Tesla Model 3的产量进度和组装品质一直不如车厂预期，
去年Tesla原本计画到了2017年底，每周要生产5000辆Model 3，
但是即使到了今天，每周也只有生产1214辆，进度大幅不如预期。
根据Bernstein Research的研究报告，这是因为Tesla过度追求机器人自动化生产所致
，让Tesla Model 3的生产进度、成本和组装品质都被过度自动化给严重拖累了。
Bernstein的报告认为Tesla的自动化生产线，野心太大、风险太高、太过复杂。
美国老牌汽车杂志Car & Driver的试驾报导也说，Model 3的组装品质不如预期。
"the questionable build quality we've learned to expect."
(图) Tesla Model 3 每周生产量统计图，这个星期已达生产1214辆。
https://i.imgur.com/QQMQrrG.jpg
(source: Bloomberg)
(图14) 自动化程度与生产成本关系曲线图
https://i.imgur.com/Nz8zUug.jpg
生产线上，使用人工与机器人自动化生产的各种不同比例，就会导致不同的生产成本。
图中可以看到，
如果过度使用机器人，在超过最佳化的平衡点之后，汽车的生产成本反而会急剧升高，
车厂就要烧掉很多钱。
According to the Bernstein analysts Max Warburton and Toni Sacconaghi,
it's the robots that can't pump out Tesla's highly anticipated Model 3s
fast enough. The whole process is too ambitious, risky, and complicated.
......
分析师Max Warburton，他在进入华尔街金融界之前，
曾经在MIT的一个半学术、半商业的机构里工作过，
他写了一篇“自动化在最终组装生产线并不可行”的报告。
这份Bernstein的报告还提到，
日本车厂会想去限缩自动化机器人的使用，
因为 1. 自动化的成本昂贵
2. 统计显示，自动化程度跟生产品质高低成反比关系。
Warburton, who spent his career before Wall Street at the International
Motor Vehicle Program — a partly academic, partly commercial organization
based at MIT — wrote that "automation in final assembly doesn't work."
Bernstein adds that the world's best carmakers, the Japanese, try to
limit automation because it "is expensive and is statistically inversely
correlated to quality." Their approach is to get the process right first,
then bring in the robots — the opposite of Musk's.
====
以下是Bernstein Research研究报告，部份内容的简译
Tesla大量采购Kuka机器人，使用在自动化组装生产线上，结果就遇到麻烦了。
而Tesla在自动化的焊接以及电池组生产过程也有类似的问题。
"It has ordered huge numbers of Kuka robots. It has not only automated
stamping, paint and welding (as most other OEMs do) — it has also tried
to automate final assembly (putting parts into the car). It talks of two-level
final lines with robots automating parts sequencing. This is where Tesla seems
to be facing problems (as well as in welding & battery pack assembly)."
从图14可以看到，
在超过最佳的人工/机器的比例之后，过度去提高自动化反而会拉高整体成本。
自动化的问题在于成本贵、缺乏使用弹性和效率，还有(组装)品质不佳。
Excessive automation actually raises costs beyond a point, as Exhibit 14,
from academics Gorlech and Wessel tries to explain. The problem is automation
is expensive — and usually proves far less effective, highly inflexible
and creates quality problems further down the line.
Tesla的生产太过自动化，又欠缺人工的帮忙辅助，这就造成前档玻璃、引擎盖、车门
...等等的组装品质问题。
In welding, mistakes and inconsistencies go unrecognized — but the machine
powers on and builds cars with the wrong geometry or bad spot welds in key
locations. These are only found later — when for instance the windscreen
is inserted, or a door re-attached. Have you wondered why Tesla doors don't
align, or hoods don't fit, or windscreens are prone to cracking?
Now you have your answer.
In final assembly, robots can apply torque consistently — but they don't
detect and account for threads that aren't straight, bolts that don't quite
fit, fasteners that don't align or seals that have a defect. Humans are really
good at this. Have you wondered why Teslas have wind noise problems,
squeaks and rattles and bits of trim that fall off? Now you have your answer.
反观Toyota的“精益生产”哲学，很重视人力的参与、人工检查的价值、
人工和机器的平衡。
(注:精益(精实)生产 Lean Production 或称丰田式生产 Toyota Production System)
他们会把权力放给生产线上的人、看重人的决策能力、人的创意。
结果就是机器人少一点、复杂的处理系统少一点、存放的车体零件少一点、
产线的排队顺序少一点，
成本开销就会少一点，而生产力和品质还会更棒。
Anyone familiar with automobile assembly likely knows this.
It's common knowledge that Japanese OEMs are incredibly careful about
what they automate. The principles of lean production emphasize human
involvement and the value of human checks and balances.
Automation is, in many ways, contrary to the principles of lean production.
Lean production — or the Toyota Production System to be more specific
— focuses on human empowerment, human decision making and human ingenuity.
Lean factories typically have less automation not more. Fewer robots.
Fewer complicated handling systems. Fewer body stores. Fewer queues.
Less spending, And better productivity and quality.
(图) 报告作者 Max Warburton之前曾在汽车产业研究机构工作过
https://images2.imgbox.com/63/64/odHsdroT_o.jpg
(图) 报告作者 Toni Sacconaghi
https://images2.imgbox.com/92/29/CFYMnaoQ_o.jpg
◇◇◇◇
(图) Tesla股东投票通知书
https://i.imgur.com/qviRzIl.jpg
https://images2.imgbox.com/33/aa/nAWOTdEa_o.jpg
https://images2.imgbox.com/27/3c/MEYLWzuJ_o.jpg
==心得==
就产品本身而言，Model 3是物有所值的好车，也是Tesla成长茁壮的重要关键，
对于一个好产品，最重要的是要赶上生产进度，顾好生产品质。
跟众筹集资不同的是，一家有良心的股票上市公司应该要以股东的权益为首要考量，
生产Model 3的过程也要稳扎稳打，先追求产量和品质，尔后再讲求高科技生产自动化
，不该拿小股东辛苦的投资钱开玩笑。
出处
机器人正在杀死Tesla
The robots are killing Tesla
https://is.gd/zzq7kq
Tesla's Model 3 problems reveal a hidden cost in electric cars
https://is.gd/JuX2rm
Model 3 的电池组的生产自动化程度远比Model S高。
Battery production for the mass-market Model 3 will be far more automated
than it has been for Tesla's previous vehicles, the Model S and the Model X.
[金融时报] 马斯克26亿美元薪酬方案遭股东服务集团反对
https://is.gd/6zLEZe
为股东提供咨询服务的机构股东服务集团(Institutional Shareholder Services)
全力反对Elon Musk创纪录的26亿美元薪酬方案。
两周后，特斯拉的股东们将就该方案投票表决。