※ 引述《mywade (mywade)》之铭言：
: ※ 引述《CavendishJr (梅西♡)》之铭言：
: : 原文标题：彭博：拜登推下个经济计画 将搭配1993年来最大加税案
: : (请勿删减原文标题)
: : 原文连结：
: : https://bit.ly/3tkWi62
有点震撼，所以去找英文确认一下
https://reurl.cc/3NMkAl
Biden Eyes First Major Tax Hike Since 1993 in Next Economic Plan
(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden is planning the first major federal tax
hike since 1993 to help pay for the long-term economic program designed as a
follow-up to his pandemic-relief bill, according to people familiar with the
matter.
Unlike the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus act, the next initiative, which is
expected to be even bigger, won’t rely just on government debt as a funding
source. While it’s been increasingly clear that tax hikes will be a
component — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said at least part of the
next bill will have to be paid for, and pointed to higher rates — key
advisers are now making preparations for a package of measures.
With each tax break and credit having its own lobbying constituency to back
it, tinkering with rates is fraught with political risk. That helps explain
why tax hikes since Bill Clinton’s signature 1993 overhaul stands out from
the modest modifications done since.
For the Biden administration, the planned changes are an opportunity not just
to fund key initiatives like infrastructure, climate and expanded help for
poorer Americans, but also to address what Democrats argue are inequities in
the tax system itself. The plan will test both Biden’s capacity to woo
Republicans and Democrats’ ability to remain unified.
“His whole outlook has always been that Americans believe tax policy needs
to be fair, and he has viewed all of his policy options through that lens,”
said Sarah Bianchi, head of U.S. public policy at Evercore ISI and a former
economic aide to Biden. “That is why the focus is on addressing the unequal
treatment between work and wealth.”
While the White House has rejected an outright wealth tax, as proposed by
progressive Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, the administration’s
current thinking does target the wealthy.
The White House is expected to propose a suite of tax increases, mostly
mirroring Biden’s 2020 campaign proposals, according to four people familiar
with the discussions.
The tax hikes included in any broader infrastructure and jobs package are
likely to include repealing portions of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax
law that benefit corporations and wealthy individuals, as well as making
other changes to make the tax code more progressive, said the people familiar
with the plan.
The following are among proposals currently planned or under consideration,
according to the people, who asked not to be named as the discussions are
private:
Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%Paring back tax preferences for
so-called pass-through businesses, such as limited-liability companies or
partnershipsRaising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than
$400,000Expanding the estate tax’s reachA higher capital-gains tax rate for
individuals earning at least $1 million annually. (Biden on the campaign
trail proposed applying income-tax rates, which would be higher)
An independent analysis of the Biden campaign tax plan done by the Tax Policy
Center estimated it would raise $2.1 trillion over a decade, though the
administration’s plan is likely to be smaller. Bianchi earlier this month
wrote that congressional Democrats might agree to $500 billion.
The overall program has yet to be unveiled, with analysts penciling in $2
trillion to $4 trillion. No date has yet been set for an announcement, though
the White House said the plan would follow the signing of the Covid-19 relief
bill.
An outstanding question for Democrats is which parts of the package need to
be funded, amid debate over whether infrastructure ultimately pays for itself
— especially given current borrowing costs, which remain historically low.
Efforts to make the expanded child tax credit in the pandemic-aid bill
permanent — something with a price tag estimated at more than $1 trillion
over a decade — could be harder to sell if pitched as entirely debt-financed.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say…
“The next major legislative initiative, infrastructure investment, could
provide the sort of durable economic gains that not only support higher pay,
but promote diffusion of those gains across demographic lines and political
persuasions.”
–Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger, U.S. economists
For the full report, click here
Democrats would need at least 10 Republicans to back the bill to move it
under regular Senate rules. But GOP members are signaling they are prepared
to fight.
“We’ll have a big robust discussion about the appropriateness of a big tax
increase,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said last month,
predicting Democrats would pursue a reconciliation bill that forgoes the GOP
and would aim for a corporate tax even higher than 28%.
Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways & Means Committee, said, “
There seems to a be a real drive to tax investment of capital gains at
marginal income rates,” and called that a “terrible economic mistake.”
While about 18% of the George W. Bush administration’s tax cuts were allowed
to expire in a 2013 deal, and other legislation has seen some increases in
levies, 1993 marks the last comprehensive set of increases, experts say. That
bill passed on a two-vote margin in the House and required the vice president
to break a tie in the Senate.
“I don’t think it is an understatement to say the current partisan
environment is more severe than 1993” said Ken Kies, managing director of
the Federal Policy Group, a former chief of staff of the congressional Joint
Committee on Taxation. “So you can draw your own conclusions” about
prospects for a deal this year, he said.
Still, there could be some tax initiatives Republicans could get behind. One
is a shift from a gasoline tax to a vehicle-miles-traveled fee to help fund
highway projects.
Read More: By-the-Mile Vehicle Tax to Help Fund Infrastructure Gains Steam
Another is more money for Internal Revenue Service enforcement — a way to
boost revenue without raising rates. Estimates have found that for every
additional $1 spent on IRS audits, the agency brings in an additional $3 to
$5.
Democrats are also looking to revise tax laws that they say don’t do enough
to stop U.S. companies from shifting jobs and profits offshore as another way
to raise revenue, one aide said. Republicans could potentially support
incentives, though it’s unclear whether they’d back penalties.
White House officials including deputy director of the National Economic
Council, David Kamin — who wrote a 2019 paper on “Taxing the Rich” — are
in the process of fleshing out the Biden tax plans.
As for timing, if passed, tax measures would likely take effect in 2022 —
though some lawmakers and Biden supporters outside the administration have
argued for holding off while unemployment remains high due to the pandemic.
Lawmakers have their own ideas for tax reforms. Senate Finance Committee
Chairman Ron Wyden wants to consolidate energy tax breaks and require
investors to pay taxes regularly on their investments including stocks and
bonds that have unrealized gains.
“A nurse pays taxes with every single paycheck. A billionaire in an affluent
suburb on the other hand can defer paying taxes month after month to the
point where their paying taxes is pretty much optional,” Wyden told
Bloomberg in an interview. “I don’t think that’s right.”
Warren has pitched a wealth tax, while House Financial Services Committee
Chair Maxine Waters has said she would like to consider a
financial-transaction tax.
Democratic strategists see the next package as effectively the last chance to
reshape the U.S. economy on a grand scale before lawmakers turn to the 2022
mid-term campaign.
“Normally, the party in power gets one or two shots to do major legislative
packages,” said Chuck Marr, senior director of Federal Tax Policy at the
left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “This is the next shot.
”
c 2021 Bloomberg L.P.
机翻如下：
（彭博社）—知情人士说，总统拜登（Joe Biden）计划自1993年以来首次进行重大联邦
加税，以帮助支付长期经济计划，该计划是他的武汉肺炎救济法案的后续行动。
与1.9兆美元的Covid-19刺激法案不同，下一个计划预计会更大，它不会仅仅依靠政府债
务作为资金来源。 尽管越来越明显的是加税将是其中的一个组成部分 — 财政部长珍妮
特‧耶伦（Janet Yellen）表示，至少下一部分法案将必须支付，并指出了更高的税率
— 主要顾问现在正在为整体配套措施做准备 。
每次税收减免和信贷都有自己的游说团体来支持它，因此，对利率进行修补会充满政治风
险。 这有助于解释为什么自从比尔‧克林顿（Bill Clinton）于1993年进行大刀阔斧的
改革以来不曾有过的加税措施，在此后进行的适度修改的诸多政策选项中脱颖而出。
对于拜登政府而言，计划中的变革不仅是为关键计划（如基础设施，气候和对贫困美国人
的扩大援助）提供资金的机会，而且还可以解决民主党人认为税制本身存在的不公平现象
。 该计划将测试拜登吸引共和党的能力和民主党党内保持团结的能力。
ISI Evercore ISI美国公共政策负责人，拜登前经济助手莎拉‧比安奇（Sarah Bianchi
）表示：“他的整体前景一直是，美国人认为税收政策应该是公平的，他已经从那个角度
审视了他的所有政策选择。” 。 “这就是为什么重点放在解决工作与财富之间的不平等
待遇上的原因。”
正如进步民主党参议员伊丽莎白‧沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）提议的那样，白宫拒绝了彻
底的财富税，但政府目前的想法确实针对富人。
据四位知情人士透露，预计白宫将提议一系列增税措施，主要是参酌了拜登（Biden）的
2020年竞选方案。
知情人士说，任何更广泛的基础设施和就业计划中所包含的加税措施，可能包括废除唐纳
德‧川普总统2017年税法中使公司和富人受益的部分，以及进行其他修改以使税法更具进
步性的计划。
知情人士说，以下是目前正在计划或正在考虑的提案，由于不公开讨论，他们不愿透露姓
名：
1.将公司税率从21％提高到28％对所谓的转嫁业务（例如有限责任公司或合伙企业）
2.减少税收优惠将年收入超过40万美元的个人的所得税率提高扩大遗产税的覆蓋面对年
收入至少100万美元的个人提高税率。 （竞选活动中的拜登建议采用所得税率，该税率更
高）
税收政策中心对拜登竞选税收计划进行的独立分析估计，尽管政府的计划可能会更小，但
它将在十年内筹集2.1兆美元。比安奇本月早些时候写道，国会民主党可能会同意5000亿
美元。
总体计划尚未揭晓，分析师的预估数字在2兆至4兆美元之间。尽管白宫表示该计划将在
Covid-19救济法案签署之后进行，但尚未宣布宣布的日期。
对于民主党而言，一个悬而未决的问题是，在有关基础设施是否最终能够收回成本的辩论
中，特别是考虑到目前的借贷成本仍处于历史低位的辩论中，该计划的哪些部分需要获得
资金。如果要完全依靠债务融资，很难在武汉肺炎疾病援助法案中永久地扩大儿童税收抵
免的努力（十年国债标价估计超过1兆美元），可能会更难出售。
彭博社的经济学家怎么说…
“下一个主要的立法举措是基础设施投资，可以提供持久的经济收益，不仅支持更高的薪
水，而且可以促进这些收益在人口统计和政治说服力之间的扩散。”
-美国经济学家安德鲁‧休斯比（Andrew Husby）和伊丽莎‧温格（Eliza Winger）
民主党将需要至少10名共和党人才能支持该法案，以使其在参议院的常规规则下生效。但
是共和党成员表示他们准备战斗。
参议院少数党领袖米奇‧麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）上个月表示：“就大幅增加税收
的适当性，我们将进行激烈的讨论。”
众议院筹款委员会最高的共和党人凯文‧布雷迪（Kevin Brady）表示：“似乎确实在以
边际收益率对资本利得投资的税收征税，”他称这是“严重的经济错误”。
专家说，虽然乔治‧布什政府的减税计划在2013年达成约18％的减免期限，而其他立法也
增加了税率，但1993年是最后一次全面的加税。该法案在众议院以高出两票通过，并要求
副总统在参议院中打破平局。
联邦政策小组常务董事，国会税收联合委员会前任参谋长肯‧凯斯说：“我认为现在的政
党环境比1993年更为严峻，这并不是轻描淡写。”他说：“因此，您可以对今年的交易前
景得出自己的结论”。
尽管如此，共和党仍可能会采取一些税收措施。一种是将汽油税改为车辆行驶里程费，以
帮助资助高速公路项目。
另一个是为执行国税局增加的资金 - 一种在不提高利率的情况下增加收入的方法。估计
发现，在IRS审计上每多花1美元，该机构就会多赚3到5美元。
一位助手说，民主党人也在寻求修改税法，他们说这样做不足以阻止美国公司将工作和利
润转移到海外，这是增加收入的另一种方式。共和党人可能会支持奖励措施，尽管目前尚
不清楚他们是否会支持罚款。
白宫官员，包括国家经济委员会副主任戴维‧卡明（David Kamin）-正在撰写拜登（
Biden）税收计划。
至于时间安排，如果获得通过，税收措施可能会在2022年生效 - 尽管政府之外的一些立
法者和拜登的支持者争辩说，在武汉肺炎导致失业率居高不下的同时，应该暂缓执行。
议员们对税收改革有自己的想法。参议院财政委员会主席罗恩‧怀登（Ron Wyden）希望
巩固能源税减免政策，并要求投资者定期对其投资（包括未实现收益的股票和债券）征税
。
“护士每张薪水条都交税。”另一方面，富裕郊区的亿万富翁却可以将纳税逐月推迟到几
乎可以选择的程度，”怀登在接受彭博社采访时说。 “我认为那是不对的。”
沃伦提出了一项财产税，而众议院金融服务委员会主席马克西‧沃特斯（Maxine Waters
）说，她想考虑一项金融交易税。
民主党政策人士们认为，下一个配套计划实际上是在国会议员转向2022年期中选举之前大
规模重塑美国经济的最后机会。
“通常情况下，执政党可以有一两次机会来制定主要的立法方案，”左倾的预算与政策重
点中心，联邦税收政策机构的高级主管查克‧马尔（Chuck Marr）说。 “这是下一个机
会。”
c 2021彭博L.P.
心得：
0.调利率会得罪太多政治游说团体，所以加税。
1.关键字，2022，美国期中选举前。
2.共和党看起来很不同意。
3.算是放风向球试探，推测最差也要美国就业率回升才有可能推行。
4.个人认为就业率真正回温最快也是2022了。到时候也要期中选举了。