JTWC 第5报
Typhoon CHANTHU
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 07, 2021:
Location: 16.1°N 135.7°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: N/A
JTWC 第5报路径图:https://i.imgur.com/WzfEuHr.gif
GFS 0700Z 系集:https://i.imgur.com/5wpaeR5.png
EC 0700Z 系集:https://i.imgur.com/EvL2OZy.png
风切图:https://i.imgur.com/BQAiB53.gif
辐散图:https://i.imgur.com/QihQd1i.gif
海温图:https://i.imgur.com/pBgMTXn.png
01.JTWC 对璨树目前所处环境给了 Highly Favorable (非常好)的评价
02.模式们对璨树未来48小时的路径看法没有明显分歧。但是对于
璨树48小时之后的路径没有共识。当璨树在台湾附近时,一派认为沿台湾东部北上
,另一派则认为璨树会往台湾南部前进。
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST THROUGH TAU
48 IS HIGH, WITH A 100NM SPREAD OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS AT TAU 48. GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE EQUATORWARD TRACK, BUT
OVERALL ALL MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48.
THEREAFTER THINGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. AT TAU 96, THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM AND HWRF TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF TAIWAN, WHILE THE UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE, ECMWF AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
TAIWAN, LEADING TO A 430NM SPREAD AT TAU 48.