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1:30AM EST November 16. 2012 - The statistical revolution that's permeating
the baseball world hasn't won widespread acceptance just yet.
Sure, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young
Awards in 2009 and 2010 with less-than-stellar win totals. But the 2012 AL
MVP race was the first major litmus test for the kind of in-depth analysis
that's already taking place in virtually every major league front office.
That's why it's so puzzling to see the Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout debate
fall largely along the lines of "baseball people" vs. "statheads" – but with
the roles seemingly reversed.
The traditionalists cling to their cherished stats (particularly batting
average and RBI), while the sabermetricians prefer to consider a player's
overall contributions (including baserunning and defense).
It's up to the 28 individual voters to determine their own definition of
value, but where this year's writers got it wrong is that value in one
particular area shouldn't trump value in many different areas.
Miguel Cabrera led the AL in batting average, home runs and RBI this season,
becoming the first player to win the Triple Crown since 1967. He also played
for a Detroit Tigers team that won the Central Division title.
But are those the things that really matter the most when it comes to
determining the most valuable player? What if Josh Hamilton or Curtis
Granderson had hit two more home runs and prevented Cabrera from winning the
Triple Crown? What if the Chicago White Sox win four more games and Cabrera's
Tigers don't make the playoffs?
Without Cabrera's performance changing even one bit, the two major points in
his MVP case come tumbling down if another player or another team had been
able to perform just a little bit better.
Now Cabrera is clearly a deserving candidate for MVP – and it's a shame he'd
never won before, despite finishing in the top five in five of the past seven
seasons – but take away all of the outside factors and it's clear Mike Trout
simply had the better overall season.
It's important to note that Cabrera and Trout are two different types of
players, so it makes one-to-one comparisons more difficult. But let's try.
Batting average is great but on-base percentage is better. While Cabrera did
lead the AL with a .330 average, Trout finished ahead of Cabrera in on-base
percentage (.399 to .393).
By winning the Triple Crown, Cabrera did something that hadn't been done in
45 years … but by scoring 129 runs and stealing 49 bases (both tops in the
majors) in addition to hitting 30 homers, Trout did something this season
that had never been done in baseball history. By anyone.
Offensively, the two were clearly the two best at what they do this season.
But we haven't even considered what the players have done on defense.
Trout's speed allows him to cover a tremendous amount of ground in the
outfield. He made several memorable catches and according to Fangraphs.com,
Trout's defensive skills saved the Angels 21 runs over the course of the
season. Many experts even felt he deserved a Gold Glove in center field.
While Cabrera deserves credit for moving from first base to third base and
enable the Tigers to sign Prince Fielder, he was a liability there
defensively. He cost the Tigers an estimated four runs more than an average
third baseman, according to Fangraphs and the defensive metric Ultimate Zone
Rating had Cabrera ranked as the worst full-time third baseman in the majors.
If we try to put everything together, the traditionalists start unloading
their heavy artillery. (Yes, now it's time to bring up WAR.)
Baseball experts have spent decades trying to find a way to quantify all of a
player's contributions and boil it down into one number. The best measurement
we have right now is what's known as Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
There are different ways to calculate it, mostly because of the difficulty of
evaluating defense. But in every instance, Trout's all-around game puts him
ahead of Cabrera. Baseball-Reference.com has Trout atop the AL at 10.7 and
Cabrera fourth at 6.9. Fangraphs.com has Trout first at 10.0 and Cabrera
third at 7.1.
Finally, the argument that Cabrera carried his team to the playoffs is the
weakest of them all. Again, he had a great season and he hit .333 in
September with 11 homers and 30 RBI as the Tigers won the division title.
But the Tigers finished with an 88-74 record and .543 winning percentage and
were aided in their playoff push by the White Sox's late-season collapse.
Meanwhile, the Angels (89-73, .549) actually won more games than the Tigers,
but finished third in the powerful AL West.
Trout's season is even more impressive because it came against tougher
competition. In fact, the Angels were 6-14 the day before Trout was promoted
from the minors, but went 83-59 (.585) the rest of the way with him.
The fact that the Angels may have just missed the playoffs because they
didn't have Trout for that first month may even be the best argument for why
should have been the AL's most valuable player.