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Statistical revolution is killing the next generation of MLB fans
By Joel Sherman
The smart folks are right. But it is wronging baseball.
那群聪明人是对的，但是对棒球是个伤害。
They are right that wins are a bad gauge of what kind of season a
pitcher had, as Jacob deGrom is exemplifying this year.
如同 Jacob deGrom 今年的表现，用胜投来评价投手的确是不精确的。
They are right that batting average reveals far less about a
hitter’s skills than 10 other metrics and that RBIs and runs
scored are so highly dependent on the team around you as to not be
as insightful into an individual as once believed.
随便抓 10 种数据，都比用打击率评价打者有用。打点和得分和队友高度相
关，无法反映出自身的实力。
I agree with it all. Yet, I believe part of the decline in passion
for the major leagues is mixed into how we view these numbers.
这些我都同意，但是我们分析这些数字的方法，同时削减了对MLB的热情。
For we keep telling one generation of fans they are dumb for
caring about 20 wins or .300 batting averages or 100 RBIs, and the
next generation of fans doesn’t care about them. But what has
risen in its place to keep interest in players and teams and
seasons?
我们一直和下一代说20胜，3成打击率和100分打点数据多没意义，他们也逐
渐忽视这些数据，
It used to be that even if your team was out of it, you could
still be engaged daily by a favorite player pursuing 20 wins or
100 runs or 100 RBIs. Baseball is novelistic, you turn the pages
daily and the rewards are generally at the end of a long,
challenging commitment.
以前即使你支持的队伍出局了，你仍然期待你最爱的球员追逐20胜，得100分
或100打点。棒球就像小说，每天看过几页后，最终得到一个刺激的结尾。
As a kid, I was such a huge Pete Rose and Cincinnati Reds fan that
I could not wait until the paper arrived each morning so I could
calculate how much closer he was each season to 200 hits. I can
remember my father, a lifelong Yankees fan, happy on the final day
of the 1997 season that Bernie Williams hit a solo homer to reach
exactly 100 RBIs. My dad felt he had taken both the career-long
and season-long journey to accomplishment with a player he liked.
我小时候是红人和 Pete Rose 的死忠球迷。每天我都等不及报纸送来，让我
可以计算 Pete Rose 离 200 安多远。我也记得我终身洋基迷的爸爸，在
Bernie Williams 于 1997 球季最终战打出全垒打，刚好达到100分打点时有
多开心。
But as these numbers have been pooh-poohed — again, if I ran a
team I would pooh-pooh them, too — we have lost a thread that
connected eras. What are fans living and dying with individually
these days? Is anyone tracking if their favorite has exceed five
wins above replacement or if their most beloved pitcher had an
xFIP that has dropped below 3.00?
虽然若我自己经营一个球队，肯定会忽视这些数据。但是当这些数据被唾弃
后，我们失去对过去成就的连结。现在的球迷如何追踪球星？还有人注意他
们喜爱的球员WAR超过5，或著是xFIP小于3?
I do think the pace of play is too slow and that there are not
enough balls in play as ailments to the current game. But I also
believe statistics have been the backbone of this sport. And
between the Steroid Era and the Metric Generation, we have
weakened that backbone, even as more revealing stats have been
introduced.
我的确同意现在比赛时间过长，而且球在场内的时间太少是个毛病。我也相
信统计是棒球的精神，但是从禁药年代到统计世代，即使提出更多的统计，
这种精神也逐渐衰退。
It used to be if a player topped 20 or 30, but certainly 40 or 50
homers, we hailed it and remembered it. Now, the first instinct is
skepticism, not exhilaration. Anticipation used to come with
career marks of 300 or 400, but especially 500 or 600 homers.
Albert Pujols reached 600 homers last year attended by more of a
pin drop than ceremony. Pujols exceeded 3,000 hits this season,
Adrian Beltre did so last year, but did it in an age in which we
know collective times on base is more valuable than just the
accumulation of hits. So where was the attention and euphoria?
以前我们会为一个球员打了20,30甚至到40,50轰欢呼。但现在我们会先质疑
这个数字。我们也会期待生涯全垒打到 300,400 甚至 500,600 等整数。但
是去年 Albert Pujols 的 600 轰反应只比鸦雀无声好一些。Pujols 本季达
到 3000 安，Adrian Beltre 去年也达到，但是不是因为我们在上垒数
(TOB)比安打数据重要的时代，让我们失去专注和热情?
There was a time that many fans could rattle off all the members
of the 500-homer, 3,000-hit and 300-win club with the same
efficiency as the names of their own children. Now? Maybe that is
the internet and having the answers a mouse click away and, thus,
no need to commit it to stored human memory. But a lot of this is
lost passion based on drugs having soiled accomplishments and
smart folks doing the equivalent of patting heads and saying, “
Enjoy your archaic stats,” and making those who still cite them
feel like fools. No one wants to work to be a fan or feel stupid.
以前许多球迷闭眼就可以说出 500 轰，3000 安和 300 胜俱乐部成员，和唸
出自己小孩的名字一样简单。现在呢？或许是互联网上点一点就可以查到
，没多少人会去记忆这些事。而且随着禁药让数据打上星号，还有聪明人拍
拍球迷的头说 “享受你的老派数据吧”，让大家觉得这样很蠢而不再继续做
这些事。
Due to how many fingers are on each hand and how many we have in
total, we like numbers that end in fives and 10s. This is fans’
leisure time. They want 20 wins, 30 homers, .300 averages or
career totals of 300 wins, 500 homers and, yep, a .300 average.
Easily calculable and understandable, simple to follow over long
seasons and lengthy careers.
因为手指的数量，我们喜欢5或10结尾的整数。球迷闲暇时间喜欢追踪 20 胜
，30 轰，3成打击率和生涯 300 胜，500 轰，当然也有生涯3成打击率。容
易计算也容易理解，方便我们在漫长的球季和生涯追踪。
I just don’t see the day coming when fans are going to hang on
players’ career amassing of ERA-plus or weighted runs
created-plus. And, again: I agree that those are more revelatory.
But we have taken away one language, replaced it with another and
failed to appreciate what that change (as valuable as it might be
in evaluation) would mean to both the history of the game and fan
passion for it.
我不希望有一天球迷紧紧抱住 ERA+ 和 wRC+。我当然同意这些数据很重要，
但我们用另一种东西取代共通语言，却不能让球迷用他欣赏过去的比赛。(译
注：这里感觉翻得不太顺)
We know now that it is not worthwhile to extend a pitcher into
workloads never before ventured into by that individual to pursue
a no-hitter, and we even have told fans no-hitters are kind of
luck-based and not that sexy because they come with walks or
errors. But hearing someone was working on a no-hitter used to be
a reason to flip on a baseball game. To care. Now, we tell them, “
Nah, don’t care.” It is like telling moviegoers to only care
about Oscar candidates and you are a fool if you invest in the
latest Kevin Hart or Will Ferrell film.
我们知道让球员投球量超过自身极限，以追求无安打并不划算，我们甚至告
诉球迷因为有保送和失误，无安打并不完美。我们通常会因为球员有机会达
成无安打而关注比赛，但现在我们说 “欧，别太在意” 就像是我们告诉电
影迷只要关注奥斯卡入围者，追踪 Kevin Hart, Will Ferrell 的电影很蠢
。
If I ran a team, I would pull a starter who was beginning to run
in the red, I would use reliever after reliever to attack games
because numbers show that is most effective, I would not re-sign
older players that even my fans have come to love because the flow
charts show imminent decline, I would not care about complete
games or .300 batting averages or 300 wins in any vital way while
coldly deciding what is best, today, for my team. It all makes
sense.
如果我经营一支球队，我会在先发投手快没力时换下他。而且因为数据显示
这样比较有效，我也会用多个短局数后援投手。即使是球迷喜爱他，我也不
会签衰退的老将。我会冷血地做出最佳决定，不在意完投，3成打击率或是
300胜，对我的球队来说，这些点都是合理的。
Unfortunately, it also is hurting the game.
但不幸的，这些做法也在伤害比赛。