楼主:
kobec (水桶工程师)
2017-11-29 15:51:44这篇是在Hardball Times上的文章。
作者找了一些可能会影响大谷与哪支球队签约的因子，然后以数据去评比每支球队所获得
的分数。而作者主观的给予这些因子权重，最后得到一个总分。
作者找的这些指标都还蛮基本，不过作者评比每个因子时采取的资料与算法可能问一百人
会有一百零一个人有意见，像我对于某些他给分的标准就不太苟同，不过整体来说还算
是一篇有趣的文章，但对于文章所给的结果别太认真。
如果各位有兴趣的话也可以主观地挑选自己觉得重要的因子看看结果会怎样XD
The Ohtani Algorithm
by Daniel R. Epstein November 16, 2017
文章来源：https://goo.gl/5noCAV
Free agency is predictable. Nearly every free agent has one motivating factor
driving his decision: grabbing the best contract possible. To predict where a
player will sign all you have to do is draw a line to the team that will pay
the most. Guessing the correct team is a little more complicated, but the
player’s motive is simple.
Shohei Ohtani is writing his own rules. For the uninitiated, the 23-year-old
sensation is the best pitcher in Japan who also happens to be the best hitter
in Japan. No one alive has ever seen a player like him in the majors. Now, he
’s ready to be posted and come to a ballpark near you. Needless to say, the
ensuing frenzy to pursue him will be unlike anything we’ve seen before.
However, Ohtani’s two-way excellence isn’t what makes him baseball’s most
compelling story this winter. His free-agency decision will have little to do
with money at all. He’s under the age of 25 and therefore subject to baseball
’s international bonus system. This will drastically reduce his earning
potential. If he were a true free agent he would probably sign for more $200
million. Now he’ll sign for a bonus less than $4 million and a major league
minimum salary until he reaches arbitration.
自由球员是可预测的。
几乎每个自由球员都受到一个重要因子影响，也就是他会尽可能获得最好的合约。
因此基本上，要预测一个球员最终会与哪个球队签约，只需知道每队的底线，价高者得。
要猜中最终会是哪个球队出线可能会有一点复杂，但对球员来说，要理解他的动机却
相对简单。
大谷翔平却有着他自己的想法。
对外行人来说，这位23岁的明星是日本最好的投手，同时也可能会是日本最好的打者。
目前还没有人在大联盟看过像他一样的球员，而他目前正透过入札制度进入你家附近的
球场。不需赘言，竞逐他的过程将会疯狂得超乎你的想像。
然而，大谷在这个冬天如此引人注目的原因并非他在投打两端杰出的表现，
而是他最终会选择加入哪支球队。毕竟，金钱的多寡对他的影响并不大。
他目前的年纪小于25岁，因此受到国际球员签约金的限制，这会让他的收入大幅减少。
若他是一位真正的自由球员，他所能获得的收入估计超过两亿美金。
但他选择此时挑战大联盟，他所能获得的签约金将少于四百万美金，且在他满足仲裁条件
之前，他最多只能领大联盟球员的底薪。
In other words, money isn’t the driving factor for Ohtani. Some consider it
foolish, others think it admirable. Regardless of the reason, the normal
rules of free agency do not apply. So what are the Ohtani rules? Only he
knows for sure.
While we can’t know his rules or criteria for choosing a team, I wanted to
take a crack at predicting his team of choice anyway. So I designed an
algorithm to predict the likelihood of each major league team signing Ohtani.
It analyzes 11 possible factors, sorted into six categories, that may
influence his free-agency decision. Each of those factors was weighted by
estimating how important they may be for his choice. The result is a total
score out of 100 for each team. The higher the score, the more likely the
team is to sign him. Simple, right?
Of course, there’s a lot of guesswork with this algorithm. We don’t know if
any of these factors actually weigh on his mind at all. Maybe there’s some
other factor that we’ll never know. Trying to get inside the mind of a
23-year-old is reckless, if not impossible. But that’s what makes this whole
process fun! Let’s make a guess, and after he signs we’ll see what was
right, what was wrong, and what was just idiotic in hindsight. Below, I’ll
break this down by each of the six categories I chose. If you’d like to look
at everything altogether, you can view the spreadsheet in its entirety here.
换句话说，金钱并非驱使大谷做出决定的关键因子。有些人认为他做出这个决定相当愚蠢
，但也有些人相当敬佩他的决定。
不论原因为何，我们可以知道那套用来衡量一般自由球员会如何做出决定的方法并不适用
于大谷身上。那对大谷来说，有那些因素会影响他的决定呢?只有他自己知道。
虽然我们无法确切得知哪些因素会影响他的决定，我仍想尝试去预测他会如何选择球队。
因此，我设计了一个算法预测哪支球队最有可能与签下大谷。
我分析了十一个可能影响大谷签约的因子，并将这些因子分为六类，每个因子都依据其
重要程度给予不同权重。最终每队都会得到一个总分为一百的分数。
分数越高的球队自然越有可能与大谷签约。很简单，对吧?!
当然，这个算法有很多部分都是靠猜测的，毕竟我们不知道这些因子在大谷心中的权重
是多少，也可能会有其他因子对他来说很重要但我们却不知道的。
没办法，毕竟要理解一个23岁年轻人的想法并不容易，无论如何，这整个过程依然有趣，
就让我们开始这个猜谜游戏，等到他真正签约后，就能知道这个算法哪部分是正确的，
哪部分有误，甚至事后诸葛的说整个算法是个白痴系统也可以。
若想要知道详细的计算过程，可以参考这个表：https://goo.gl/G1q72n 。
Category 1: Team Interest
The first prerequisite for any free agent is having teams interested in his
services; this is one normal free-agency rule from which Ohtani is not
exempt. One might think all 30 teams would want a player called “The
Japanese Babe Ruth,” and perhaps every team will offer the $20 million
posting fee (only the signing team has to pay it), but in reality only a
handful of them will enter the bidding in earnest. As a result, the Team
Interest category is worth 35 points of the total 100.
Ninety percent of the Team Interest category is based on whether the team has
scouted Ohtani. Teams whose general manager watched him in person receive 10
points in the “Scouted Ohtani” subcategory and teams that sent a scout get
five points. If there is no known report of a given team scouting Ohtani, it
receives no points.
The other 10 percent of the category is based on a team’s history of signing
big-name international free agents. Some teams are more willing to take risks
on international players.
If a team hasn’t signed any in recent history it gets zero points. Teams
that signed one or two players get five points. The Dodgers, who’ve signed
five of them, get 10 points. This includes any player signed to a large major
league contract from Japan, South Korea or Cuba in the last five years. The
one exception is Yoan Moncada, who signed a minor league contract but for
$31.5 million. It would be remiss to not include him as a big money
international signing.
第一类：球队对大谷的兴趣
对每个自由球员来说，要完成签约的先决条件就是有球队对他有兴趣，大谷也不例外。
或许会有人认为大联盟三十支球团都一定会对这位日本贝比鲁斯有兴趣，而且也一定不会
吝于为他付出两千万美金的入札金。
但事实上，或许只有少部分球队会愿意认真出价。因此在此类别的权重我给35%。
这类别中有90%是根据球队是否曾经观察过大谷，若球队的GM曾亲自观察过他，在这子项目
就能获得十分的满分；若仅派出球探观察就给五分，若球队没有任何以知关于大谷的球探
报告，就是零分。
另外10%则是根据球队是否曾签过任何著名的国际球员，因为不是所有球队都愿意在国际
球员身上冒险。若球队未曾签过任何一名国际球员，则此子项目的得分就是零分；签过
一至两位则给五分；若是像道奇依样签了五位知名的国际球员就能获得满分十分。
这里的国际球员定义为过去五年内是以大联盟合约签下，且球员来自于日本、韩国或古巴
才列入计算。唯一例外是Yoan Moncada，虽然他是以小联盟约签下，但签约金却高达三千
一百五十万美金，若不将他列入考量将会是个严重的疏忽。
The Dodgers are the only team to earn all 35 points in the Team Interest
category. There appears to be a correlation between teams that sent their GM
to scout Ohtani and teams that have signed international free agents before.
As a result, the Yankees, the Padres and the Mariners joined the Dodgers near
the top of the leaderboard, followed closely by the Rangers and the Giants.
在这项评比中，道奇是唯一一支拿下满分三十五分的球队，因为他们的GM曾经
亲自去观察过大谷，同时道奇过去也乐于在国际球员市场中冒险。
而洋基、教士与水手则以些微的差距居次，再来则是游骑兵与巨人队。
*以国民队为例，他们只有派球探去观察大谷，并未出动GM，而他们在过去五年内也未曾
与任何一位大物国际球员签约，所以在此项评比中他们的得分为：
[(5/10)*90%+(0/10)*10%]*35%=17.5%
Category 2: Playing Time
What good is a two-way player if he can’t play two ways? Assuming Ohtani
wants to be on the mound and in the batter’s box as much as possible,
playing time should be a significant factor. Subsequently, the Playing Time
category is worth 25 percent of the total score.
Every team can make room for an ace on the pitching staff, but not every team
has an open designated hitter spot. For this reason, the “Plate Appearances
Opportunities” subcategory is worth 90 percent of the Playing Time category.
All National League teams were tied for 24th because they have no DH during
intraleague games. Using RosterResource.com, the American League teams were
ranked 1-15 based on how entrenched their DH is for the upcoming season. The
top five neediest teams at DH were granted 10 points, teams ranked 6-10
earned six points, the remaining five AL teams got two points and all NL
teams received none at all.
The last 10 percent of the Team Interest category was devoted to pitching.
Again using Roster Resource, each pitcher on a given team that was ranked in
the top 150 overall in 2017 and is under contract for 2018 is considered to
have a rotation spot for next year. Teams that have five such pitchers and don
’t need any this offseason get zero points. Teams that need one or two
pitchers get the full 10 points. Teams that need three or more starters get
only six points, because while there is great need for a player of Ohtani’s
skill, a team with such an incomplete rotation is usually rebuilding.
对一位二刀流选手来说，尽量得出赛应该才是最好的。
假设大谷想要尽可能地站在投手丘与打击区内，出赛时间的多寡或许会是个重要因子，
所以出赛时间这项评比的权重为25%。
每支球队都可以替大谷在投手丘上清出空间，但并非每队都可以在DH中找到位置给他。
所以，能获得多少PA在这项评比中将占90%。
所有国联球队都排在第24名，因为都无法在跨联盟比赛外提供DH的位置。
利用RosterResource.com 这个网站对各队DH的评比将十五支美联球队排名，
最需要DH的前五支球队将可获得十分，六到十名则有六分，
剩下的球队只有两分，而所有的国联球队都是零分。
剩下的10%则是以先发投手作为评分依据，透过相同的网站，
依照2017年的成绩列出联盟前150名表现优秀的先发投手，若球队在2018年仍拥有该球员
，那就认为该球员在明年会进入球队的先发轮值中。
倘若某球队五位先发都被占满，表示该球队在今年季后补强并不会优先考虑先发投手，
故在此项评比为零分；若球队仍需要一至两名球员填补先发轮值则会获得十分；
假如球队需要三位以上的先发投手，那只能获得六分。因为若一支球队
会如此缺乏优秀的先发投手，表示该球队通常是处于重建期。
The Royals, the Twins and the Yankees earned all 25 points in this
subcategory for having relatively open DH spots and holes in the rotation,
with Cleveland and the White Sox close behind. These five teams have the most
two-way playing time to offer Ohtani by a substantial margin.
在此项评比中，皇家、双城与洋基都获得25分满分，原因在于他们对于DH与
先发轮值都仍有需求；印地安人与白袜居次，表示这五支球队能提供大谷最佳的舞台发挥
他二刀流的优势。
* 以笑脸人为例，他们对于先发投手的需求为零，而在DH需求排行榜中排第二，因此在
此项评比中的得分为：
[(10/10)*90%+(0/10)*10%]*25%=22.5%
Category 3: Money
Is money at least a partial factor for Ohtani? It stands to reason that he’
ll want to get paid. If so, each team’s international bonus money and
ability to sign him to an extension would affect his decision. The Money
category is therefore worth 20 points out of the overall score.
The International Bonus Rules outlined in the collective bargaining agreement
determine how much money each team can spend in a given offseason. Some teams
have acquired more through trades, others have spent or traded nearly all of
their bonus pool. In fact, only six teams can pay him even $1 million!
The Rangers, Twins and Yankees have more than $3 million to spend, giving
them the full 10 points of this subcategory, which is worth 80 percent of the
Money category. The Pirates receive eight points for having more than $2
million to offer. The Mariners and Marlins get six points each because they
can offer more than $1 million. Teams with at least $0.5 million get two
points and all others are granted no points.
Each team’s 2017 payroll is a 20 percent factor for the Money category. This
is because he may want to sign a large contract extension, as many young
stars do in their pre-arb or arbitration years. Teams with higher payrolls
presumably will have a higher capacity to offer more money in the future.
Teams north of $200 million get 10 points, $180 million gets nine points,
$160 million gets eight points, and so on.
钱会不会是影响大谷做出决定的部分因子呢?这项评分隐含着他可能会想要
获得较高的签约金。倘若真是如此，那各球队所能负担的国际球员签约金将会影响大谷
的决定，因此这项评比的权重为20%。
根据CBA的协定，每支球队的国际签约金都有上限，有些球队能透过交易获得额外的额度，
有些球队则早已花光，或是被交易出去了。
事实上，只有六队有能力给予大谷超过百万美金的签约金。
此项评比中，80%是基于各队可运用的国际球员签约金额度。游骑兵、双城与洋基仍有
超越三百万的额度可供使用，故在这个子项目中获得满分；海盗目前还拥有超过两百万
的额度，所以获得八分；水手与马林鱼因为还有超过一百万的额度所以各获得六分。而那
些还有五十万美金额度的球队则获得两分，其余为零分。
而剩下的20%是以2017年的球员薪资总额为评比标准，这是因为大谷或许会想要获得一份
大约，就如同许多年轻的明星球员在它们获得仲裁资格之前或在仲裁年会想做的。
若球队的薪资总额较高意味球队在未来有能力给予大谷较高的薪资，若球队薪资总额超过
两亿美金就得到十分，超过一亿八千万能得到九分，高于一亿六千万能获得八分，
以此类推。
Naturally, the Yankees, Rangers and Twins score big in this category.
Notably, big market teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox don’t fare well
because of a lack of international bonus money available. This could make it
difficult for them to remain in the bidding.
不意外的，洋基、游骑兵与双城在此项评比中获得高分。
但值得注意的是那些大市场球队，如道奇或红袜表现却不如预期，原因在于他们在国际
球员签约金的额度不足，这会让他们在出价时处于劣势。
*以双城队为例，他们在国际签约金额度超过三百万，所以获得十分满分；但2017年的
球员薪资总额水平只获得四分，故在此项评比的得分为
[(10/10)*80%+(4/10)*20%]*20%=17.6%
Category 4: Team Success
If you were a young phenom and had your pick of pretty much any team, wouldn’
t you want to play for a winner? Assuming Ohtani thinks along those lines, he
will be more likely to choose a team that can win the World Series quickly.
This category has only one factor and counts for 10 points out of the total
score.
Using OddsShark to determine World Series probability, each team was graded
on its likelihood of success in 2018. Teams with 10:1 odds or better earned
10 points. Teams with 30:1 odds or better got six points. Any team with at
least 50:1 odds received two points and all other teams got no points.
如果你是个年轻的优秀人才，而且可以挑选你所想要的球队为他效力，
难道你不会选一个具有竞争力的球队吗?
假设大谷也是这么想的，那他一定会希望能加入一支可以马上获得世界大赛冠军金杯的球
队。关于球队未来展望这个类别只有一个考虑的因子，也就是获得世界大赛冠军的机率，
而这个项目的权重有10%。
借由http://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/odds/futures 这个网站可以估计每支球队获得2018
年世界冠军的机率，若球队获得冠军的机率是10:1或是更高将获得10分；若赔率是30:1或
更高则可得到6分；若球队赔率是50:1就只能拿到两分，其余球队则为零分。
*如洋基队在该网站的估计明年能获得冠军的赔率是8:1，所以在此项评比洋基队获得
十分的满分。
Category 5: Cultural Comfort
It’s not easy traveling to a new country, especially at a young age. Ohtani
may desire an easy transition to a team with Japanese players on its current
roster or in its history. He may also want as short a plane ride as possible
for his friends and family. Five points of the total score are devoted to
Cultural Comfort.
Half of this category regards each team’s history with Japanese players. The
“History” subcategory adds up current players on the roster from Japan as
well as how many great Japanese players have ever played for the team.
Perhaps Ohtani grew up a Mariners fan because of Ichiro Suzuki or a Yankees
fan because of Hideki Matsui. Any team with two or more current or historical
players gets 10 points, one player gets a team five points, and no players of
course means no points.
It’s worth noting that three Japanese players are free agents this
offseason: Yu Darvish, Ichiro Suzuki and Hisashi Iwakuma. If one of them
signs before Ohtani it could impact his decision greatly. (Or maybe not at
all!)
* Hideo Nomo pitched for several teams outside of Los Angeles, but for no
more than one season. He’s best remembered as a Dodger, so only the Dodgers
get the credit for having him.
在一个新国度旅行并非易事，尤其是对一个年轻人来说。
大谷或许会希望能够到一个同样拥有现役日本籍球员或曾经有过日职球员的球队，
这将会让他更快的融入环境。
此外，他或许也会希望到一个离日本不会太远的城市，这样当他与家人或朋友见面时，就不需要搭
那么久的飞机。这个类别所分配到的权重是5%。
此类别中，50%以该球队历史中是否有日籍球员为评分标准。这里所指的“历史”定义为
目前轮值表中所拥有的日籍球员以及过往是否有大咖日籍球星效力为准。
也许大谷在成长过程中会因为朗神而变成水手队的纷丝，或是因为松井秀喜而成为洋基的
球迷。只要有球队历史中拥有两名以上的日籍球员就可获得十分，一位可获得五分，若都
没有则为零分。
值得注意的是在这个冬季，将有三位日籍球员成为自由球员，分别是达比修有、铃木一朗
与岩隈久志。若任何一位球员在大谷之前签约，那将会对这项评分有重大影响(也许根本
没影响)。其中野茂英雄虽然曾在洛城以外的许多支球队效力过，但待的时间都小于一季
，且在人们记忆中，还是道奇时期的他最令人印象深刻，故评分时就将他归为道奇队。
另外的50%则是以球队与日本的距离作为标准，西岸的球队都获得十分，美中的球队则获
得五分，美东的则为零分。
The Dodgers got a perfect score for the category, followed closely by the
Mariners. The Cubs and Rangers also scored highly, while 10 teams were shut
out completely.
道奇在此评比中获得满分，水手队则紧接在后；小熊与游骑兵同样获得
不错的分数，但有十队在此项评比中完全挂蛋。
*以金莺队为例，他们曾经拥有过一位日籍球员(上原浩治)，但因为巴尔的摩在东岸，
所以在此项评比中的得分为：
[(5/10)*50%+(0/10)*50%]*5%=1.25%
Category 6: Fans
Some players prefer to play in front of as many fans as possible. More
importantly for Ohtani, a bigger fan base means more marketing opportunities,
which should be significantly more lucrative than his salary. The final five
points of the overall score are devoted to the Fans category.
Market size accounts for 70 percent of the Fans category. Four markets
comprising seven teams earned a score of 10 points: New York, Los Angeles,
Chicago and Toronto. Teams playing in top 10 media markets got five points
(Atlanta, Boston, Houston, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Texas and
Washington). All other teams got zero points.
* Of course, Toronto isn’t an American media market at all. However, it’s
the top market in Canada and is similar to Los Angeles and Chicago in terms
of size, hence the 2.5 score.
The other 30 percent of the Fans category relates to ballpark attendance. Ten
points went to teams with average attendance of at least 39,000 in 2017.
Eight points were given to teams with 35,000, six points for 30,000, four
points for 25,000, two for 20,000, and zero for anything less.
有些球员偏好于广大球迷面前出赛，对大谷来说，若有许多球迷意味着该队
的市场相当大，也就是他有可能会获得更多的赚钱机会。最后的5%就给这个类别。
此评比中70%由市场大小决定，位于纽约、洛杉矶、芝加哥与多伦多的七支球队将可夺下
十分的满分；亚特兰大、波士顿、休士顿、奥克兰、费城、旧金山、德州与华府的球队
可以获得五分；剩下的球队则为零分。
(虽然多伦多不是美国市场，但是对加拿大来说，多伦多就像是洛杉矶、芝加哥一样的
大城市，因此给予它们相同的分数。)
其余的30%则以球场平均观众数量为评比标准，若2017年球队观众平均超过三万九千人
的球队可以获得十分；超过三万五千人可以获得八分；超过三万可以获得六分；
两万五千人以上获得四分，两万人可以获得两分，少于两万人则为零分。
The Cubs and Dodgers grabbed all five points in the category, while the
Angels, Mets and Yankees all scored highly. Poor Tampa Bay received no points
whatsoever in this category.
小熊与道奇在这类评比中获得满分，天使、大都会和洋基居次，
光芒队在此评比中却一分未得。
*以笑脸人为例，克里夫兰在市场大小的分数为零，2017年的平均观众人数约有
两万五千三百人。故在此评比中得分为：
[(0/10)*70%+(4/10)*30%]*5%=0.6%
Total Score
According to this algorithm, the Yankees are miles ahead of the competition.
The Rangers are far behind, but still comfortably in second place. Then the
Mariners, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cleveland are clustered behind the two front
runners.
Does this mean Ohtani has to sign with the Yankees? Of course not! They may
be best positioned to bid for his services by this metric, but perhaps the
player and his agent have something else in mind. Maybe he’ll insist on
playing for a west coast team, whereas that was only a small piece of this
algorithm. Perhaps there’s some other factor unbeknownst to the public. It’
s even possible he just chooses whichever team signs Darvish.
However he reaches a decision, the pursuit of Ohtani will be the most
intriguing story of the offseason. He could sign with the Yankees or Rangers
for all the aforementioned reasons, or he could do something completely
unexpected. Regardless of the ending, the story will be fascinating to watch.
根据这个算法，洋基队在争取大谷的竞赛中遥遥领先。
而游骑兵则以不小的差距居次，再来依序是水手、道奇、红袜与印地安人。
这结果意味大谷一定会与洋基签约吗?当然不是!
这只是代表洋基在这些条件的考量下拥有最具优势。
但大谷与他的经纪人或许会有一些其他的考量，例如他可能坚持要在西岸的球队出赛，
而这个因子在此算法中所占的权重却相当少。也许还有一些隐藏的因子还没被大家发现
，例如大谷搞不好只想要跟签下达比修的球队签约。
无论如何，追逐大谷将会是今年休季让大家最有兴趣的话题。
根据上述的因子，他最有可能会与洋基和游骑兵签约，或也有可能他会做出一些无法预期
的决定。
不管最后结局如何，竞逐大谷的过程绝对会是大家关注的焦点。
<各队得分表>
NYY(95.5) TEX(72.6) SEA(63.1) LAD(59.0) BOS(53.6) CLE(50.9)
MIN(46.2) SFG(42.5) SDP(39.7) CHC(39.5) TOR(38.2) CWS(34.5)
WSN(34.1) BAL(32.8) PIT(32.2) ARI(29.8) HOU(29.6) KCR(29.3)
TBR(22.8) OAK(21.5) CIN(19.3) MIA(16.0) STL(15.4) NYM(15.3)
MIL(14.7) LAA(14.1) DET(12.0) PHI( 9.4) COL( 9.0) ATL( 8.8)