COVID-19 Update: OECD revises global economic outlook;
Summit of the Americas latest trade show to be cancelled
by The Moodie Davitt Report News Room
3 March 2020
https://reurl.cc/1xjz2G
我会节录只跟航空有关及最新资料，原文请自行参照网址。
Announcing its results for 2019, Vienna Airport has said there is "high
uncertainty" on how much COVID-19 will impact its 2020 performance.
维也纳机场对于 COVID-19 影响自己 2020 的营运状况表示很难确认。
"A better assessment will be possible in four to six weeks," he added. "A
cost-cutting package to safeguard earnings will be introduced nevertheless.
From a historic point of view, such external shocks have only resulted in a
temporary reduction of growth."
四到六周后会有比较好的评定，但无论如何一定会有个为了维持营运而降低开销的腹案。
依照历史来看，这些外部的紧急状况通常会造成暂时的成长萎缩。
The latest data from flight analyser OAG shows that global scheduled airline
seat capacity from January to April has fallen by 40.8 million compared to
the same period last year.
跟去年比较，一至四月的座位数供给数少了四千零八十万个。
Chinese carriers have added 2.9 million scheduled seats (18,200 flights) back
into the mainland's domestic market, positive news from an industry
viewpoint. On the other hand, capacity to and from South Korea and Hong Kong
continues to decline. In Europe, capacity has fallen in northern Italy but
airlines are continuing to adjust their schedules, so this trend may yet
accelerate.
中国航空业有增加了一些国内座位 (290W) 需求回来，但韩国与香港的数字持续探低。
欧洲部分北义的状况造成了一些供给降低，但航空公司还在不断的修正班表，所以未必会
造成更大的异动。
https://www.moodiedavittreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OAG-mar-1.png
Of the 2.9 million scheduled seats returning to the Chinese market (week
commencing 2 March), all but 3,000 are on domestic services, led by China
Southern Airlines and China Eastern. OAG said that the dramatic capacity
recovery has led to low fares being made available as the Chinese government
seeks to ensure people can return home after the extended Lunar New Year
break.
南航与东航增加的 290W 座位数只有 3000 个是非国内线的。
但是这些航班是为了让国内的乘客能够在持续延长放假的春节后回家，票价十分低廉。
Against this, South Korea has seen a -21% reduction in capacity and Hong Kong
(SAR) a -22% slide; since 20 January, capacity has fallen by -71% in the Hong
Kong market alone.
就算中国座位数增加了，韩国 (-21%) 跟香港的座位供给数 (-71%) 下降也相对抵销了。
https://www.moodiedavittreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OAG-mar-2.png
这张表的供给数有提到台湾 (CT)，从 1/20 的 919,617 一路下滑到 3/2 的 426,408。
如果拿这两个数字来看，等于过了一个多月供给下降了 ~53.6%。
澳门的数字则是从 142,121 >> 34,495，也少了约七成六的运能。
OAG noted that Japan has been partially insulated by its strong domestic
market. ANA's capacity is down by -2.7% since 20 January and JAL by -5.3%
with minimal change in the last week. However, it said, for Cathay Pacific,
Korean Air, Asiana and Eva Airways further capacity cuts of more than -20% in
the last week reflect the severity of the situation being faced on a regional
那日本因为有强劲的国内线做支撑，安娜跟架鲁的座位供给分别只降了 2.7% 及 5.3%。
但国泰、大韩、韩亚跟长荣在过去的一星期都砍了约 20% 的运能。
编按：不过座位供给数并不等同实际乘载量。
In southeast Asia, the potential impact of COVID-19 on Indonesia – which
reported its first case this week – has yet to be played out. Lion Air,
Citilink Indonesia and Batik Air all added capacity in the last seven weeks.
Elsewhere, Singapore Airlines cut capacity by another -5% this week, and by
-12.5% since 20 January.
东南亚区域目前在印尼的状况尚未明朗，这星期才爆了第一起案例。狮航及其他的印尼籍
航空公司甚至在过去的七周内持续增加航班座位数。邻近的新航则是这星期再砍了 5% 运
能，资料显示自 1/20 以来已经砍了约 12.5%。
"Looking specifically at capacity from Milan this week shows a reduction of
some 25,500 seats across the four major airports with represents a -5%
reduction in capacity."
欧洲目前状况看起来是还好，但就针对米兰，区域的四座机场也少了约 25.5K 的座位数
，也就是大约 5% 的运能。
The total number of visitor arrivals in Hong Kong fell -52.7% year-on-year in
January to 3,207,802. Visitors from Mainland China were down -54.2% compared
to January 2019 at 2,536,768 and non-Mainland visitors dropped -46%
year-on-year at 671,034.
香港访客去年跟今年比较大概少了约 320W (-52.7%) 人次，其中中国访客少了约 253W
(-54.2%) 人次，其他访客则是约 67W (-46%)。
其中统计数有非常详细的资料，图档连结太长请自行移驾观看。
台湾访客少了 46.0% (短程市场市占最多)
日本访客少了 62.2%
韩国访客少了 77.7%
美国访客少了 35.0% (长程市场市占最多)
澳洲访客少了 35.5%
编按：香港旅客减少数量应该不单单只是肺炎的问题。
2 March
British Airways has told The Moodie Davitt Report it is reducing its
transatlantic and European service from 16-28 March in the wake of reduced
demand.
英航打算在三月中减少部分大西洋 (-12 班纽约) 跟欧洲内陆航班 (-194)。
One of the world's leading airport food & beverage operators, SSP Group, has
warned COVID-19 will have reduced overall group revenue for February by
between ￡10 million (US$12.58 million) and ￡12 million ($15.1 million).
The company added that operating profit for the month was likely to be
reduced by between ￡4 million (US$5.03 million) and ￡5 million (US$6.29
million).
其中一间专门做机场餐饮的 SSP 集团表示 COVID-19 将会减少二月的营收大约一千到一千
两百万英镑 (大约 3.8 到 4.6E NTD)，利润则是会减少四五百万英镑 (大约 1500-1900W
NTD)。
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has urged aviation
regulators worldwide to suspend the rules governing use of airport slots for
the 2020 season, due to the impact of COVID-19.
国际民航组织表示希望一些时间带紧绷的机场因应 COVID-19 暂时冻结时间带使用规定。
IAG, owner of British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus, is the latest
major airline group to warn about its business outlook as a result of
COVID-19. It said that cancellations related to the outbreak would reduce
flight capacity by 1-2% for the year.
IAG 集团示警将因 COVID-19 取消旗下航空公司今年约 1-2% 的运能。