Ida快速增强,己经达到飓风等级,目前强度为70KTS,约
中台下限。
https://i.imgur.com/lRUIplm.gif
https://i.imgur.com/pv0sexe.gif
墨西哥湾的高海温、潮湿空气和低风切十分有利于Ida发展
Ida很有可能在登陆之前增强至120KTS,约中台上限的强度。
另外,Ida的风场也将持续扩大。
海温图:https://i.imgur.com/LIRGary.png
风切图:https://i.imgur.com/4WCRaXK.gif
辐散图:https://i.imgur.com/PdDnnk0.gif
The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will be moving throu
gh a very favorable oceanic and
atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content
waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level
atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact,
with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has
significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance
now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly
calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours,
which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM
model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated
by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near
the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and
LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are
possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in
strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind
field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a
result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and
powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast
by late this weekend and early next week.