Swinging or taking on the first pitch
by James Gentile
August 23, 2013
Swinging at the first pitch can be a bit of a controversial topic in some
corners of the baseball world. To many fans, the practice of casually watching
strike one float through the heart of the zone again and again seems
ridiculous. But for certain players, like Hall of Famer Wade Boggs and more
recently Minnesota's Joe Mauer, laying off the first pitch is a fundamental
tenet of their approach at the plate.
是否要挥第一球在棒球界是个颇具争议性议题。对很多球迷来说，看着第一球直穿好球带
中心而不挥击是件荒谬的事情，但是对部分球员来说，比如说名人堂球星 Wade Boggs 跟
近代的大明星 Joe Mauer，放过第一球是个他们打击策略的基本原则。
Recently, the wonderful data-crunchers at FanGraphs showed us that swing rate
on first pitch has dropped significantly since 1988, when pitch sequence data
first became publicly available. In recent seasons batters have offered at the
first pitch just 26 percent of the time, compared to the far more aggressive
rate of 33 percent from the late '80s.
最近，FanGraph的数据蒐击者们统计显示，打者挥击第一球的比率自从 1988 年后大幅的
下滑。最近几个球季，打者攻击第一球的机率是 26%，相较于 80 年代的 33%有着显著的
差异
。
This shouldn't really surprise us, since there has been a definite movement
toward patience at the plate in the last few decades. Tom Verducci famously
bemoaned this loss of hitter aggressiveness earlier this season, and many
continue to echo his concerns.
大家应该都不会对此惊讶，毕竟过去十多年来，强调选球跟耐心的浪潮不断冲击棒球界。
Tom Verducci早前的文章感叹了现在打者越来越被动，而他的看法收到许多回响。
But batters have consistently shown that laying off that first pitch can lead
to better results— or, more accurately, better results are observed in cases
where the batter did not swing at the first pitch. From 1988-2012, the ultimate
wOBA of all plate appearances where the batter swung at first pitch has
remained consistently lower than those when batter did not offer at the first
opportunity:
但是打者们用成绩告诉我们放掉第一球可以带给他们更好的结果，数据显示不打第一球时
打者的成绩却实较佳。在 1988 到 2012 年间，攻击第一球的 ultimate wOBA都持续的低
于放过第一球。
Obviously, most of the "advantage" of laying off first pitch we're seeing here
is generated by those at-bats in which the batter takes a ball on first pitch.
Getting a 1-0 advantage on the pitcher right away creates an enormous
difference on the ultimate fate of the batter-pitcher showdown.
从图表中很名显的，放过第一球带来的优是主要来自于第一球是坏球且被放掉时。0 好 1
坏的球数落后对于投打对决带来了巨大的差异。
So, naturally, taking a called strike on first pitch leads to fewer favorable
outcomes for hitters than taking a ball. But swinging at that first pitch leads
to better results than falling behind 0-1 on a taken called strike.
当然了，放过第一球但结果是好球就没那么大的好处了。数据显示第一球是好球时大胆挥
击，结果往往好于放过去让球数落后。
Let's not forget that BABIP on 0-0 counts is fairly high when compared to other
counts. Perhaps pitchers tend to groove first pitch more often to get ahead,
perhaps they take a little off their velocity, perhaps the cut flattens out a
bit (this is certainly an interesting idea for a PITCHf/x study for another
day). Whatever the case, swinging at first pitch seems to give a hitter better
odds than falling into an 0-1 deficit.
不要忘了攻击第一球的 BABIP相较于在其他球数下挥击高了许多。或许投手们为了拿到球
数领先在投球时较为大胆。或许球速放慢点，或许尾劲不会催的那么强 (这是个值得研究
的好问题)不论如何，攻击第一球似乎都比落后一个好球队打者来说更为有利。
Outliers
There are always outliers. A few players in the last few decades have actually
fared worse when they swung at the first pitch than when they fell in the 0-1
hole. The five most dramatic cases from 2002-2012 are as follows:
凡事总有例外。过去数十年，有几名打者挥击第一个好球时的成绩差逾放过去而在球数上
落后。2002到 2012 年间差距最大的五名球员：
# Name PA First pitch swing% wOBA first pitch swinging wOBA_first pi
called strike Difference
1 Aaron Guiel 1098 15.8% 0.233 0.330 -0.097
2 Reggie Willits 1011 7.1% 0.182 0.271 -0.089
3 Roberto Alomar 1435 18.8% 0.250 0.328 -0.078
4 Charles Johnson 1106 36.5% 0.285 0.360 -0.075
5 Jamey Carroll 3965 11.1% 0.235 0.299 -0.064
Strangely, both Charles Johnson and Roberto Alomar actually had higher wOBAs
when taking first pitch strike than when taking first pitch balls! (Though for
Alomar, this is including only the last few seasons of his career. His splits
make more sense when looking at his over 9,000 plate appearances). As much as
I'd love to say we've discovered some mutant-like batting styles, it's more
likely that these oddities would have corrected themselves with more at-bats.
奇怪的是，Charles Johnson 跟 Roberto Alomar 放过第一个坏球时的表现比放过第一个
好球时糟。( 尽管对于 Alomar 来说，这项数据只涵盖了她最后几个球季，如果考虑到更
大的样本空间，那么情况变得合理许多) 。尽管我很想说我们发现了什么打击型态上的奥
秘，但这个奇怪的情况很可能在更多打数后自然就消失了。
Lowest first strike swing rates
You may have noticed that Reggie Willits, who just barely made the minimum
1,000 plate appearances required in the previous table, showed the most
patience of that group, with a minuscule first pitch swing rate of just seven
percent. This is actually an historic number, just barely edging out notorious
first-pitch-o-phobe Wade Boggs. From 1988-2012 the lowest rates belong to:
你可能注意到了 Reggie Willits ，他勉强答到了 1000 打席的门槛进入了上面那个表格
，在上述五名球员中是最有耐心的，挥击第一球比率低到只有7%。事实上这个数字非常惊
人，甚至低于以打死不会第一球著名的 Wade Boggs 。在 1988 到 2012 年间挥击第一球
比率最低的是
# Name PA First pitch swing%
1 Reggie Willits 1011 7.1%
2 Wade Boggs 6490 7.7%
3 Brett Gardner 1617 8.4%
4 J.J. Hardy 3937 8.4%
5 Ben Revere 1062 8.7%
6 Jeff Frye 2319 9.3%
7 Joe Mauer 4462 9.8%
8 Brian Downing 2411 9.9%
9 Jason Kendall 5322 10.2%
10 Franklin Gutierrez 2629 10.5%
Boggs was certainly ahead of his time, ranking at the top of this list with
over 6,000 eligible plate appearences and all of them occurring before the turn
of the century. Only Brian Downing is similarly a member of this unique club
while also debuting almost two decades before the rest of the group. Other
active and famously patient hitters like Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia just
barely missed making the top ten.
Boggs 显然超出了他的时代，他的 6000 个打席都是在新世纪前的事情。只有 Brian
Downing 跟他一样比表中其他人早了将近 20 年。另外几个以耐心著名的打者如 Kevin
Youkillis跟 Dustin Pedroia 以些微的差距落榜。
Who should swing more at the first pitch?
I want to briefly draw attention again to Mauer, number seven on the previous
table. Despite being one of the most averse to swinging at first pitches, with
a rate under 10 percent, he's one of the rare examples of a hitter who seems to
fare better when he does swing at them.
我想要回头看一下 Joe Mauer，表中的第七名。尽管那么少挥击第一球，他是少数挥击第
一球的数据比不挥时好的球员。
I briefly touched upon the possibility of this sort of phenomenon in one of my
earliest posts here at Hardball Times, when I looked at wOBA on contact for
players who rarely put the ball in play on first pitches.
我简单的回顾一下我之前的文章，有关极少挥击第一球的打者他们击球后的 wOBA。
When looking at the nearly 600 batters with at least 1,000 plate appearances
from 2002-2012, Mauer's improvement of .038 wOBA points is the 17th highest of
that group. Yet, he's one of only two players to maintain that disparity in
over 2,000 plate appearances, and the only batter to do so with a first pitch
swing rate below 15 percent.
我观察了 2002 到 2012 年间将近 600名至少 1000 打席的打者，Mauer 挥击第一球的
wOBA 高出了 .038 ，在所有同类球员终排第 17 。但是，他是仅有的两名出现此类现象
且超过2000 打席球员的球员之一，也是唯一一个挥击第一球比率低于 15%的打者。
So what does this mean? Should Mauer try swinging at more first pitches? It
seems plausible to me that pitchers would not expect him to swing considering
his reputation. His ability to surprise pitchers on first pitch is an
advantage, but could he harness the potential of this ambush even more?
所以这代表什么呢？Mauer 应该更积极得挥第一球？对我来说，这个现象主要来自于他不
挥第一球的名声带给投手的影响。那么，这个情况可以推广吗？
When I looked at the 32 batters from that same 2002-2012 time frame with a
first pitch swing rate below 15 percent and 1,000 PA, I found that the group
had an average wOBA .026 points lower than when they were taking on 0-0. So
Mauer is clearly unique in this regard.
我找了 2002 到 2012 年间超过 1000 打席且挥第一球比率低于 15%的打者共 32 人，这
群人打第一球时的 wOBA 比不打射低了 .026 ，可以说 Mauer显然是个特例中的特例。
Most players who saw this much advantage swinging at the first pitch had much
more robust first pitch swing rates. Buster Posey is one notable example of this
—he swings at over 26 percent of 0-0 pitches, but his wOBA is .037 points
higher when doing so.
大多数挥击第一球数据较佳的球员打第一球的比率都比 Mauer高出许多。以 Buster
Posey 为例，他挥击第一球的比率超过 26%，而他挥击第一球时的 wOBA 较不挥时高出
.037。
Highest first pitch swing rates
Of course it takes all shapes and sizes in baseball, and certain hitters have
had considerable success when hacking immediately. From 2002-2012 the top 10
are as follows:
当然了，棒球充满各种变化和可能性。自然也有积极挥击的球员有着成功的生涯，2002到
2012年挥击比率最高的前十名。
# Name PA First pitch swing% wOBA swinging wOBA taking D
1 Vladimir Guerrero 5866 48.2% 0.356 0.404 0.048
2 Wily Mo Pena 1841 47.9% 0.295 0.345 0.05
3 Nomar Garciaparra 3328 47.4% 0.342 0.361 0.019
4 Randall Simon 1165 46.6% 0.319 0.297 -0.022
5 Delmon Young 3547 45.8% 0.304 0.333 0.029
6 Josh Hamilton 3110 45.5% 0.373 0.389 0.016
7 Johnny Estrada 1901 44.0% 0.321 0.309 -0.012
8 Jose Molina 2166 44.0% 0.274 0.272 -0.002
9 Jeff Francoeur 4664 43.9% 0.306 0.321 0.015
10 Pablo Sandoval 2275 43.7% 0.334 0.371 0.037
I bet you guessed Vlad Guerrero would place first and I bet you're not
surprised you were right. Vlad still saw more success when taking than
offering, despite the fact that he went after that first pitch a mind-blowing
48 percent of the time. In fact, most of these hitters fared better when
taking, with the exceptions of Estrada, Simon and Molina (who showed virtually
no split at all).
我想大家都会猜 Vlad Guerrero会是第一名，而不意外的他也的确是第一。事实上数据显
示 Vlad 不挥第一球时的数据较佳，尽管他挥第一球比率高达 48%。但现实中，这类球员
放过第一球时的数据都较佳，仅有的例外是 Estrada, Simon 以及 Molina。
If it's not broke, don't fix it?
For players who showed the most improvement when swinging rather than taking,
the Cardinals' David Freese was at the top of the list with a .077 boost in his
wOBA. Other notable players with similar massive split favoring an early hack
include Gaby Sanchez, Gerardo Parra, Danny Espinosa and the aforementioned
Buster Posey.
对于那些在挥第一球时表现较佳的球员中，红雀的 David Freese ，是当中的佼佼者，他
的 wOBA 高出了整整 .077 。其他类似的球员包括了 Gaby Sanchez, Gerardo Parra,
Danny Espinosa还有之前提过的 Buster Posey 。
Interestingly, the focus of Verducci's article was on Dustin Ackley, and how
the Mariners' preaching patience at the plate was "getting in these kids'
heads." Ackley was right behind Freese with a healthy .067 wOBA improvement.
有趣的是，Verducci那篇抱怨现代打者太被动的文章主要在谈 Dustin Ackley，还有水手
对于耐心选球理念的宣扬是如何影响了该名球员。但是 Ackley 的 wOBA 其实高出了
.067 。
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/swinging-or-taking-on-the-first-pitch/