TCFA TEXT
WTPN21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 160.3E TO 17.4N 155.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY
885 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
262335Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 262235Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES
AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS AROUND THE LLCC.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN
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TC WARNING TEXT 01
GRAPHIC:
WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZAUG2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY