好像翻得不大好，但还是试试看...
※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之铭言：
: 上一篇是健康 这一篇是表现
: The Scurrilous Lie About the WBC - Ben Lindbergh
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19425
: Baseball players are often described—or describe themselves—as creatures of
: habit. And at no time is their adherence to routine more evident than during
: their methodical preparation for the season, when they shake off a winter’s
: worth of rust and ramp up for the coming campaign. Pitchers, especially, are
: dependent on spring training to build up arm strength, incorporate new
: offerings into their arsenals, and learn to work with their batterymates. But
: every three (or, starting in 2009, four) springs, including this coming one,
: an event takes place that threatens to disrupt that routine: the World
: Baseball Classic. The timing of the tournament has caused concerns that
: pitchers who choose to participate in it could be adversely affected, which
: likely explains why the United States squad that was announced on Thursday,
: while stocked with star position players, is relatively short on impact
: pitching talent.
选手在各方面来讲，都是忠于"习惯"的动物。
他们更坚持做完成自己的例行公事胜过于在冬天努力摆脱坏习惯，
或者准备一项即将到来的赛事。
特别是投手，非常的依赖春训来建立他们手臂的强度，学习新的武器，
和学习和他们的捕手配合。(我不大确定batterymate是不是指捕手)
但是每三年(从2009年开始每四年)，多了一个WBC来破坏选手们的常规。
这项赛事引起了关注：参赛选手可能有不利影响，
这可以解释美国上周四宣称选择优秀的球员，对于他们的投球天赋会有比较小的影响。
: There’s some basis for this fear. In May of 2006, not long after the first
: World Baseball Classic concluded, Nate Silver observed that the pitchers
: (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5054)
: who’d taken part in the tournament had performed far worse to that point in
: the regular season than PECOTA had predicted, prior to Opening Day, that they
: would. The pitchers had posted a collective 5.08 ERA in over 1,000 innings
: compared to a projected mark of 4.10. Some of the difference was attributable
: to a higher-octane league-wide offensive environment than PECOTA had
: anticipated, but even after accounting for that discrepancy, the WBC pitchers
: ’ performance still stood out as particularly poor. Starting pitchers with
: WBC experience began the regular season with especially disappointing results
这恐惧来自有因。2006年的五月，在第一次WBC的不久之后，Nate Silver观察到：
参加WBC的选手的表现比起他们在PECOTA预测在常规时间准备开季的时候烂得多。
这些选手加起来丢了1000局，平均的ERA是5.08，比起预期的4.10还差。
有一些差异可以归咎在大联盟的攻击更强，但是经过数据调整后，
参加WBC的投手表现还是比较不理想的。
有参加WBC的先发投手，情况更是惨。
: No pitcher threw more than 17 innings in the 2006 tournament—in 2009, the
: high was 20—and pitch counts were strictly regulated. (In the 2013
: tournament, pitch counts will reportedly return to their 2006 maximums of 65
: pitches per game in the first round, 80 in the second round, and 95 in the
: semifinals and finals, after rising five pitches per round in the 2009
: event.) Given those light workloads, it seemed like a stretch to say that the
: WBC pitchers’ lousy start to the season as a group could be blamed entirely
: on overuse. Instead, Silver proposed an alternative explanation:
没有一个投手丢超过17局在2006年的WBC赛事，2009年最高20局，投球局数受严格限制。
(WBC投球限制的改变不翻)
这些少少的工作量，显示投手在WBC是在超量使用是根本不可能的。
所以Silver提出了另外一个可能解释：
: I think the problem is that the pitchers had been taken out of their
: routines. They didn't get to see their trainer, pitching coach, or manager
: for a couple of weeks, they weren't able to relax in the low-pressure
: environment of the Grapefruit or Cactus Leagues, and so forth. The pitcher
: may have been throwing in a relief role for his national club, when he hadn't
: done that in the major leagues in years. If a certain pitching coach doesn't
: like his pitcher to throw breaking stuff early in camp, or his manager wanted
: to pull him out after a high-effort inning, there wasn't the opportunity to
: play it safe. This is why I think that the starting pitchers have been
: disproportionately affected as compared to the relievers—starting pitchers
: are creatures of habit and routine.
问题可能出在投手从离开了他们习惯的时间行程。
他们有两周不能看见他们的训练员、教练、总教练，也不能在低强度的赛事里面放松。
投手有可能做一些不是在他们大联盟所习惯的事情：
例如要他们一开始就丢变化球，或者让他们马上丢长局数，这些都有可能不安全。
这也是为什么我认为SP比起RP有不成比例的影响，因为SP是习惯的动物。
: As worrisome as that article was, its findings were based on a fairly limited
: sample of performance—roughly one sixth of a season for 58 pitchers. Now we
: have much more data to go on: not just the rest of the 2006 season, but the
: entire 2009 season, too. So has the pattern of WBC pitchers struggling in the
: regular season persisted over time, or were the initial concerns overblown?
这件事情很令人担心，只是一开始样本有点小。
但是现在我们有了2006年跟2009年的数据，那我的推论应该不算有点夸张吧？
: To find out, we can generate “retro” projections for each pitcher who
: appeared in one of the World Baseball Classics and went on to pitch in the
: majors in the same season. Such a projection for, say, Felix Hernandez, who
: pitched in two games for Venezuela in the 2009 tournament, would tell us what
: his 2009 regular-season stats would have been projected by PECOTA to be,
: based on his pre-2009 performance and scaled to the 2009 major-league run
: environment. By comparing each pitcher’s pre-season projection with his
: actual performance, we can assess whether the group as a whole underperformed
: expectations.
为了找到答案，我们给每个参加WBC，也同时想要在当年度丢MLB的投手一个"过去"预测。
Felix Hernandez在2009年代表委内瑞拉丢了两场，
可是当年在MLB的表现跟预测起来的其实差不多。
但比较其他的投手的预测跟他们的实际表现，我们可以说他们的表现是低于本来预测的。