Technology turns even-handed
科技进展，良窳参半
Whatever the particular circumstances of a city, though, its vigour was
likely to be affected by technological change. Just as it was improvements in
farming that brought about the surpluses that made possible the first fixed
settlements, so it was improvements in transport that made possible the
development of trade on which the prosperity of so many cities depended. Other
technological changes made it possible to survive in a city. The Romans, for
instance, constructed aqueducts to bring fresh water to their towns and sewers
to provide sanitation.
一个城市无论是处于多么特殊的环境，它的活力泉源还是极有可能受到科技变化的影
响。如同畜牧技术的进步能获得多余的存粮，使圈养牲口得以成真一般；在运输上的进步
同样也能促进贸易发展，并带动城市依存的繁荣景况。而其他的科技变化也使得人们更容
易在城市里生存下去。以罗马为例，引水渠道位城市带来干净的水，下水道则提供了更好
的环境卫生。
But only the rich benefited. Most Romans, and many city-dwellers throughout
history, lived in squalor, and many died of it. Towns were crowded and insani-
tary; people were often malnourished; and disease spread fast. Though cities
grew in size and number for long periods, they could decline and fall, too.
Between 1000 and 1300 Europe’s urban population more than doubled, to about 70
million (thanks partly to a new system of crop rotation, made possible by better
tools). Then, with the Black Death, it fell by a quarter. Country people died
too, but the city-dwellers were especially vulnerable. Their health depended
above all on clean water and sanitation, which few had, and cheap soap and
medicines, which had yet to be invented.
但其实受益的却只有有钱人，历史上大部分的罗马居民都住在肮脏的环境中，许多人
不免死于其中。整个城镇既拥挤又污秽，人们往往营养不良，而疾病也散播得飞快。即便
城镇在规模及数量上成长了好一段时间，但仍有衰败和没落的一日。在西元1000年至1300
年的欧洲，人口成长超过了一倍之多，约有七千多万人(部份归功于较好的农耕机具，导致
了新的轮耕制度)。不过在那之后，黑死病的降临使人口锐减了四分之一。虽仍有人在乡下
病亡，不过城市居民还是最主要的受害份子。他们的健康仰赖干净的水与卫生环境，但却
少之又少；至于便宜的肥皂和药物，当时尚未发明。
Not surprisingly, the next big change in the development of the city also
turned on a leap in technology: the invention of engines and manufacturing
machinery. The Industrial Revolution did nothing at first to make urban life
easier, but it did provide jobs—lots of them. With the new factories of the
industrial age that began in the late 18th century was born an entirely new
urban era. Peasants left the land in their multitudes to live in new cities,
first in the north of England, then all over Europe and North America. By 1900,
13% of the world’s population had become urban.
并不意外的是，下个城市发展的大变迁同样抓稳了科技进程的跃进－－也就是内燃机
的发明与工业机械化。起先工业革命对城市生活的便利尚无影响，不过它确实提供了大多
数人的工作机会。随着十八世纪末制造业时期的新型厂房出现，一个崭新的都市纪元也就
宣告诞生。农夫们纷纷离开了原属的土地而展开新的城市生活，起先是在北英格兰，随后
遍及到整个欧洲及北美。1900年始，世界上的人口已有13%归在城市之列。
The latest leap, from 13% to 50% in just 107 years, also owes something to
science and technology: improvements in medicine, coupled with new knowledge
about ways to avoid disease, have enabled more and more people to live together
without succumbing as once they did to diarrhoea, tuberculosis, cholera and
other pestilences. The same developments, however, have similarly lengthened
lives in the countryside, leading to a huge increase in rural population. Human
ingenuity has not matched this increase with commensurate growth in rural
prosperity. As a result, ever more villagers have been upping sticks to seek a
better life in the city.
到最近一次的跃进，13%到50%不过是一百零七个年头；这得归功于某些科学与科技上
的成就：医药上的进步、疾病预防与新知识的结合、能让愈来愈多的人住在一起并免除受
到像腹泻、结核病、霍乱及恶性传染病的死亡威胁。这些发展同样延长了乡下人的寿命，
带来乡下人口的巨幅增加。但由于当地发展无法与人口成长达到同等的规模，结果就是更
多的乡下人必须离乡背景，到城市里去寻觅更好的生存环境。
The sheer scale and speed of the current urban expansion make it unlike any
of the big changes that have punctuated urban history. It mostly consists of
poor people migrating in unprecedented numbers, and then producing babies on a
similarly unprecedented scale. It is thus largely a phenomenon of poor and
middle-income countries; the rich world has put most of its urbanisation behind
it.
以目前的城市而言，其笔直上升的规模及扩张速率已非同小可，迥异于以往任何一件
足以在城市历史上留下的纪录。现代的城市多数是由穷人移民组成，况且数量是史无前例
地多，这环境下诞生的婴儿也是空前盛况。如此一来，在中低收入以下的国家，可说是蔚
为一大奇观；反观富有的地区丝毫不受这样的都市化影响。
In poor countries, though, the trend is set to continue. The United Nations
forecasts that today’s urban population of 3.2 billion will rise to nearly
five billion by 2030, when three out of five people will live in cities. The
increase will be most dramatic in the poorest and least-urbanised continents,
Asia and Africa. They are the ones least able to cope. Already over 90% of the
urban population of Ethiopia, Malawi and Uganda, three of the world’s most
rural countries, live in slums.
在贫困的国家，这样的态势恐怕还得继续下去。根据联合国的预测，今日32亿的都市
人口将会持续上升，在2030年前到达约50亿的数量，五人当中将有三人住在城市里头。增
幅最剧烈的地方则是最贫穷且缺乏都市化的两大洲，亚洲和非洲。这两大洲有着许多最不
易纾困的地区存在。像是在埃塞俄比亚、马拉威和乌干达这三个世界上最落后的国家，有超
过90%的都市居民是生活在贫民窟里。
Within 10 years the world will have nearly 500 cities of more than one
million people. Most of the newcomers will be absorbed in a metropolis of up to
five million people. But some will live in a megacity, defined as home to 10
million or more inhabitants. In 1950 only New York and Tokyo could claim to be
as big, but by 2020, says the UN, nine cities—Delhi, Dhaka, Jakarta, Lagos,
Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, São Paulo and Tokyo—will have more than 20
million inhabitants. Greater Tokyo already has 35 million, more than the entire
population of Canada.
在近十年内，世界上将增加约五百个人口超过一百万的都市。在这之中，大多数的新
兴城市又会合并成拥有五百万人口的都会区。不过还是有人将居住于那些超过千万人口的
大型城市中。在1950年时仅有纽约和东京能如此宣称，但在2020年以前，又将有九个城市
会超过两千万的居民，分别是德里(印度)、卡达(孟加拉)、雅加达(印尼)、拉哥斯(奈及利
亚)、墨西哥市(墨西哥)、孟买(印度)、纽约州(美国)、圣保罗(巴西)和东京都(日本)。东
京都会区已高达三千五百万人，比整个加拿大的人口都还要多。
The Megalopolis of the ancient world was in Arcadia, a part of Greece cited
by Virgil as a model of happy, rural simplicity. The cities that now go by that
generic name are far from Arcadian. Successful these places may be, if success
is measured by growth of population. But most are in poor countries and many,
if not most, of their inhabitants live in slums.
据古时维吉尔所述，当时有个位在阿尔卡笛亚的都会区，那是希腊一处美好且纯朴的
世外桃源。不过目前的城市与阿尔卡笛亚的典型已相去甚远。当今的城市荣景或许是成功
的，但得假若是由人口成长率来评量才行。何况这些城市大多是在贫穷国家，就算不是大
部分的居民，其中仍多得是待在贫民窟里的。
In the rich world, though, the city is undergoing very different changes.
Many of the new towns that flourished in the Industrial Revolution and the
manufacturing era that followed have been losing population. Even New York, for
so long the epitome of urban sophistication, went through a bad patch in the
1970s. Some cities retain their role as administrative centres, by virtue of
their political status. Some are still trading hubs, by virtue of their
geographical position. Some endure simply because they have reached an equilib-
rium. But others struggle.
回头看看富有的地区，这里的城市则是进行着完全不同的变革。许多在工业革命，及
随后的制造业时期繁荣兴起的城镇，也开始流失人口。即使是纽约州这个长久以来的都市
象征，也曾在1970年代经历过一段惨澹期。某些城市便借由政治上的权势与地位，以巩固
本身行政中心的角色。有些则靠着地理位置的优势，来维持原来贸易中心的繁茂。有些则
已达到平衡，也就容忍当前的情况。不过仍在挣扎的所在多有。
Of the traditional reasons for urban living, several (the presence of the
shrine, the proximity of food) have lost their importance. Some of what the
city provided (shops, factories) can now be offered in suburban malls or
industrial parks—or in low-cost urban rivals in the developing world. Security,
once one of the main reasons for huddling together, is often now more elusive
in the druggy streets of the metropolis than in the exurbs. And technology,
which has usually favoured urban progress, now enables people to work in rural
bliss on home computers. No wonder so many cities find that in order to
flourish they have to reinvent themselves.
基于贸易是都市生存的理由，许多城市已经丧失了他们的重要性(像是圣地的所在和靠
近食物来源)。一些城市所能提供的场所(如店舖和工厂)开始被郊区的量贩店和工业园区所
取代──或者是发展中国家的低成本的竞争对手。在治安上，要是提到一群人会聚在一块
的理由，往往能够在充斥毒品的都市暗巷里找到答案，而不是在纾旷身心的城外郊区，实
在是难以理解。至于那协助进步的科技推手，已使人们透过家用电脑，在仙境般的乡野间
进行工作。难怪会有如此多的城市发现，繁荣是来自于城市本身的再次创造。
Nearly all rich-country cities, whether prospering or declining, worry about
transport, pollution, energy, pockets of poverty and so on. These offer troubles
aplenty. But they are of a different order to those faced by poor-country
cities, whose problems are vastly greater and resources vastly smaller. While
rich cities fret over a relatively modest ebb and flow of population, poor
cities must cope with a tidal wave of migrants.
无论正值繁荣抑或衰退，几乎所有富足的城市都在担心诸如运输、污染、能源以及穷
人生计等等的问题，从中也衍生了相当多的麻烦。不过对于那些贫穷的城市来说，它们所
遇到的问题与前者是完全不同的层级，问题之大与资源之少可来得艰难多了。正当富足的
城市担忧著些微的经济衰退和人口泛滥的问题，穷困的城市也必得应付这汹涌至极的外移
人潮了。
So the history of the city has come to a fork—the diverging paths of rich
and poor, and the prospects for the city if the developing world can one day
clamber out of poverty. It’s interesting to look at the urban reality awaiting
the Dick Whittingtons of the 21st century.
于是城市的历史在此来到了岔路之上，也就是贫富之间的分歧，以及对发展中地区能
够脱离贫困的一份展望。着眼在当前等待二十一世纪的迪克‧威灵顿现身的都市现状来说
，实在是再有意思不过了。