原文标题：
Bank earnings, retail sales: What to know this week
银行收益，零售额：本周须知
原文连结：
https://reurl.cc/E2yyLK
发布时间：
Mon, April 12, 2021, 12:20 AM·
原文内容：
A deluge of corporate earnings results and economic data due for release this
week will test investors after the stock market's latest record-setting
rally.
Traders have been pricing in the likelihood of a rebound in corporate
earnings to coincide with the recent batch of better-than-expected economic
data. Another round of firming economic data is expected this week, with the
effects of the latest round of fiscal stimulus and recent roll-back of more
social distancing restrictions bolstering economic activity.
First-quarter corporate earnings likely benefited from this firming economic
backdrop. Over the last several months, analysts have raised their aggregate
S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by a record 6.0%, according to
FactSet data.
And first-quarter earnings season will kick off with quarterly reports from
the big banks, which have seen some of the sharpest upward revisions to
profit estimates. In fact, the financial sector saw the second-largest
increase in bottom-up EPS estimates of all 11 sectors in the S&P 500,
according to FactSet, coming second only to the energy sector. Financials'
EPS estimates were revised up by 13.1%, which marked the second-largest
quarterly increase for the sector since FactSet started tracking the metric
in 2002.
The rosier outlook for bank profits coincided with a sharp move higher in
Treasury yields as expectations for economic growth increased. The benchmark
10-year Treasury yield has advanced by more than 70 basis points for the
year-to-date, with highest interest rates helping to boost the income banks
derive from their core lending businesses. The S&P 500 financials sector has
gained more than 18% for the year-to-date, or double the return of the
broader market of the broader market, as the recent rotation into cyclical
shares with earnings levered to a strong economic rebound lifted banking
stocks.
The banks reporting quarterly earnings results this week — including
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan
Stanley (MS) – will likely already reflect a bottom-line boost from this
higher-rate environment. Big banks' first-quarter results will also likely
get another boost from trading activity, given the stock markets
record-setting rally and volatility in the bond markets so far this year.
Fixed-income trading revenues already rose by the most in at least a decade
across the bond trading divisions at Goldman Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley,
JPMorgan and Bank of America last quarter, according to an Axios analysis.
However, with the latest rise in rates now well known and priced in by
investors, the next leg higher for bank stocks will likely require a new
driver, said Deutsche Bank analyst Matt O'Connor. And last week, cyclical
sectors already lost some momentum, as steadying rates prompted a resurgence
in technology and growth stocks.
"The next big catalyst for bank stocks is likely to be the return of loan
growth. Many view loan growth as one of the biggest long-term drivers of bank
earnings and of higher quality than the boost from higher interest rates,"
O'Connor wrote in a recent note. "Loans are coming in weaker than expected in
1Q... and may be sluggish again in 2Q given likely further deleveraging from
fiscal stimulus (and tax returns) and as [the] COVID-19 vaccine rollout will
take a good portion of the quarter (likely pushing the expected surge of
investment into 3Q or even 4Q)."
"But, we are confident loan growth will pick up and expect a sharp rise in 4Q
given a likely robust holiday season, closing of acquisitions and hopefully
investment by companies to expand and take advantage of what should be a
multi-year economic expansion," he said.
Major sources of loan growth will likely come from both consumer spending
during the post-pandemic recovery, and from businesses looking to ramp up
deal-making activity and corporate investment as uncertainty around the
pandemic diminishes.
Retail sales
A key print on consumer spending will be released on Thursday, with
consumption poised to get a boost from the delivery of stimulus checks and
warming spring weather.
Consensus economists expect the Commerce Department's March retail sales
report to show a monthly gain of 5.4% in March, according to Bloomberg data.
This would follow a 3% drop in sales in February, as inclement weather and
diminishing effects from the January round of $600 stimulus checks weighed on
the month-over-month change in spending. Still, retail sales remained higher
by 6.3% in February over the same month in 2020, with consumer spending one
of the areas of the economy to bounce back fastest to pre-pandemic levels.
"The latest round of stimulus checks, $1,400 per qualified individual
totaling $410 billion, started to go out in mid-March, supporting another
surge in spending," Nomura economist Lewis Alexander wrote in a note Friday.
"For non-core components, credit card data for food service spending suggests
a sharp acceleration as warmer temperatures swept across the U.S. and state
and local governments eased restrictions on activity."
"Beyond March, spending should continue to be supported by reopening and
continued stimulus check disbursement," he added. "That said, in the months
ahead, there could be at least some modest payback following the
stimulus-driven surge in spending, similar to the January-February period."
According to Bank of America, the March retail sales report could post an
even faster gain than consensus economists are anticipating.
"Based on aggregated BAC card data, retail sales ex-autos increased 11.1%
[month-over-month] in March, showing the impact of stimulus, reopening and
better weather," economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. "This should set
up for a very strong Census Bureau report; indeed, we see upside for Census
even relative to our 11% growth rate."
During the seven days ended March 20, Bank of America credit and debit card
spending surged 45% over the same period last year and 23% over the same
timeframe in 2019, which the firm attributed largely to the disbursement of
stimulus checks. Recent card spending data from JPMorgan Chase corroborated
these trends: Spending on Chase cards was up about 24% year-over-year during
the seven days ending March 19, accelerating from growth rates of less than
10% in January.
Economic calendar
Monday: Monthly budget statement, March (-$720.0 billion expected, -$310.9
billion in February)
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, March (98.0 expected, 95.8 in
February); Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month, March (0.5% expected,
0.4% in February); CPI excluding food and energy month-over-month, March
(0.2% expected, 0.1% in February); CPI year-over-year, March (2.5% expected,
1.7% in February); CPI excluding food and energy year-over-year, March (1.5%
expected, 1.3% in February); Real average weekly earnings year-over-year,
March (4.1% in February); Real average hourly earnings year-over-year, March
(3.4% in February)
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 9 (-5.1% during prior week);
Import price index, month-over-month, March (1.0% expected, 1.3% in
February); Import price index, year-over-year, March (3.0% in February);
Export price index, month-over-month, March (1.0% expected, 1.6% in
February); Export price index, year-over-year, March (5.3% in February);
Federal Reserve releases Beige Book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended April 10 (700,000 expected,
744,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended April 3 (3.700
million expected, 3.734 million during prior month); Retail sales advance
month-over-month, March (5.1% expected, -3.0% in February); Retail sales
excluding autos and gas, March (6.5% expected, -3.3% in February); Empire
Manufacturing Index, April (18.0 expected, 17.4 in March); Philadelphia fed
Business Outlook index, April (2.7% expected, -2.2% in March); Industrial
production, month-over-month, March (2.7% expected, -2.2% in February);
Capacity Utilization, March (75.6% expected, 73.8% in February); Business
inventories, February (0.5% expected, 0.3% in January); NAHB Housing Market
Index, April (84 expected, 82 in March); Total Net TIC Flows, February
($106.3 billion in January); Net long-term TIC flows, February ($90.8 billion
in January)
Friday: Housing Starts, March (1.602 million expected, 1.421 million in
February); Building permits, March (1.750 million expected, 1.720 million in
February); University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, April
preliminary (89.0 expected, 84.9 in March)
Earnings calendar
Monday: N/A
Tuesday: Fastenal Co (FAST) before market open
Wednesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bed
Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open
Thursday: Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Truist Financial Corp
(TFC), The Progressive Corp (PGR), US Bancorp (USB), UnitedHealth Group
(UNH), PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), BlackRock (BLK), Rite Aid (RAD),
Citigroup (C) before market open; Alcoa (AA) after market close
Friday: Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), PNC Financial
Services Group (PNC), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Citizens Financial Group
(CFG), State Street Corp (STT), Ally Financial (ALLY) before market open
机翻如下：
本周将公布的大量企业财报和经济数据将在股市最新创纪录的反弹之后考验投资者。
交易员一直在为企业盈利反弹的可能性定价，以配合最近一批高于预期的经济数据。预计
本周将有另一轮坚挺的经济数据，最新一轮财政刺激政策的效果和近期取消更多的社交距
离限制将支撑经济活动。
第一季度企业盈利很可能受益于这种坚挺的经济背景。据FactSet数据显示，在过去几个
月里，分析师将标普500指数的每股收益(EPS)总预期上调了6.0%，创下历史新高。
而第一季度财报季将以大银行的季报拉开序幕，这些银行的利润预期上调幅度最大。事实
上，根据FactSet的数据，在标普500指数所有11个行业中，金融行业的EPS预期自下而上
的上调幅度位居第二，仅次于能源行业。金融板块的每股收益预期上调了13.1%，这是自
FactSet在2002年开始追踪该指标以来该板块第二大季度涨幅。
在银行利润前景较为乐观的同时，由于对经济增长的预期增强，国债收益率大幅走高。10
年期国债收益率年初至今已走高超过70个基点，最高利率有助于提升银行从核心贷款业务
中获得的收入。标普500金融板块年初至今涨幅超过18%，或为大盘大盘回报率的两倍，因
近期轮动到盈利受经济强劲反弹影响的周期股，提振银行股。
本周公布季度财报的银行