http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/9/2/606066/scott-kazmir-examined
Scott Kazmir Examined
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
检察一下Scott Kazmir
Something that has flown under the radar for the Rays is the performance of
Scott Kazmir. The team is winning despite Kazmir's tRA sitting at 3.99, the
highest since 2005. Is there a reason for the young ace's regression, or is
it simply a hiccup in his promising career?
光芒队有一个浮上台面的警讯：Scott Kazmir的表现。尽管Kazmir的tRA稳坐3.99
，自2005年来最高，球队也一直赢球。 这位年轻王牌逐渐退化了吗，或只是在他亮丽
的生涯中跌了一跤？
Kazmir began this season on the disabled list with a left elbow strain. He
was removed on May 4th and made his first start in Boston going four innings
and allowing three earned runs along with three walks. Kazmir would go on a
run over his next 11 starts pitching 68 innings, allowing 47 hits, 25 walks,
6 homeruns, and striking 70 outs while going 7-2 and earning a spot on the
all-star team. In 10 starts since his relief appearance in the midsummer
classic Kazmir has went 54 innings, allowed 47 hits, 27 walks, 8 homeruns,
and struck out 65.
Kazmir本季从DL名单出发：因为左手肘扭伤。他在5月4日被移出伤兵名单，并在
波士顿投了第一场先发。4局就失了三分自责分，还附带三个保送。 接下来的11场先
发，总共投了68局，被打47支安打、6支全垒打，投出25次保送、70次三振。战绩7胜
2败，并在明星赛中众所瞩目。 自明星赛中继登场后的10场先发，Kazmir投了54局，
被打47支安打、8支全垒打，投出27次保送、65次三振。
Most casual fans are going to see Kazmir's 10-6 record, 3.13 ERA, and 1.227
WHIP and assume Kazmir is having the best season of his career, and he is,
for those statistics. However as we know those numbers don't tell the whole
or even half of the story. Kazmir's strikeout per nine rates is down from
10.41 to 9.97 and his walk rate is up from 3.88 to 3.92. He's giving up more
line drives and flyballs than ever and as a result more homeruns (one per
nine).
大部分的球迷看着Kazmir10胜6败的战绩，3.13ERA，与1.227的WHIP，都认为他
投出了生涯代表作。的确如此，如果只看这些数据的话。 但我们都知道这些数字只
揭露了不到一半的真相。 Kazmir的K/9比率从10.41跌到9.97，BB/9比率则从3.88攀
升至3.92。比起从前，他也被敲出了更多飞球与强劲平飞球，甚至更多全垒打(每九
局一支)。
Kazmir的武器
┌───┬────┬────┬───┬───┬────┬────┬────┐
│ 球种 │ X位移 │ Z位移 │ 初速 │投球数│ 百分比 │ 对右打 │ 对左打 │
│ │ (英吋)│ (英吋)│ (MPH)│ │ │ │ │
├───┼────┼────┼───┼───┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 速球 │ 5.92 │ 10.48 │ 92.68│ 1252 │ 76.81% │ 77.4% │ 74.16% │
├───┼────┼────┼───┼───┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 滑球 │ －0.4 │ 3.94 │ 83.07│ 182 │ 11.17% │ 7.88% │ 25.84% │
├───┼────┼────┼───┼───┼────┼────┼────┤
│变速球│ 7.46 │ 4.1 │ 79.43│ 196 │ 12.02% │ 14.71% │ 0% │
└───┴────┴────┴───┴───┴────┴────┴────┘
Stuff：速球是主要的武器，滑球 v.s 左打，变速球 v.s. 右打
To see if there was a noticeable change I went to the PitchF/x data. Kazmir
is throwing his fastball at 92.68 (92.91 last year) about 77% of the time
(69% last season) and throwing his slider and change less and slower (83 and
79 at about 11 and 12 percents respectively.) For actual break measurements,
Kazmir's slider is breaking in to righties slightly more but not breaking
down quite as much, making it more of a cutter and less of a slider, which
could help to explain his increase in foul percentage. Kazmir's change is
also breaking inside (to lefties) less but breaking down quite a bit more 4.1
this year compared to 5.75 last season.
我去查了PitchF/x的资料，看有没有值得注意的改变。Kazmir在77%的投球中，催出
92.68mph的速球(去年92.91mph)。不过他的滑球和变速球投得较少，球速也变慢。 (11%
是83mph的滑球，12%是79mph的变速球)。 在实际的测量中，Kazmir的滑球往右打者的水
平变化稍微多了一点，但往下的垂直变化却不如以往，变成一颗有Cutter味道的滑球。
这或许可以解释为何他被打界外球的比率提高了。 Kazmir的变速球往左打者内侧钻的变
化减少了，往下的变化却增加(今年垂直位移4.1，去年5.75)。
Kazmir is throwing the same amount of strikes as he did in prior seasons, and
more first pitch strikes, yet his average pitch total per plate appearance is
up to 4.3 some bit higher than 4.06 last season. Kazmir is getting a few more
strikes swinging and less strikes looking. Hitters are swinging at 50% of
Kazmir's pitches and 78% of his strikes (both increases by 2% over last
season) and making contact 74% of the time, which is again slightly up from
last season. Last season post-all star break Kazmir had an amazing run and
average nearly 15 swinging strikes and seven groundballs over his last 15
starts. Post all-star break this season Kazmir is averaging 12 swinging
strikes and five groundballs.
Kazmir仍然像上一季一样投出许多好球，也更常抢下第一个好球数。对每一名打者
的平均用球量，却从上一季的4.06，增加至今年的4.3。 Kazmir的好球更常被挥击了，
打者站着看球的比例减少。对于Kazmir的投球，打者有50%做出挥击，好球更有78%的被
挥击率(这两个数据都比上一季成长了2%)。被击中率也些微提升至74%。 上一季明星赛
后，Kazmir有令人惊异的表现：最后15次先发中，平均每场15次挥空、7个滚地球。 今
年明星赛后，Kazmir每场只有12次挥空、5个滚地球。
It's probably not time to worry because Kazmir is still a good pitcher, but
adjustments will need to be made if the Pitchf/x data is indeed correct.
Kazmir has to bring his pitches per plate appearance down in order to become
more efficient, in nearly 2,300 pitches Kazmir has gotten through 126.3
innings, Roy Halladay worked through 159.3 innings on roughly the same amount.
我们或许还用不着担心Kazmir这位好投手。但如果Pitchf/x的资料是对的，他可能
必须做一些调整。Kazmir必须降低他对每位打者的用球量，以达到节能减碳。2300次投
球中，Kazmir吃下了126.3局，但Roy Halladay却能吃下159.3局！