※ [本文转录自 UTAH-JAZZ 看板 #1IXV05l2 ]
作者: crownwell (维) 看板: UTAH-JAZZ
标题: [爆料] 要如何解决排名的算计(下)
时间: Fri Nov 15 17:57:19 2013
The 1990 lottery was the first weighted lottery. New Jersey, the worst team in
the league, had 11 chances to win it. Miami, the second-worst team, had 10
chances. The last team in the lottery, 41-41 Atlanta, had one chance.
This was the formula until 1993, when Orlando (which had gone 41-41 with rookie
Shaquille O'Neal) won the lottery for the second year in a row. NBA commissioner
David Stern made no secret of the fact he was not happy.
1990是第一届加权选秀，New Jersey当年最鸟，有11倍机率拿状元；Miami第二鸟，有10倍
机率，最后一个有机会的41胜41负Atlanta有1倍。
这公式搞到1993就搞不下去了，因为Orlando拥有状元侠客后战绩41胜41负，隔年又再度连
庄(按：Chris Webber，但马上被交易换Penny)，史腾不满之情溢于言表。
The next year, Stern changed the lottery again. It became even more unevenly
weighted. The best team in the lottery, 41-41 Charlotte, had an 0.5 percent
chance of winning it. The worst team, 13-69, Dallas, had a 25 percent chance.
The league has expanded since then, increasing the number of lottery teams. But
this is basically the same lottery we have today.
Stern had good reasons for everything he did along the way. Any lottery is much
better than no lottery at all. Imagine if the worst team in the NBA
automatically got the No. 1 pick this season, and got to choose among Wiggins,
Parker and Randle next summer. Then you would see some SERIOUS tanking. Like,
teams would call plays for their ball boys.
隔年，他就改变了乐透选秀制，加权不平均了，41胜41负Charlotte只有0.5%机率去赢状元
签，最鸟的13胜69败Dallas有25%机率，联盟就这样制订规则至今，并增加些队伍进来抽签
，但也跟今日志度差不多，史腾总有个好理由，有点签总比没签好。想像若最鸟球队自动拿
状元，Wiggins, Parker 与Randle三选一，你就会看到更专业的算计，例如，让球僮去指挥
若定。
But the current lottery is still significantly flawed, because it places too
great a value on being the worst team in the league. The lottery is constructed
under the assumption that if Team A has a slightly better record than Team B, it
is truly a slightly better team. This is built upon another assumption: Team A
and Team B are both trying as hard as they can, all the time.
That's not really true. There are really two tiers of lottery teams.
但现今制度还是有缺陷，因为最鸟球队背后潜藏了极大利益，乐透签制度立基于队伍A比队
伍B稍稍好一点的假设，且也假设队伍A队伍B都毫无保留的比赛。这不可能成真，这儿有两
排的球队有乐透签呢！
The half-dozen or so worst teams in the league are generally awful. They all
need the boost that comes with one of the top picks in the draft. Last year's
seventh- and eighth-worst teams, Detroit and Washington (they had the same 29-53
record) would have needed at least nine more wins to earn a playoff bid, and for
those teams, nine wins was a lot.
如果有半打摆烂就很恐怖了，他们亟需潜力新秀来推升他们的战绩，去年第七八鸟的
Detroit与 Washington(同为29胜53负)只要再九胜就有季后赛门票，但对它们来说，
九胜很难。
The second tier of lottery teams are teams that were in the playoff hunt, or at
least had good reasons to believe they would be. Last year, Minnesota and
Philadelphia were ravaged by injuries. Portland had a playoff-quality starting
five but no bench. Teams in that tier of the lottery played most of the season
without thinking about the No. 1 pick.
So here is your solution: The seven worst teams in the league all get the same
chance of winning the lottery. Let's say they each have a 10 percent chance of
winning it. Then the league weights the rest of the lottery. The chart above
would look something like this:
对于第二排的乐透球队来说，他们很接近季后赛了，或许也有几个好理由支持他们会进去，
去年，Minnesota 与Philadelphia病痛缠身，Philadelphia排得出先发但无板凳奥援。
第二排的乐透球队其实没对状元签动脑筋。
所以状况来了，假设它们都有10%机率赢它，然后联盟调整乐透权重，图表会像这样:
2012-13 NBA 乐透签(我的提案)
队伍 战绩 状元签机会
Orlando 20-63 10
Charlotte 21-61 10
Cleveland 24-58 10
Phoenix 25-57 10
New Orleans 27-55 10
Sacramento 28-54 10
Detroit 29-53 10
Washington 29-53 9
Minnesota 31-51 7
Portland 33-49 5
Philadelphia 34-48 3
Toronto 34-48 2
Dallas 41-41 2
Utah 43-39 2
How would that change the behavior of teams? Well, the future is hard to predict
, or at least hard to predict accurately. But I think it would accomplish the
two primary goals of the lottery: rewarding the worst teams in the league, and
discouraging tanking.
这会怎么改变球队的行为？嗯，未来更难预测了，或更难准确预测，且我想会达成两个主要
目的:1.奖励鸟队们。2.降低算计。
WINN: Michigan State outshines top picks at Champions Classic
The really lousy teams would still get the best shot at the top picks. But they
would have no incentive to out-stink each other. That would mean that, when
general managers constructed their teams over the summer, they would be more
likely to add a player or two that would improve their team, because the
downside risk (losing ping-pong balls for the lottery) would not be there.
最鸟球队还是有最高选秀权，但减少比烂动机，当总管进行重建计画，也会加一两个球员去
保持球队战力，因为下跌风险已不复在。
This would also help take care of the perception problem. Once the season was
underway, there would be no question: The players on the court would try to win.
So would the coaches. This would make the worst teams more watchable, which
would be good for fans, and good for the credibility of the league. There would
still be bad teams, but that's true in every league. You just don't want anybody
thinking it is good to be the worst.
这也能顾到观念，当球季进行，毫无疑问，球员跟教练会努力去赢，最鸟球队更具可看性，
球迷也获益，联盟更可信，虽还是有烂队，但那是事实，我们只是不想有人处心积虑变鸟
罢了。
The teams in the upper tier of the lottery would also be unlikely to tank. They
would have too much to gain by making the playoffs, even as a No. 8 seed: at
least two home games' worth of revenue, positive publicity with the fan base,
playoff experience for younger players, and the once-a-decade chance of pulling
an upset. That's not worth giving up for a two-percent chance at the No. 1 pick.
That's why the bottom half of the lottery would be weighted