1.来源连结:
CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101147338
(英文新闻应该可以吧?)
2.内容:
30% correction coming for Hong Kong housing: Barclays
After years of breakneck advances, Hong Kong's property prices may be headed
for a correction of as much as 30 percent, analysts said.
"The Hong Kong property market is about to enter its first real downturn
since 1998," Paul Louie and Zita Qin, analysts at Barclays, said in a note.
While the market consensus is expecting a property price correction of around
15 percent, triggered by higher interest rates, Barclays' analysts point to
other catalysts, including household income growth stalling, rents hitting
the income ceiling, supply exceeding demand and developers speeding up
presales.
"With home prices up 111 percent since end-2008, we believe there is
significant scope for owners to take profit on their property holdings," they
said, initiating the Hong Kong property sector with a "negative" view and
downgrading its Asia ex-Japan real estate industry view to "negative" from
"neutral."
They expect home prices to drop by at least 30 percent by the end of 2015,
with knock-on effects on commercial property sending office prices down 20
percent and retail properties with zero growth.
"Past cycles have shown that the housing, retail and office markets are
highly correlated. As home prices decline, we expect retail property to be
affected by the potential negative wealth effect on local consumption, with a
secondary knock-on effect affecting office rental demand," the report said.
3.心得或感想:
(后面还有很多内容,就不贴了,有兴趣请点网址看)
新闻内容是Barclays和Deutsche Bank都预测香港房市未来会修正
理由包括了利率提高、薪资停滞、租金无法提升、供过于求、以及建商加速预售等等
此外也提到了最近有建商主动降价,被认为是下跌的讯号
(搜寻了一下是"新鸿基"的天玺)
因为个人对香港房市不熟悉,所以想来请教一下各位对这篇报导的看法
请问有在接触香港房市的板友,真的如报导所说的有下跌的前兆了吗
如果有,大家预测修正幅度会是多少呢?
(台湾和香港各项条件不尽相同,这里没有要讨论与台湾房市的相关性)