WTPQ20 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 15.4N 157.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 16.9N 153.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300000UTC 17.7N 149.7E 95NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 310000UTC 18.4N 145.5E 130NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 010000UTC 19.8N 141.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
120HF 020000UTC 21.7N 138.8E 290NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT =
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JMA初报分析资料全文
WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (JEBI) STATUS. TS JEBI IS
LOCATED AT 15.4N, 157.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
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定位资料
JTWC JMA
2518082606 11.6N 161.3E 15 TD
2518082612 11.8N 160.8E 15 TD
2518082618 12.0N 160.3E 20 TD
2518082700 12.4N 159.8E 20 TD
2518082706 13.4N 159.0E 25 TD
2518082712 14.1N 158.7E 30 TD 18082712 13.6N 158.9E 30 TD
18082715 13.9N 158.5E 30 TD
2518082718 14.7N 158.2E 30 TD 18082718 14.6N 157.9E 30 TD
18082721 14.8N 157.5E 30 TD
2518082800 15.5N 157.0E 35 TS 18082800 15.4N 157.0E 35 TS
18082803 15.8N 156.6E 40 TS
2518082806 16.2N 156.2E 35 TS 18082806 16.2N 156.3E 40 TS
18082809 16.3N 156.1E 40 TS
2518082812 16.6N 155.3E 40 TS 18082812 16.6N 155.6E 40 TS
18082815 16.7N 154.9E 40 TS
2518082818 16.9N 154.2E 50 TS 18082818 16.7N 154.4E 50 STS
18082821 16.8N 154.1E 50 STS
2518082900 17.0N 153.4E 55 TS 18082900 17.0N 153.5E 55 STS
18082903 17.1N 152.8E 60 STS
2518082906 17.1N 152.3E 65 TY C1 18082906 17.3N 152.3E 65 TY
18082909 17.3N 152.0E 70 TY
2518082912 17.3N 151.1E 70 TY C1 18082912 17.3N 151.4E 70 TY
18082915 17.4N 151.0E 70 TY
2518082918 17.4N 150.3E 90 TY C2 18082918 17.4N 150.5E 80 TY
18082921 17.6N 149.9E 80 TY
2518083000 17.6N 149.1E 95 TY C2 18083000 17.6N 149.1E 80 TY
18083003 17.5N 148.7E 80 TY
2518083006 17.7N 148.1E 100 TY C3 18083006 17.7N 148.1E 85 TY
18083009 17.7N 147.4E 85 TY
2518083012 17.7N 146.8E 110 TY C3 18083012 17.8N 146.9E 85 TY
18083015 17.9N 146.1E 90 TY
2518083018 17.8N 145.4E 140 STY C5 18083018 17.8N 145.4E 100 TY
18083021 17.8N 144.8E 100 TY
2518083100 17.9N 144.1E 145 STY C5 18083100 17.9N 144.2E 105 TY
18083103 18.1N 143.5E 105 TY
2518083106 18.2N 142.7E 150 STY C5 18083106 18.3N 142.7E 105 TY
18083109 18.3N 142.2E 105 TY
2518083112 18.5N 141.5E 150 STY C5 18083112 18.5N 141.5E 105 TY
18083115 18.7N 140.9E 105 TY
2518083118 19.1N 140.2E 150 STY C5 18083118 19.1N 140.3E 105 TY
18083121 19.3N 139.7E 105 TY
2518090100 19.6N 139.2E 140 STY C5 18090100 19.6N 139.2E 105 TY
18090103 19.9N 138.8E 105 TY
2518090106 20.4N 138.3E 135 STY C4 18090106 20.4N 138.3E 105 TY
18090109 20.7N 137.8E 105 TY
2518090112 21.0N 137.4E 135 STY C4 18090112 21.0N 137.3E 105 TY
18090115 21.4N 136.9E 105 TY
2518090118 21.8N 136.6E 130 STY C4 18090118 21.8N 136.5E 100 TY
18090121 22.2N 136.2E 100 TY
2518090200 22.7N 135.8E 115 TY C4 18090200 22.5N 135.8E 95 TY
18090203 23.2N 135.4E 95 TY
2518090206 23.7N 135.0E 110 TY C3 18090206 23.7N 135.0E 95 TY
18090209 24.2N 134.8E 95 TY
2518090212 24.5N 134.4E 110 TY C3 18090212 24.5N 134.4E 95 TY
18090215 25.0N 134.2E 95 TY
2518090218 25.5N 133.8E 95 TY C2 18090218 25.5N 133.8E 95 TY
18090221 25.9N 133.6E 95 TY
2518090300 26.4N 133.1E 100 TY C3 18090300 26.6N 133.2E 90 TY
18090303 26.9N 132.8E 90 TY
2518090306 27.4N 132.5E 95 TY C2 18090306 27.5N 132.6E 85 TY
18090309 28.0N 132.5E 85 TY
2518090312 28.6N 132.6E 90 TY C2 18090312 28.6N 132.6E 85 TY
18090315 29.4N 132.6E 85 TY
2518090318 30.3N 132.8E 80 TY C1 18090318 30.3N 132.8E 85 TY
18090321 31.3N 133.3E 85 TY
2518090400 32.3N 133.6E 75 TY C1 18090400 32.4N 133.9E 85 TY
18090403 33.8N 134.6E 85 TY
2518090406 35.3N 135.9E 65 TY C1 18090406 35.6N 135.7E 75 TY
18090409 37.1N 136.5E 65 TY
2518090412 38.9N 137.7E 55 TS 18090412 38.7N 138.2E 65 TY
18090415 40.9N 138.8E 65 TY
========FINAL======WARNING======== 18090418 43.2N 140.0E 60 STS
18090421 44.8N 140.5E 60 STS
18090500 47.0N 139.0E