※ 引述《antiyahoo (支那人没有一个是无辜的)》之铭言：
: 刚刚看到一篇paper
: 以目前情况看
: 恐怕将成为世界瘟疫
: PDF Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/vi
: ew
: Archive：https://archive.is/XCERo
: 主要总结：
: We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection to be s
: ignificantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indic
: ating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for i
: nfections to stop increasing.?
: We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identi
: fied , indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also refl
: ecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for
: this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authoriti
: es in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases i
: n Wuhan and other areas.
: If no change in control or transmission happens,When we expect further outbre
: aks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be
: exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. in 14 days’ tim
: e (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan
: to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We
: predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shangh
: ai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2
: 020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of impor
: ting infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, an
: d South Korea.
: Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikel
: y to be effective in halting transmission across China ; with a 99% effective
: reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be red
: uced by 24.9% on 4 February
: 希望蔡政府要果断一点……
Dear all, some Key warnings from Professor KY Yuen:
1)the key issue here is a VERY high attack rate in family cluster, 83% in fami
ly members who have been in Wuhan; this shows that 2019-nCoV can be a highly i
nfectious virus.
2. HK/Macau or other world cities could easily become another Wuhan or another
2003 Hong Kong.
3. The next few days (incubation period 3 to 6 days in our family cluster) cou
ld be the last window of opportunity to stop the infection from spreading by s
ilently infected mainlanders that crossed the border into HK/Macau SAR.
4. patients can be afebrile at the time of presentation, despite having radiol
ogical changes of viral pneumonia. They can still be shedding virus as evident
by positive RT-PCR in respiratory secretions. This makes the control by case
recognition very difficult.
5. person-to-person transmission can occur in hospital and home setting with i
ntercity spread (ie, from Wuhan to HK/Macau).
6. We should advocate “universal masking outside home” and “frequent alcoho
lic handrub” now before it is TOO LATE. There should be extension of Chinese
New Year holiday till the situation is stable to prevent returning mainland st
udents bringing virus into schools or universities.
7. We need to stock up diagnostic test kits, mask and other PPE, quarantine ar
eas, disinfectants, kaletra, ribavirin (low HCV oral dosing) and betaferon.
8. We must do everything now to delay or mitigate the epidemic till the increa
se of ambient temperature to 30 degree Celsius which hampers the environmental
survival of this novel coronavirus.
Our situation is NOT good. Need to see what happens in the next 14 days
Warmest regards.
HKU microbiologist 袁医师内部的警告信
希望政府可以认真看待