刚刚看到一篇paper
以目前情况看
恐怕将成为世界瘟疫
PDF Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/vi
ew
Archive：https://archive.is/XCERo
主要总结：
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection to be s
ignificantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indic
ating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for i
nfections to stop increasing.?
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identi
fied , indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also refl
ecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for
this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authoriti
es in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases i
n Wuhan and other areas.
If no change in control or transmission happens,When we expect further outbre
aks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be
exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. in 14 days’ tim
e (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan
to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We
predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shangh
ai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2
020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of impor
ting infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, an
d South Korea.
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikel
y to be effective in halting transmission across China ; with a 99% effective
reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be red
uced by 24.9% on 4 February
希望蔡政府要果断一点……