本季被打到后伤害"最大"和"最小"的球路
Baseball’s Most Extreme Pitches from Starters, So Far
by Stats All Folks - August 24, 2013
Introduction
After reading Jeff Sullivan’s piece entitled “Identifying Baseball’s Most
Unhittable Pitches, So Far” on August 21, I found his methodology to be quite
interesting. It was suggested in the comments rather than looking at whiff
rate we should consider who has allowed the weakest contact. Now, there are a
couple of different ways to look at weakest contact. First, you could look at
batted ball velocity. You could also look at batted ball distance as well.
Both of these techniques would provide some measure of the severity of contact
allowed by a pitcher. At the end of the day though, a warning track fly ball
is still as effective for a pitcher as a pop up. I thought it would be better
to look at who got hurt the least with their pitches.
在读了 Jeff Sullivan的大作 “Identifying Baseball’s Most Unhittable Pitches,
So Far”(中文在 #1I5Oi4dg，译按)之后，我觉得他的评估方法很有意思。我在意见中谈
到不要用挥空，而改用 weakest contact作标准。对此首先，你可以看被打出去的球的速
度，你也可以看被打出去的距离。但不论如何，打到警戒区的深远飞球跟内野高飞在结果
上也没什么差别。因此我想看看哪种球路所造成的 "伤害" 最小是一个较好的标准。
In saying that, I mean to look at what pitchers are theoretically giving up
nothing but singles on a pitch versus what pitchers are theoretically giving up
nothing but home runs. A quick calculation to quantify this value is total
bases per hit allowed (TB/H). This is the same as the ratio between slugging
percentage and batting average (SLG/AVG). Values have to be between one and
four. A value of 1.00 corresponds to only singles. A value of 4.00
corresponds to only home runs. Any value in between could represent a
combination of all hit types.
就此而言，我指的是考虑两种极端情况的差别，投手永远被打一垒安打跟投手永远被打全
垒打。而我所采用的标准是每支安打的平均垒打数。这跟考虑长打率除以打击率一样。值
会在 1 到 4 之间，如果是 1，表示永远只会被打一垒安打，如果是 4，表是永远背尻出
墙外。在此之间的数值代表了各种情况的平均。
Baseball Prospectus provides PitchF/X leaderboards for eight different pitch
types: four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, splitter, changeup, curveball,
slider, and knuckleball. I chose to look at only starting pitchers in this
study. Also, to be considered, a pitcher had to have thrown at least 200 of
the pitch of interest. The league leaders in games started are just above 25.
If we are conservative and estimate 80 pitches per start, that allows for 2000
pitches thrown, so 200 would represent roughly 10% of the pitcher’s arsenal.
With that background information now covered, let’s look at the best and
worst pitchers in each pitch type. All data is accurate through August 22.
BP为八种球路提供了 PitchF/X 排行，包括了四缝线速球，伸卡，卡特，指叉，变速，曲
球，滑球以及蝴蝶球。在本篇文章中我只考虑了先发投手，以及使用过该球路超过两百次
以上者。目前联盟先发最多者略多于 25 次，如果我们保守一点假设每次先发只用 80 球
，那么我们会有 2000 球的资料，所以 200 球表示了大约 10 %的使用率。解释过选择标
准后，我们就来看看各种球路最好跟最差的吧，以下资料到八月22日为止：
Data
Four-Seam Fastball
Pitcher Team TB/H
Jarrod Cosart HOU 1.20
Tyler Chatwood COL 1.20
Stephen Fife LAD 1.22
Bartolo Colon OAK 1.26
Joe Kelly STL 1.26
Lucas Harrell HOU 2.33
Todd Redmond TOR 2.20
Allen Webster BOS 2.20
Tyler Skaggs ARI 2.15
Erik Bedard HOU 2.10
Sinker
Pitcher Team TB/H
Brandon Cumpton PIT 1.10
Taylor Jordan WSH 1.10
John Lackey BOS 1.21
Gerrit Cole PIT 1.22
Jon Pettibone PHI 1.22
Wade Davis KCR 1.22
Yu Darvish TEX 2.27
Bud Norris BAL 2.12
Aaron Harang SEA 1.96
Scott Kazmir CLE 1.93
Jon Lester BOS 1.92
Cutter
Pitcher Team TB/H
Clay Buchholz BOS 1.11
Jenrry Mejia NYM 1.17
Lucas Harrell HOU 1.20
Jonathon Niese NYM 1.21
Mike Pelfrey MIN 1.31
Jeff Samardzija CHC 2.00
Jerome Williams LAA 1.95
Cole Hamels PHI 1.90
A.J. Griffin OAK 1.86
Yu Darvish TEX 1.85
Splitter
Pitcher Team TB/H
Hiroki Kuroda NYY 1.22
Jake Westbrook STL 1.31
Jorge dela Rosa COL 1.32
Doug Fister DET 1.33
Hisashi Iwamuka SEA 1.33
Ubaldo Jimenez CLE 1.72
Tim Hudson ATL 1.70
Dan Haren WSH 1.69
Tim Lincecum SFG 1.61
Jason Marquis SDP 1.58
Changeup
Pitcher Team TB/H
Stephen Strasburg WSH 1.00
Matt Harvey NYM 1.06
Gio Gonzalez WSH 1.10
Francisco Liriano PIT 1.14
Bud Norris BAL 1.22
John Danks CHW 2.21
Jeremy Hefner NYM 1.96
Dan Straily OAK 1.91
Randall Delgado ARI 1.89
Edinson Volquez SDP 1.87
Curveball
Pitcher Team TB/H
Clayton Kershaw LAD 1.00
Jason Hammel BAL 1.00
C.J. Wilson LAA 1.07
Dillon Gee NYM 1.14
Max Scherzer DET 1.17
Homer Bailey CIN 2.33
Zack Greinke LAD 2.09
Wandy Rodriguez PIT 2.00
Tim Hudson ATL 2.00
John Lackey BOS 2.00
Slider
Pitcher Team TB/H
Tyson Ross SDP 1.00
Jordan Zimmermann WSH 2.24
Jorge de la Rosa COL 1.17
Wade Miley ARI 2.07
Bartolo Colon OAK 1.18
Dallas Keuchel HOU 2.06
Jeremy Hefner NYM 1.24
Carlos Villanueva CHC 2.06
C.J. Wilson LAA 1.24
Hisashi Iwamuka SEA 1.96
最后，为了完整
Knuckleball
Pitcher Team TB/H
R.A. Dickey TOR 1.68
Combining all that data together, we get the following five pitches as the
best in baseball so far.
综合以上资料，我们得到一下五种球路为目前棒球界最佳。
Pitcher Team Pitch TB/H
Stephen Strasburg WSH Changeup 1.00
Clayton Kershaw LAD Curveball 1.00
Jason Hammel BAL Curveball 1.00
Tyson Ross SDP Slider 1.00
Matt Harvey NYM Changeup 1.06
Also, to complete the picture, here are the worst five pitches in baseball so
far.
同时，最差的五种球路。
Pitcher Team Pitch TB/H
Lucas Harrell HOU Four-Seam 2.33
Homer Bailey CIN Curveball 2.33
Yu Darvish TEX Sinker 2.27
Jordan Zimmermann WSH Slider 2.24
John Danks CHW Changeup 2.21
Analysis
As you can see, there are a lot of “good” pitchers that throw “lousy”
pitches. This metric is far from perfect. For example, Yu Darvish appears in
the bottom five in two different categories. Does that mean Darvish should
stop throwing his sinker and cutter? No, it most certainly does not. It just
shows that when Darvish makes a (albeit rare) mistake with either pitch hitters
are mashing it. I found this a fun exercise that yielded results that may not
be the most meaningful but that are interesting for discussion nonetheless.
如你所见，有很多 "好投手" 使用"烂球路"。我们采用的标准显然还有许多不足，举例来
说，达比修有两种球路背排在倒数五名，这代表达比修应该不要再丢伸卡跟卡特球了吗？
当然不是。这只是表示了达比修这两种球路一旦失投，都被尻得很惨。想关研究是一个有
趣的问题，尽管结果不完美，问题本身却有很多讨论的空间很意义。
http://ppt.cc/Kjs2
感谢大家支持，故翻译这篇