原文连结
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/all-star-break-pitch-framing-update/
FG今天的这篇文章把上半季的接捕能力诉诸数据来讨论
不过因为用的数据不同，所以限制和探讨的方式也就不同
但跟之前那种质化的探讨，这篇有不同的趣味
因为时间的关系，加上这一篇重点在数据，所以就不细细翻译了。
不过重点应该都有翻到，有错请指正
If this were any other stat, it wouldn’t be worth a post. If this were
instead “All-Star Break Home-Run Update,” it’d be a waste of your time,
because you could simply just look up the stat on the FanGraphs leaderboards.
They’re right up there! But, at the moment, FanGraphs doesn’t house and
update any pitch-framing statistics, and while that could change in time, that
’s the way things are today, meaning this post could have some substance.
Most people can’t look this stuff up on their own, so I’m here to provide
for you while crossing something off my weekly quota. Everybody wins.
FanGraphs is pretty selective for the intellectually curious. And, of course,
baseball fans, and intellectually curious baseball fans have generally been
interested in pitch-framing research. It’s just another thing that players
can be good or bad at, so fans want to know where their catchers rank. Right
now, we have a little break in regular-season action, so it seemed like a
good time to post the latest numbers, through the middle of July. It was
either this or a .gif post about Yasiel Puig and no there weren’t any other
options. I’ll give a quick explanation, before the data.
You can skip this part if you’ve read this part before. This is about a stat
I’ve called Diff/1000 because whatever. It’s the difference, per 1,000
pitches, between actual strikes and expected strikes, based on
plate-discipline statistics. Those stats are available here on FanGraphs, and
you can calculate these numbers yourselves, whenever you like. This isn’t as
rigorous as a PITCHf/x analysis, but what this has going for it is
simplicity, and it’s all approximately correct. There’s good agreement
between the numbers generated by this method and the numbers generated by
more detailed methods. So I prefer this, because I can calculate the numbers
I want in a minute, and I don’t have my own PITCHf/x database. Anyway,
Diff/1000. A positive number means more strikes than you’d expect. A
negative number means fewer strikes, and so a smaller strike zone. The
average team throws several thousand pitches in a regular season, which I
probably didn’t need to write.
以下数据用的是Diff/1000。他的意思是说，每1000球中，被判的好球和理应是好球的数
字差异。这数据是根据FanGraphs上的选球数据来的，并不像PITCHf/x分析那么严谨，但
这样分析简单多了，而且大致上是正确的。大于零表示被判的好球比预期的还多，负数就
表示被判的好球比较少，好球带比较小。
In the table below, you’ll find data for all the teams. They’re ranked in
descending order of Diff/1000, but what you’ll also find is 2012 Diff/1000,
and the year-to-year difference between the two. Which teams are doing well?
Which teams are doing poorly? Which teams are doing differently from how they
did a season ago?
下表是各队的数据，以今年至今Diff/1000由高到低来排序。另外附上2012年的数据，以
及两个年度的差异。
http://snag.gy/rT0XG.jpg
If you’ve read about this research before, you won’t be surprised to see
the Brewers at the top of the list. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be one of the
game’s premier receivers, and when you combine that with his offense, he
seems like a borderline star player. Yadier Molina‘s good, Chris Stewart‘s
good, Russell Martin‘s good,Ryan Doumit‘s bad. This isn’t a strength of
the Marlins — few things are — and the Mets haven’t gotten a lot from John
Buck. Most teams are within 10 of league average.
It’s interesting when you look at the final column. The second-most-improved
team is the Tigers, at plus-eight. Then the Pirates are all the way up there
at plus-21, having signed Martin away from the Yankees in free agency even
though the Yankees didn’t have a sound backup plan. Martin has
singlehandedly turned this from a weakness into a strength. At the other end,
the Mets bring up the rear at minus-13. The Braves are at minus-12, a
consequence of missing Brian McCannand playing Gerald Laird. Atlanta also
lost David Ross. The Reds are at minus-11, and that does it for the
double-digits. You’re free to explore to your heart’s content.
如果你之前对这略有所知的话，酿酒人排第一应该不意外吧，Lucroy的接捕能力很好。
Yadier Molina不错，Chris Stewart不错，Russell Martin不错，Ryan Doumit很逊。马
林鱼不怎样，John Buck的大都会也不怎样。看最后一栏，进步次多的是老虎，比去年多
了8球，进步最多的海盗比去年进步了21球，今年签下的Russell Martin一手扭转了海盗
的这数据。大都会比去年退步13球，勇士退步12球，因为Brian McCann缺席，Laird代打
一阵子，而且也少了David Ross。红人退步11球。
Moving on, let’s look at some individual pitchers. So far, 136 pitchers have
thrown at least 1,000 pitches, and below, the top 10 and the bottom 10 in
Diff/1000.
Top Ten, Diff/1000
看一下投手吧。截至目前为止，有136个投手投超过1000球，以下是Diff/1000的前十名和
最后十名。
http://snag.gy/9UuHT.jpg
This should be a link to a spreadsheet for all 136. Unsurprisingly, a Brewer’
s in the lead; unsurprisingly, a Marlin is in last. If it makes you feel any
better, or worse, Koehler has a better ERA than does Estrada; the Marlins
have a better ERA than do the Brewers. Everything doesn’t come down to
pitch-receiving, but somestuff comes down to pitch-receiving. It’s possible
that without the catchers, the Marlins would look even better, and the
Brewers would look even worse. It’s all very complicated and we can’t speak
to a Lucroy-less Milwaukee pitching staff.
不意外，第一名是酿酒人投手，最后一名是马林鱼投手。不知道你会怎么想，Koehler的
ERA比Estrada好，马林鱼团队的ERA也比酿酒人好。接捕不是球赛最关键的元素，但或许
会改变某些情况。如果捕手不同，马林鱼可能会更好，酿酒人可能会更差。
主审对Estrada很大方
http://goo.gl/wvFmt
主审对Koehler很小气
http://goo.gl/GFlKE
捕手的反应 XD
http://goo.gl/PaKWZ
That was in a 3-and-0 count, too, when umpires tend to be at their most
charitable. Koehler nailed his spot. It wasn’t a tricky pitch. The catcher
didn’t do anything particularly distracting. Ball four. All right. Now you
know this about Tom Koehler.
Above, you can see how Lucroy helped get the outside strike by making sure
his body momentum was leaning in toward the plate. Then you can see Rob
Brantlycatch a curveball all sloppy-like, driving the ball into the ground
even though it crossed the front plane in the strike zone. Granted,
curveballs aren’t easy to catch, but they should be easier than that.
What you can’t do with these numbers — which you can do with PITCHf/x — is
split them up by catcher. So simply based on this, we don’t know how much
credit should go to Lucroy or how much should go to Martin Maldonado. But you
can get good ideas, especially if you’re already familiar with
catcher-framing reputations that’ve developed in the past couple years. As
always, it’s hard to say how much all this matters, and it’s hard to
isolate the various contributing factors. But, still, it stands to reason you
’d rather have positive numbers than negative ones. For all the things the
Brewers have done wrong, they’ve done this right. And for all the things the
Marlins have done wrong, this is apparently among them.
和PITCHf/x相比，这一篇文章用的数据缺点就是没办法切出捕手个别的数据，所以酿酒人
的好表现，哪些是Lucroy的功劳哪些是Maldonado的功劳我们不知道。不过你可以得到一
个不错的概念，尤其是如果你本来就对这几年发展的接捕能力有点熟悉的话。真的很难说
我们讨论的这些影响比赛多少，而且也很难把每一个变量都分开来探讨，但是，这还是可
以推理出，你应该还是会比较想要有好的数据。酿酒人搞砸很多事情，但这一点他们做得
不错。马林鱼搞砸很多事情，这是其中之一。