Five questions: Colorado Rockies
by Derek Ambrosino
March 14, 2013
原文: http://0rz.tw/ZAAjV
: It wasn’t that long ago that the Colorado Rockies looked like a trendy
: sleeper pick to win what seemed to a mediocre NL West; I believe I picked
: them to win that division two years ago. Fast forward to today and their best
: player is a perennial injury risk and their rotation has morphed from
: interesting, young, and with upside to a mix of question marks and train
: wrecks.
还记得不久前，洛矶队看起来像是能够在弱小国西胜出的球队。精确一点来说，2年前的
开季我预测他们能拿下这个分区。醒醒吧，洛矶球迷，今天你们最好的球员动不动就受伤
你们的轮值乍看之下年轻充满希望，结果每个投手都不稳定，甚至爆炸。
: Colorado should be operating with a multi-year plan in mind, using this
: season to transition from some veterans, explore various options to acquire
: pitching talent, and derive definitive opinions on its younger position
: players.
洛矶队要时常把长期建构蓝图放在心中，本季应试着把老将交易出去，提升投手深度。
另外，也要从年轻野手中寻找长期的答案
(译按:此处应是指野手阵容卡著两张大约，很难再从FA挖重砲。因此更加需要年轻野手
能够成为全队长期支柱。让剩下的薪资空间可以拿来签投手)
: The questions I’ve posed below are a bit about this year, but they are also
: about the big picture—what has to happen in 2013 to position the Rockies to
: re-emerge as contenders in the near future?
我以下所列的问题，只有一部分跟今年有关。洛矶队的重点应放在未来：究竟这支球队
今年要达成什么目标，才能在短时间内重返竞争季后赛之林?
What to do about the pitching staff?
投手阵容怎么样?
: While I want to speak big picture, we can’t ignore the present. The first
: thing that strikes me about the Rockies is their complete lack of a reliable
: pitching staff. While there are some holes and question marks in the lineup,
: the factor pushing down the ceiling of this team with phenomenal force is a
: dearth of pitching skill and depth. Last season, the Rockies abandoned
: convention and went to an approach in which starting pitchers were capped 75
: pitches—not out of a need to protect them, but in an attempt to harvest some
: modicum of efficacy, even if for only three or four innings. In 2013, they
: plan to keep this approach, and even refine it, pairing starters with long
: relievers.
虽然我们放眼未来，但是不可以忽略当前情势。首先，洛矶队完全没有可靠的投手，这点
让我很震惊。虽然这支球队的打线也有些问题，但真正会让战绩一蹶不振的关键绝对是
好投手不够多。上一季，洛矶队放弃传统5人轮值，搞出4人轮值，先发只能投75球的新招
(译按：以为是在玩WBC吗? 怒!)注意喔，这不是因为教练团要保护投手，而是在短短3-4局
内，能够让投手的威力得以发挥。在2013年，球团打算继续乱搞，坚持我们有我们的玩法
，甚至要把先发跟长中继配成对，一起出赛。
(...................................)
: This actually is not far from an interesting strategy I had always wanted to
: see the Rockies try, except my idea would have been implemented by design and
: not out of desperation. I always thought building a staff out of middle
: relievers and swing men, putting most hands on deck each night, constantly
: playing match-ups, and adding a de facto rotating DH by virtually never
: allowing the pitcher to hit would be an interesting approach to maximize
: Colorado’s inherent biases. But they have neither the tools for my Veeck-ian
: experiment, not a successful outcome from a conventional approach.
看起来有够怪，但其实这是一个很有意思的策略，我一直以来都希望洛矶队试试看。不过
我不乐见球队在没有详细规画之下，就让4人轮值草创实施，只因为他们走投无路，死马当
活马医。依我之见，应该将比赛中段的中继，跟能够先发后援两头跑的投手，组成一个
坚强的牛棚，每晚勤于调度，视对战球队的打者不断换投。这样的话就能够避免投手
打击，另外安排一组打者轮流代打，权充DH的脚色。这是一个有趣的办法，可以让裤儿湿
极端打者球场的特性得以发挥。但是这支球队一直没有够好的投手来尝试我的实验，去年
的四人轮值也没有获得该有的功效。
: Jorge De la Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin once held appeal as fantasy sleepers, and
: Drew Pomeranz boasts youth and impressive stuff, but at this point every
: pitcher slated in the Rockies' starting rotation would have to overcome the
: odds to compile league-average numbers.
洛矶队的轮值有谁呢? JDLR与Chacin，这两位曾经FB后段可以期待的潜力股。还有年轻、
有很好stuff的Pomeranz。不过现在看起来，每位表定在轮值内的先发，都必须竭尽全力，
才能交出联盟平均水准的数据 (译按: 4-man rotation sucks!)
Can their young stars stay healthy?
年轻巨星能战否?
: A healthy Troy Tulowitzki is a potential MVP-level player, and not many
: teams can boast one of those. The problem is that Tulo has played 140 games
: or more in only three of the previous six seasons. Carlos Gonzalez is also a
: force to be reckoned with, but he’s missed an average of roughly 30 games
: per season over his last three. There are some intriguing young bats in the
: Rockies' lineup, but without these two sluggers as the backbone of the offense
: —and defense, in the case of Tulo—the Rockies won’t have the firepower to
: slug their way to overcome their dreadful pitching staff.
不是很多球队都有够格拿MVP的选手，健康的Troy Tulowitzki绝对有这个实力。不过
过去6个球季，Tulo打超过140场的只有3季，伤痛问题堪忧。MVP候选人也不要忘了Carlos
Gonzalez，不过他过去三季也平均每季缺席30场。洛矶队打线年轻充满活力，但如果攻守
两端缺少这两位超级巨星，打击火力就不足以弥补投手群的大量掉分。
(译按：看看去年就知道了...)
When does the next generation arrive, and will they “arrive?”
明日之星在哪里，他们会来吗?
: Although 2013 looks bleak overall for the Rockies, the season is not without
: hope, especially on individual levels. Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario and Josh
: Rutledge are all players who, if they continue to take steps forward, can
: cement themselves as valuable and viable pieces of a playoff-caliber team.
: These are the types of young, relatively inexpensive producers the team needs
: to position itself to make noise in the near future.
尽管洛矶队的2013球季看来只有一个惨字，但球迷也不要放弃得太早，还有一些球员值得
期待。Dexter Fowler, Wilin Rosario和Josh Rutledge，如果能百尺竿头，更进一步，
便能成为季后赛强队也不可或缺的要角。他们年轻又不贵，可以让球队在近几年内当一个
搅局者。
: On the pitching side, Pomeranz and Rex Brothers are potential bright spots,
: while at age 24, Chacin has the potential to right himself quickly and
: reclaim the label of a promising young arm with weak two- to solid
: three-starter potential?
至于投手，同样24岁的Pomeranz跟Brothers有机会冒出头。Chacin有机会修正去年的低潮
重回期待投手的行列，并将落矶轮值补强吗? (译按：这里不太确定是什么意思)
: Other names that might make a mark in 2013 include Tyler Colvin and Nolan
: Arenado.
另外别忘了Tyler Colvin跟Nolan Arenado，他们有机会在2013年有所发挥。
: Colvin is slated to begin the season as a back-up, but will likely get ample
: time as a fourth outfielder and will find his way into the lineup when the
: annual Todd Helton injury takes place. Arenado will most likely begin the
: season in the minors, but has been one of the game's more touted offensive
: prospects for a while, despite seeing his stock drop a bit after a
: disappointing 2012. He has a pretty poor defensive rep at third base, but
: Chris Nelson is penciled in as the team’s starter at the hot corner and he
: turned in a -2.1 defensive WAR in 2012, so if Arenado can mash, he’s likely
: no worse with the glove than the status quo.
Colvin表定开季从板凳出发，以四号外野手找些零星时间出赛，不过当每年都会发生的
Helton大叔受伤时，他的机会就来了。Arenado曾经是最受期待的打击新秀，不过因为2012
年打得不够亮眼，期待度略微下滑，预计从小联盟开季。听说他三垒守的不太好，不过
看看本季洛矶队预计先发三垒手，Chris Nelson去年防守WAR只有-2.1...恩，只要Arenado
你不要守太烂还是可以上得来。
What will they sell, and what will they get for it?
跳楼大拍卖囉! 该卖什么? 能拿到什么?
: Ignoring for the moment the rumors of a potential pre- or midseason Tulo
: trade, the Rockies still have some pieces that I could easily see contenders
: coming to call for come midseason.
先不提Tulo可能被交易的谣言，洛矶队季中仍然会是要抢进季后赛球队觊觎的对象。
: I’ve always liked Michael Cuddyer; his versatility and above-average stick,
: along with a perfectly tolerable $21 million over two years could make a nice
: addition to many a contender. This move would make even more sense if Colvin
: starts to distinguish himself and proves deserving of regular playing time.
Michael Cuddyer一直是不错的球员：能够站很多位置，棒子也高于平均。更重要的是，
两年21M不算太肥的合约，相信会是强队乐于补强的目标。对于洛矶队来说，如果Colvin
能够证明他可以站稳外野先发，那么就更有本钱交易Cuddyer了。
: By the same token, Rafael Betancourt will draw a ton of interest, as a fully
: capable closer and overqualified set-up man making $4.25 million in 2013 with
: an option for 2014. In fact, Betancourt is such a bargain that I think this
: is the reason why he didn’t get dealt last year or in the offseason. He’s a
: high-quality player whose departure would not shed much salary. But,
: realistically, his contract window doesn’t align with the next potential
: crest of the Rockies, so it would make sense to dangle him as potentially the
: top reliever prize of the deadline and extract a legitimate asset or two.
以此类推，Rafael Betancourt也会是市场大热门。Betancourt完全可以胜任终结者的角色
如果你是洋基队还可以把它当Setup用。这么好用的投手多贵呢? 不贵今年才4.25M，明年
甚至还有option。我想就是因为Betancourt这么赞，球队才没在去年季中或季后把他交易
掉。他的离开将会造成球队巨大的损失，薪资也省不到哪去。但是，现实一点吧，几年后
洛矶会被Tulo跟Gonzalez绑住，没有多的钱来留Betancourt，倒不如以顶级后援投手的价
码把他卖掉，在交易日前再换几个大物来。
What would a successful 2013 look like?
欸...洛矶今年怎样算是成功?
: Success looks different for different teams. While anything short of winning
: a playoff series may be a disappointment for teams like the Dodgers, Yankees
: or Angels, for a team like the Rockies, a reasonable goal is to be in a
: better place than they are now come next spring. This will be achieved by
: seeing young players develop, as well as by exchanging higher paid veterans
: whose peaks don’t fit the trajectory of the team for younger assets,
: hopefully of the pitching variety.
成功对不同球队的定义会不一样。对于道奇、洋基或天使这种强队来说，没进季后赛球迷
肯定会很失望。不过对今年的洛矶队，重点应放在加强战力，让明年开季的阵容更好。
年轻球员不断的成长，或是将高薪的球员拿去换潜力新秀，让投手阵容多一些希望，对于
洛矶队来说就算成功了。
: Seeing Tulo play a full season, Wilin Rosario prove 2012 was not a fluke,
: Dexter Fowler become a borderline star, Rex Brothers solidify himself as a
: fearsome reliever, and Drew Pomeranz show at least consistent glimpses of
: what made him a top-25 prospect are all things that I’d consider more
: important than actual final season record. Remember, Tulo and Cargo are
: locked up long term, the philosophy in 2013 should be to avoid the temptation
: to be penny-wise and pound-foolish.
(1) Tulo能够健康打满整季
(2) Rosario没有二年级症
(3) Fowler成为准明星
(4) Rex Brothers上场时就准备唱晚安曲
(5) Pomeranz证明他曾是超级新秀的身手
以上这几件事我认为比今年的最终战绩更重要。记住，Tulo跟Cargo都被球队砸大钱绑长约
因此最不该犯的错误，就是今年把小钱省下，却在来年把球队的payroll给拖垮了!