physically.”
Zelensky isn’t alone among prominent Ukrainians in trying to butter up Trump. I
n November, a Ukrainian MP from Zelensky’s party even nominated him for a Nobel
Peace Prize, according to a letter seen by the Kyiv Independent.
Such tactics have long been favored by foreign powers. Think of how China took T
rump to the Forbidden City or the UK government enlisted the royals during his l
ast term in the White House.
Nor is this an entirely new approach from Ukraine. In what a 2019 CNN opinion ar
ticle called a “textbook suck-up,” Zelensky could be heard hailing Trump as a
“great teacher” on the notorious call in which the then first-term president u
rged Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
Years on, the stakes could not be higher for Ukraine. Kyiv enters 2025 on the ba
ckfoot in its war against Russia, with Ukrainian forces struggling to hold back
Russian advances in the east, where they are vastly outnumbered. Its chances of
retaking occupied Russian territory anytime soon look increasingly slim.
Under outgoing President Biden, the US became the single largest provider of mil
itary assistance to Ukraine and Kyiv remains keenly aware that it needs to stay
on Trump’s side to secure future support.
‘Peace through strength’
“Unfortunately, Zelensky does not have the luxury to be hostile towards Trump,
Peace Prize, according to a letter seen by the Kyiv Independent.
Such tactics have long been favored by foreign powers. Think of how China took T
rump to the Forbidden City or the UK government enlisted the royals during his l
ast term in the White House.
Nor is this an entirely new approach from Ukraine. In what a 2019 CNN opinion ar
ticle called a “textbook suck-up,” Zelensky could be heard hailing Trump as a
“great teacher” on the notorious call in which the then first-term president u
rged Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
Years on, the stakes could not be higher for Ukraine. Kyiv enters 2025 on the ba
ckfoot in its war against Russia, with Ukrainian forces struggling to hold back
Russian advances in the east, where they are vastly outnumbered. Its chances of
retaking occupied Russian territory anytime soon look increasingly slim.
Under outgoing President Biden, the US became the single largest provider of mil
itary assistance to Ukraine and Kyiv remains keenly aware that it needs to stay
on Trump’s side to secure future support.
‘Peace through strength’
“Unfortunately, Zelensky does not have the luxury to be hostile towards Trump,
” Joanna Hosa, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations tol
d CNN.
“He must at least try to get him on Ukraine’s side in order to secure the best
possible outcome for Ukraine, which depends enormously on American support.”
Trump has repeatedly stressed the need to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, suggesti
ng that negotiations could be on the horizon. His envoy’s plan to end the war c
ontains much that will please the Kremlin.
Zelensky has said he wants to “work directly” with the new president and appea
rs more willing to – or perhaps has no choice but to – make battlefield conces
sions.
Of course, Ukraine would want to recapture all land it lost. However, after thre
e years of this exhausting war, recapturing all land is nowhere in sight. With a
heavy heart, Ukrainians are slowly coming to accept this,” Hosa said.
Zelensky has frequently described Trump as strong, an apparent effort to appeal
to a president-elect who has made “peace through strength” a rallying call.
“Trump could be crucial. I think this is the most important thing for us. His q
Nick Paton Walsh points out, Moscow’s previous pledges of peace in Ukraine have
been characterized by deception, suggesting any potential ceasefire may be in n
ame only.
Lutsevych believes that the Ukrainian government is trying to present Kyiv’s de
feat over Moscow as something that would strengthen America’s “power projectio
n” on the world stage.
“This is the game; whether Trump will believe this is a viable strategy is anot
her question,” she said.
And Zelensky has offered other benefits. In October last year, he pitched the id
ea of swapping out some US forces based in Europe with Ukrainian troops once Rus
sia’s war in Ukraine is over. He argued that the wartime experience of Kyiv’s
forces could be put to good use, bolstering NATO – the military alliance which
Ukraine has been offered assurances it will join – and helping to ensure securi
ty in Europe, something that is likely to appeal to a US leader who has demanded
Europe do more on defense.
Zelensky has also appealed to Trump’s business-focused mind. His so-called ‘Vi
ctory Plan,’ unveiled in October last year, includes a significant deal with th
e US on minerals – a critical resource Ukraine is rich in.
According to a report in the New York Times, the signing of the minerals deal wa
s pushed back twice, with the possible motive of allowing Trump to take credit f
or it when he takes office.
Lutsevych posited that Kyiv would be making a lucrative offer to the US, in econ
omic terms. “We’ve seen that in this ‘Victory Plan,’ that it includes critic
al minerals, it includes investments… [Ukraine is] basically trying to say that
it can be profitable for America.”
But while flattering Trump is a common tactic, his unpredictability means there
are few guarantees it will work.
Trump’s welcome by then-British monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, back in 2019 did n
ot stop him from firing off a series of angry tweets moments before stepping off
his plane, describing London Mayor Sadiq Khan as a “stone cold loser.” He the
n labeled then-British Prime Minister Theresa May as “foolish.”
Hosa believes there is evidence Zelensky’s approach is paying off, with Trump a
cknowledging it would take longer than 24 hours to end the conflict – a claim h
e made in July 2024 – in a sign of his shifting attitude.
“He [Zelensky] faced a choice: flatter Trump or be forced to capitulate to Puti
n,” Hosa said.
“Flattery is a small price to pay for a better outcome than that.”
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※ 编辑: washwall (223.137.96.146 台湾), 01/19/2025 20:29:39