※ [本文转录自 MIN-Twins 看板 #1GgGRygc ]
作者: yankees21 (佐助) 看板: MIN-Twins
标题: [讨论] Joe Mauer: Catcher or Fetcher?
时间: Mon Nov 19 00:04:09 2012
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/joe-mauer-catcher-or-fetcher/
On a different website, I’ve made my opinions pretty clear: Joe Mauer should
not catch much longer. But luckily for most fantasy owners — myself included
— there seem to be no indications that the Twins will move Mauer off the
backstop position anytime soon. This season, Mauer graded out as the
third-best catcher at $17, trailing only NL stalwarts Buster Posey and Yadier
Molina, who incidentally finished first and fourth respectively in the MVP
balloting on the senior circuit.
And while it’s unclear, but almost certain that playing first base enabled
Mauer to have one of the healthiest seasons in his career, if a full-time
more were necessitated, first base may not be ideal. I do think the lessening
of the taxation on his lower hinges would possibly make him a better hitter,
but I don’t have scientific proof. My gut tells me he’d be something of an
in-his-prime John Olerud; that is, maybe not the classic first sacker, but a
damned good player to boot.
But why not move Mauer while he’s still in his prime? Why didn’t the Twins
explore him in other positions en route to two terrible seasons both this
year and last? In ways we can tangibly measure, Mauer’s performance behind
the plate is declining. Parker Hageman, one of the finest bloggers the Twins
universe can boast, has shown mechanically that Mauer just doesn’t quite
have it behind the plate like he once did. His motion behind the plate isn’t
as fluid, costing him precious milliseconds when it comes to nabbing
attempted base thieves, and it’s shown. Mauer peaked in 2007 in terms of
throwing out would-be base thieves at 53 percent; in 2012, he only threw out
a Pierzynskian 14 percent. So do you let Mauer wither away behind the plate,
with the possibility that each squat takes him past the place of no return,
and costing him leg strength and durability he’s going to need to be even
close to worth the $23 (redacted) million he’s owed through 2018 (age 35)?
Don’t shoot the messenger.
Let’s break down Mauer’s 2012. Twins fans were especially rough on Mauer
this season. Choruses of boos rang down from Target Field as Mauer ground
into 23 double plays. Of course, these fans failed to realize Mauer is a
ground ball hitter — 50.3 percent career rate — and that it takes two to
tango. Would it be better if Mauer grounded out with no one on base?
Apparently so.
But in all honesty, Mauer was downright terrific in 2012. You can obviously
logically deduce that no American League catcher was better — I won’t
insult your intelligence — but he also paced the AL in on-base percentage,
walked more than he whiffed, and came to the plate over 600 times. All-told,
it was a five-win season for Mr. Mauer, which essentially means he was
exactly worth what his contract would dictate, give or take. But good luck
telling that to the rubes.
As a brief aside, a fun/odd thing to see in Mauer’s batted-ball profile is
how his splits are to each field. When Mauer pulls the ball, he’s simply OK
(.306/.304/.415). When he shoots it up the middle, he hits .406/.404/.547,
which is pretty much outstanding. But get this: Mauer hits .429/.426/.636
(!!!) to the opposite field. I haven’t studied batted-ball profiles for many
hitters, but I have to believe Mauer is somewhat anomalous in this regard.
At this point, it seems Mauer is who he is. A shoot-the-gaps,
go-the-other-way hitter who will never seem quite as good as he actually is.
Even in today’s age, walks aren’t quite as sexy as they ought to be, and
neither are singles. Mauer provides them wholesale. On the fantasy side,
Mauer brings amazing batting averages — .323 career mark and STILL hit .287
in a brutal, injury-marred 2011 — plenty of walks (he really upped the ante
in this respect in 2012), and will pop enough extra-base hits to keep his
slugging percentage well above average. I fully expect, as long as he can
remain healthy, that he can replicate his career triple-slash
(.323/.405/.468) for at least another handful of years. Keeping him healthy
will be key.